• Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Tools being used by your trading competition

Discussion in 'Trading Strategies/Systems' started by howardbandy, Dec 10, 2016.

  1. Trembling Hand

    Trembling Hand Can be found on the bid

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    Well there is a perfect example of an appeal to authority fallacy which has very robust data showing that the expert is wrong. Very bad example to make your case Tech.
     
  2. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Way off topic ---But I'm not sure its that bad.

    Source-http://www.radiationresearch.org/pdfs/reasons_us.pdfBrain Tumor.png

    And so it was with Cigarette smoking!!
     
  3. Klogg

    Klogg

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    I didn't mean to like anything. I was just reading through the thread earlier, must have accidentally clicked it.
     
  4. craft

    craft Can't re Member

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    If growing up means conforming and not questioning, then better you don't grow up I reckon.

    Disrespect is in the eye of the beholder. Its the "my way, nothing else will work" attitude expressed in the first post and follow up posts that I find disrespectful. And the calling the thread to an end when challenged that I find childish.

    There's nothing wrong with the comprehension and understanding of those that have a different view.

    I'll like thingy's post because I can't give tech's a dislike and I really dislike it.
     
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  5. Trembling Hand

    Trembling Hand Can be found on the bid

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    Dude that looks like cherry picked nut job site from the fringes of the net. You cannot talk about the 'scientific processes' then quote that. But anyway..... ML and the cloud of doom coming to the keyboard warriors.....


    I have spent the last year and a half learning Python and ML applications towards trading (its been cool as an old dog learning new tricks and I really nerded out :watching: ). Initially my interest was the use of ML predictions from another very traditional and what I saw as a non scientific approach, training response from prescribed loads set by coaches in endurance sports.... long story but very interesting things coming in that field, like many others with ML applications. Some coaches have already taken the dive and the outcome has been evolutionary rather than revolutionary so far but very early days yet. That of course led to doing different tuts from all over the net on many different subjects and of course a good look at how it was being used in the trading world. What is available out there on the net from what I could find was truly woeful. Stuff like feeding in EOD OHLC data into scikit learn algos and hoping to predict next day being up or down. Just sh1te!!

    The deeper I went looking for applications the more and more disappointed I became with ML likelihood at being a revolution for the single guy on a keyboard. Once I had experience with what was possible with simplistic applications of ML it became clear that it was no different from any other angles at cracking the market. You are going to need may hours of dedicated learning, a very thorough background in market fundamentals other wise you'll will waste a heap of time trying to make simplistic and unrealistic applications/ideas work and mostly, as always in the market, a unique approach.

    I suspect the pessimism from system traders about the future is the result of them now playing in a field that has had so little barrier to entry for so long. The EOD systematic trader looking for an edge with low risk over a few days by running decision tree algos is now 40 or so years old as a field. At the start you were a first mover with access to a lot of low hanging fruit. Try and imagine how many backtest have been performed on EOD and 1 min bar data since the start of the PC era!!! Talk about a carcass being picked over.

    Python is a very cool language to learn and play around with but its no 'insider knowledge' tech. I have had a basic look at what a few Hedgies are doing in Melb with ML too and from what I was able to guess its more about risk and metrics than uncovering a new edge but when you are trading many many mil maybe that where the edge is?? Its another tool added to what has come before it. I'll continue to investigate what I can do with it. I have now moved far enough away from the beginners stage that I can apply my own unique approaches to collecting, assembling and searching data. From my discretionary trading results that is where the profits are.

    What is disappointing in ML & the trading field is how little there is to find in true applications to trading. Useful ones. Unfortunately this thread adds to that.
     
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  6. ThingyMajiggy

    ThingyMajiggy

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    Yeah really.

    Must be people of your generation that blindly believe and take on board what someone says as gospel simply because of the word before their name and the language they use, professor. Forgive me for questioning the unquestioned.

    How am I not in a position to do so, he is recommending I buy his books, wanting me to buy his products when I've never seen any evidence that he even trades, sure he knows a lot about Maths and Machine Learning, not doubting that for a second.

    You lot need to learn to take some criticism, not just hand it out. Open your minds a little, think outside the square, really, it's okay. Your way isn't the only way. Where was the personal attack by the way? How do we advance if no one asks questions or probes for the real deal and blindly follows.

    But of course when questioned and told the above, you get snooty and start calling me childish. There's a reason the likes of Khan Academy/Coursera/Udacity(online education) were thought up in the first place, there are better ways to learn than the traditional listening to a professor drone on with theory for 2 hours with no practical advice/effort/evidence in the real world.

    Maybe you feel you have to defend him as you've bought all his books, I dunno.

    But yeah, clearly it has reached its limits.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2017
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  7. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    From my experience over the last 18 mths, it appears that there is a misunderstanding or more to the point misconception with regard to data analysis.

    There seems to be an expectation that Howards work or any other quant for that matter should provide the user with a fully operative profitable trading method.

    The use of Python as a data analysis tool leads the user to in put their criteria to use in conjunction with the algos designed by Howard and others to then determine if the methods inputs (Found and added by the user) are more likely to be profitable than another or indeed random.

    I agree its not insider trading knowledge far from it. But it is a diagnostic tool recognised and accepted as critical in almost every field but the smaller end of town finance.

    I still trade discretionary. But as I've said before if and when I trade with 500K or more it wont be discretionary and not without my own Quant that I can trust. Fortunately I have one.

    We agree with you that what is available out there is very disjointed, Barely practical unless you have weeks to make it applicable. Change is coming from a great number of areas. I think this is evolving and may take less years than most think. Interesting and exciting.
     
  8. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Yeh but become acquainted with knowledge before sledging something that is clearly beyond Sams Comprehension and understanding.
    His frustration is clear!
     
  9. howardbandy

    howardbandy

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    Greetings --

    Don't be that person. Just do the math.

    Best, Howard
     
  10. McLovin

    McLovin

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    What sort of "quant" is working for someone with $500k and how could you trust their analysis? Monkeys, peanuts etc...
     
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  11. craft

    craft Can't re Member

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    His son??? how could you not trust family???

    That start up investment - probably in reality translates to buying a family member a job and trying to get something back from the uni expenses.

    But the marketing job to lay the foundations to sell some rabbit hole crap to the bunnies and recoup the investment is entrepreneurial.

    Or am I just too sceptical?
     
  12. craft

    craft Can't re Member

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    Just do the math!


    So will the math tell you if the regularity you have mined out with your math and computing power exists because of causation or coincidence? I’m guising with the focus on monitoring things staying stationary; you acknowledge the difficulty in determining which it is.


    If it is causation – does the math help with the explanation?


    If you can make it to an explanation then at best you are drawing explanations from the field of social sciences and those explanations are subject to change – we are not talking laws of nature here.


    If you have an objective explanation from the social sciences to explain your historical regularity – the second you apply it to the future it becomes subjective anyway – nobody knows the future.


    I have more a math oriented brain then a creative brain and perhaps the hardest thing I had to do in my journey is accept that math is just a small part of the puzzle. The biggest part is story – accepting no matter what I did to prepare a profitable plan for the future the most I could ever go forward with was a “subjective story” of how the trade/system of trades might turn out and then manage my story against what ever reality felt like it damn well wanted to do.


    No amount of math or data analysis is going to change trading/investing away from being a subjective story game unless it can predict the future with 100% and I’ll bet you that will never happen.


    The math can help formulate a decent story – but it’s not the only way to formulate a decent profitable story.
     
  13. ThingyMajiggy

    ThingyMajiggy

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    Haha right. The refusal and zero real-world proof continues from the walking textbook and the guy with the smart son.

    Can only ask simple questions that would be simple to answer so many times. Heaven forbid you question the Sensei. I tried to get something useful out of them but alas, there obviously isn't anything, at least yet, on this topic. All the best folks :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2017
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  14. Klogg

    Klogg

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    This post I liked intentionally.

    Tech/a - go nuts.
     
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  15. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Correct

    In correct
    Has his own Company and spends approx. a day a week on this--Currently
    for the last 18 mths.

    You could look at it in that light.

    No.
     
  16. OmegaTrader

    OmegaTrader

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    I think we need to show respect to Howard even if we disagree with him.

    The is not like other members which claim to make exorbitant risk adjusted returns without proof.

    Those charlatans deserve disrespect...

    I disagree with some points he has made.

    But the posts are really in-depth and of value.

    He is clearly stating that he has products for sale related to his area of research/business activities.

    Go for the ball not the man.

    The debate is centering around Quantitative analysis not if Howard is a good guy or a bad guy.

    My twocents
     
  17. McLovin

    McLovin

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    Why not just give him your $500k, or however much, and let him trade it for you then? If being a quant is the bit that adds value what value do you (or anyone who isn't a quant) add?
     
  18. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Could do.

    There is a complexity with trusts etc.

    But no problem with that as long as I understand it.
    Unless I understand what risks I can quantify (to a degree)
    I wont invest in anything regardless of who/what it is.
    Just due diligence as best I can---most would be no different.
     
  19. McLovin

    McLovin

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    Presumably you don't understand what risk you can quantify and that's why you have a quant?

    It seems a bit far-fetched to have a guy working one day a week as a "quant"/trader/investor who could provide a meaningful edge. Is your son's company the one in which you are a venture capital partner?

    I don't know much about trading, but I'll tell you something about investing; the answer is rarely "more data".
     
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  20. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Private mailed you.
     
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