So is the COVID-19 drama over, or will this go on for some time?

[sptrawler]

The virus can travel 8 meters, so if you stand there long enough 2 meters might not be enough, especially if you are a funny bunch making each other laugh towards each other, apparently laugh and singing can be nearly as bad as coughing.

So why in the shops do they have x marks the spot every 1.5mtrs? Then a big queue and that is in a confined space, as opposed to outdoors.
A degree of common sense has to prevail.
If anyone was coughing, laughing or being in anyway stupid one would walk off.

 

[Sdajii]

Which country where you in, and what are you doing in Australia? Do you have family here?
Imho, now is the time to go back with family if this is an option

I'm a multigeneration white Australian citizen, although I do have a couple of foreign friends stuck in Australia without work visas doing it pretty tough. I was in Asia (long story which I won't get into here) for about 6 years, making a quick visit to my hometown of Melbourne for about 2 weeks each summer for the last 2 or 3 years (I arrived in February, expecting to be back in Asia in early to mid March). My father abandoned me when I was 4 years old and my mother is a toxic person worse than my father who would not be out of character if she literally watched me die rather than allowing herself to be inconvenienced significantly. Unfortunately I'm not blessed with a supportive family. Usually I would have plenty of friends in Australia I could stay with, particularly in NSW and QLD, but sleeping on a friend's couch isn't legal now, and I can't drive across state borders anyway. Just before the lockdown when I was unable to leave the country but still able to travel within it I had generous offers from friends to have me sleep on their couch/spare room, but with very bad work prospects at the moment I couldn't see a clear exit strategy and didn't want to become a long term couch parasite they couldn't get rid of. I'm confident that I'll somehow claw my way back up, it's not the first time I've been completely down and out. It's probably the most challenging situation to get myself out of that I've ever faced, but I'll get there.

 

[Value Collector]

So why in the shops do they have x marks the spot every 1.5mtrs? Then a big queue and that is in a confined space, as opposed to outdoors.
A degree of common sense has to prevail.
If anyone was coughing, laughing or being in anyway stupid one would walk off.

Being 1.5 meters away is much safer than being shoulder to shoulder, being 8 meters away in impractical, the 1.5 meter rule is a trade off between risk and practicality.

If you stand 1.5 meters from somebody with the virus for 2 minutes its low risk because the chances that enough virus cells to infect you will drift over to you in that short time is low.

But, if you stand 1.5 meters from them for an hour, it is higher risk because you have exposed your self to the situation for much longer and the chance that enough virus cells to infect you will drift over to you is higher.

There are three main factors at play which are Time, Distance and Shielding.

eg, If you can't increase you Distance from the source, then you should reduce the time of exposure, if you can't reduce the distance or time then you should have shielding (Mask).

 

[sptrawler]

Being 1.5 meters away is much safer than being shoulder to shoulder, being 8 meters away in impractical, the 1.5 meter rule is a trade off between risk and practicality.

If you stand 1.5 meters from somebody with the virus for 2 minutes its low risk because the chances that enough virus cells to infect you will drift over to you in that short time is low.

But, if you stand 1.5 meters from them for an hour, it is higher risk because you have exposed your self to the situation for much longer and the chance that enough virus cells to infect you will drift over to you is higher.

There are three main factors at play which are Time, Distance and Shielding.

eg, If you can't increase you Distance from the source, then you should reduce the time of exposure, if you can't reduce the distance or time then you should have shielding (Mask).

You are very much like my wife, everything has a place, everything lines up, the corners need to be sharp.
Your wife must be easy going, like me.

 

[Value Collector]

You are very much like my wife, everything has a place, everything lines up, the corners need to be sharp.
Your wife must be easy going, like me.

Hahaha, I am not really a pedantic person, my first posting when I joined the Army was into the CBRR Squadron (Chemical, Biological and Radiological Response Squadron), So I have had a lot of time spent thinking about various things in the past, and had many conversation with the civil scientists that supported us (I have curious mind).

 

[sptrawler]

Hahaha, I am not really a pedantic person, my first posting when I joined the Army was into the CBRR Squadron (Chemical, Biological and Radiological Response Squadron), So I have had a lot of time spent thinking about various things in the past, and had many conversation with the civil scientists that supported us (I have curious mind).

Yes my wife won a Commonwealth scholarship for 4th and 5th year, accepted to Monash, from Perth.
Now wont watch any news or current affairs, soduko nut, cross words, 20 books a week, computer jigsaws.
Absolutely normal.

 

[tech/a]

I've been watching lots of discussion since this began.

This is my opinion.

Things are very orderly.
We have had 2 OUTLIERS
(1) Covid 19 pandemic while most got hit me included there was time to get out well before the bottom Failure to recognize an outlier is costly
(2) Trillions of Dollars were and are being placed back into world economies so we see a V type recovery ---not a bounce.

The FUTURE ---- Will be different.
Look for up coming outliers---like
(1) A treatment
(2) A Vaccine.
(3) Persistently high continuing death tolls---this will have an eroding effect particularly before (1) or (2).

China will see negative growth as the world pulls away from the Chinese dominance in free trade.
This will certainly affect us. Particularly mining.
I see a very long period of slow negative markets to flat markets at the very best.
I think that Stock and commodities on a whole will become boring and very difficult to trade long term as any form of volatility
virtually disappears. (After a treatment or Vaccine) and people ---some--back to the NEW normal---which will be for most existence.

The effects on the world will continue for a very long time.
International Travel will be Crucified and will not recover to 2019 type prosperity.
So its becoming clear ---to me --- that innovation will be what Im looking for for investment
I will be looking for short term and long term companies or commodities that will have something that
the world wants.

My thoughts are to watch for OUTLIERS and take advantage of them as soon as you recognize them.
They move world markets hard and Fast.

Again Im being brief for clarity.
Much is written---much I discard.
Outliers can be seen the rest is noise.

 

[Tumbarumba]

I doubt this is anywhere near over inAustralia.
Our normal flu season has yet to hit, ( June to September is normal).
Even before Covid19 there were over 1,100 flu deaths in 2017 and over 900 last year.
People lack sense and are becoming complacent; plus the economic pressure to ease lockdown restrictions will become overriding.
Inadequate protection of our health/care workers will lead to many choosing to put family first.
A vaccine for Corona strains ( Asian flu, bird flu, SARS, Spanish flu etc.) has never been achieved.
I doubt society or financial markets will breakdown, main effect will be deaths in the elderly and immuno compromised and an increase in poverty.
All IMO.

 

[PZ.]

Seems to be countries are starting to get Covid19 under control, is this the start of the end for Covid19 or just the beginning?

Just the beginning. This will drag on for so long that something else will happen in the meantime and we won't know if the "end" had ever happened.

Will we see economies start to come back to normal as quarantine is lifted or do people still think it will get worse?

"Normal" will mean something else. For economies - especially ours - to get back to Jan 2020 will take so long that sadly, many of us including me won't be around to see it.

 

[wayneL]

I've been watching lots of discussion since this began.

This is my opinion.

Things are very orderly.
We have had 2 OUTLIERS
(1) Covid 19 pandemic while most got hit me included there was time to get out well before the bottom Failure to recognize an outlier is costly
(2) Trillions of Dollars were and are being placed back into world economies so we see a V type recovery ---not a bounce.

The FUTURE ---- Will be different.
Look for up coming outliers---like
(1) A treatment
(2) A Vaccine.
(3) Persistently high continuing death tolls---this will have an eroding effect particularly before (1) or (2).

China will see negative growth as the world pulls away from the Chinese dominance in free trade.
This will certainly affect us. Particularly mining.
I see a very long period of slow negative markets to flat markets at the very best.
I think that Stock and commodities on a whole will become boring and very difficult to trade long term as any form of volatility
virtually disappears. (After a treatment or Vaccine) and people ---some--back to the NEW normal---which will be for most existence.

The effects on the world will continue for a very long time.
International Travel will be Crucified and will not recover to 2019 type prosperity.
So its becoming clear ---to me --- that innovation will be what Im looking for for investment
I will be looking for short term and long term companies or commodities that will have something that
the world wants.

My thoughts are to watch for OUTLIERS and take advantage of them as soon as you recognize them.
They move world markets hard and Fast.

Again Im being brief for clarity.
Much is written---much I discard.
Outliers can be seen the rest is noise.

Exactly.

The stock market, well, large caps anyway, are no longer a true price discovery mechanism. Central Banks are effectively nationalising large companies, rather than letting the market decide their actual current value.

That is the new reality. That in itself is/was an outlier and there were/are opportunities there.

Also I suspect precious metals are also being manipulated.

So outliers to me means looking for opportunities as to what central banks are up to, and others outside that reality.

The hard part is staying on top of the *real* information flow and disregarding vested interests, propaganda and economic bias.

 

[jbocker]

China will see negative growth as the world pulls away from the Chinese dominance in free trade.
This will certainly affect us. Particularly mining.

Agree there will be a move away from China. Maybe our mining will be taken up but many smaller economies as they try to re-establish their own industries to become more self sufficient or initiate manufacturing and infrastructure to become an alternative to China. Australia might take on the challenge and go some way to use our own abundance of raw resources to produce higher valued materials.

 

[tech/a]

Agree there will be a move away from China. Maybe our mining will be taken up but many smaller economies as they try to re-establish their own industries to become more self sufficient or initiate manufacturing and infrastructure to become an alternative to China. Australia might take on the challenge and go some way to use our own abundance of raw resources to produce higher valued materials.

I think demand will remain

How it’s filled will alter
This will take many years to filter to a new normality

Emerging economies like India Africa well also be affected.

lots of variants

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The FUTURE ---- Will be different.
Look for up coming outliers---like
(1) A treatment
(2) A Vaccine.
(3) Persistently high continuing death tolls---

& perhaps a fourth; mutating virus.

(Spanish flu had three goes; most deaths from the second wave)

 

[sptrawler]

& perhaps a fourth; mutating virus.

(Spanish flu had three goes; most deaths from the second wave)

I tend to agree with you Donna, as was said earlier the virus has yet to run its course in Africa yet, I wont breath easy untill it is eradicated there. There are some horrible things it could mutate with there, hopefully a vaccine is found, before a mutation occurs.

 

[jbocker]

OK I got no idea here, but if we sell a Australian natural resource in Australia to another Australian company to produce something, Is a royalty still paid to the govt?
If it were why would we do that, couldn't we get rid of that tax (and while we are at it a few others) to help rebuild some manufacturing like some steel production?
We can get the tax back selling exports and some from wages. A working person pays a wage tax and not take a support benefit. A double wammy.

 

[qldfrog]

OK I got no idea here, but if we sell a Australian natural resource in Australia to another Australian company to produce something, Is a royalty still paid to the govt?
If it were why would we do that, couldn't we get rid of that tax (and while we are at it a few others) to help rebuild some manufacturing like some steel production?
We can get the tax back selling exports and some from wages. A working person pays a wage tax and not take a support benefit. A double wammy.

You understand this is actually the opposite of the wishes of roughly 45 to 50% of the population .
Less tax, and so less benefits, more work and less dependencies on redistribution, more rich and successful people here. Current labour platform is decimated
But fully supporting the idea for the sake of our children

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Results just released regarding the incidence of corona virus amongst the c

I tend to agree with you Donna, as was said earlier the virus has yet to run its course in Africa yet, I wont breath easy untill it is eradicated there. There are some horrible things it could mutate with there, hopefully a vaccine is found, before a mutation occurs.

what gets me is there are now UN calls to "help Africa". The kleptocrats will have a field day

Many Nigerians gloat that Covid-19 is mainly targeting the country's elite, particularly politicians, despite warnings that the life-threatening respiratory illness could hit the poor as well. The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control has recorded more than 600 cases since the end of February - most of them people who had been abroad, and those they had interacted with after their return to Africa's most-populous state, which has a population of about 200 million.

So far, Nigeria's list of people who got or have died from Covid-19 includes President Muhammadu Buhari's chief of staff, politicians, heads of government agencies, former ambassadors and their aides or relatives. These are the kind of people who normally jet off to the UK, Germany, or the US at the slightest headache because Nigeria's state hospitals are poorly funded, run-down, and lack adequate equipment.

 

[jbocker]

You understand this is actually the opposite of the wishes of roughly 45 to 50% of the population .
Less tax, and so less benefits, more work and less dependencies on redistribution, more rich and successful people here. Current labour platform is decimated
But fully supporting the idea for the sake of our children

Times are changing, I think and hope we might want to start rebuilding a labour base. A technologically skilled labour base moving on from the hammer and sledge that we left many years ago. The issue may be that we actually get through the virus without as much pain that will drive that change. Or we choose do something different, eg invest in tourism building towns and resorts, we hopefully be seen as a safe country to holiday in.
We cannot stay the same because the rest of the world wont.

 

[qldfrog]

We cannot stay the same because the rest of the world wont.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Financial Times and other media reported that remdesivir, a Gilead Sciences drug, “flopped” in its first randomized, clinical trial. Gilead shares dropped 4.3 per cent and were briefly halted for volatility.