The future of Australian property prices

Mr Z said:

I love the ignorant souls who use the term goldbug! Anyway, what are we in? Year nine or so of the gold bull with not one down year yet. Compounding at around 17% and yet we still have ignorant detractors who can't tell a bug from and investor.... all in all a good sign!

Pls don't try and belittle me Robot's, you'd poop if you new the truth.... LOL and I made my initial stake in property, which makes it all the more amusing to me.

Click to expand...

hello,

classic,

oh well lets us know then, 1 bar, 2 bars, 10 bars? or you got stocks? tell us

many here have disclosed interests, whats yours

thankyou
professor robots

hello,

good evening everyone

can we please keep the thread on track "the future of house prices"

any gold discussion should be conducted in the commodities thread or over at the bucket shop forums on the www

my apologies, thanks for understanding

thankyou
associate professor robots

Why? Would you believe me even if I saw fit to tell.

Mr Z said:

That is just BS, plain and simple! Major inflation is on its way, that much is unavoidable with what has happened globally across the last decade. This guy is living in a bubble if he truly believes that! Its about the only thing that will save the nominal price of housing if it takes hold rapidly enough. I suspect it will not but that is another story, anyway I am interested in the real price of housing so its the relative appreciation of other assets and wages that interests me.

Sounds like a this time its different argument! You know they thought the same way in Ireland, they now have empty suburbs! Not that I think we are going to be hit that hard but they used many of the same arguments presented here.

LOL... in terms of gold its falling, that I like

Click to expand...

How long you been an economist with Macquarie bank there Mr Z ? Notice he refers to the Reserve Bank as his source of info as well. Are they wrong and you are right?

WHY is major inflation on it's way Mr Z ? I thought we just had bit of major inflation which is why interest rates went up to curb this phenomenon of rising house prices. (20% from March to March over a 12 month period according to the ABS) It certainly worked with borrowing levels dropping to their lowest in 9 years.

You say you made your money out of property and now have switched to gold. Gold has been bullish for 9 years you say? How long has property been doing the same Mr Z ?

robots said:

hello,

good evening everyone

can we please keep the thread on track "the future of house prices"

any gold discussion should be conducted in the commodities thread or over at the bucket shop forums on the www

my apologies, thanks for understanding

thankyou
associate professor robots

Click to expand...

Hey you started the slinging, don't go complaining to mum!

Mr Z said:

Why? Would you believe me even if I saw fit to tell.

Click to expand...

I would if you posted the truth in the "Gold where is it heading" thread.

hello,

just discussion and debate Mr Z, hit the ignore button man

top posts trainspotter

thankyou
associate professor robots

hello,

just in case Ubi doesnt get back to us tonite i happened to catch Alan Kohler on ABC news just then

sharemarket down 4.25% since Monday 9th August 2010, not sure what total down is from when Ubi posted up, oh well

and when Julia G introduces stamp duty equivalents to RE it creates an interesting situation

anyone heard from Dowdy?

thankyou
professor robots

trainspotter said:

How long you been an economist with Macquarie bank there Mr Z ? Notice he refers to the Reserve Bank as his source of info as well. Are they wrong and you are right?

WHY is major inflation on it's way Mr Z ? I thought we just had bit of major inflation which is why interest rates went up to curb this phenomenon of rising house prices. (20% from March to March over a 12 month period according to the ABS) It certainly worked with borrowing levels dropping to their lowest in 9 years.

You say you made your money out of property and now have switched to gold. Gold has been bullish for 9 years you say? How long has property been doing the same Mr Z ?

Click to expand...

1. Show me the respect I have shown you and take my claims at face value. I have taken you at your word, you take me at mine.

2. There is no way you can know with certainty any claims I make are true so it makes making them redundant, just as I cannot know for sure what you say is true. It should become apparent over time that I know my stuff when it comes to gold... call me out if you feel I am lying.

3. Property yes, small developments, townhouses in premium suburbs - small subdivisions and niche housing where we found lack of supply in the market eg: Five bedroom houses in Brighton where catching over the odds for a while, busy exec's, lots of loot and very little supply at the time. Definitely not big time but the market was great and it was very rewarding. I was also holding down a job at the time, frankly it amazed me we could achieve what we achieved... in a normal market we'd have not been nearly as successful, but hey the sun was shinning and all that.

4. I started with gold in 2001, but as you should be aware if you have "lots of property" changing your investment mix and commitments is a gradual process, its not like swapping 100K of equity in a house for a stack of the yellow stuff the week after settlement. Its been a process of learning the gold market in detail, stocks, metal, futures etc.

5. Economists that work for banks are *****'s that talk their employers book. Follow anyone of them for a while and you soon come to realize that.

6. Mac Bank are only here because of the deposit guarantee, they almost blew themselves up, there was some heavy short betting on the fact that they would if you remember. Much of it US based.... the analysts over there really saw them as a great risk. So are they the ones to listen too?

7. What passes for economics in this country is largely a distorted version of Keynesianism. Yes I have studied economics and late in life I have come to realise just how much clap trap is being taught. Why then is it being taught? Its a view that suits the banking and government interests in a western democracy. It is really that simple in the end. For my money the Austrian School makes the most sense and has by far the best track record, unfortunately they preach discipline and thus are totally incompatible with modern democracies...:

8. Yes property has been in the last leg of its bull market since the early nineties, another reason why it is likely close to its end. Gold is ten years in and will likely be done and dusted by the 17 to 22 odd year mark. 20 years for the sake of round numbers.

9. Inflation is an the increase in the money supply, although its not quite that simple. Typically people are discussing CPI when they refer to inflation, a rising CPI is just one of the many possible effects of an overly inflated money supply. It typically shows up late in the process, the first part of the process involves, well to put it simply a party for all, with strong asset prices all round (ringing bells?) Its the second half that really bites and when it starts it is like being a little pregnant... its too late, the deed is done. Now take a look at the things in your life with true pricing power. Medical Insurance, medical anything, power bills, basic food stuff's like meat, government charges etc etc (yes even housing to a degree, although it tends to lose traction as things heat up for a couple of reasons)... that is the true reflection of the rate of inflation in the system. Its on its way, it is unavoidable and the pain for property will come when the bond markets discount it and the central banks are forced to fight it.... of course we could go Zimbawee, but then the whole nominal vs real debate arises! This is not an if, its a when.... especially if they continue to pull all the stops in fighting collapsing credit, which is deflationary but there we enter into a discussion of the various parts of the money supply and what is impacted by what type of money. Like I said its not actually that straight forward.

Anyway, don't take my word for it... in a handful of years it should be becoming quite evident, however at the time other arising issues will be used to obscure the matter, sharply rising energy prices for one. Which BTW is my bet for the next great bull market, which is good and bad. We will be living in interesting times FWIW.

Now I am out of time... CYA.

robots said:

hello,

classic,

oh well lets us know then, 1 bar, 2 bars, 10 bars? or you got stocks? tell us

many here have disclosed interests, whats yours

thankyou
professor robots

Click to expand...

Problem seems to me Robots is that you only know and have your stakes in just property. A lack of diversification is dangerous.

Most onto the gold story hold the physical metal, I hold silver as the primary. But I also have property investments as well as Resource Stocks.

And yes gold has outdone property by a huge amount since 2001. And the way governments are printing money there is still plenty of time to get on the gold train yet.

Oh no.... this thread is all about property, where were we, uh oh property not looking too bright and raising a bit of blood pressure I can see.

Tut tut there brothers, tomorrow is another day.

Mr Z said:

1. Show me the respect I have shown you and take my claims at face value. I have taken you at your word, you take me at mine.

7. What passes for economics in this country is largely a distorted version of Keynesianism. Yes I have studied economics and late in life I have come to realise just how much clap trap is being taught. Why then is it being taught? Its a view that suits the banking and government interests in a western democracy. It is really that simple in the end. For my money the Austrian School makes the most sense and has by far the best track record, unfortunately they preach discipline and thus are totally incompatible with modern democracies...:

Click to expand...

hello,

ooohhhh noooooo, look out

special shout out to Kincella, hope alls well and you get a chance to log on tomorrow

thankyou
professor robots

robots said:

hello,

ooohhhh noooooo, look out

thankyou
professor robots

Click to expand...

Very mature 'professor', where is the respect?

I for one got something out of your post Mr Z - thank you

Do you ever say anything of value Robots?

hello,

hehehehehehehe, you set that one up for me MrZ

yes, buy property

thankyou
associate professor robots

Mr Z said:

Do you ever say anything of value Robots?

Click to expand...

Mr Z, I cannot but agree, short invaluable posts that amount to not much at all.

I hold no property apart from my home, but for months I have been trying to access the link beneath all Robots` posts, all to no avail.

Says to me there is a certain lack of substance.

hello,

yes and i post up the Melbourne auction clearance rate every saturday night at approximately 7.30pm, sometimes its a bit later if Enzo takes a little longer than usual to put them up

thankyou
professor robots

hello,

my apologies regarding the link, something fishy going on with the server so to Do The Right Thing i have removed it

its not easy self-funding your own research as many completing their master or phd would be aware, i just cant come to terms with the rudeness of creating a website and asking for donations

thankyou
associate professor robots

Yeah Buckfont I tried that and got nowhere.

The hardcore say that a home is a home and not an investment. As long as you are not strung out keeping it, in a good job etc its one of life's necessitates in this country.

Ironically I am forestalling the purchase of a house right now, I don't want to do it just yet but other circumstances are putting pressure on me. Swallowing a loss on a domestic property will really stick in my craw but it is looking increasingly unavoidable. Maybe this time next year if I keep ducking and weaving to keep domestic harmony

Life is a funny thing! and you know the moment I settle on a place the fore told will come about, just cause Murphy is a bastard!

brebre said:

Very mature 'professor', where is the respect?

I for one got something out of your post Mr Z - thank you

Click to expand...

Mr Z said:

Do you ever say anything of value Robots?

Click to expand...

robots said:

hello,

hehehehehehehe, you set that one up for me MrZ

yes, buy property

thankyou
associate professor robots

Click to expand...

luv you longtime.......

by the way well done on being ASF investor of the year 5 years running .

glad you took note of my "top " call tho

nunthewiser said:

luv you longtime.......

by the way well done on being ASF investor of the year 5 years running .

glad you took note of my "top " call tho

Click to expand...

and he is having troubles funding himself? Oh please....

Point me to this competition if you will, I would like to read up just for fun.