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Trump Derangement Syndrome

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SirRumpole said:
If Trump insists that people who trade with Iran won't trade with the US, then that's going to put a big hole in our wheat exports. Trumps arrogance has collateral damage yet again.
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Another one is oil. Iran exports about 3 million barrels per day and nobody, including Saudi Arabia, claims to have the capacity to replace that.

So if Iran stops exporting oil then the likely outcome is a price spike followed by a recession affecting most countries including Australia (noting that we're a big importer of oil not an exporter).

My thoughts on all this are that there are two possibilities and I'm neutral as to which is most likely:

1. Trump, or whoever else maybe pulling the strings, really is a fool and doesn't understand the consequences.

2. He knows exactly what the consequences are and expects to profit either financially or politically from it.

If pushed then I'd have a slight bias toward "personal profit" being the motivation for it all. Buy a heap of oil futures and short the shares of every listed airline in the world, impose sanctions on Iran and stop the flow of oil, there's an easy few $billion in profit. If not Trump personally then it's plausible that someone else of relevance is applying that sort of logic - personal profit and to hell with the broader consequences (which would be classic sociopath thinking). That said, I'll accept ignorance as a very plausible alternative explanation.
 
Smurf1976 said:
That said, I'll accept ignorance as a very plausible alternative explanation.
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I think he wasn't kidding when he said America first. And Australia will be worse off for it. He does not care one iota about our economic situation.

I can't see anyone on our government either side with any vision either.
 
Thing is, those "numbers" are only economic ones.

We live in a society, we don't live in an economy, and voters will judge based on many things of which economics is just one.

That's a point often forgotten by the political "Right". Business and the economy is one of the acts but it most certainly isn't the whole show.
 
Smurf1976 said:
We live in a society, we don't live in an economy, and voters will judge based on many things of which economics is just one.
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Sure, unemployment may be low, but a job is a job even at $5 per hour according to some. Job quality is rarely measured and the raw figures cover a multitude of sins (like underemployment).
 
moXJO said:
If a post of mine smells suss, Bas keeps a mile away.
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Oh No!! Completely forget to acknowledge your very special post about being the bestest troll there is.

Yes you are very good Mo. But there is much stiff competition in these threads. Probably need to be a little more poisonous to be up there with the board leaders. (I do remember you ran a particularly viralent post some time ago which managed to tick all the boxes. But I think it was done with a smile...
 
How dare you call me a troll. And only a suboptimal one at that.
 
SirRumpole said:
Sure, unemployment may be low, but a job is a job even at $5 per hour according to some. Job quality is rarely measured and the raw figures cover a multitude of sins (like underemployment).
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Wondering if having two or three jobs is considered 1 job or 3 in the stats.
 
luutzu said:
Wondering if having two or three jobs is considered 1 job or 3 in the stats.
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Good point, but I think if you worked 1 hour a week you were considered "employed", so that counts as one job.

Another reason not to trust the raw data.
 
luutzu said:
Wondering if having two or three jobs is considered 1 job or 3 in the stats.
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It doesn't count the number of jobs. It counts the percentage of people with zero jobs. Someone with 3 jobs counts the same as someone with 1 job.

I'd be embarrassed to ask a question like this in the context of looking at unemployment figures. If out of 100 people 5 don't have jobs at all and are classed as unemployed, and 95 do have jobs and count as employed, it doesn't matter whether the 95 have 95 jobs between them or 950. In no system of calculating unemployment does that change anything.

SirRumpole said:
Good point, but I think if you worked 1 hour a week you were considered "employed", so that counts as one job.

Another reason not to trust the raw data.
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You're nicely displaying the title theme phenomenon.

By all means, look into it as deeply as you like. Unemployment is down no matter how you look at it. You don't boost the economy and GDP and average wage and put tariffs on foreign goods encouraging local manufacturing causing more local manufacturing thus more local jobs, etc etc, without creating more jobs. It's not arguable in any sane sense, it's not marginal, it's big and it's clear and it's obvious and you're clearly suffering from TDS. Apparently it just hurts you to acknowledge that Trump is succeeding in something, and you'll twist things to whatever extent necessary to avoid seeing the reality you don't like. Absolutely classic TDS.

Incredible that TDS has people so desperate that even with such clear and extreme improvement to unemployment, they will try to pretend it doesn't exist, and accuse others of being the ones trying to play with the facts!
 
Sdajii said:
Incredible that TDS has people so desperate that even with such clear and extreme improvement to unemployment, they will try to pretend it doesn't exist, and accuse others of being the ones trying to play with the facts!
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If you have never heard or don't understand the phrase "lies, damn lies and statistics", then you are the one playing with "facts".
 
SirRumpole said:
Nice.
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Sorry about that. It was the teaser before the actual CNN video of the still I posted. The kitchen table it and acknowledge Obama inherited a s#it sandwich, but the net result (according to them) is that Trump has bragging rights.
 
Tisme said:
Sorry about that. It was the teaser before the actual CNN video of the still I posted. The kitchen table it and acknowledge Obama inherited a s#it sandwich, but the net result (according to them) is that Trump has bragging rights.
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Well, I suppose the question is are the results good luck or good management for both Obama and Trump ?

It also will be interesting to see how the US debt and deficit disaster develops and the result that this will have on service delivery and general community contentment. Maybe the midterms will provide some answer, but it's a bit early yet for the company tax cuts and tariff policy to have an effect.
 
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