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Trading the XJO with CFDs

Joules MM1

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nobody at home 7353's the operating upchannel floor about to be tested
breaking the floor (and the break being confirmed on a backtest) would support the 261.8% resistance did complete a
simple running flat bounce, meaning we have completed 1down and 2 up(against the new trend: down)

as per this chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/a71li4Vu/
 

Joules MM1

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10.37pm aest, cfd xjo sentiment, 75% all clients have 84% of avail capital in BTO positions, "top clients" are 81% BTO with 84% of total capital on the long side, that's 19% of players have 14% of the capital on the sell side ...... ok, then, fish dont think they live in water...
 

Joules MM1

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$spx on the sell ...so am i



Julian
@TraderJazzHands
·
Nov 17

10.37pm aest, cfd xjo sentiment, 75% all clients have 84% of avail capital in BTO positions, "top clients" are 81% BTO with 84% of total capital on the long side, that's 19% of players have 14% of the capital on the sell side ...... ok, then, fish dont think they live in water...

xjo https://www.tradingview.com/x/Dciz6fRI/
FEc-yFSVkAE79gs?format=png&name=900x900.png


Julian

@TraderJazzHands

·
9h

4pm cash closed 7385's, 4.11pm SPA closed 7379's, cfd immediately sold, sentiment 'all clients' 81% capital in buy to open, tops clients capital 82% capital in BTO, no fear into the close(!) all hands on one side of the boat(?), cfd (made) market closed 4.30 at 7370
 
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Joules MM1

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xjo overnights printing 7350's 10.37aest
to quote the venerable Lawrence of Atradia "no buying, take no buying"

FEhZYBLUYAICgmf?format=png&name=small.png
 

Joules MM1

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email ...Founder Lawrence G. McMillan has over 35 years of experience trading options and is also well known for his....

Lawrence McMillan
Suddenly, there is once again a wide discrepancy in performance between two of the major indices -- $SPX and $NDX -- and the rest of the stock market. This is reflected by sell signals and negative readings in breadth and put-call ratios. However, the $SPX chart and the indicators involving $VIX and implied volatility remain bullish.

In any case, the $SPX chart is bullish as $SPX closed at another new all-time high on November 18th. There is support at last week's lows, at 4630. Below there, support exists at the old highs, 4525 4550.
In any case, the $SPX chart is bullish as $SPX closed at another new all-time high on November 18th. There is support at last week's lows, at 4630. Below there, support exists at the old highs, 4525 4550.

Equity-only put-call ratios have rolled over to sell signals, as the internal deterioration in the market this week involved a sharp increase in put buying. To the naked eye, the little "curls" on the lower right of the charts in Figures 2 and 3 might just be a wiggle. But the computer analysis programs are quite certain that this is a change of trend and thus a sell signal.

Breadth has been the really negative indicator this week. The last four days have had negative breadth, and that the last two days have been abysmal. This is occurring while $SPX made a new closing high on November 18th. Needless to say, the breadth oscillators are on sell signals, and they are plunging.

In contrast to some of the negative indicators above, implied volatility indicators are mostly positive for stocks. The trend of $VIX remains lower, for example.

In summary, we are holding a "core" bullish position because of the strong $SPX chart. However, we will trade confirmed signals around that -- both buy and sell signals.

Stock Market Commentary 11/19/2021 [US time]​

 
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This coming week I have a break from work and would like to trade the XJO and various forex pairs using CFDs. My aim is to (by the end of next week) not look like an absolute fool.

I am inexperienced. Wish me luck please.
 

Joules MM1

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This coming week I have a break from work and would like to trade the XJO and various forex pairs using CFDs. My aim is to (by the end of next week) not look like an absolute fool.

I am inexperienced. Wish me luck please.

hey, BFB

as youre inexperienced and cfd's are a made market (not direct to market, theyre synthetic) please tell us what made you decide cfd's are a better route for you to travel

in other words please define what the word "trade" means in terms of transactions thru a synthetic platform,
that has no volume feed and no direct access to exchange data, thus, no effective indicia component,
keeping in mind that all-hours charts distort the outlook of cash-hours charts

interested to read your thoughts

about your post:
keep in mind what you look like is irrelevant (i say) to the longterm business youre running, would it be better to
aim for a successful failure rather than a appearance of smarts(?) .....a successful failure is where trade(s) fail yet
you can concisely nail what it was that caused the draw-down AND - more importantly - you can define what made
a win rather than just accepting you made a win, so it can be repeated, so that the draw-down can be understood
and added to your knowledge on what not to do

everyone starts inexperienced, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth*", it's not the punch you
throw its the defence you have that determines sustainability, do you have the right capital size, do you understand the margin steps,
how much youre likely to lose when you do lose based on youre strategy versus the margin requirements, do you know the media affects on releases, the non-affects of media releases in trends, how news impels price, how binary events trap players, do you have a plan to stay out of news releases, do you know when liquidity is highest or lowest in a session, do you know what a puke trade looks like, an exhaustion trade looks like, do you know the difference between a congestion trade or an impulsive trade, do you know how to define a range trade, how to trade a break-out, know how to recognise a fake-out of the range or (charting) line break, do you understand the difference between cfd price bar and a cash price bar, do you understand how some (cash) opens trade, versus, how some (cash) closes trade, what instrument is best for you, do you understand intermarket pressures, when theyre likely to matter or irrelevant, in which phases would likely-ness matter, do you know how to judge where other players consider value, price bids get rejected, where the offer is rejected....

anyways, the point is, inexperience is fine of itself, way below the radar versus dimiwittery, alternatively, if you simply have a bag full of cash, just bored, then sure, give it a go and donate to the person on the other side of your "trade"

otherwise nobody here is going to laugh, we are far more keen to communicate and help where possible, cfd's are merely a transport for wealth to you or away from you, given that that is true, look around ASF to spot other traders and how they practise their craft

frankly, trading cfd's is fraught with danger - first clearly define a trade edge over the instrument(s) you want to transact with - have that then jump in and while you can develop as you go, you still need to define a strategy for safe learning

someone i commend to you is @asennawealth twitter - he can take you thru trade edge for cfd's




*thanks, Mike Tyson
 
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Thanks Joules, just briefly the choice to use CFDs is because they are bought and sold in a somewhat similar fashion to futures albeit a poor mans version. If, over some time I can prove to myself that my methods work then a move to futures could be done without needing major changes to my methods. Drastically moving up in size to full futures contracts, that would be another matter to be discussed at a different time.

The real stuff like position sizing, risk management, entries/exits, personal psychology and general methodologies, I do have structured plans plus my risk will be small. I won't be studying any educators through the week as it will be all business.

Point taken about the punches to the face! I'll remember that when things inevitably get tough.

cheers,
BFB
 

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No idea what that is mate- sorry I only dabble in Japanese candle sticks, just a one trick pony here
 

Joules MM1

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nobody at home 7353's the operating upchannel floor about to be tested
breaking the floor (and the break being confirmed on a backtest) would support the 261.8% resistance did complete a
simple running flat bounce, meaning we have completed 1down and 2 up(against the new trend: down)

as per this chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/a71li4Vu/

nothing has essentially changed from that post last wednesday, except the bulls
(thru the cfd lens at least) have increased their belief of higher highs to come, "all clients" have 82% of capital on the buy side (BTO)
= only 18% of total available capital thru cmc is in open sells (STO)

2020 June 9th saw price sideways for 55 days before a higher high printed in the cash
2021 Aug 13th we are now 71 days cash hours without a higher high,
we are just below 50% of the current low to high range in the cash for the full 72 days

we are almost outside the channel

bulls are 82% long

if we climb back inside the channel and print a high above todays over the next two sessions
then i know the 82% happy footed/fetted money is correct and i am incorrect

 

Joules MM1

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switch off from the media (whatever the news-du-jour), nothing to do with exogenous inputs, theyre part of the trend not the other way around
 
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