tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
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Over 25 yrs I've studied a lot of what is available in the technical analysis field.
I've also worked for 2 yrs with people who are amazing with Data analysis and
coding on a level well beyond the capabilities of 99.95% of us. AI is the future
for those who can access it.
Does this mean we are all doomed --- I dont think so AI will be in a space we
will not go to it will find things that we cant see.--Just another player--a powerful
one at that.
While 80% of Technical Analysis is worth the time to become proficient in the Technical space.
Little is of practical value in ISOLATION.
I'm not going to enter into argument on which is best and which is rubbish.
Rather Ill concentrate on that which I have found as valuable in my own trading
What I look for and Why---you will then need to plot your own path--hopefully with
more purpose and Clear---er Direction.
Technical analysis at best leads you to a trading opportunity whether that be long or short.
Risk managements saves you from your own bias and the fallibility of any form of analysis.
Reward to risk on capital traded is your score card--the money follows.
The most powerful technical tool is the analysis of PATTERNS
Not the first to see this.
Gann
Elliott
Steidlmayer
Williams
Gartley
Edwards and McGee
Pring
Van Tharp
All looked at Patterns in their own way.
Patterns of meaning form in all sorts of DATA not just price.
Volume
Range
Seasonality
Open interest
Long and Short holders.
Course of Trades
Time
There Are Many more places to look.
There are a great many patterns but by far
my favorite is Consolidations. In Price/Range/Volume
Everything happening IN Patterns leads to what Happens
OUTSIDE of Patterns.
More often than not it reads IN CONTEXT with clarity.
The value lies in
What happens in these patterns
Where it happens in a chart/data EG
After a prolonged move.
After a short move
After a wide range very high volume bar.
There are a lot more
When it happens in a chart/data
After a long period of time
Straight after another consolidation of size or Very small
Mondays-every May-
After High volume
After Low Volume
There are a lot more
Why it happens.
News.
Volume
World economics
Demand incoming or leaving.
Again many more.
But in every case ONE occurrence IN A pattern can trigger events to occur
outside the pattern and that's when you want to be on it!
The pattern as you will find in isolation has little value as they will fail just as often as
they conform to standard technical theory. Of little value when you want to trade the Chart/Data.
30-50% success maybe acceptable in some models but frustrating and useless to others.
Particularly those Trading in a discretionary manner.
The second Most powerful Tool is
The analysis of single Occurrences or Occurrence Clusters Inside or Outside of Patterns
Trends are patterns!
They can be
Single or Groups of Bars
Volume
News catalysts.
Chart Characteristics.
Time.
I've also worked for 2 yrs with people who are amazing with Data analysis and
coding on a level well beyond the capabilities of 99.95% of us. AI is the future
for those who can access it.
Does this mean we are all doomed --- I dont think so AI will be in a space we
will not go to it will find things that we cant see.--Just another player--a powerful
one at that.
While 80% of Technical Analysis is worth the time to become proficient in the Technical space.
Little is of practical value in ISOLATION.
I'm not going to enter into argument on which is best and which is rubbish.
Rather Ill concentrate on that which I have found as valuable in my own trading
What I look for and Why---you will then need to plot your own path--hopefully with
more purpose and Clear---er Direction.
Technical analysis at best leads you to a trading opportunity whether that be long or short.
Risk managements saves you from your own bias and the fallibility of any form of analysis.
Reward to risk on capital traded is your score card--the money follows.
The most powerful technical tool is the analysis of PATTERNS
Not the first to see this.
Gann
Elliott
Steidlmayer
Williams
Gartley
Edwards and McGee
Pring
Van Tharp
All looked at Patterns in their own way.
Patterns of meaning form in all sorts of DATA not just price.
Volume
Range
Seasonality
Open interest
Long and Short holders.
Course of Trades
Time
There Are Many more places to look.
There are a great many patterns but by far
my favorite is Consolidations. In Price/Range/Volume
Everything happening IN Patterns leads to what Happens
OUTSIDE of Patterns.
More often than not it reads IN CONTEXT with clarity.
The value lies in
What happens in these patterns
Where it happens in a chart/data EG
After a prolonged move.
After a short move
After a wide range very high volume bar.
There are a lot more
When it happens in a chart/data
After a long period of time
Straight after another consolidation of size or Very small
Mondays-every May-
After High volume
After Low Volume
There are a lot more
Why it happens.
News.
Volume
World economics
Demand incoming or leaving.
Again many more.
But in every case ONE occurrence IN A pattern can trigger events to occur
outside the pattern and that's when you want to be on it!
The pattern as you will find in isolation has little value as they will fail just as often as
they conform to standard technical theory. Of little value when you want to trade the Chart/Data.
30-50% success maybe acceptable in some models but frustrating and useless to others.
Particularly those Trading in a discretionary manner.
The second Most powerful Tool is
The analysis of single Occurrences or Occurrence Clusters Inside or Outside of Patterns
Trends are patterns!
They can be
Single or Groups of Bars
Volume
News catalysts.
Chart Characteristics.
Time.
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