So is the COVID-19 drama over, or will this go on for some time?

[Value Collector]

Just a personal observation I've made, largely through work, is that it's a minority of people who can stay the course with anything difficult and which has no definite end point. That lack of a firm end point, a specific time, really gets to them.

Psychologically this is much the same really. Not much fun, no definite end point and all a bit miserable really. Some will cope just fine but many won't.

Just an observation which I think applies to many things since it comes down to human psychology.

I don’t know, maybe it’s my army background that has made me a bit more self disciplined, but I don’t find this self isolation thing that hard to follow.

sure it’s different than my life before, but I have just built a new routine and it’s easy.

my basic outline at the moment is each day I make sure I accomplish 3 things.

1. Work on something around the house that I have been avoiding or is routine maintaining, or to do with investments

2. do some self improvement, eg reading, study or some exercise.

3. Enjoy some time with my wife, watching a movie, playing a board game etc.

that stuffs can easily fill in a whole day, especially if you add in some other activities to your routine such a catching up with video calls etc to people out side your home etc.

 

[Value Collector]

Here is the latest stats for Australia. If we are still getting 50 new cases a day during a lock down then what might happen if everything opened up? It could quite easily jump back to 300 to 400 cases a day and then explode from there. We are no where near over it.
View attachment 102408

some of those 50 cases are probably caused by people being idiots.

I don’t see us getting to zero cases a day unless people take this thing more seriously.

 

[jbocker]

I have put in the statistics for Sweden and Australia. Both have the same principals with combatting Covid-19, Sweden have trusted their people to abide by it, Australia have enforced it. I use Sweden as it has some isolation wrt to borders albeit nowhere near what our isolation is. People willing to utilize their free lifestyles, similar but I suggest Swedish would be more liberal.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The reason I posted this topic was I have friends who are madly buying up shares at the moment calling the market cheap

. As long as they're not using debt; clearly things are "cheaper" but isn't the value about the same?

I tend to take the view that "Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time" (Dr John Hussman) and I'd think its likely the future stream of cash could be diminished somewhat. There's all these new factors at play, not the least the expanding balance sheets of Central Banks, and then sluggish economies, soaring job losses and a real pivot on what's needed and useful going forward.

One of the best aspects of the current situation is that there could well be an accelerated reset, with structural reform and emerging technologies pushing forward in a timeline of months or 1-2 years that would otherwise take a decade. I'm taking the opportunity to buy some of the 'new industries' that have an environmental benefit. Because if there's one takeout of shutting down for a few months , it's that we can't go back. So let's go forward.

 

[Bill M]

but I don’t find this self isolation thing that hard to follow.

I don't find it that hard either. The big bonus was when they said you can exercise. I walk 7 to 8 KMS a day so for me that did not change. I've been clipped back on Supermarket visits to only when essential so that is not so bothersome either.

But I do a lot of O/S holidays and cruises, that has changed and it is disappointing but I conditioned myself that this year is wiped out for that anyway so I don't worry that much about that either.

Personally I think the Governments of AUS are doing the right thing. I would hate to see the daily death rates in Sydney like we are seeing in New York, 700 + people or so.
---
The city’s coronavirus death toll continued climbing to alarming heights with 722 new COVID-19 fatalities over 24 hours, bringing the grim total to 12,199 by Friday afternoon.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/nyc-coronavirus-deaths-hit-12199-as-confirmed-cases-climb/
---

 

[Smurf1976]

I don’t know, maybe it’s my army background that has made me a bit more self disciplined, but I don’t find this self isolation thing that hard to follow.

Never been in the Army but likewise I don't find it difficult.

Elaborating on my previous comment though, I've done plenty of work where there are no set hours but the job must be finished because it'll make the news, the actual mainstream news, if it isn't. That's the reality essential services.

Some people cope with that just fine, they see the whole picture that some days are easy, a few turn out truly miserable, and overall it was pretty reasonable. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose but overall not bad.

Many really couldn't cope with that though. They just couldn't look at the overall picture, see that it was actually a pretty good deal, but instead focused on the negatives even though they weren't that frequent. No amount of rational logic would get them to see it differently.

I suspect this lockdown situation is somewhat similar psychologically in that it is indeed open ended, there's no set finish date, and it's for the good of the community rather than an individual personally. Some will see the overall context but others will focus only on the negatives.

 

[Value Collector]

I don't find it that hard either. The big bonus was when they said you can exercise. I walk 7 to 8 KMS a day so for me that did not change. I've been clipped back on Supermarket visits to only when essential so that is not so bothersome either.

But I do a lot of O/S holidays and cruises, that has changed and it is disappointing but I conditioned myself that this year is wiped out for that anyway so I don't worry that much about that either.

Personally I think the Governments of AUS are doing the right thing. I would hate to see the daily death rates in Sydney like we are seeing in New York, 700 + people or so.
---
The city’s coronavirus death toll continued climbing to alarming heights with 722 new COVID-19 fatalities over 24 hours, bringing the grim total to 12,199 by Friday afternoon.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/nyc-coronavirus-deaths-hit-12199-as-confirmed-cases-climb/
---

Yeah, the O/S travel is a bummer, I was meant to be in New Zealand right now, and in November I have a UK trip booked which probably will end up being canned.

But as far as sacrifices to fight the virus go, staying at home is a pretty easy war to fight.

Ask any young guy if they would go to war to defend Australia against an invader and they puff their chest and say they would die for Australia, They kinda show their true colours though when it turns out they can't even stay at home and watch TV to defend the Nation.

 

[basilio]

We may feel that Australia is getting on top of the Covid virus. All well and good.

But if you check out the John Hopkins website the graphs showing the rate of new infections (reported !) for many countries is not good at all..

India is accelerating as is Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Canada, US, Peru, Sweden, Japan, Chile, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Serbia, Belarus and so on..
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Reality checks:

There has never been a coronavirus vaccine successfully developed before: https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616?section=health

For those pinning their hopes on a COVID-19 vaccine to return life to normal, an Australian expert in vaccine development has a reality check — it probably won't happen soon.

Doesn't look like herd immunity is on the way to save us either: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...na-transparency-uk-vaccine-taskforce/12160440

Dr Ryan also said that even if antibodies were effective there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them and were beginning to offer so-called "herd immunity" to the broader population.

"A lot of preliminary information coming to us right now would suggest quite a low percentage of population have seroconverted (to produce antibodies)," he said.

"The expectation that … the majority in society may have developed antibodies, the general evidence is pointing against that, so it may not solve the problem of governments."

 

[Joe90]

peoples common sense

= sheeple fvckwittery. I've seen three cases of it in three short outings this week. Collected takeaway pizza for dinner, three strangers leaning on the counter jawing, had to ask them to move away so I could collect my order. Local computer shop, needed a new headset for work from home, no controls on the allowed number of customers in a small shop, two clusters of people in the shop gas bagging, no distancing. Didn't enter, waited for them to leave, entered and another group started invading my space at the counter so I left. Local bike shop today to get some bits to setup a bike on my rolling road for the missus; there were over 20 people in there jilling about in clusters, no obvious distancing. Sign on the door "maximum 35 customers" WTF??? Business is booming as no one wants to use public transport at the mo, come in come in,we want your $$$, what virus? I didn't enter and came back just before closing when no one was there. Went to another adjacent outlet to collect the last bit, no customers but seven sales stooges all lined up behind the counter rubbing shoulders I kid you not. I inquired if they all happened to share the same home i.e. a family unit? Received a vacant stare for my trouble.

I get the feeling Australia may have dodged a bullet so far with this pandemic, but its not referred to as "the lucky country" for nothing. There's plenty of complacency and stupidity evident everywhere in public places. I liken this very dangerous virus to a lottery where the tickets are freely available (if you don't manage the exposure risk) and you can't refuse the prize if/when (surprise) you win.

 

[IFocus]

I don’t know, maybe it’s my army background that has made me a bit more self disciplined, but I don’t find this self isolation thing that hard to follow.

I think that's personality VC seen plenty of ex military guys break the rules

 

[qldfrog]

Reality checks:

There has never been a coronavirus vaccine successfully developed before: https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616?section=health


Doesn't look like herd immunity is on the way to save us either: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...na-transparency-uk-vaccine-taskforce/12160440

Like it, i have been repeating this again and again for now more than a month.good to see these few truth become more mainstream and acknowledged.
I know it is not good news.
The other point is that, even if you are treated and recover, by the time you leave the hospital, you are a wreck, can hardly breath, need physio for weeks just to walk and breath, your thinking is affected it is a slow recovery at best

 

[Sdajii]

I don’t know, maybe it’s my army background that has made me a bit more self disciplined, but I don’t find this self isolation thing that hard to follow.

sure it’s different than my life before, but I have just built a new routine and it’s easy.

my basic outline at the moment is each day I make sure I accomplish 3 things.

1. Work on something around the house that I have been avoiding or is routine maintaining, or to do with investments

2. do some self improvement, eg reading, study or some exercise.

3. Enjoy some time with my wife, watching a movie, playing a board game etc.

that stuffs can easily fill in a whole day, especially if you add in some other activities to your routine such a catching up with video calls etc to people out side your home etc.

It's easy for you, and in your circumstances it would be easy for me too. At the other end of the extreme you have someone in my situation. I lost my business, it happened at a really bad time, I have been financially wiped out completely. I was getting set up overseas where my stuff (which I've lost, I arrived in Australia with nothing but hand baggage, didn't even bring my laptop because I was only planning a brief trip), so I've been separated from my stuff (everything from cookware to clothes to books to... everything other than my toothbrush, one book and a few changes of casual summer clothes), my friends, familiar places, my whole way of life, where I live. You have a nice wife to live with, I have just gone from having plenty of girls interested in me and no shortage of dating opportunities to being unable to socialise in a place where I have no intention of staying. I don't own any board games etc. I don't own a bed, I don't have the option of properly storing food in a freezer, etc. I'm experiencing the coldest weather I've been in for quite a few years, and am stuck living with an extremely toxic person, with no option of just going out to get some space. Yes, I can go out for a walk to exercise, I can shop for food with what little money I have, and often spend many hours doing such things, but I literally can't even legally sit down in a park. I never imagined I'd have to consider going on the dole, but I was forced to apply a few weeks ago. They somehow knew that until a few years ago I had a lot of money and a healthy stock portfolio so they rejected my claim. I explained I had spent a few years setting up a business in Asia, and had everything invested in that and because of the situation had lost everything, and they're reviewing it. No one will give me a job, even stocking shelves for minimum wage because they see someone with university qualifications and business history and they (very correctly) figure if they give me a job I'll be off doing something else as soon as I can. People who used to depend on me are doing it super tough and are scared, unable to comprehend that I'm not able to come back. My pets died horrible deaths because I was unable to organise care for them (believe me, I did everything I possibly could, I had someone doing their best to care for them and they had to watch them die and give me updates, it was horrible for everyone involved). I'm lonely in the extreme. My life is a living nightmare.

It's really lovely to know that people like you are in a position to get through this comfortably. I'm honestly very happy for you, but many people are not in a position to cope so well. My life has gone from absolutely wonderful to a complete and utter nightmare no good person should have to endure. My situation is definitely a lot worse than average, but plenty of people are doing it very tough, some worse than me, and plenty of people through no fault of their own are having a terrible time. Just because you are in a position to cope easily (in your shoes I'd be completely comfortable too) doesn't mean you can realistically expect everyone to. I bet I am coping with my situation better than you would.

 

[sptrawler]

= sheeple fvckwittery. I've seen three cases of it in three short outings this week. Collected takeaway pizza for dinner, three strangers leaning on the counter jawing, had to ask them to move away so I could collect my order. Local computer shop, needed a new headset for work from home, no controls on the allowed number of customers in a smalnl shop, two clusters of people in the shop gas bagging, no distancing. Didn't enter, waited for them to leave, entered and another group started invading my space at the counter so I left. Local bike shop today to get some bits to setup a bike on my rolling road for the missus; there were over 20 people in there jilling about in clusters, no obvious distancing. Sign on the door "maximum 35 customers" WTF??? Business is booming as no one wants to use public transport at the mo, come in come in,we want your $$$, what virus? I didn't enter and came back just before closing when no one was there. Went to another adjacent outlet to collect the last bit, no customers but seven sales stooges all lined up behind the counter rubbing shoulders I kid you not. I inquired if they all happened to share the same home i.e. a family unit? Received a vacant stare for my trouble.

I get the feeling Australia may have dodged a bullet so far with this pandemic, but its not referred to as "the lucky country" for nothing. There's plenty of complacency and stupidity evident everywhere in public places. I liken this very dangerous virus to a lottery where the tickets are freely available (if you don't manage the exposure risk) and you can't refuse the prize if/when (surprise) you win.

Well Joe I dont know where you are, but Fri morning I went for a walk on the Mandurah (WA) foreshore and stopped to chat with a group of about 6 oldies.
Huge spacing about 2 metres between each, well within 5 minutes a Ranger comes up and tells everyone to move on, that was at 6.30 in the morning, no wonder we are reducing the infection rate.

 

[Value Collector]

I think that's personality VC seen plenty of ex military guys break the rules

Me too now that I think about it

 

[Value Collector]

It's easy for you, and in your circumstances it would be easy for me too. At the other end of the extreme you have someone in my situation. I lost my business, it happened at a really bad time, I have been financially wiped out completely. I was getting set up overseas where my stuff (which I've lost, I arrived in Australia with nothing but hand baggage, didn't even bring my laptop because I was only planning a brief trip), so I've been separated from my stuff (everything from cookware to clothes to books to... everything other than my toothbrush, one book and a few changes of casual summer clothes), my friends, familiar places, my whole way of life, where I live. You have a nice wife to live with, I have just gone from having plenty of girls interested in me and no shortage of dating opportunities to being unable to socialise in a place where I have no intention of staying. I don't own any board games etc. I don't own a bed, I don't have the option of properly storing food in a freezer, etc. I'm experiencing the coldest weather I've been in for quite a few years, and am stuck living with an extremely toxic person, with no option of just going out to get some space. Yes, I can go out for a walk to exercise, I can shop for food with what little money I have, and often spend many hours doing such things, but I literally can't even legally sit down in a park. I never imagined I'd have to consider going on the dole, but I was forced to apply a few weeks ago. They somehow knew that until a few years ago I had a lot of money and a healthy stock portfolio so they rejected my claim. I explained I had spent a few years setting up a business in Asia, and had everything invested in that and because of the situation had lost everything, and they're reviewing it. No one will give me a job, even stocking shelves for minimum wage because they see someone with university qualifications and business history and they (very correctly) figure if they give me a job I'll be off doing something else as soon as I can. People who used to depend on me are doing it super tough and are scared, unable to comprehend that I'm not able to come back. My pets died horrible deaths because I was unable to organise care for them (believe me, I did everything I possibly could, I had someone doing their best to care for them and they had to watch them die and give me updates, it was horrible for everyone involved). I'm lonely in the extreme. My life is a living nightmare.

It's really lovely to know that people like you are in a position to get through this comfortably. I'm honestly very happy for you, but many people are not in a position to cope so well. My life has gone from absolutely wonderful to a complete and utter nightmare no good person should have to endure. My situation is definitely a lot worse than average, but plenty of people are doing it very tough, some worse than me, and plenty of people through no fault of their own are having a terrible time. Just because you are in a position to cope easily (in your shoes I'd be completely comfortable too) doesn't mean you can realistically expect everyone to. I bet I am coping with my situation better than you would.

Sorry to hear of your struggles, hopefully you will pull through.

I have no issues with anyone that needs to go out going out to get stuff (even board games) or looking for work etc.

what I am talking about is people blatantly exploiting loop holes for their own entertainment, the person I was talking about I know well and speak to at least 3 or 4 times a week, no money issues etc they just are bored and want to go out and socialize.

by the way, their “exercise” today meant they were out for over 5 hours, visited two different peoples houses, and went to the shops just for coffee with a third person.

They just can’t help themselves for some reason, they don’t seem to be able to deal with spending anytime at home, I said “dude read a book” and the response was “yeah, I have some books to read, but I am saving them for winter” , I couldn’t help but laugh.

 

[qldfrog]

It's easy for you, and in your circumstances it would be easy for me too. At the other end of the extreme you have someone in my situation. I lost my business, it happened at a really bad time, I have been financially wiped out completely. I was getting set up overseas where my stuff (which I've lost, I arrived in Australia with nothing but hand baggage, didn't even bring my laptop because I was only planning a brief trip), so I've been separated from my stuff (everything from cookware to clothes to books to... everything other than my toothbrush, one book and a few changes of casual summer clothes), my friends, familiar places, my whole way of life, where I live. You have a nice wife to live with, I have just gone from having plenty of girls interested in me and no shortage of dating opportunities to being unable to socialise in a place where I have no intention of staying. I don't own any board games etc. I don't own a bed, I don't have the option of properly storing food in a freezer, etc. I'm experiencing the coldest weather I've been in for quite a few years, and am stuck living with an extremely toxic person, with no option of just going out to get some space. Yes, I can go out for a walk to exercise, I can shop for food with what little money I have, and often spend many hours doing such things, but I literally can't even legally sit down in a park. I never imagined I'd have to consider going on the dole, but I was forced to apply a few weeks ago. They somehow knew that until a few years ago I had a lot of money and a healthy stock portfolio so they rejected my claim. I explained I had spent a few years setting up a business in Asia, and had everything invested in that and because of the situation had lost everything, and they're reviewing it. No one will give me a job, even stocking shelves for minimum wage because they see someone with university qualifications and business history and they (very correctly) figure if they give me a job I'll be off doing something else as soon as I can. People who used to depend on me are doing it super tough and are scared, unable to comprehend that I'm not able to come back. My pets died horrible deaths because I was unable to organise care for them (believe me, I did everything I possibly could, I had someone doing their best to care for them and they had to watch them die and give me updates, it was horrible for everyone involved). I'm lonely in the extreme. My life is a living nightmare.

It's really lovely to know that people like you are in a position to get through this comfortably. I'm honestly very happy for you, but many people are not in a position to cope so well. My life has gone from absolutely wonderful to a complete and utter nightmare no good person should have to endure. My situation is definitely a lot worse than average, but plenty of people are doing it very tough, some worse than me, and plenty of people through no fault of their own are having a terrible time. Just because you are in a position to cope easily (in your shoes I'd be completely comfortable too) doesn't mean you can realistically expect everyone to. I bet I am coping with my situation better than you would.

Which country where you in, and what are you doing in Australia? Do you have family here?
Imho, now is the time to go back with family if this is an option

 

[Value Collector]

Well Joe I dont know where you are, but Fri morning I went for a walk on the Mandurah (WA) foreshore and stopped to chat with a group of about 6 oldies.
Huge spacing about 2 metres between each, well within 5 minutes a Ranger comes up and tells everyone to move on, that was at 6.30 in the morning, no wonder we are reducing the infection rate.

The virus can travel 8 meters, so if you stand there long enough 2 meters might not be enough, especially if you are a funny bunch making each other laugh towards each other, apparently laugh and singing can be nearly as bad as coughing.

 

[Sdajii]

Sorry to hear of your struggles, hopefully you will pull through.

I have no issues with anyone that needs to go out going out to get stuff (even board games) or looking for work etc.

what I am talking about is people blatantly exploiting loop holes for their own entertainment, the person I was talking about I know well and speak to at least 3 or 4 times a week, no money issues etc they just are bored and want to go out and socialize.

by the way, their “exercise” today meant they were out for over 5 hours, visited two different peoples houses, and went to the shops just for coffee with a third person.

They just can’t help themselves for some reason, they don’t seem to be able to deal with spending anytime at home, I said “dude read a book” and the response was “yeah, I have some books to read, but I am saving them for winter” , I couldn’t help but laugh.

Yes, people like that are certainly exploiting the rules. I don't agree with the rules, but even in such a bad personal situation I'm following them. I can understand why many people are struggling in various ways though. Solitary isolation is one of the worst forms of human torture, and with many people in extremely bad situations, it's not surprising that some of them won't be following the rules. But yes, some people don't have an excuse and are being irresponsible, I agree.

 

[Smurf1976]

But if you check out the John Hopkins website the graphs showing the rate of new infections (reported !) for many countries is not good at all..

With reference to this site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I note that for closed cases the US has a recovery rate of 63% versus Australia's at 98.4%

That's a massive difference and the idea that contracting COVID-19 in the US gives you a 37% chance of death is concerning to say the least.

If that rate continues and the virus continues to spread then the US is heading toward an outright catastrophe it would seem. Even if the death rate halved they'd still be in deep trouble.

Meanwhile the S&P500 is at the same level it was at in August 2019. Whether you consider that to be reasonably valued at the time or not, it seems more reasonable then than it does right now.