Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Today's trading on the ASX

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Us Earnings season boosts investor confidence. Markets had been buoyed by a strong corporate earnings season, with over 82% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations, according to FactSet.

All eyes on the Fed. In addition to earnings, investors are bracing for a high-stakes week on the macro front. The US Federal Reserve is due to meet, with its latest interest rate decision expected Friday morning AEST.

Despite Wall Street’s rally, local futures point to a softer open, with SPI 200 futures down 5 points and the ASX hovering just 1% below record highs.
 
Australian shares are heading into Week 31 up around 0.33% – in early morning ASX 200 futures, at least – after the U.S. and European Union completed a trade deal that will see European goods whacked with 15% taxes.

Trump’s already heralding it as “the biggest ever made” – and considering it’s pushing Wall Street on to a fifth straight record day, it is clearly quite sizeable.

Traders liked the deal because, as EU President Von der Leyen said, it brings “stability.”

It sets Aussie trade up for a green start to what could be a very topsy-turvy week, with everything from FY25 earnings to CPI numbers and then a bellwether Federal Reserve meeting coming on Friday in the U.S.
 
ASX futures are pointing down 60 points or 0.7 per cent.

AUD down 0.7% to US65.21¢
Gold down 0.7% to $US3314.61 an ounce
Brent oil up 2.8% to $US70.32 a barrel
Iron ore down 2.6% to $US100.65 a tonne
10-year yield: US 4.41%, Australia 4.34%
 
Australian market set for soft open amid CPI focus

The SPI 200 futures point to a modest 7-point drop at the open, with the local market awaiting monthly CPI figures at 11.30am AEST.

Wednesday also marks the busiest reporting day yet for the ASX earnings season, with Rio Tinto set to release results after market close. Earlier updates are due from Atlas Arteria, Champion Iron, Pilbara Minerals, and Mineral Resources.

In commodities, Brent crude jumped 3.53% to US$72.51 a barrel, while iron ore rose 2.1% to US$102.95 a tonne. Gold gained 0.08% to US$3,383.80 an ounce. The Australian dollar slipped slightly to US65.12¢.

The VIX volatility index rose to 15.98. Bitcoin dropped 0.6% to US$117,449.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Australian market set for soft open amid CPI focus

The SPI 200 futures point to a modest 7-point drop at the open, with the local market awaiting monthly CPI figures at 11.30am AEST.

Wednesday also marks the busiest reporting day yet for the ASX earnings season, with Rio Tinto set to release results after market close. Earlier updates are due from Atlas Arteria, Champion Iron, Pilbara Minerals, and Mineral Resources.

In commodities, Brent crude jumped 3.53% to US$72.51 a barrel, while iron ore rose 2.1% to US$102.95 a tonne. Gold gained 0.08% to US$3,383.80 an ounce. The Australian dollar slipped slightly to US65.12¢.

The VIX volatility index rose to 15.98. Bitcoin dropped 0.6% to US$117,449.
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No matter what happens, all eyes will be on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) later today when it releases fresh local CPI data for the nation.

That dataset is to be the last major packet of data the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will consider moving ahead to its August meeting.

While prediction markets, ever-enthusiastic, are expecting an August cut – along with analysts for some of the Big 4 (and American investment banks) – the great unknown for Australian inflation remains the tariff un-pause set to kick off this Friday evening local time.
 
Australia

Australian shares came within a whisker of a record high on Wednesday, buoyed by a cooler-than-expected inflation report that locked in expectations for a Reserve Bank rate cut in August. The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% to 8756.40, just below its all-time high of 8757.20. Rate-sensitive real estate stocks led gains, while financials also strengthened in afternoon trade.

June quarter CPI data showed annual headline inflation slowing to 2.1% from 2.4%, with core inflation easing to 2.7%. Money markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut in August and see room for up to three more cuts by early 2026.

Mirvac (+2.7%), Scentre Group (+1.9%), and Vicinity Centres (+1.7%) all rallied as falling bond yields boosted property valuations. The 3-year bond yield dropped 7 basis points to 3.35%. Major banks also rebounded, with Commonwealth Bank climbing 1.6% to $176.99.

Materials were more mixed. Iron ore held steady around USD 102/t, but BHP (-0.5%) and Rio Tinto (-1%) slipped, the latter posting a five-year low in half-year earnings. Fortescue rose 0.6%. Lithium miner IGO fell 7.2% after flagging production issues at its Kwinana refinery. Appen slumped 12.8% on soft guidance due to US AI market uncertainty.

On the upside, Pilbara Minerals jumped 3% after forecasting lower costs and higher output in FY26. PointsBet added 4.2% after a revised takeover bid from Betr, and PolyNovo surged 7.8% on strong FY25 earnings guidance.

With rate cut expectations rising, analysts believe Australia’s AAA rating and relatively disciplined fiscal policy could attract foreign capital, particularly to the local bond market. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser will speak this morning at the Barrenjoey Economic Forum, which could provide further clarity on the central bank’s forward path.
 
Bailxtrader said:
Australia

Australian shares came within a whisker of a record high on Wednesday, buoyed by a cooler-than-expected inflation report that locked in expectations for a Reserve Bank rate cut in August. The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% to 8756.40, just below its all-time high of 8757.20. Rate-sensitive real estate stocks led gains, while financials also strengthened in afternoon trade.

June quarter CPI data showed annual headline inflation slowing to 2.1% from 2.4%, with core inflation easing to 2.7%. Money markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut in August and see room for up to three more cuts by early 2026.

Mirvac (+2.7%), Scentre Group (+1.9%), and Vicinity Centres (+1.7%) all rallied as falling bond yields boosted property valuations. The 3-year bond yield dropped 7 basis points to 3.35%. Major banks also rebounded, with Commonwealth Bank climbing 1.6% to $176.99.

Materials were more mixed. Iron ore held steady around USD 102/t, but BHP (-0.5%) and Rio Tinto (-1%) slipped, the latter posting a five-year low in half-year earnings. Fortescue rose 0.6%. Lithium miner IGO fell 7.2% after flagging production issues at its Kwinana refinery. Appen slumped 12.8% on soft guidance due to US AI market uncertainty.

On the upside, Pilbara Minerals jumped 3% after forecasting lower costs and higher output in FY26. PointsBet added 4.2% after a revised takeover bid from Betr, and PolyNovo surged 7.8% on strong FY25 earnings guidance.

With rate cut expectations rising, analysts believe Australia’s AAA rating and relatively disciplined fiscal policy could attract foreign capital, particularly to the local bond market. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser will speak this morning at the Barrenjoey Economic Forum, which could provide further clarity on the central bank’s forward path.
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Core inflation at 2.7% isn't that great a figure.
 
Australian shares look to follow Wall Street lower. The SPI 200 futures point to a 21-point drop at the open, with investors digesting the Fed’s hawkish tone and recalibrating global rate expectations.

The Australian dollar fell 1.1% to US64.37¢, while Brent crude rose 1.3% to US$73.47. Gold fell 1.6% and iron ore slipped 0.6%.

Beach Energy, Liontown Resources and Origin Energy report today
 
The local market is tipped to trade red on Thursday following the S&P500 declining -0.12% overnight (though, the NASDAQ ended 30pts higher.)

This comes even after the ASX200 re-entered record territory on Wednesday following a CPI read widely perceived as a signal the RBA is likely to cut in August (something about which I still have partial doubts.)

We get retail trade data today, too; that’s on the way out in favour of the household spending indicator.
The market isn’t expecting it to mean much either way, and it rarely moves the ASX200.

In commodities, Iron Ore hovering just below $100/tn on the SGX.
 
ASX futures are pointing down 64 points or 0.7 per cent to 8639.

  • AUD -0.1% to US64.26¢
  • Gold +0.5% to $US3289.93 an oz
  • Brent oil -1% to $US72.53 a bbl
  • Comex copper -22% to $US4.3545 a lb
  • Iron ore -2% to $US99.70 a tonne
  • 10-year yield: US 4.37%, Australia 4.26%
 
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