Silver price discussion and analysis

[moXJO]

Lol, but geez I hope that's not true. I'm quite sure you wouldn't make a decison based on that.

FYI, I hold a claim on quite a bit of physical silver with a dealer, and while I've given some away, the only stuff I've sold was silver I had at home when I was shifting house to a new state. The big disadvantage of silver of course being its cumbersome weight and size for storage or transportation.

My unqualified opinion is to hold onto silver for those who've already bought. I'm a jaded +20 year silver bug, maybe I should stop sh*tg on it for fun.

Lol Nah just stirring.
I've done my time. 20 years of living with silver bricks stacked everywhere waiting for the end of the financial system.

I feel like something is going to flip. Can't put my finger on it yet. But right now the US$ and AUD$ is round about where i want it. If our dollar keeps marching up I'm worried it ends up getting silver stuck.


Ill just buy a gun and rob all the gold bugs when society breaks down

 

[qldfrog]

Lol Nah just stirring.
I've done my time. 20 years of living with silver bricks stacked everywhere waiting for the end of the financial system.

I feel like something is going to flip. Can't put my finger on it yet. But right now the US$ and AUD$ is round about where i want it. If our dollar keeps marching up I'm worried it ends up getting silver stuck.


Ill just buy a gun and rob all the gold bugs when society breaks down

got the gun, just need your address

 

[ducati916]

Back in the early days, when silver was still an afterthought in the financial press, I told you something few wanted to hear: The white metal was about to steal the show.

And look where we are now…

Six straight weeks of blistering outperformance. Silver hasn’t just kept pace with gold — it’s humiliated it in 2025…



The headlines are finally starting to catch up, but you and I were already here, positioned for the surge before the herd even noticed the starting gun.

Silver: The Underdog That Bites Back​

Mainstream analysts love to sneer at silver. Too volatile, too speculative, too dependent on industrial demand, they say. The respectable money goes into gold.

But history doesn’t back up their condescension…

Every single major gold bull market has eventually seen silver not only keep up, but sprint past. It happened in the 1930s, the 1970s, and the early 2000s.

Gold may light the fire, but silver pours on the gasoline.

That means this isn’t a one-off move. This is the beginning of a cycle where silver takes the wheel — and it’s already happening.

The Rally Nobody Believes In​

Look around you for a minute… Are your neighbors hoarding silver coins?

Is CNBC running wall-to-wall coverage of silver miners? Are your friends texting you about the next hot silver stock? Not even close.

That’s what makes this rally so powerful. Nobody believes it yet.

Which means the real upside hasn’t even begun. When the herd finally wakes up, they’ll come running. And prices will go vertical.

Let’s rewind the tape to the last great silver mania to give you an example of how parabolic things can go…


In 1976, silver was trading for barely $4 an ounce. The global economy was reeling from inflation, oil shocks, and political instability — sound familiar?

Gold began to climb, and silver followed. But then, silver did what silver always does: It went into overdrive.

By January 1980, silver hit nearly $50 an ounce — a more than 1,000% increase in just four years.

That was the era when the Hunt brothers famously tried to corner the silver market.

But here’s the part most people forget: Even without their antics, the setup was ripe for a silver explosion…

Investors had finally realized silver wasn’t just jewelry and coins. It was money. Real money that couldn’t be printed away.

And in that frenzy, tiny miners became absolute investment legends…

One of them, Lion Mines, delivered a return so insane it still boggles the mind: 54,000% between 1976 and 1980.

A few hundred dollars staked in Lion Mines turned into generational wealth.

Now, am I saying we’re about to see another Lion Mines? I’ll leave the crystal ball to fortune tellers.

And I’ll just say that history teaches us that in silver bull markets, the unimaginable quickly becomes reality.

And here’s the kicker: Just like today, in 1976 most people thought the rally had already gone too far. They thought it was too late.

In fact, here’s a chart noting 13 dates in 1976 alone where mainstream financial outlets called the rally in gold and silver “dead”…



They couldn’t see that the mania was only beginning.

Debt, Chaos, and Solar Panels​

Fast-forward to today, and the setup is even more explosive…

Governments are drowning in debt. Central banks are panic-buying gold as if tomorrow’s fiat system might collapse (because maybe it will). Geopolitics are on a knife’s edge.

Every headline screams instability.

And silver? It benefits from all of it.

It’s the monetary twin of gold, the safe haven investors reach for when the world looks shaky.

But it’s also the industrial backbone of modern technology. Solar panels, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and medical equipment all devour silver.

That dual role makes silver unique. It’s both protection against chaos and fuel for the future. There is no modern economy without silver — and demand is only rising.

That’s why this rally isn’t just another blip. I’m convinced it’s a supercycle with staying power.

Stocks: Where Silver Becomes a Money Machine​

Sure, stacking silver bars and coins is smart. It’s your insurance policy.

But if you want to multiply your wealth, you need to look at the companies pulling silver out of the ground — or financing the ones that do.

A $2 move in silver is nice for bullion holders. But for miners, that same $2 can expand profit margins by 20%, 30%, even 50%.

Markets reward that kind of leverage with stock prices that move two, three, even five times faster than the metal itself.

That’s how fortunes are built. Not just by owning ounces, but by owning the companies that mint money when silver runs.

The Rebel’s Three Silver Plays​

Let me spell out three names that every serious investor should dig into right now.

Avino Silver and Gold Mines — The Scrappy Fighter…

Avino operates in Mexico, with decades of history and efficient operations. It’s not flashy, but that’s exactly why I like it. Avino doesn’t need massive new spending to scale.

Its existing mines are built to deliver. When silver rises, Avino’s profits surge disproportionately — and so does its stock price.

Wheaton Precious Metals — The Banker of the Boom…

Wheaton isn’t a traditional miner. It’s a streaming and royalty company, which means it finances other miners in exchange for the right to buy their silver (and gold) at locked-in, rock-bottom prices.

That model is beautiful in a bull market. Wheaton soaks up the upside without dealing with mining headaches.

It’s one of the smartest, most resilient ways to get leveraged exposure to silver.

Apollo Silver — The Wild Card…

Apollo doesn’t yet have the production of Avino or the established revenues of Wheaton. But it has something equally valuable: potential.

Its Calico project in California is one of the largest undeveloped silver resources in the U.S. Right now it’s speculative. But if silver surges like I believe it will, Apollo’s project could transform into one of the most valuable assets in the country.

For aggressive investors, this is the asymmetric bet that could deliver the kind of eye-popping returns we’ve seen in past silver manias.

Put these three together and you’ve got the contrarian’s trifecta: stability, leverage, and speculation.

Don’t Let Fear Kill Your Fortune​

The easy thing to do right now is to say, “I missed it.” To believe the headlines that silver’s already run too far. To listen to the mainstream voices who always, always say it’s too late.

That’s exactly what people said in 1976. And four years later, they were kicking themselves while the bold contrarians were measuring their profits in multiples, not percentages.



The hard thing — the contrarian thing — is to see this rally for what it is: still young, still powerful, and still loaded with upside.

The Bottom Line: Get in or Get Left Behind​

Silver is in open rebellion. It’s outshining gold, mocking the experts, and proving once again that contrarians were right.

We called it early, and now we’re watching the cycle unfold exactly as history says it would.

But don’t kid yourself — the biggest moves are still ahead. Investor participation is tiny.

Central banks are still buying. Industrial demand is soaring. And history shows silver can move further and faster than anyone dares to imagine.

Between proven operators like Avino, smart financiers like Wheaton, and speculative wild cards like Apollo, the opportunity is laid out right in front of you.

The only question is: Will you seize it now, or will you let the herd beat you to it?

Because this silver rebellion is just beginning. And those who hesitate will be left watching from the sidelines as the bold rake in the gains.

Now’s the time to get invested — and to dig even deeper…



jog on
duc

 

[finicky]

Market Matters view:

Silver

"Silver has trodden a similar but less discussed path to gold through 2025: year-to-date silver has advanced +62% trumping golds +47%. Both precious metals have advanced strongly over the last 3 years, with the silver market experiencing unprecedented pressure from both sides of the supply and surging demand. What we’re seeing isn’t just a temporary market situation but rather a structural deficit that has been building for years.

Supply Constraints: by-product dependency from the likes of copper and gold mining, declining ore grades, and rising production costs, e.g. energy and labour.
Demand Tailwind: increasing industrial applications, including solar panels and global electrification, and like gold investment demand from coins, bars and ETFs.
Silver is currently trading in backwardation, with Dec27 silver almost 10% more expensive than Dec26,* way more than an interest rate differential. Such steep backwardations are largely regarded as bullish flags for traders and investors.

We are bullish towards silver into 2026, and while a pullback wouldn’t surprise we can see higher prices this time next year.

ETPMAG
MM is bullish towards silver medium term"

*Edit: that's not backwardation is it? Isn't it the other way round?

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[finicky]

A.I

"In commodities, backwardation occurs when the spot price (the price for immediate delivery) is higher than the futures price for delivery at a later date. This downward-sloping futures price curve indicates current high demand or a short-term supply shortage, leading traders to expect prices to fall over time. Buyers may pay a premium for immediate access to the commodity, while producers are incentivized to sell now rather than store the product for future, lower prices.

Key Characteristics of Backwardation

Spot Price vs. Futures Price: The immediate market price is more expensive than prices for future delivery.
Downward-Sloping Curve: The futures price curve slopes downward, with prices for later-dated contracts being lower than earlier-dated contracts.
Market Tightness: It signals a tight market with high current demand or supply constraints.
Expectation of Falling Prices: Traders anticipate that the scarcity or high demand will ease over time, causing prices to decrease.

Causes of Backwardation

Supply Shortages: Disruptions like natural disasters, geopolitical events, or production delays can create a shortage, driving up the spot price.
High Current Demand: Strong immediate demand, often seen during peak seasonal consumption periods (like for agricultural commodities before harvest), can cause backwardation.
Seasonal Cycles: Some commodities experience backwardation when demand is highest at a specific time of year."

Question asked: Is the silver futures market currently in backwardation?

A.I
"Yes, the silver futures market is showing signs of backwardation as of late 2025, with near-term contracts being priced higher than long-term contracts due to a persistent supply deficit and escalating industrial and investment demand. This backwardation suggests a potential physical silver shortage, as demand is outstripping available supply, leading to increased price volatility and premiums on physical silver.

What is Backwardation?
Definition: Backwardation occurs when the price of a futures contract for a specific commodity, like silver, is lower than the spot price (the immediate price for physical delivery."

 

[ducati916]

Bruce Ikemuzo, Chief Director of the Japan Bullion Market Association (JBMA) has put out a note dated October 2 stating that the London implied lease rate for silver has increased to 7.3% for the 1-month lease tenor. A rising London implied lease rate signals an intensifying shortage of silver there.

In mid August 2025 when silver was $38 /oz., the 1-month silver lease rate was 2.2%. Silver is now $48 /oz. and both the silver lease rate and silver’s price continue to climb.

Note also the high lease rate structure for Platinum that signals continued platinum bar shortage.

​

Figure 1 - Platinum And Other Precious Metal Lease Rates At August 12, 2025; source: Bruce Ikemizu @BruceIkeGold on Twitter

CME / NY COMEX Silver Price Enters Backwardation​

Second, the pricing structure on the NY / CME COMEX metal exchange has entered ‘backwardation’ with the spot / cash price for silver exceeding futures prices. The CME COMEX price joins the London market where silver’s pricing structure has been in backwardation in recent weeks.

When sufficient physical metal is available to market, the cash or spot price for immediate metal delivery is typically lower than futures prices reflecting the cost of storage, insurance, the cost of capital, etc. to purchase the right to secure delivery of metal at a future date.

When the spot price surges above futures prices it indicates an urgency in the market to source metal for immediate delivery and signals metal shortage.

Intensifying silver metal lease rates and backwardation in the price structure both signal positive upward pressure on silver’s price.

A Question for SLV/BlackRock​

BlackRock, Inc. operates the iShares® Silver Trust Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that vaults silver for investor shareholders whereby investors can purchase shares listed under the symbol ‘SLV’ on the New York Stock Exchange that track the price of silver by vaulting such silver.

The SLV prospectus states that the Bank of New York Mellon is the trustee of the Silver Trust and JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., London branch is the custodian that vaults silver for the Trust.

Readers of this post showing the graph in Figure 2 below may have noticed the very short lived spike in SLV’s holdings of silver of approximately 3,250 tonnes or 104 million (M) oz. in early 2021 during the initial ‘silver squeeze’. This was also at the time of the debacle of Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie appearing on CNBC stating that the silver ETFs sold claims on their client silver, held in trust by ETFs, into the market (red ‘X’ in Figure 2 below) increasing the apparent supply of silver and thus ETF demand for silver could never impact the silver price.

On February 3, 2021, iShares’ SLV prospectus was revised to state: “The demand for silver may temporarily exceed available supply that is acceptable for delivery to the Trust, which may adversely affect an investment in the Shares… …Authorized Participants may be unable to acquire sufficient silver that is acceptable for delivery to the Trust… due to a limited then-available supply coupled with a surge in demand for the Shares.”

In May 2021, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) issued a statement notifying the silver market that the LBMA had mistakenly overstated London vault holdings of silver in March 2021 by 106M oz.
Some reader may also have noticed that 106 M oz. is of silver is very close to the ~104M oz. silver that SLV holdings spiked for a very short time in 2021.
The Question for BlackRock and its CEO Larry Fink is as follows: was the LBMA’s 100M oz. overstatement of London vault holdings of silver related in anyway to the roughly 100M oz. temporary spike in SLV’s stated London vault silver holdings?
Did BlackRock issue shares in SLV without purchasing vaulted silver to back such shares in 2021?

​

Figure 2 - iShares SLV Silver Trust Holdings (Black Line) And Silver Price (Blue Line), Jeff Currie CNBC Appearance Denoted By Red ‘X’; source: GoldChartsRUs.com





jog on
duc

 

[Miner]

Back in the early days, when silver was still an afterthought in the financial press, I told you something few wanted to hear: The white metal was about to steal the show.

And look where we are now…

Six straight weeks of blistering outperformance. Silver hasn’t just kept pace with gold — it’s humiliated it in 2025…

View attachment 210222

The headlines are finally starting to catch up, but you and I were already here, positioned for the surge before the herd even noticed the starting gun.

Silver: The Underdog That Bites Back​

Mainstream analysts love to sneer at silver. Too volatile, too speculative, too dependent on industrial demand, they say. The respectable money goes into gold.

But history doesn’t back up their condescension…

Every single major gold bull market has eventually seen silver not only keep up, but sprint past. It happened in the 1930s, the 1970s, and the early 2000s.

Gold may light the fire, but silver pours on the gasoline.

That means this isn’t a one-off move. This is the beginning of a cycle where silver takes the wheel — and it’s already happening.

The Rally Nobody Believes In​

Look around you for a minute… Are your neighbors hoarding silver coins?

Is CNBC running wall-to-wall coverage of silver miners? Are your friends texting you about the next hot silver stock? Not even close.

That’s what makes this rally so powerful. Nobody believes it yet.

Which means the real upside hasn’t even begun. When the herd finally wakes up, they’ll come running. And prices will go vertical.

Let’s rewind the tape to the last great silver mania to give you an example of how parabolic things can go…


In 1976, silver was trading for barely $4 an ounce. The global economy was reeling from inflation, oil shocks, and political instability — sound familiar?

Gold began to climb, and silver followed. But then, silver did what silver always does: It went into overdrive.

By January 1980, silver hit nearly $50 an ounce — a more than 1,000% increase in just four years.

That was the era when the Hunt brothers famously tried to corner the silver market.

But here’s the part most people forget: Even without their antics, the setup was ripe for a silver explosion…

Investors had finally realized silver wasn’t just jewelry and coins. It was money. Real money that couldn’t be printed away.

And in that frenzy, tiny miners became absolute investment legends…

One of them, Lion Mines, delivered a return so insane it still boggles the mind: 54,000% between 1976 and 1980.

A few hundred dollars staked in Lion Mines turned into generational wealth.

Now, am I saying we’re about to see another Lion Mines? I’ll leave the crystal ball to fortune tellers.

And I’ll just say that history teaches us that in silver bull markets, the unimaginable quickly becomes reality.

And here’s the kicker: Just like today, in 1976 most people thought the rally had already gone too far. They thought it was too late.

In fact, here’s a chart noting 13 dates in 1976 alone where mainstream financial outlets called the rally in gold and silver “dead”…

View attachment 210223

They couldn’t see that the mania was only beginning.

Debt, Chaos, and Solar Panels​

Fast-forward to today, and the setup is even more explosive…

Governments are drowning in debt. Central banks are panic-buying gold as if tomorrow’s fiat system might collapse (because maybe it will). Geopolitics are on a knife’s edge.

Every headline screams instability.

And silver? It benefits from all of it.

It’s the monetary twin of gold, the safe haven investors reach for when the world looks shaky.

But it’s also the industrial backbone of modern technology. Solar panels, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and medical equipment all devour silver.

That dual role makes silver unique. It’s both protection against chaos and fuel for the future. There is no modern economy without silver — and demand is only rising.

That’s why this rally isn’t just another blip. I’m convinced it’s a supercycle with staying power.

Stocks: Where Silver Becomes a Money Machine​

Sure, stacking silver bars and coins is smart. It’s your insurance policy.

But if you want to multiply your wealth, you need to look at the companies pulling silver out of the ground — or financing the ones that do.

A $2 move in silver is nice for bullion holders. But for miners, that same $2 can expand profit margins by 20%, 30%, even 50%.

Markets reward that kind of leverage with stock prices that move two, three, even five times faster than the metal itself.

That’s how fortunes are built. Not just by owning ounces, but by owning the companies that mint money when silver runs.

The Rebel’s Three Silver Plays​

Let me spell out three names that every serious investor should dig into right now.

Avino Silver and Gold Mines — The Scrappy Fighter…

Avino operates in Mexico, with decades of history and efficient operations. It’s not flashy, but that’s exactly why I like it. Avino doesn’t need massive new spending to scale.

Its existing mines are built to deliver. When silver rises, Avino’s profits surge disproportionately — and so does its stock price.

Wheaton Precious Metals — The Banker of the Boom…

Wheaton isn’t a traditional miner. It’s a streaming and royalty company, which means it finances other miners in exchange for the right to buy their silver (and gold) at locked-in, rock-bottom prices.

That model is beautiful in a bull market. Wheaton soaks up the upside without dealing with mining headaches.

It’s one of the smartest, most resilient ways to get leveraged exposure to silver.

Apollo Silver — The Wild Card…

Apollo doesn’t yet have the production of Avino or the established revenues of Wheaton. But it has something equally valuable: potential.

Its Calico project in California is one of the largest undeveloped silver resources in the U.S. Right now it’s speculative. But if silver surges like I believe it will, Apollo’s project could transform into one of the most valuable assets in the country.

For aggressive investors, this is the asymmetric bet that could deliver the kind of eye-popping returns we’ve seen in past silver manias.

Put these three together and you’ve got the contrarian’s trifecta: stability, leverage, and speculation.

Don’t Let Fear Kill Your Fortune​

The easy thing to do right now is to say, “I missed it.” To believe the headlines that silver’s already run too far. To listen to the mainstream voices who always, always say it’s too late.

That’s exactly what people said in 1976. And four years later, they were kicking themselves while the bold contrarians were measuring their profits in multiples, not percentages.

View attachment 210224

The hard thing — the contrarian thing — is to see this rally for what it is: still young, still powerful, and still loaded with upside.

The Bottom Line: Get in or Get Left Behind​

Silver is in open rebellion. It’s outshining gold, mocking the experts, and proving once again that contrarians were right.

We called it early, and now we’re watching the cycle unfold exactly as history says it would.

But don’t kid yourself — the biggest moves are still ahead. Investor participation is tiny.

Central banks are still buying. Industrial demand is soaring. And history shows silver can move further and faster than anyone dares to imagine.

Between proven operators like Avino, smart financiers like Wheaton, and speculative wild cards like Apollo, the opportunity is laid out right in front of you.

The only question is: Will you seize it now, or will you let the herd beat you to it?

Because this silver rebellion is just beginning. And those who hesitate will be left watching from the sidelines as the bold rake in the gains.

Now’s the time to get invested — and to dig even deeper…



jog on
duc

Thanks. Next Investors is taking this hype to market many silver stocks.
@ducati916 please do me a personal favour to read and maintain doc's advise to cut my screen time.
Please get a summary under 75 words . AI will do.