The New Bull Market

ducati916 · 29 December 2020

This will be my last post on inflation and macro for a while as the markets are now re-opened for the New Year.

Europe is increasing their money supply significantly. Not to financial firms, but to the man in the street, via government guaranteed loans for all manner of items, not least real estate. Banks will (which has been absent since the 2008 crisis) now lend to the man on the street. This is an increase in money/credit that will become inflationary when combined with other variables.

US savings rate. Historically high due to (a) stimulus cheques and (b) nowhere to really spend it, other than paying down debt, which has accounted for the drop already. When the US and world re-opens, the man-in-the-street will have cash and the ability in Europe, to get more.

Inventories are low. We have a supply/demand mismatch going forward.

US Banks are also loosening up. The higher the number, the tighter credit. US Banks are going to expand credit to our chap-in-the-street. Inflationary.

Again, many of these are government backed. There is still $600B waiting to be loaned out to small businesses.

Wage growth is critical. The election was about Blue Collar. Both parties need to create wage growth (inflationary) and will do so via policy.

China is potentially set to implode. The Yuan is a managed currency. To be so, China must attract capital inflows. Given that their export machine has hit a glitch, they need capital inflows from an alternative source. Will it happen? Too early to tell, but if it does not, China will have some really major issues.

With the new Cold War heating up, China is in a quite precarious position. Their position is now vis-a-vis the West, one of a gigantic bluff. By ostracising China, a very potent disinflationary force is reversed. The result: increased inflationary pressures.

Capital controls are coming. They have a new name: Macro Prudential Regulation. They are yield curve caps. This is also highly inflationary. Counter-intuitively, I see the US$ strengthening. Europe and the Euro are at odds internally. German debt is 200% of GDP, French debt at 400% of GDP. How can that be reconciled? There will (I think) be capital flight out of the Euro into the US$. China wants those capital inflows, but I don't think they will go to the Yuan denominated assets.

Which leaves Gold/Crypto.

jog on
duc

ducati916 · 29 December 2020

Some late day thoughts:

The stimulus passed at $2000/person. Nice and inflationary.

BTC. Starting to drive me a bit nuts. It's a trade. It is not the solution to the world's problems. Anyway, nice correlation here:

Which offers up potential strategies using the inverse of SOXL which is SOXS and/or SOXL itself as a form of a pairs trade.

Stocks still looking a bit iffy:

True we gapped higher, true it is the Santa Claus rally, true VIX is trending lower. I just don't like the divergence above, nor below:

NG ran riot today:

This trade is already profitable, but with it breaking support, I'll give it some rope to run and see if it breaks down during the week. Might be a weather thing, unusually warm or some-such.

Meanwhile Mr flippe-floppe-flye

jog on
duc

peter2 · 29 December 2020

ducati916 said:
Might be a weather thing, unusually warm or some-such.

Yes, nat gas prices slumped after news of mild winter weather forecast for the next two weeks.

Smurf1976 · 29 December 2020

peter2 said:
nat gas prices slumped after news of mild winter weather forecast for the next two weeks

Something to remember about gas is that it's still largely a regional commodity not a global one. Trade exists but prices do vary considerably from one region to another due to the high cost of liquefaction and shipping.

Compared to say gold which has a similar price pretty much anywhere.

ducati916 · 30 December 2020

Smurf1976 said:
Something to remember about gas is that it's still largely a regional commodity not a global one. Trade exists but prices do vary considerably from one region to another due to the high cost of liquefaction and shipping.

Compared to say gold which has a similar price pretty much anywhere.

I chose NG specifically for its unpredictability. It is all over the place price wise. Being a commodity, it tends to trade in both directions. Although, from this chart, the last 10yrs has been relentlessly lower.

I'm guessing it will re-test the low.

Margin debt at high's:

Not an issue, until it's an issue. It can go higher. When (and if) it reverses, it reverses fast.

IPOs in 2020

Not to the dot.com boom, but with more planned into 2021, another metric to track.

BTC

Total value $420B. On that basis you'd have to say higher if it goes even slightly mainstream. By mainstream I mean Hedge Funds, Corporate Treasurers, Pension Funds, etc. So the $2T is AAPL and the $12T is Gold.

The 'public' seem less involved this time round:

Hmmmm.

Surprises for 2021:

From Doug Kass:

Here are my 15 Surprise for 2021:

Surprise #1 Tesla's Stock Declines By Two Thirds - Elon Musk loses his liberal audience. Tesla's mistreatment of customers, suppliers, employees, subsidy providers and safety regulators and the general population hits a wall. A movement to kick Tesla out of ESG Indices gains steam, as proponents give Tesla the lowest possible rating in S and G. The Chinese retaliate over Musk's racist comments, where he blames Chinese drivers for a series of accidents. A high profile celebrity or athlete dies while using autopilot. Under new leadership, the National Highway Safety Administration (HTSA) orders recalls for suspension problems, computer screen failures, battery fires, sudden acceleration. Regulators put a stop to so called Full Self Driving due to predictable abuse. Tesla announces it will be transitioning its Fremont, California manufacturing to Austin, Texas in 2022, but after years of union busting, Austin workers vote to join the UAW. Meanwhile, Tesla's market share collapses under an avalanche of new entrants. Rivian and GM (GM) beat the cybertruck to market with better products. VW (VLKAF) becomes the leading global manufacturer of electric cars. GM, Waymo and Zoox become the leaders in self-driving. Toyota (TM) demonstrates a solid state battery making them the leader in batteries. Tesla stock falls by almost -70% -- Greenlight's David Einhorn jokes that "it's like an unannounced stock split." John Bogle rolls over in his grave as "passive" investors lose most of their "investment" in Tesla. Congress conducts an investigation into Tesla's inclusion in the S&P Index.

Surprise #2 Political Normalcy Is Not Obsolete and Biden is The Calm After the Storm - Biden breaks the party deadlock in Washington and governs with a centrist coalition of key Senators and Congressmen - to the frustration of the far left. There are several Republicans like Romney, Murkowski, Collins, Ernst, Perdue and Tillis that realize they have a ton of power (and control of the Senate) to support a centrist agenda. They join Democrat centrists including Warner, Bennet, Carper and Shaheen to drive a bipartisan agenda. There will be no bold Green New Deal (though a more moderate deal is delivered), confiscatory tax law changes, defunded police, mass forgiveness of student loans or single payor health. There will not be two new states or Supreme Court packing - even if the senate goes 50-50. There will be an infrastructure bill (with Green energy emphasized), changes to taxes on foreign corporate earnings, police reform, immigration reform and other attempts to reduce institutional racism, limited forbearance on hardship student debt, and fixes to Obamacare.

Surprise #3 Former President Trump No Longer Remains A Dominant Political Force in the U.S. - The Republican party comes to the realization that Trump is a liability at the same time the Democrats realize that the far left hurts their party. Trump proceeds with "Trump TV" (he is in "pre-production" already!). Launched in the spring, he recruits Sean Hannity, Roger Stone, Mike Flynn and Joe Kernen to become the enterprise's primary commentators. By year-end it is clear that this is but another one of Trump's multiple business failures and "Trump TV" closes almost before it started. Facing numerous lawsuits and a sweeping State of New York indictment, Donald Trump declares personal bankruptcy by year-end. There is no cliffhanger this time and, disgraced, Trump sells Mar A Lago and liquidates several of his other properties.

Surprise #4 Stocks Experience Their Least Volatility Ever in the First Half of 2021 and the Most Volatility Ever in the Second Half of 2021 - The S&P Index is tightly range bound between 3600-3800 over the first six months of the year - but, under the weight of regulatory assault of technology, and higher inflation and interest rates, falls to under 3300 later in 2021.
Surprise #5 Bottlenecks Multiply and Inflation Surges - There are bottlenecks everywhere in 2021 and inflation in places beyond financial assets. As the economy reopens, there are shortages of almost everything. Commodities boom, but so do service prices. It seems that prices of everything from shipping to manicures are on the rise. The infrastructure bill sends construction material prices through the proverbial roof. Pent up savings are unleashed in robust consumer demand. Concerts, sporting events reopen with limited capacity and tickets are in hot demand. Residential real estate (single and multi family) soar in price, as people put stimulus, the recovery and stock market winnings into real estate. By mid-year, even the badly manipulated CPI is running up +4%.

Surprise #6 Inflation and Interest Rates Rip Higher Leading to A Valuation Reset (Lower) For Equities in 2021 - At first, the bond market reacts "normally" to rising inflation. The 10 year yield breaks 2% (to the upside). The stock market has a late spring/early summer wobble in response to rising rates and the possibility that target inflation will force higher rates. A mid-year Treasury auction goes poorly. The Federal Reserve, faced with the dilemma of choosing between a lower stock market and higher inflation, chooses to accept higher inflation. The Fed announces a cap on the 10 year yield at 1.5% and expresses its willingness to do whatever it takes to enforce it. In effect, the Fed becomes the Treasury buyer of first resort. This sends stocks, commodities and most everything briefly higher (towards the upper end of the 3600-3800 S&P trading range) - except the dollar, which falls 10%-15%. Though temporarily ignored by infinite liquidity and easing financial conditions at all costs, it grows clear that Covid-19 spurred a dangerous leveraging up in the global economy that has been almost constantly in place since The Great Decession of 2008-09. Higher inflation and interest rates bring the "bond vigilantes" out of their long hibernation. Stocks fall by -15% over the last six months of the year as price earnings multiples contract in the face of the highest level of corporate defaults in over a decade (led by companies in the retail space and others that were already struggling prior to the virus). Credit spreads (now at record lows), widen dramatically, the CLO market collapses and private equity companies are among the worst market performers of the year.

Surprise #7 A Decline in the U.S. Dollar Spurs an Advance In Gold (to $3,000/oz) and a Ramp of +50% in Bitcoin (to $40,000) - But Silver Is The Big Winner As It Doubles to Over $50/oz - Over easy policy, excessive liquidity, higher inflation and a rapid rollout in the Covid-19 vaccine powers the prices of cryptocurrencies and precious metals higher. Silver, however, is the league leader as the rapidly rising demand for silver in industrial applications creates a supply crunch late in the year. Another challenge on the supply side for silver is that more than half of mined silver supply is a by-product of zinc, lead and copper mining, making it tough for miners to meet the surging excess proportional demand for silver. Precious metals and crypto currency prices peak in the third quarter.

Surprise #8 Congress Acts On the SALT Deduction - Congress either repeals the SALT deduction limit or raises the cap from $10,000 to $25,000. Centrist Ray McGuire wins the June Democratic primary for New York City Mayor and, upon his election in November initiates bold moves to revitalize NYC. Residents move back and housing activity and prices fall in the suburbs under the weight of those initiatives and stretched home affordability.

Surprise #9 The Fallout From Brexit Causes Trade and Other Chaos in Europe - Badly Shaking the UK and European Economies

Surprise #10 France's Economy Approaches The Financial Brink - Weighed down by one of the worst debt to GDP ratios in Europe and sub zero interest rates, two of the country's largest banks fail. In a desperate position, in which France actually faces systemic risk, the country begs for assistance from Germany in order to get the ECB to print enough currency to posture a bailout of France's banking system. President Emmanuel Micron steps down.

Surprise #11 Broad Regulatory Actions Against Big Tech Results In A More Rapid Pivot From Growth to Value - FANG Becomes GATFAT! - Antitrust actions against Facebook (FB) , Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) become a genuine worry. In response to Derek Chauvin being acquitted in the George Floyd case, rioting ensues and the social media platforms are blamed for fanning the literal flames as Minneapolis is all but burned to the ground. The Rule 230 exemption is repealed. Meanwhile Europe begins imposing punitive taxes on U.S. internet giants. Finally, China retaliates to Biden continuing Trumps policy of going after Chinese companies with its own claims about Apple (AAPL) (illegal monopoly) and Tesla (TSLA) (unsafe cars). Google, Apple, Twitter (TWTR) , Facebook, Amazon and Tesla get redubbed GATFAT, as the impact of their prior overblown markets caps on portfolios is broadly felt by the Indexers and other investors.

Surprise #12 China's Economy Sputters Under Massive Debts and Crackdown on Tech Giants - Leading To Some Moderation In Xi's Policies

Surprise #13 Despite Strong 4Q2020 Performance, Bank Stocks Lead the Market in The First Half of the Year - As tech falters under the weight of an existential antitrust threat, financials prosper. Citigroup (C) trades at $75, Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) trade at $35 and JP Morgan's (JPM) price approaches $140/share by the early summer.

Surprise #14 Goldman Sachs Goes Private In 2Q2021 - The announcement marks a high-water mark for equities in 2Q2021.

Surprise #15 Trump Is Barred From Twitter - Within one week after President-Elect Biden's inauguration, Twitter suspends former President Trump's Twitter account for tweeting false claims about the "stolen" Presidential election. Upon the news of the Twitter suspension announcement, Twitter's shares fall by over -$7 to $8/share (or by about -15%) in one day. (The shares bottom in the high $30s, where I load up!)

I'm on board with inflation & China having issues.

jog on
duc

ducati916 · 30 December 2020

Some odds & sods:

First up oil news:

Market Movers

- Gazprom (OTCPK: OGZPY) expects to produce 452 bcm of natural gas this year, which it said has been a “challenging” year. That would be a 10% decline in output.

- Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) was picked by Bank of America as a top stock pick, with a Buy rating.

- Mild weather sent natural gas prices tumbling more than 10%. The United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell by a similar percentage.

Tuesday December 29, 2020

Oil has seesawed back and forth over the past week, sandwiched between very strong bullish and bearish forces on each side. Covid-19 is at its worst in many parts of the world, but vaccinations are picking up in earnest as well. Brent edged back above $51 per barrel after the house passed a major stimulus bill on Monday evening. “Markets feel very rangy into the New Year but should find support today from broader risk markets as stocks are soaring on the prospects of larger stimulus checks,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi.

OPEC+ deal could be tweaked. The terms of the OPEC+ production pact could be revised if oil demand recovers next year faster than currently expected, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who is still in charge of coordinating Russia’s oil policy with OPEC, told Rossiya TV news channel in an interview on Monday.

U.S. LNG set for strong 2021. Rising JKM prices for LNG in Asia brighten the outlook for U.S. LNG exports. “We assume near-max utilization rates of US LNG export facilities next year,” Bank of America said.

Oil and gas write-downs largest in over a decade. Oil and gas companies in North America and Europe wrote down around $145 billion in assets in the first three quarters of 2020, the most since 2010. Prices are rebounding, but the write-downs also reflect long-term concerns. “They are coming to grips with the fact that demand for the product will decline, and the write-downs are a harbinger of that,” KPMG’s Regina Mayor told the WSJ.

Japan to phase out ICE vehicles. Japan said it would end sales of gasoline vehicles by the mid-2030s, the latest major economy to chart a course away from the internal combustion engine.

Exxon’s emissions higher than thought. Internal planning documents reviewed by Bloomberg Green reveal detailed emissions projections for individual projects from ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM). For instance, the Golden Pass LNG project would emit 3.1 million metric tons, and the liquefaction process would emit as much as a coal-fired power plant. Investors are growing increasingly concerned that carbon-intensive projects will be subjected to future regulation or taxation, and they are pressuring Exxon to detail more of their risk.

The worst-performing energy stocks of 2020. Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), has rallied 23 percent in Q4. Nevertheless, the oilfield service provider has lost nearly half of its market valuation year to date, its shares are down 47 percent this year. Here are a few other of the worst-performers of the year.

Dominion plans 2.6 GW of offshore wind. Dominion Energy (NYSE: D) filed for the construction of 2.6 GW of offshore wind in Virginia.

Oil demand won’t recover until 2022. Global oil demand will likely take another year or so to return to pre-pandemic levels—by late 2021 or early 2022, according to IHS Markit. Other analysts see something similar. A “full-fledged demand recovery is shaping up to be a 2022 story, with the 2021 exit rate getting close but not quite at pre-COVID levels,” Raymond James wrote in a note. Developing countries will face structural hurdles to vaccination programs, resulting in a drawn-out recovery.

BP well in Australia comes up empty. “BP Australia can confirm that no significant hydrocarbons have been found at the Ironbark exploration well in Western Australia,” the company said in an email to Reuters. The result is a disappointment for a project that hoped to supply the North West Shelf LNG plant.

UK grid shows rapid decarbonization. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in the UK fell 60% in the six years to 2019. In 2019, renewables accounted for 37% of electricity generation. More recently, on December 26, wind accounted for more than half of the total. The UK grid will be coal-free by 2025 at the latest.

Is the energy transition creating an investment bubble? NextEra (NYSE: NEE), the solar power firm, overtook ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) as the most valuable energy company in the United States, albeit just briefly. Everyone is talking about hydrogen. The energy transition narrative is hogging energy headlines. But what if it turns out to be one huge bubble?

Oil tanker market in for long recovery. Overcapacity for ships and a questionable outlook for demand means that the market for crude oil tankers remains difficult, according to consultancy Drewry.

Goldman: Exxon is oversold. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) have returned an average of -36% this year, a dreadful result. “That said, the stock that appears most dislocated relative to negative revisions is XOM, with shares down 40% relative to our cash flow per share estimate down 19%,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. The investment bank recently upgraded Exxon to a Buy rating.

Continental Resources upgraded by KeyBanc. KeyBanc Capital upgraded Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR) to Overweight from Sector Weight on Tuesday, noting higher future Bakken activity and also upside to oil in Oklahoma. Continental will see “improved leverage next year, significant FCF generation in 2021, and nice exposure to higher oil prices,” according to KeyBanc.

China’s Yahua to supply Tesla with lithium. Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group signed a five-year deal to supply battery-grade lithium hydroxide to Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

U.S. restricts CNOOC trading. The U.S. Treasury Department barred American investors from trading shares of CNOOC (NYSE: CEO) beginning in February. The Trump administration blacklisted CNOOC over ties to the Chinese military.

Lots of demand to come from China for both oil and NG.

Meanwhile in Texas they are flaring

BTC

Trading is still tiny. Could change.

Some stocks with unusual vol.

So they bought the dip today

Is that a good idea? I'm not convinced:

The VIX also looking possibly to break higher again.

And Mr flippe-floppe-flye

jog on
duc

ducati916 · 31 December 2020

The Santa Claus rally continues:

Vol. is dropping into the more normal ranges from the elevated ranges that have characterised most of the year. Now I think we just get garden variety pull-backs and a gradually rising market until the next issue.

I'm thinking that issue could (likely) be inflation. Now it won't be until later in the year (if at all), so best to keep an eye on it: inflation if it arrives will arrive via oil.

With the other factor being interest rates: which are currently moving higher. In the immediate future, 1.3% is on the cards. The question is: will they move higher than 1.3% and if so, will the Fed. cap them? I think yes and yes. If so, inflation will pick-up when combined with the other already enumerated variables.

For the meantime, the Bull rumbles forward and higher.

Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

jog on
duc

Knobby22 · 31 December 2020

ducati916 said:
I chose NG specifically for its unpredictability. It is all over the place price wise. Being a commodity, it tends to trade in both directions. Although, from this chart, the last 10yrs has been relentlessly lower.

View attachment 117365

I'm guessing it will re-test the low.

Margin debt at high's:

View attachment 117355

Not an issue, until it's an issue. It can go higher. When (and if) it reverses, it reverses fast.

IPOs in 2020

View attachment 117363

Not to the dot.com boom, but with more planned into 2021, another metric to track.

BTC

View attachment 117357

Total value $420B. On that basis you'd have to say higher if it goes even slightly mainstream. By mainstream I mean Hedge Funds, Corporate Treasurers, Pension Funds, etc. So the $2T is AAPL and the $12T is Gold.

The 'public' seem less involved this time round:

View attachment 117359 View attachment 117360
View attachment 117361 View attachment 117362

Hmmmm.

Surprises for 2021:

From Doug Kass:

Here are my 15 Surprise for 2021:

I'm on board with inflation & China having issues.

jog on
duc

It will be interesting to see how many he gets right. I don't think any of the predictions would have a probability of less than 20% of coming true.

qldfrog · 31 December 2020

Knobby22 said:
It will be interesting to see how many he gets right. I don't think any of the predictions would have a probability of less than 20% of coming true.

I believe reading the full article he is putting these at the 50pc threshold before pushing these .and yeap fair.

qldfrog · 31 December 2020

We always have to remember that a single powerful solar flare could wipe out the world as we know it, frying electronic in half of the world.then covid will be seen as the spec it is.
So predictions are just predictions within an assumed continuity.this is the best we can do..

Smurf1976 · 31 December 2020

ducati916 said:
I chose NG specifically for its unpredictability. It is all over the place price wise. Being a commodity, it tends to trade in both directions.

Agreed, no issue there.

I’m just drawing attention that a natural gas producer with its physical production located anywhere other than the place any particular price or price chart refers to may be in a very different situation.

For example NZ, WA and the eastern states of Australia are three separate markets unrelated to each other and none of them directly linked to US prices.

It’s a situation where someone unaware of that could be 100% correct about price movement but stuff up the trade if they didn’t reaise the relevance of location. Just drawing that bit to attention.

Versus say gold where location isn’t overly relevant unless due to risk of theft etc but price is consistent.

ducati916 · 2 January 2021

Last data of 2020:

Market will continue to move higher. Nothing currently jumps out as a major risk moving forward into January. Seasonally, we have the Presidential Cycle as a tailwind.

Valuations are being 'justified' through new metrics (Shiller et al.) with an inverted CAPE and low interest rates, thus essentially stating that the market is not 'overvalued'. This is similar to the 'eyeballs' valuation of the 2000 market. The market is horribly overvalued, but it won't matter until it matters.

We definitely have PPI inflation of +24% YoY. Some other stuff needs to happen, primarily something major with the US$ before we see inflation of the 1970's variation, but the other variables are building up some pressure.

Last word to Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

jog on
duc

qldfrog · 2 January 2021

Thanks Mr Le Duc for your daily updates.priceless.
Have a great 2021 and looking forward to reading your data and analysis in the new year

Telamelo · 18 December 2021

divs4ever · 18 December 2021

few dare talk about it , unless it be banned as well

Student of Gann · 7 May 2022

Hello here are a few Charts I prepared for Bitcoin .
The first Chart is an updated bar Chart including Angles and time Counts .
The Second Chart is a Price Curve containing three turning dates extending out towards the end of June and the last Chart is an overview of trend structure including some Time and price calculations that may be of interest .
Regards Grant
Student of Gann at twitter

ducati916 · 7 May 2022

Since you have placed your post here, just a couple of comments.

Since 1920, every 3 step raise in the FFR has resulted in a market dislocation. The next Fed FFR raise is June 15. If the markets have not already blown up by then, they will (historically) on the 3'rd FFR hike.

My daily post https://wordpress.com/view/mrromulus789137764.wordpress.com summarises the driving forces that you can watch out for.

jog on
duc

Stockbailx · 7 May 2022

ASX 200 has been holding up well…it looks like the low of the correction isn’t in yet…and more…

Many key markets around the world are neatly poised on a knife edge.

The US dollar looks like it is itching to bust out to multidecade highs. The US 10-year bond yield is heading towards 3.25%, which is the highest yield in a decade. A spike in yields above there could see the selling accelerate.

The S&P 500 is testing the low of the correction of the past four months, and if the support can’t hold, stocks could fall another 15%.

Student of Gann · 28 May 2022

Bitcoin Forecast containing three dates extending out till early July . There are two Curves presented indicating main Low for the 7th June . As we move into this point we should be able to determine if the market is following the Curve and setting up for Low . From this point trend could be up till X June then down till the X July where a secondary Low is indicated . At this point I am just waiting for the Cycle date to come in and the direction into this date will give us a better indication .

ducati916 · 13 June 2022

So US futures looking not so good.

SPY down 7%

If that is correct and not an error, tomorrow is going to be a rough day.

jog on
duc

The New Bull Market

ducati916

ducati916

peter2

Smurf1976

ducati916

ducati916

ducati916

Knobby22

Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

qldfrog

qldfrog

Smurf1976

ducati916

qldfrog

Telamelo

divs4ever

Student of Gann

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