Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

farmerge said:

Certainly happy not to be living in the Garden State.

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yeah well I think victoria's actually the youngest state in the country so that healthcare vs everything else imbalance is actually the best case scenario you'll see, the rest are even worse.

MY ALMONDS ARE BEING ACTIVATED

over9k said:

The victorian government

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The question I'll raise is what interest rate are those figures based on?

Given how low interest rates have been in recent times, there's a risk that anyone borrowing has based their decisions on an assumption, likely to be proven false in my view, that the past few years is in some way "normal".

What happens when rates rise?

Smurf1976 said:

past few years

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Do you mean post-invasion or post-gfc pre-invasion?

over9k said:

Do you mean post-invasion or post-gfc pre-invasion?

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Just thinking of the past few years in general.

We've had a period of interest rates being low when compared to that seen in previous eras and it has persisted long enough that a lot of borrowers quite likely think it's permanent.

My own world view, which is of course speculative and unproven, being that we're in a secular bull market in interest rates. They'll go up and down but the broad trend will be up over the next few decades is my thinking. Just the view I've formed based on the sum total of what I've read and listened to both on this forum and elsewhere.

Smurf1976 said:

My own world view, which is of course speculative and unproven, being that we're in a secular bull market in interest rates. They'll go up and down but the broad trend will be up over the next few decades is my thinking.

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Long dated bonds agree with you

“In 2007, the gross debt was around $54 billion; it’s now $962 billion as of today,” Mr Burshtein told Sky News host Danica De Giorgio.

“That’s an average increase of about $50 billion a year for the last 18 years … how did we do it? Very simply, the government spent more than we earned.”



It's a sky news segment so they're waxing lyrical about this being a labor party thing but the libs were shite when they were in power as well, it's not unique to labor.

See previous posts about microchips.

And the fact that it's in texas is telling

The latest employment figures will be unlikely to please Trump.
Someone else may have to get fired.
Although I guess he could say its just the illegals losing their job.
the fact that June's already paltry jobs gain was revised lower to a negative figure was a big jolt.
First negative print since 2020.
be pretty hard for the Fed not to reduce rates, maybe even a 50bPS reduction.

Bond markets have priced a cut in as a certainty.

And markets drop despite the drop in bond yields. Markets are jittery.

Markets are jittery for a reason.

mullokintyre said:

The latest employment figures will be unlikely to please Trump.
Someone else may have to get fired.
Although I guess he could say its just the illegals losing their job.
the fact that June's already paltry jobs gain was revised lower to a negative figure was a big jolt.
First negative print since 2020.
be pretty hard for the Fed not to reduce rates, maybe even a 50bPS reduction.
View attachment 207796

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well, while not publicised that way, Trump economic plan does rewuire inflation, high one..so the reason he wants lower rates.
in a twisted way, it is a win for him if the Fed slashes rates.
usd down, inflation up so reducing the debt and a boost to economy
The real issue remaining the debt and ability to fund it, to rollover bonds, let alone fund further deficits

this is a bigger problem than Trump.... from Global Market Update

Live Now, Pay Never​

By Ed D'Agostino | 05 September, 2025

I’m a fan of anecdotal data. We have no shortage of hard data in the macro world. From new jobs figures, interest rate changes, earnings reports, inflation readings… data bombards us every day. And oftentimes, the statistics can be presented in a way that supports any conclusion you wish.

In the end, too much information is the same as having none. There’s a reason why Joe Kennedy’s “stock tips from the shoeshine boy” story still resonates.

Much of the data we see today indicates the economy is fine. Stocks continue making new highs. Consumer spending is shattering records. Unemployment rates remain low. Yet a single anecdote can dispel the illusion that everything is truly fine for the average American.

Today’s economic data paints a rosy picture. US consumer spending totaled $16.35 trillion in Q2 2025—its highest level on record. This begs a question or three: Who’s buying? What are they buying? And, more importantly, how are they paying?

The answer is twofold. High-income consumers are carrying overall spending, while large segments of middle- and lower-income Americans are cutting back and foregoing discretionary purchases.
Many of these purchases aren’t going on a credit card, either. Buy now, pay later is the newest way to dress up credit, with more flexible weekly payments instead of a lump sum credit card payment at the end of the month.

“BNPL” companies like Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay, and Splitit have worked with e-commerce sites to integrate these alternative payment options into popular platforms. And they are smart to do so: The latest research says 26% of Americans are more likely to buy something when a vendor offers BNPL.

It’s no surprise that BNPL options increase consumer spending. Monthly BNPL spending grew an incredible 21% from June 2024 to June 2025.

Normally, I would see this as a mixed signal about the average consumer. People are still making discretionary purchases, but they are less able to afford them.

But delinquencies on BNPL loans are rising. And this week saw a sign that the “buy now, pay later” philosophy may be spreading to more essential purchases.

My anecdotal data point? An ad on Yahoo Finance for a “rent now, pay later” service.

Paying Later Is a Fragile Balance​

According to LendingTree, 41% of BNPL users have made at least one late payment in the past year. That’s up from 34% a year ago.

Debt stacking is just as much a problem with “pay later” services as it is with traditional credit cards. 40% of BNPL users have reported having more than one loan at once, with an alarming 23% stating they’ve had three or more active loans.
Traditionally, BNPL companies haven’t reported these loans to the credit bureaus, but Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion are looking to change that. To BNPL lenders, there’s little difference between a responsible consumer and a subprime borrower. What could go wrong?

It gets worse. These loans are increasingly being used for essentials. More users are buying groceries with BNPL loans than ever before—a whopping 25% of all users. That’s up from just 14% last year.

The Shift to Shelter​

Housing and groceries are the last expenses people can cut. Borrowing to cover basic needs is a sign of distress. On the other hand, the profit potential is clear for “pay later” companies looking to offer flexible rent payments.

Rent.app offers a service where you can break your monthly rent down into two payments…for a fee of $9.99 plus 1.5% of the total rent amount. Qira lets renters defer even more—up to 75% of their outstanding balance with a fee of at least 1.5% of the amount deferred.

And RNPL Credit, the company I saw an ad for, offers “M-Loans” for renters to move into a place with $0 down at the time of financing. It all sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
Rent prices are cooling off in some of the hottest markets of the past few years. But that doesn’t mean they are affordable for the average American. Sure, wages have certainly grown…but not as much as rent.
Rental costs have consistently outpaced wage growth for the past 50 years:


This widening gap isn’t just a sign of growing housing unaffordability for the average American. Societally speaking, the chart above also shows us inching closer to an inflection point between the haves and the have-nots.

Under Pressure​

Rising rent and stagnating wages are causing stress. In 2023, half of all renting households (about 22.6 million) were cost-burdened, meaning they are spending over 30% of their income on housing costs. Of those, 27% were “severely burdened,” meaning they spend over half of their income on housing costs.

Demographically, this is affecting younger Americans more than anyone else. And the effects are not equal around the country. Metro areas like Tampa, Miami, and Cape Coral in Florida have cost-burdened renter rates of up to 67%.
This is a bad situation. As I was wrapping up my writing, the jobs report hit. Rick Reider of BlackRock was on Bloomberg, giving his take. He said half of US workers are having a hard time.

He added that the housing market is stuck, but the Fed and Treasury have tools at their disposal that could help bring rates down for home borrowers. That would be welcome relief, but it doesn’t solve the overarching problem of disparity. I don’t see this disparity closing anytime soon, either.
.

^^

qldfrog said:

well, while not publicised that way, Trump economic plan does rewuire inflation, high one..so the reason he wants lower rates.
in a twisted way, it is a win for him if the Fed slashes rates.
usd down, inflation up so reducing the debt and a boost to economy
The real issue remaining the debt and ability to fund it, to rollover bonds, let alone fund further deficits

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As the Golden Haired Trumpet gets results that don't match his wants and then sacks those that are the ones with "the knowledge" he is fast running out of people to blame.
Eventually he will have to realise that the buck lands at his feet.
Who will be left to blame.

farmerge said:

As the Golden Haired Trumpet gets results that don't match his wants and then sacks those that are the ones with "the knowledge" he is fast running out of people to blame.
Eventually he will have to realise that the buck lands at his feet.
Who will be left to blame.

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short answer
" left to blame"
to blame for what?
40y or so of mismanagement?

Antirnator said:

^^

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very sad actually when you think about it

qldfrog said:

very sad actually when you think about it

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I know it is a US thread but do you think Aussie youth is as bad, overall?
Sure you can find single crazy example?
I know they are piling crazy amount on HL but discretionary expenses?
And do bank let them do it, even after Pay companies?
For once I tend to believe our youth is slightly better based on my own circle but this is quite a narrow sample

qldfrog said:

I know it is a US thread but do you think Aussie youth is as bad, overall?
Sure you can find single crazy example?
I know they are piling crazy amount on HL but discretionary expenses?
And do bank let them do it, even after Pay companies?
For once I tend to believe our youth is slightly better based on my own circle but this is quite a narrow sample

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Most have given up and just spend