Silver price discussion and analysis

[Sean K]

"It's a Poor Tradesman who Blames his Tools"

"Do you ever Blame the Darts ?"
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I blame the wind on poor navigation.

My sense of humour is an acquired taste.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

You may be a bit premature @Sean K . If you put that support/resistance line at 33 there is a nice cup and handle there, though I've never traded that setup tbh.

Hoffman's article on Ghali also seems to me to be unwise. Silver and gold now trade totally separately imo. Silver has had a rough time of it recently. Gold is wobbling atm. A fall through $2880 would take some bets off the table.

Although I usually enjoy "interesting times" , living through these ones is a bit taxing.

gg

Correction/Edit : A fall of gold through $2800 would take some bets off the table.

gg

 

[Value Hunter]

This technical analysis, support and resistance crap, is crap.

Technical analysis a.k.a. squiggly line vodoo. You may as well read tea leaves. never been a fan of technical analysis.

 

[greggles]

I think silver is going lower in the short term. These are just simple support lines but silver has a history of respecting support and resistance, at least as long as I've been following it.

I expect US$30.70 will be tested this week, and if it goes lower there is significant psychological support at US$30. I think if the economic data is bearish this week we will almost certainly see silver testing that level again.

Lots of data coming too:

This week, starting March 2, 2025, several major economic data releases are scheduled that could provide insights into global and regional economic conditions. Based on available information and projections for early March 2025, here’s what’s expected:

• Monday, March 3: Global Manufacturing PMI data for February will be released, including figures for the US (e.g., ISM Manufacturing PMI), Japan, the UK, the eurozone, and other regions. These surveys offer an early look at manufacturing activity and economic health, with recent trends suggesting mixed performance—growth in some areas like Japan, but near-stagnation in the US and eurozone.
• Wednesday, March 5: Global Services and Composite PMI data for February are due, covering the US (e.g., ISM Services PMI), Canada, Australia, and other economies. These reports will shed light on the service sector’s performance, a critical driver of economic activity. Flash PMI data have hinted at subdued conditions in some regions, so these updates will be closely watched.
• Thursday, March 6: The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision. A 25-basis-point rate cut is widely anticipated, following signals of a softening eurozone economy and inflation hovering near the ECB’s 2% target. The accompanying press conference could influence market expectations further.
• Friday, March 7: The US jobs report for February will be the week’s highlight, featuring Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and wage growth figures. This follows a January report showing 143,000 new jobs, a drop in unemployment to 4.0%, and wage growth at 4.1%. Markets will look for signs of labor market strength or weakness, which could sway the Federal Reserve’s rate cut plans.

 

[Sdajii]

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I think silver is going lower in the short term. These are just simple support lines but silver has a history of respecting support and resistance, at least as long as I've been following it.

I expect US$30.70 will be tested this week, and if it goes lower there is significant psychological support at US$30. I think if the economic data is bearish this week we will almost certainly see silver testing that level again.

Lots of data coming too:

To me the silver chart looks extremely messy with no particularly clear support levels, just a lot of clutter. I can see countless support levels which could be considered valid by various metrics, but none stand out.

Silver usually follows gold... except when it doesn't. Depending on what happens this week we could see gold bounce or retrace further. I agree that silver is probably going lower this week. Doesn't bother me, I've had an itchy trigger finger for buying back into silver but have been sitting on the sidelines for a few months now so it can correct as much as it likes as far as I'm concerned.

Gold will likely test $2,790 this week. It'll be a big week for precious metals.

 

[ducati916]

This was posted in LinkedIn a few hours ago today by Robert Gottleib.

It tells the story of an Implied Lease Rate for silver in London that surged to 5.5% today.

​

As we’ve seen with gold recently, the actual London Lease Rate can be materially higher, almost double, the Implied Lease Rate.

Will try to source actual London silver lease data for comparison.

Over the past 3 days, there have been between 1.0 million (M) oz. and 2.5M oz. per day of silver Exchange For Physical (EFP) contracts transacted on the New York CME COMEX exchange allowing for physical delivery of silver bars switched from the COMEX to the London silver market. Added physical delivery demand pressure.

While there are 770M oz. of silver in London vaults the lease rates indicate that very little of the London silver vault holdings are currently available to market.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Sprott



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Following-up on yesterday’s post noting that the London silver market implied lease rate yesterday surged to 5.5%, keep in mind that we’ve recently seen that the actual London lease rate for gold was almost 2x higher than London gold’s implied lease rate.

The potential is that there is an extraordinarily intense physical squeeze developing in the London silver market.

In addition, yesterday’s CME COMEX data indicate that on March 5, 2025 another 1,046 Exchange For Physical (EFP) contracts traded equating to another 5 million (M) oz. of silver that can be drawn from the London silver market vaults.

​

Figure 1- March 5, 2025 CME COMEX Trading Data; source: CME COMEX

COMEX New York Vault data show that since the start of December 2024, a total of ~105M oz. of silver have been deposited in New York (NY) COMEX vaults with an unknown additional amount of silver being deposited in other private vaults. The daily build of silver in NY vaults has been unrelenting.

There is a 30 day to 45 day transit by ship from London to New York vaults so there is thus potentially still a material amount of silver in transit flowing to the US.

​

Figure 2 - CME COMEX silver vault stockpiles; source: GoldChartsRUs.com

We await LBMA London silver vault data to indicate vault silver stocks held in London at the end of February 2025, however the rolling and aggressive daily transfer of silver to visible US vaults as well as the spike in London silver’s implied lease rate sends us an ominous signal as to the health of the leveraged London cash/spot silver market.
With January 1, 2025 estimated standing claims (open interest) of 5 billion (B) oz. of silver in the extremely leveraged London cash/spot silver market and a continuing daily appetite for US importation of silver, the situation does not auger well for the world’s most intensely leveraged cash silver market.

When you create an immediate ownership cash physical metal exchange and sell billions of ounces of silver into that market with only a small fraction of that silver available to market to immediately settle such claims, you are asking for trouble - and London now appears to have that in spades.



The London Bullion Market Association released their latest London silver vault data today that show 128.5 million (M) oz. of silver were withdrawn from London silver vaults over 3 months through February 2025.

Of the 722M oz. of silver remaining at the end of February 2025, London vaults hold approximately 525M oz. owned by ETFs.

The 128.5M oz. withdrawal of silver over these 3 months represents a removal of approximately 42% of London silver vault holdings not owned by ETFs during this period.
It is thus not surprising that the implied 2-month lease rate for silver jumped to 5.5% two days ago on March 5, 2025 with the actual London silver lease rate potentially being much higher.

​

Figure 1 - London Vault Holdings Of Silver And Gold; source: LBMA

Market signals of silver price backwardation and very high lease rates for silver are indicating that there is very little physical silver currently held in London vaults that is available to market and the onset of a physical silver squeeze in London.

Given the estimated 5 billion (B) oz. of silver spot/cash contracts standing in the London silver market at the beginning of January 2025, this London silver shortage can see a market price excursion develop very quickly if sufficient metal cannot be imported quickly as silver withdrawals continue.

Note also in Figure 1 above that during this 3 month period, a net 7.75M oz. of (heavy) gold were withdrawn from London vaults.


jog on
duc

 

[greggles]

Interesting video on the relationship between silver and copper. Five months old but still relevant.

 

[ducati916]

Gold Rush: The Silver Short Squeeze Is Brewing A year ago, the precious metals bull market kicked off. If you were paying attention, you probably remember where you were when it started. Big moves have a way of sticking in memory. We certainly remember. And we’re raising a glass to many more years ahead. Now, the natural question: What’s next? Gold has had its moment. But history doesn’t just repeat — it rhymes. And right now, Gold’s unpredictable cousin, Silver, is making some noise. Here’s the deal: Short interest in Silver is at an all-time high. Higher than it’s ever been in the history of the iShares Silver Trust ($SLV). ​ That’s not just a stat — it’s a setup. Because when short interest reaches extremes, something interesting tends to happen. Historically, moments like this have led to sharp reversals and major price moves. Crowded trades unwind. And those betting against Silver might soon find themselves scrambling. We think Silver futures are primed to follow suit. Here’s our line in the sand: ​ If Silver futures hold above 30, the path of least resistance is toward 35. From there, it’s a quick shot to 49 and fresh all-time highs. We’ve been hammering this theme in our weekly videos — and tomorrow, we’re recording a special one you won’t want to miss.

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

Silver has been trying to clearly break 32 bucks for a year or so. Can it actually do it? Would be nice if 32 turned into a floor.

 

[frugal.rock]

I blame the wind on poor navigation.

My sense of humour is an acquired taste.

The wind is fairly normal after beans and cabbage etc
Perhaps keep a tablespoon in your pocket and a spare pair of grundies with you, just in case you know.

 

[ducati916]

Further to yesterday’s post regarding tight physical supply in the London silver market, Robert Gottleib has provided an update on the March 12, 2025 London implied lease rate for silver.

Robert shows an implied silver lease rate of 7.3% in London (vs. 9% yesterday) as well as an increasing Exchange For Physical (EFP) price spread indicating a tight physical silver market in London.

Recall that in January 2025, the lease rate for gold in London topped 10% while the implied lease rate stood at half that level.

Thus, the true lease rate for silver in London may approximate 14.5% today which speaks of a market very short of metal.

​

Figure 1 - Post By Robert Gottlieb Regarding Implied Silver Lease Rate On March 12, 2025; source: LinkedIn.com

Metal is flowing to / from the London market and we continue to follow market data dynamics as the silver and gold markets develop.


jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

There's a very good chance that $32 might now be a floor, although it's had two false breaks through over the past year. Maybe third time lucky.

Not too many ways to play it except for a couple of minnows on the ASX and ETPMAG which moves similarly to SLV.

 

[Sean K]

Gold and silver running away. There's been a few significant breakouts the past few years. It's been nice to watch and participate early. Hard not to get FOMO and go all-in even though the easy money has probably been made.

 

[finicky]

Been slow for a 'volatile' metal. I've got a few historical silver kooks and koalas that I bought almost two decades ago for the equivalent of the current AUD spot price.

 

[mullokintyre]

Gold and silver running away. There's been a few significant breakouts the past few years. It's been nice to watch and participate early. Hard not to get FOMO and go all-in even though the easy money has probably been made.

Nah, the easy money is to be made when the retail public start piling in.
We have not reached that point yet.
We have not really reached it in gold yet.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Nah, the easy money is to be made when the retail public start piling in.
We have not reached that point yet.
We have not really reached it in gold yet.
Mick

Agree if some of the stats are to be trusted and which I've invested in. A few PM bulls keep pulling out the numbers regarding outflows from PM ETFs and the proportion of investment in gold and gold related instruments to be extremely low historically. The last 40 year mean is supposed to be 2% but it's currently .25%. So, the proportion should go to 4X to revert back to mean. RR keeps ramping that. There's no sign that has changed in the general investor space. But, CBs might be making up for it.

 

[moXJO]

Hmm everytime I think that I might look in the silver thread, silver tanks in the days after. 20 damn years of holding it.
I'm holding it out of spite at this stage.

 

[ducati916]

	​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ As data clearly indicates that a physical silver squeeze is underway and growing in London, this week Bloomberg News started to report that perhaps a silver squeeze could develop. In its report, Bloomberg published an implied lease rate graph for London silver showing an implied London lease rate above 6%. Bloomberg’s reported lease rate may be a blended weekly average lease rate, however precious metals market analyst Robert Gottlieb reported that the implied lease rate in London hit 9% in London this prior week. We have to keep in mind that the actual London gold lease rate has hit double the calculated implied lease rate recently. There have been claims that there is ample silver in Swiss and other vaults available to resupply London vaults. However, it is a short truck trip from Switzerland to London through the Chunnel and that silver would have started to move by now in size to London’s silver-depleted vaults thus lowering lease rates. ​ Figure 1 - London Silver Implied Lease Rate; source: Bloomberg How Bad Is The London Silver Shortage?​ In a word, it’s bad. The most recent London silver vault holding data show that at February 28, 2025, there were approximately 198 million (M) oz. or 6,164 tonnes of silver ‘float’ in London vaults that were not held by Exchange Traded Funds for their shareholders.​ However, the ‘free float’ of silver actually available to market in London currently is much smaller than 198M oz. The London free float may be as little as a few 10s of millions of oz. of silver and the persistently high London silver lease rate tells us that the London silver vaults are drawn-down of the available silver and are not being replenished. ​ Figure 2 - London Silver Vault Holdings At February 28, 2025; source: GoldChartsRUs.com, LBMA In fact, each day over the past weeks there have typically been an additional 3M to 5M oz. of Exchange For Physical (EFP) silver contracts acquired in the New York CME COMEX market that allows purchasers to claim physical silver for immediate delivery in London tightening the squeeze in the London market even further as it is shipped away. Foaming The Runway For Arrival Of The Silver Squeeze​ In the face of this evidence of an extant and growing physical silver squeeze in London, Bloomberg’s March 18, 2025 silver article posited the following:​ ​ A high silver lease rate in London for two to three months indicates a serious market shortage has developed and not a short market speed bump. Further, speculating that the silver could come right back to London given the reasons that the silver was moved to New York from London in the first place is more of the order of wishful thinking. If the silver reinforcements could have arrived from Swiss vaults they would have by now and we are not seeing that in London market data - in fact, the situation is getting worse. London Silver Leverage Bites​ The Loco London Liquidity Survey of 2011, published in the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA’s) trade magazine Alchemist #63, showed that total daily gold trading turnover was a minimum 10x the published end-of-day net-settled trading volume. Applying the LBMA’s market research data to the silver market to scale trading, the average daily silver trading volume in London equates to 2.4 billion (B) oz. of silver daily turnover and standing claims of 5B oz. of silver for immediate London delivery. In a world that sees mine production of silver at 830M oz. per annum and an increasingly illiquid global physical silver market, this is heading for a spectacular resolution as the market disposes of a decades-old price rigging system operated under the oversight of the Bank of England.​

Big market moves feel impossible until they happen. Then, suddenly, they look inevitable. Silver has been lagging gold for what feels like forever. That’s how these things always go—until they don’t. Now, silver is squeezing higher, breaking through multi-month highs, and looking ready to challenge multi-decade highs. None of this is happening in isolation. This precious metals bull market just turned one year old. Gold futures are trading above $3,000 for the first time ever. And all of it is fueling something markets haven’t seen in years: animal spirits in the mining industry. The evidence is clear: Our custom miner index just hit an all time high.

​

The ASC Gold Rush Index tracks the biggest names in the space — Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM), Newmont ($NEM), Barrick Gold ($GOLD), and more. Think of it as a better version of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX). It’s been quietly forming a textbook accumulation pattern since 2011. Now? The breakout is here. Gold has already run. Silver is catching up. And the miners? They still have room to run. It’s Time for Miners to Play Catch-Up Historically, miners tend to lead to the downside and explode to the upside. Their moves are dramatic. They were great shorts during the last drawdown — now, they might be even better longs in this next leg higher. We’ve already nailed big trades in miners this cycle — like Orla Mining ($ORLA). But this is still early.

jog on
duc