Sean K
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Correction/Edit : A fall of gold through $2800 would take some bets off the table.You may be a bit premature @Sean K . If you put that support/resistance line at 33 there is a nice cup and handle there, though I've never traded that setup tbh.
Hoffman's article on Ghali also seems to me to be unwise. Silver and gold now trade totally separately imo. Silver has had a rough time of it recently. Gold is wobbling atm. A fall through $2880 would take some bets off the table.
Although I usually enjoy "interesting times" , living through these ones is a bit taxing.
gg
Technical analysis a.k.a. squiggly line vodoo. You may as well read tea leaves. never been a fan of technical analysis.This technical analysis, support and resistance crap, is crap.
This week, starting March 2, 2025, several major economic data releases are scheduled that could provide insights into global and regional economic conditions. Based on available information and projections for early March 2025, here’s what’s expected:
- Monday, March 3: Global Manufacturing PMI data for February will be released, including figures for the US (e.g., ISM Manufacturing PMI), Japan, the UK, the eurozone, and other regions. These surveys offer an early look at manufacturing activity and economic health, with recent trends suggesting mixed performance—growth in some areas like Japan, but near-stagnation in the US and eurozone.
- Wednesday, March 5: Global Services and Composite PMI data for February are due, covering the US (e.g., ISM Services PMI), Canada, Australia, and other economies. These reports will shed light on the service sector’s performance, a critical driver of economic activity. Flash PMI data have hinted at subdued conditions in some regions, so these updates will be closely watched.
- Thursday, March 6: The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision. A 25-basis-point rate cut is widely anticipated, following signals of a softening eurozone economy and inflation hovering near the ECB’s 2% target. The accompanying press conference could influence market expectations further.
- Friday, March 7: The US jobs report for February will be the week’s highlight, featuring Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and wage growth figures. This follows a January report showing 143,000 new jobs, a drop in unemployment to 4.0%, and wage growth at 4.1%. Markets will look for signs of labor market strength or weakness, which could sway the Federal Reserve’s rate cut plans.
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I think silver is going lower in the short term. These are just simple support lines but silver has a history of respecting support and resistance, at least as long as I've been following it.
I expect US$30.70 will be tested this week, and if it goes lower there is significant psychological support at US$30. I think if the economic data is bearish this week we will almost certainly see silver testing that level again.
Lots of data coming too:
Figure 1- March 5, 2025 CME COMEX Trading Data; source: CME COMEXIn addition, yesterday’s CME COMEX data indicate that on March 5, 2025 another 1,046 Exchange For Physical (EFP) contracts traded equating to another 5 million (M) oz. of silver that can be drawn from the London silver market vaults.
When you create an immediate ownership cash physical metal exchange and sell billions of ounces of silver into that market with only a small fraction of that silver available to market to immediately settle such claims, you are asking for trouble - and London now appears to have that in spades.We await LBMA London silver vault data to indicate vault silver stocks held in London at the end of February 2025, however the rolling and aggressive daily transfer of silver to visible US vaults as well as the spike in London silver’s implied lease rate sends us an ominous signal as to the health of the leveraged London cash/spot silver market.
With January 1, 2025 estimated standing claims (open interest) of 5 billion (B) oz. of silver in the extremely leveraged London cash/spot silver market and a continuing daily appetite for US importation of silver, the situation does not auger well for the world’s most intensely leveraged cash silver market.
Figure 1 - London Vault Holdings Of Silver And Gold; source: LBMAThe 128.5M oz. withdrawal of silver over these 3 months represents a removal of approximately 42% of London silver vault holdings not owned by ETFs during this period.
It is thus not surprising that the implied 2-month lease rate for silver jumped to 5.5% two days ago on March 5, 2025 with the actual London silver lease rate potentially being much higher.
Given the estimated 5 billion (B) oz. of silver spot/cash contracts standing in the London silver market at the beginning of January 2025, this London silver shortage can see a market price excursion develop very quickly if sufficient metal cannot be imported quickly as silver withdrawals continue.Market signals of silver price backwardation and very high lease rates for silver are indicating that there is very little physical silver currently held in London vaults that is available to market and the onset of a physical silver squeeze in London.
The wind is fairly normal after beans and cabbage etcI blame the wind on poor navigation.
My sense of humour is an acquired taste.
Nah, the easy money is to be made when the retail public start piling in.Gold and silver running away. There's been a few significant breakouts the past few years. It's been nice to watch and participate early. Hard not to get FOMO and go all-in even though the easy money has probably been made.
Nah, the easy money is to be made when the retail public start piling in.
We have not reached that point yet.
We have not really reached it in gold yet.
Mick
In its report, Bloomberg published an implied lease rate graph for London silver showing an implied London lease rate above 6%. Bloomberg’s reported lease rate may be a blended weekly average lease rate, however precious metals market analyst Robert Gottlieb reported that the implied lease rate in London hit 9% in London this prior week. We have to keep in mind that the actual London gold lease rate has hit double the calculated implied lease rate recently. Figure 1 - London Silver Implied Lease Rate; source: Bloomberg How Bad Is The London Silver Shortage?In a word, it’s bad.
The most recent London silver vault holding data show that at February 28, 2025, there were approximately 198 million (M) oz. or 6,164 tonnes of silver ‘float’ in London vaults that were not held by Exchange Traded Funds for their shareholders. Figure 2 - London Silver Vault Holdings At February 28, 2025; source: GoldChartsRUs.com, LBMA In fact, each day over the past weeks there have typically been an additional 3M to 5M oz. of Exchange For Physical (EFP) silver contracts acquired in the New York CME COMEX market that allows purchasers to claim physical silver for immediate delivery in London tightening the squeeze in the London market even further as it is shipped away. Foaming The Runway For Arrival Of The Silver SqueezeIn the face of this evidence of an extant and growing physical silver squeeze in London, Bloomberg’s March 18, 2025 silver article posited the following: A high silver lease rate in London for two to three months indicates a serious market shortage has developed and not a short market speed bump.Further, speculating that the silver could come right back to London given the reasons that the silver was moved to New York from London in the first place is more of the order of wishful thinking. If the silver reinforcements could have arrived from Swiss vaults they would have by now and we are not seeing that in London market data - in fact, the situation is getting worse. London Silver Leverage BitesThe Loco London Liquidity Survey of 2011, published in the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA’s) trade magazine Alchemist #63, showed that total daily gold trading turnover was a minimum 10x the published end-of-day net-settled trading volume. Applying the LBMA’s market research data to the silver market to scale trading, the average daily silver trading volume in London equates to 2.4 billion (B) oz. of silver daily turnover and standing claims of 5B oz. of silver for immediate London delivery. In a world that sees mine production of silver at 830M oz. per annum and an increasingly illiquid global physical silver market, this is heading for a spectacular resolution as the market disposes of a decades-old price rigging system operated under the oversight of the Bank of England. |
| Big market moves feel impossible until they happen. Then, suddenly, they look inevitable. Silver has been lagging gold for what feels like forever. That’s how these things always go—until they don’t. Now, silver is squeezing higher, breaking through multi-month highs, and looking ready to challenge multi-decade highs. None of this is happening in isolation. This precious metals bull market just turned one year old. Gold futures are trading above $3,000 for the first time ever. And all of it is fueling something markets haven’t seen in years: animal spirits in the mining industry. The evidence is clear: |
| The ASC Gold Rush Index tracks the biggest names in the space — Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM), Newmont ($NEM), Barrick Gold ($GOLD), and more. Think of it as a better version of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX). It’s been quietly forming a textbook accumulation pattern since 2011. Now? The breakout is here. Gold has already run. Silver is catching up. And the miners? They still have room to run. It’s Time for Miners to Play Catch-Up Historically, miners tend to lead to the downside and explode to the upside. Their moves are dramatic. They were great shorts during the last drawdown — now, they might be even better longs in this next leg higher. We’ve already nailed big trades in miners this cycle — like Orla Mining ($ORLA). But this is still early. |
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