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The future of Australian property prices

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If I don't have any loans, I don't have any pressure to sell. I find that if I ever sell, I sell too late, and always buy for more than I sold for! I am absolutely rubbish at picking tops or bottoms, but I am good at picking quality

Economists do not know what interest rates will do. I really am unsure what they will do, but think Australians can cope with another 1% rise (they are predicting exceptional growth over the next few years)

I agree with other posters here - bit stagnant, perhaps up to 20% falls in value. In the big scheme, it is warranted and should only cause minimal problems. We can't have the massive years without a correction or retraction.
 
UBIQUITOUS said:
This is a major assumption and I would like to see evidence of this. Are you saying that there has been a decrease in the number of properties up of sale by private treaty?
Click to expand...

My numbers are from a simple back of the envelope type calculation. Last year, 700,000 dwellings were sold/changed hands in Australia. this number varies from year to year but is generally in the range of 500,000 - 750,000 at the moment. Melbourne has about 15% of Australia's population, so it stands to reason that on those sorts of numbers roughly 15% of transactions will be in Melbourne. That's gives 2000/week sales rate for the whole of last year. In a softer year it would be 1500/week. That's where my numbers come from.

As for the proportion of auction vs private treaty currently, that is speculation/supposition on my part, but we do know how many auctions there are each week, and so may get a reasonable immediate picture on the current proportions from that data.


Fair approach to wait and see. Keep an eye on the passed in properties, when I was buying last in late 2008 when the market was correcting downwards and GFC panic was abounding, and auction clearance rates were 40-something% (not 70 like now!), I found that many properties that passed at auction sold in the 1-2 weeks following for something around the current market price for the area. Some passed-in properties were removed from the market. Few sold at a significant discount to the market in my experience - although that doesn't mean that the owners might have had an inflated idea of the market to begin with!

What is going on now just sounds like the typical phase in the property cycle where prices have been rising rapidly, and now they are stopping rising and pulling back a little. Auction clearance rates fall on rising volume as the market takes a while to adjust to the change in conditions. Soon volumes for sale/auction will start to fall again, and clearance rates and prices will stabilise for a while as that occurs. There is no particular trigger evident for anything other than this regular market cycle IMO.

Cheers,

Beej
 

http://reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=1226&nav2=162

Or sellers are facing the worst conditions in over a year. Doesn't say much about the current market.

Cheers

Those shorts on banks doing me a favour today.
 

A first home owners type grant will continue after July. Any thoughts.....
 
hello,
Yes about time they got rid of it, hope other states follow, ridiculous amout of Tax just for purchasing a home

Tax raising should be equally contributed by all
Thankyou
Robots
 
robots said:
Tax raising should be equally contributed by all
Click to expand...

Good to see ya Robots.

If the states were to abolish stamp duty on new homes, where do you think they could make up the lost revenue?

Are you thinking that is should be abolished for all home purchases?

Where do you see an imbalance in the contribution of taxes in the community?

Cheers
 
satanoperca said:
Good to see ya Robots.

If the states were to abolish stamp duty on new homes, where do you think they could make up the lost revenue?

Cheers
Click to expand...


Maybe they would learn to spend the money more wisely if they knew less was coming in.


Miki anyone?
 
robots said:
hello,
Yes about time they got rid of it, hope other states follow, ridiculous amout of Tax just for purchasing a home
Click to expand...
I thought that was the case already for FHB in NSW. From the look of it they are extending it to all new home buyers, not just FHB.

Cheers
 
That graph tells me prices cannot defy gravity for to much longer.

Would be interesting to overlay the increase in mortgage debt which I will assume has been trending up strongly in the last few years.

So number of loans down, amount loaned up. The greater fool is at play.

Cheers
 

Which is why State & Federal gummints are DESPERATELY piling so much financial assistance into the residential housing sector. I'm sure they are well aware of that yawning gap shown on the graph and the consequences if they withdraw massive support now. The whole house of cards, as it were, is riding on one tiny sector of the Oz economy.

So, do your bit to support your gummints. BUY, BUY, BUY!!! Keep those prices soaring!

 
hello,

gee, you need to let your mind open up brothers

why do the lines have to follow each other, isnt it "past performance no indication of future performance"

what support do they offer? zero, one gov (fed) gives you money to cover the other gov's (state) outrageous tax imposed on you for buying a secondhand product

yeah, a grant of 7k is holding up a 230k secondhand house in melton south, amazing

what a great day, superb rain in melbourne, fantastic riding bike to Parkville this morning at 6am, all the lights of the city just as it is awakening

thankyou
professor robots
 
  1. Mortgage debt up 30% in three years.
  2. No. of loans falling fast
  3. Price stalling
  4. Record number of properties hitting the auction circuit
  5. GFC is coming back from its lunch break after dinning on stimulus from govnuts

Property to the moon is the only obvious answer.
 
hello,

thats it brothers, all over

oh well

thankyou
professor robots
 
Well mate compared to shares going down the toilet and countries defaulting on their debts give me bricks and mortar with a tenant anytime, it's a far far safer bet. Good luck with GFC 2....

PS: My tenant moved out after the 6 Month lease expired, one 15 minute open for rental inspection and I got a new one, same rent no probs.
 
robots said:
hello,

thats it brothers, all over

oh well

thankyou
professor robots
Click to expand...

Bit dramatic.


Fantastic Bill.

Still got to finish entries before getting onto main course.

Bill are you buying now?

Cheers
 
Geraldton Guardian (print edition)


Ray White real estate principle Ian Wheatland said sales had dropped 50% in May whilst listings rose 7.5% in that month.
Click to expand...


If one wants a copy of this please send $1.20 for paper and $150.00 for postage and handling.
 
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