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The future of Australian property prices

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Sorry Mr bots that excuse was made ages ago and nothing has changed, and I cant be bothered with sourcing it at the moment, however I do remember bringing it to your attention. If there is any substance there I`d soon as hell change that particular server. It`s not that difficult.

Sell a property, you`ll be right to fund your education then and you wont have to worry about all those mountainous maintenance and upkeep bills.
 
nunthewiser said:


luv you longtime.......

by the way well done on being ASF investor of the year 5 years running .

glad you took note of my "top " call tho
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hello,

thanks Nun and well done on calling it, superb result

the link to the competition seems to be having issues like my other link, so if it gets going will put up

good night everybody, sweet dreams, recharge for tomorrow

thankyou
professor robots
 
RE post #2409

My answers are as below but instead of hogging thread room I thought I would just repond with my answers to Mr Zs repost.

1) Show me where I have not shown you respect? At all times I have answered your posts with the respect they deserve.

2) It is not my word that is doing the talking by the way. I am posting links to the ABS, Economists, newsprint articles and various websites that support what I have typed. You were the one that mentioned that I would not believe you if you told me the truth in regards to the gold holdings and mentioned that robots would poo himself if you told him the truth. I suggested I would be happy to read what you have got in the “Gold price where is it heading” thread.

3) Well done you ! So you understand property then? The sun is still shining. You just have to know where to look is all.

4) Nothing to add here other than I started in property in February 1991.

5) The economist I quoted was voicing his opinion in regards to property and it had nothing to do with Macquarie’s bank perspective? He was freelance writing for the Australian.

6) No, you misinterpreted my post, it does not matter who the economist is or for which bank they work for. I was asking YOU if you were an economist and the economist I quoted also referenced the RESERVE BANK as guidance. Are they ALL wrong?

7) Nevertheless it is the economics we have. Why are you sprouting this BLAH? The topic is about house “prices” and not what is wrong with the teachings of Keynesianism that suits a Western democracy? HUH ?? BIG red herring here ?

8) Seriously WTF …. No seriously WTF?? Have you been asleep at the wheel when property lit up in the last 12 months?? Ummmm 20% according to ABS figures in some capital cities?? WTF ??

9) Man you speak some sheete. It is that simple but you have somehow made it extremely complicated by the verbosity you have displayed with your nonsensical answer.

And now for this ........ Energy prices have been rising for the past 3 years and will continue to rise to prop up the inefficiencies of the industry.

Now back on track to the title of the thread ...... house prices and where are they heading. I have written that prices have fallen by 0.7%, I have written that interest rates will rise, I have written that prices will more than likely stagnate for the next few years. All with links to respected sources. WTF ?? and you want to bang on about gold?
 

If you had purchased in March last year you would have been up to 20% in front of where you are now !! Murphy is a right bastrd alright !! So is karma.

You start the post saying it is a necessity in this country to own a home if you can afford it but reading between the lines you do not own a PPOR yourself? (Maybe this time next year if I keep ducking and weaving to keep domestic harmony, Ironically I am forestalling the purchase of a house right now) but but but you told me you had been a property investor and had made a motzah in real estate and placed it all into gold?? How is it that you do not own the last bastion of a tax free regime? No CGT on the sale. Enough equity and you can borrow against it to buy "other" receivables like shares or more gold for instance.
 


Good on ya Mr Z. As they say, only fools rush in. Pity the poor people who bought in June and have seen their deposit/equity all but disappear. If they had put into the sharemarket over the same period, on average they would have been 3% up.

Now lets think about that - 75% down (average equity in property), or 3% up (average equity in shares)? Hmmmmmm
 

UBI .. can you please post a link as to where the math is coming from for the 75% drop in equity? Last time I checked and supplied links to the ABS property is down nationally 0.7% for a 12 month period. This is despite a national average increase of 10.5% from June 2009 until June 2010. SO therefore property has risen nationally (According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics) 9.8% overall.

YES UBI ..... IF you had bought property in June 2010 you would be slightly miffed that your home on a national average has dropped this amount. Oh Dear ... let me do the maths. I buy a $600,000 home and it is now worth $4200 less. If this amount of money is going to break the deal then I should not have been able to afford a 600k house to begin with. No need to panic sell UBI. No need at all. Property is loooooooong term investment if you know what you are doing.

Just like Mr Z reckons he is the full bottle on gold !

Now a few posts ago you squealed that this thread is about "property prices" when I asked why is the share market in retreat at the moment. Now you are comparing shares to the property market.

You cannot have it both ways UBI.
 

trainspotter

i see your getting pretty hot about anyone having an opposite view on property

i absolutely think its a huge bubble right now, at about 3.2 times GDP,,

At 3.2 times GDP, Australia's housing bubble has surpassed both the United States and Hong Kong housing bubbles, but remains below both the Japanese and Chinese bubbles.

as with all the previous bubbles, the theme is always the same. and your rightly point out that, prices been increasing still further in many regions and retracting in others. but overall the theme on housing is that it continues to rise at alarming rates..

like all bubbles, the most common theme is that people always say "this one is different, this isnt a bubble.." and then site continual remarks on how different it is, how much its growing and how the bubble is not one at all but based on many good sound fundamentals..

trainspotter, with being condescending nor insulting, can you perhaps enlighten me as to why the australian property bubble is not going to burst, and in your view, if i invest in property today, can i expect $100k increase in my property in the coming 12 months on an average property purchase in inner city melbourne?

TIA
 

Not at all Agentm .. I am not hot at all about people having an opposing view. I am just trying to acknowledge the FACTS and not hearsay opinions with nil statistical proof.

I absolutely believe we are not in a bubble cycle which will pop and prices to drop 30% blah blah blah. I have written that the market has dropped .7% for 12 months and will more than likely drop a further .7% over the next 8 month period and parts of capital city prices will drop even further IMO. I have written this for all to see??? I have written that interest rates are beginning to bite and slow the lending. I have also given reasons as to why this lending has stopped with banks having less access to wholesale funds. I have asked others to proffer their views as to why this is happening.

IT IS NOT RISING AT ALARMING RATES NOW AND IS RETRACTING OR STAGNATING. How many times do I have to write this? I even gave the link to the ABS evidencing this FACT !!

Agentm – I believe that the market will soften even further as the banks dry up lending due to their inability to access wholesale funds at the right price. I think that some people will have to sell their houses due to financial hardship because they over extended themselves in the wrong end of the market. This is a normal cycle of events. I have seen this several times in the property market already since 1991.

As to why the Property market will not burst like a bloated bit of road kill in the hot sun –
1) We do not have non recourse loans in Australia – no jingle mail.
2) Our banks do not have toxic debt and there are no ratchet loans on their books.
3) High employment means that people can afford to pay their mortgages.
4) It is unlikely Australia is going to have a double dip recession.
5) Australian property owners either soldier on servicing their mortgage or take their lumps by selling up before the bank forces them to.
6) Go and click on the link I provided from Rory Robertson in previous post.

Why on earth would you expect a 100k increase on a property in inner city Melbourne in the next 12 months? I have not espoused this view? I have repeatedly written that it has RISEN according to the ABS and that is now declining and that I believe that it will stagnate over the next few years. I have also written that this is the time for people who hold investment property to RENT them out rather then speculate.

This is also to do with the great Australian Dream of home ownership. You are buying a home to live in to bring up kids and make a life for yourself and to put down roots.

Or am I missing something here?

Sorry to you all if my writing is deemed condescending or insulting. It is not meant to be taken this way. Please read it for what it is and do not take it personally. I certainly am not.
 
And now more factual info from RP DATA:

Housing finance data released this week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that demand for housing finance continues to decline. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total number of housing finance commitments for owner occupiers fell by -3.9% during June following a 3.0% increase in May. Total owner occupier finance commitments have been trending lower since July 2009 and during June 2010 there were large falls recorded amongst finance commitments for the construction of new homes (-5.0%) and for the purchase of new homes (-4.5%). Housing finance data also showed that the total value of finance commitments for investors eased during June as investors committed to $7.3 billion worth of finance compared to $7.6 billion in May. Increasing investor activity had been the main positive to come out of the housing finance data over recent months, with owner occupier activity retreating, it will be important to see if the lower levels of property value growth results in fewer investors.

We are still waiting to see if the declinal of OO loans is going to have an adverse affect on "property prices". I believe that it will have a negative affect on prices and they will retreat even further. Not to doomsday levels of 30% ... more like 2.5% or thereabouts. When taken into consideration of the ABS figures of a rise of 10.5% for last fiscal year means that prices IMO will be lower for the 2011-2012 fin year. FWIW.
 

That $600k property usually leveraged to the hilt. So how much is your loss on your deposit, taking into account stamp duty, buying costs etc? I would guess that many people who bought a $600k property in June have seen 100% of their deposit disappear within a month. Not exactly sterling returns?

It's all about the leverage. Great when things are going up, but a lifetime tragedy if buying at the top.
 

UBI ... banks wont lend to the hilt anymore ??? They have tightened right up on LVR's. Let's say that they did manage to get finance with a 5% deposit. This is a $30,000 deposit. They then have to pay $32,000 stamp duty. Then settlement costs of say $8,000. Now Lending Mortgage Insurance get involved - another $17,000 Insurance premium to them. So therefore they have placed in $87,000 of their own money. This has to be a genuine savings history of 3 months or the finance will not be approved. The applicant has to be on a minimum of $130,000 with no other debts or CRAA. Loan with bank is now $570,000.

If you can find me a person who is willing to go to these risk levels to buy a home then I would forever be in your debt.

OK .. so now we lose lets say 2.5% value because we are in crisis. The home is now worth $585,000. They have to sell immediately instead of trying to pay it off. SO therefore they have lost the stamp duty but they get their LMI back because they have sold within a 12 month period. They sell the home for $585,000 less RE commission of say $15,000 leaving $570,000 to go back to the bank. Debt is paid to the bank. LMI refund $17,000. Settlement costs of $8,000 again. Leaving them $9,000 in their hand from an original $87,000 saved deposit. EEEEEEEEEEEEK !!

Now this is a terrible tragedy and I have agreed that it is possible for this to happen. But why oh why are they selling when they have such good income to service debt? Have they lost their job? Have one of the primary income earners droped dead? It is possible UBI .. do not get me wrong.

I have written that some of the people will be in this position. It DOES happen. But the percentage of loans that are in this category are extremely low. The bank is covered because they got their money back so no toxic debt to them. LMI will stump up the cash if their is a loss as well.

Now compare this to shares. How many people have been in ASF telling us they have lost over 100k in 2 to 3 months? It is subjective as well. People who know what they are doing on the stock market / property market tend to buy well and sell even better. People who don't (insert answer here)

I am in complete agreeance with you UBI. This has never been in doubt. There are a very small proportion that do their dough in property. The equivalent can be said about the stockmarket.

Now the reason that this is not going to bubble and pop like the good ol USA is that the bank does not lose here. They are not taking a hit for the team on defaulting loans. They are able to pursue you for the money etc. USA had over 10% unemployed, we have 5%. I have written my reasons previously.

Once again I reiterate .... just the facts please.
 

If you back out buying costs in the great state of Victoria with our eye watering stamp duty and the fact the gains have not been across the board, mainly concentrated in the low end of the areas I am interested in. I would have been closer to mid single digit gains in the area and type of house I will probably buy if I chose wisely... if not then... hmmmm. My other investments have well eclipsed a 20% return, it has been an excellent 12 months all things considered, net I am still very much in front of property returns... LOL, I can use a calculator and I do have my best interest at heart... thanks for worrying about it though!

I didn't tell you I put it all into gold, you assumed that, as it appears you are prone to do.

I made no claim of the size of gains made in property (as per your hyperbole) other than to say at the time it was ludicrously easy to coordinate a development, stay 'clean hands' and make a good profit. Too easy when you considered what I actually added to the equation. I'm sure it is probably tougher going these days, I have no interest in finding out.

A home is a home... not an investment. As a property developer you should know the difference. If we are just discussing homes here we are not talking to 'property investors'.... we are talking to emotional involved home owners, I thought you where an investor/developer?

How is it I don't own a house? Many reasons one of which is we are relocating, the others are personal and frankly none of your business. As you can see from what I have told you I believe I don't feel pressure from this market to hurry the process, and I won't.

You seem to be on the attack, I was candid with you... that was a mistake. I gave you more credit than you are due.

Karma indeed, your fate awaits you.

Goodbye.
 
trainspotter said:
1) Show me where I have not shown you respect? At all times I have answered your posts with the respect they deserve.
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You where inferring I was misrepresenting myself.


You missed the point totally... you CLAIM to be a big property holder, I have taken that at face value as a fact. Given the tone of previous posts I was suggesting you provide me the same courtesy.

trainspotter said:
3) Well done you ! So you understand property then? The sun is still shining. You just have to know where to look is all.

4) Nothing to add here other than I started in property in February 1991.
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Try not to condescend... you are not the only successful person out there.

trainspotter said:
5) The economist I quoted was voicing his opinion in regards to property and it had nothing to do with Macquarie’s bank perspective? He was freelance writing for the Australian.
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Sorry, my eyes glazed over when he started on about structural not cyclical... might as well have said "new paradigm", its different this time.

trainspotter said:
6) No, you misinterpreted my post, it does not matter who the economist is or for which bank they work for. I was asking YOU if you were an economist and the economist I quoted also referenced the RESERVE BANK as guidance. Are they ALL wrong?
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Have you not noticed that most are most of the time? They don't call it the dismal science for nothing.... YES most of them are wrong and if they where not hacks they would be wealthy, after all how could you not be if your insight was good?

trainspotter said:
7) Nevertheless it is the economics we have. Why are you sprouting this BLAH? The topic is about house “prices” and not what is wrong with the teachings of Keynesianism that suits a Western democracy? HUH ?? BIG red herring here ?
Click to expand...

LOL... What? That somehow means its valid and aligned with reality? Its not blah, it is key to the environment you operate in and in fact key to the reason property has worked so well in this country. I am quite sure you don't even really understand the true reason property has been a good investment.

trainspotter said:
8) Seriously WTF …. No seriously WTF?? Have you been asleep at the wheel when property lit up in the last 12 months?? Ummmm 20% according to ABS figures in some capital cities?? WTF ??
Click to expand...

20% is a cherry picked headline number disregarding costs, property type etc etc... many investments have out preformed in the last 12 mths. Don't WTF me, you are being a tad myopic.

trainspotter said:
9) Man you speak some sheete. It is that simple but you have somehow made it extremely complicated by the verbosity you have displayed with your nonsensical answer.
Click to expand...

You are ignorant.

trainspotter said:
And now for this ........ Energy prices have been rising for the past 3 years and will continue to rise to prop up the inefficiencies of the industry.
Click to expand...

Ahuh.... LOL.


Nope gold was mentioned in passing, I would hardly call it banging on.

I have posted plenty with relevance to property price yet you in your own words are only interested in price with complete disregard to fundamentals. A fool knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. You demand we talk about price alone, talk about dogma.

I have no more time for you.
 

Now wait a minute here Mr Z. How much are you renting for? Seeing as you are making 20% gains in other areas and admit that single digits would have been possible in RE BUT you are renting?? HUH ?? Did you factor this "dead" rent money into your matrix?

YOU were the one that said you made your money out of property and put it into gold. I recall you said to robots that he would "poo" himself over the size of your holdings. YOU were the one that said it was easy money playing the property sector. The amount of developments you listed that you stayed "clean hands" on SHOULD have returned a handsome reward.

A home is a home and not an "investment" ? WTF?? I buy and sell property to MAKE money. I also have my PPOR which I can sell TAX FREE !! If this is not the greatest "investment" then I don't know what is??

I really don't give a toss if you own your home or not BUT you sure seem to have a lot to say for someone who does not have a financial stake in property. The pressure you are receiving to buy your own PPOR is how did you put it? "Maybe this time next year if I keep ducking and weaving to keep domestic harmony" Happy wife, happy life dude. You stick to your guns there Big Fella.

I am far from going on the attack. I have answered your posts with candour and also with a slight touch of gullibility because I actually believed what you were posting. I am waiting to see robots "poo" himself actually.

It appears my Karma has run over your Dogma.

And a good day to you to Sir !
 

Very good summary. I would add our top four banks are still AA-rated and we have APRA doing a fab job. Also population growth into a supply challenged property market and full employment.


We will not have a 30% pull back unless unemployment goes much higher than 5.3% or mortgage rates go above 9-10%.

For the first to happen, you need China to correct severely. For the latter, bank wholesale funding costs to go through the roof (i.e. US/Japan debt default scenario).

At these levels, inner city in CBD locations will range trade for the next 6-12 months or so and then push up again due to pent-up demand. If the last spike is anything to go by, this will happen sooner rather than later but you don't need to chase the market either.

Ultimately, ressie is a symbiotic relationship between demand (good but affordability an issue for the schleps), supply (very good for the vendors, very bad for the new entrants/renters) and debt (not so good unless you have assets).
 

Again assumptions... I am not renting. LOL, work that out smart man.


I never gave percentages or any hint of asset allocation.

LOL... it depends what you call a motza, does it not? Yes it was worthwhile.

For a guy trying to belittle someone with CBA money box references and the suggestion of owing a bar or two being the size of it making him poop shouldn't take a whole lot... with all due.


trainspotter said:
A home is a home and not an "investment" ? WTF?? I buy and sell property to MAKE money. I also have my PPOR which I can sell TAX FREE !! If this is not the greatest "investment" then I don't know what is??
Click to expand...

You don't know what is then.


So current ownership is qualification for having an opinion? Come now... more foolishness.

My wife is happy... again you assume too much.

trainspotter said:
I am far from going on the attack. I have answered your posts with candour and also with a slight touch of gullibility because I actually believed what you were posting. I am waiting to see robots "poo" himself actually.
Click to expand...

Nope, you are an aggressive little...

trainspotter said:
It appears my Karma has run over your Dogma.

And a good day to you to Sir !
Click to expand...

Ahhhh the righteous...
 
hello,

gidday everybody, robots in da house

oh well great writings again today on the property thread, its still looking good a troll from one of the bucket shop joints on the www, you know the gold bug types

just amazing they everywhere in society now, oh well

plenty of homes still around for 200k-300k, 3-4x average income ratio so no bubble in my view and I know Sinner has the data to indicate that

thankyou
associate professor robots
 
I thought you had said your Goodbyes Mr Z ?

Still waiting for robots to poop himself BTW.

I will be on my launch drinking to your heath. Tootlepip Mr Z.
 

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how the hell do i put this whole thread on ignore , its always on the top of latest posts and like a car accident im drawn to reading it . if i cant see it i wont look at it .......... i need help .........

its like politics or AFL threads ... full of one eyed supporters that "" generally "" fail to see both points of view .....
 
hello,

classic trainspotter

here's my launch, but i dont have a couple of bottles of top class, just a plastic bag and can of chrome spray paint, hehehehehehehe

thankyou
associate professor robots
 

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