September 2025 DDD

[qldfrog]

I and Mr Frog have been trying to figure a way to utilise this:

View attachment 209192
View attachment 209191

If we can figure it out, that would allow a pre-emptive entry into any rotation.

Plenty of time for a Sept. dip.

jog on
duc

About this:
I just have to add that my RRG system implementation is VERY Rudimentary:
I do not subscribe to a US data feed, so just get Nortgage ASX data feed;
As such , in our ASX ETF world, offer is very basic and twisted by currency edging or not etc;
I gave up trying to work purely in this realm during testing
So ultimately went down to trying to run a RRG idea system on a small realm of actual distinct shares , not sectors
Moreover, few of my usual profit taking, stalling exit etc are included ,
System is very simple and so far the results are not good, still trying to recover the initial loss (bad timing system start but that can happen) yet with a screaming market, you would expect much better outcome
The system is paying the cost of distinct shares issues:
AVG crash, BOE crash(-44%), soon WAF crash(-??), capital raising etc;
6 entries losing 25% or more out of 50 packets traded or so
These are enough to go green to red
As is, it is not a good system

 

[ducati916]

President Trump is aiming for blockbuster economic growth and a boom in America's manufacturing and AI industries. That might all be undercut by a dearth of workers needed to bring those investments to life. Why it matters: White House crackdowns on legal and illegal immigration are accelerating the nation's long-running demographic challenges, which could stunt economic growth in the years ahead. Driving the news: The latest sign that the Trump administration will make it more burdensome for corporations to rely on foreign workers came Friday. Corporations will have to pay a $100,000 fee to apply for H-1B visas, a pathway for skilled foreigners to join U.S. employment ranks, the president announced — up from $2,500. Trump also directed the Labor Department to revise pay requirements for these workers who, in some cases, are underpaid relative to U.S. workers. What they're saying: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said it won't be "economic anymore" for companies to rely on H-1B visa — incentivizing them to lean on American workers instead. "If you are going to train people, you're going to train Americans," Lutnick told reporters. State of play: The change is a blow to American firms that rely on the visas to fill a job market gap: not enough skilled U.S. workers to meet employer demand. It is the latest drain on labor supply from Trump's immigration crackdown. Lower labor supply, for example, is a likely factor in weak job growth over the summer — only 27,000 jobs a month added from May to August. This is a key tension of Trumponomics: demanding companies produce more goods here, alongside policies that cut off the supply of workers companies say they need to do so. By the numbers: The immigration slowdown is expected to make long-standing demographic issues worse. The Congressional Budget Office said this month it expects net immigration of only 400,000 this year — down from its estimate of 2 million in January. The baby boom generation is reaching retirement age, and generations that come behind them are smaller amid falling fertility rates. The CBO sees overall U.S. population growth of only 0.3% a year in the years ahead. It was 1% as recently as 2014. What to watch: Job market weakness is coinciding with sluggish labor force growth. It is difficult to distinguish the instances in which less demand, as opposed to less supply, is hurting hiring. "Strict immigration controls — a tight border, increased deportations, an end to [a Biden-era parole program and temporary protected status] and a chilling effect on participation rates for foreign-born workers — have sharply slowed growth in the labor force," Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note. The economists said "growth in labor supply has slowed at about the same rate as labor demand."

After beating headline expectations, one of the largest integrated freight & logistics stocks, FedEx $FDX, had a +0.95 reaction score. The company posted revenues of $22.20B, versus the expected $21.65B, and earnings per share of $3.83, versus the expected $3.61. Following a mixed report, the $33B residential construction giant, Lennar $LEN, had a -2.15 reaction score. Their report showed revenues of $8.81B, versus the expected $8.97B, and earnings per share of $2.29, versus the expected $2.10. Now let's dive into the fundamentals and technicals

FDX snapped a 4 quarter beatdown streak

​

FedEx had a +2.7% post-earnings reaction, and here's what happened:

Over the past year, revenue and operating income have increased by 3% and 7%, respectively. They remain on track to spin-off FedEx Freight in June 2026. We think the market will love this move. Look at what happened to General Electric after it split into three separate companies. In addition to the strong quarter, the management team also issued solid guidance for the next fiscal year, including $1B in cost savings from the company's restructuring.

We wrote about this stock in a recent column of the Weekly Beat, highlighting the bearish fundamental and technical trends. This positive earnings reaction came as a big surprise to us because nothing significant has changed fundamentally. Does the market know something we don't? Perhaps it's looking ahead to the spin-off next year? If the price can scoop-n-score above the key level of interest we've highlighted on the chart above, the squeeze will be on, and a quick move higher would likely follow. So long as FDX holds below 235, our bias will remain sideways to lower for the foreseeable future. A decisive close above that level would shift our bias to the upside.

LEN suffered its 8th consecutive negative earnings reaction

​

Lennar suffered a decline of -2.1% following this earnings report, and here's what happened:

Homebuilding revenues declined 9% year-over-year, primarily due to a decrease in sales prices. The housing market this company serves is experiencing significant weakening, as evidenced by the 17.5% year-over-year decline in gross margin. In addition to the woeful quarter, the management team decreased its forward guidance for home deliveries.

Despite a broad rally in the residential construction industry, this stock has remained in a firm technical and fundamental bear market. Moreover, Mr. Market has punished the shareholders with one of the longest beatdown streaks in the entire S&P 500. Many areas of the housing market are thriving, but this company doesn't have exposure to them. They are doing everything wrong. After a nearly 50% decline from the all-time high peak last year to the spring 2025 low, the price has stopped falling and is in a sideways consolidation. We expect this to continue until there's a catalyst for the price to breakout, which we don't anticipate will happen anytime soon. So long as LEN is below 144, the path of least resistance is likely to remain sideways to lower for the foreseeable future. An authoritative close above that level would mark the resolution of a prolonged bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern and the beginning of a new bull market.

The Russell 2000 is at an all-time high and it was four years in the making. In a market dominated by tech behemoths, small caps at last taking out a high from 2021 is a sign that the rally is finally broadening. The Federal Reserve’s easing proved the final catalyst for the small-cap universe, which is always rate-sensitive. It quickly retreated after the record, but the index’s gain of over 36% from its trough following Liberation Day on April 2 is remarkable.

Interest-rate cuts matter more than anything else. As one of the so-called Trump trades, small caps’ resurgence isn’t surprising, after they were briefly swept up in the fallout from the administration’s policy rollout. Still, the expectation that they can outperform due to policies that favor US businesses, such as deregulation, tax cuts, and tariffs, remains valid. And the way the Russell 2000 has regained its 2021 peak about two years after large caps surged past it, explains the optimism that it can now catch up:


The small-cap universe has barely started to gain ground on bigger stocks. The Russell 2000’s performance compared to the Russell 1000 index of larger caps is now just above its 200-day moving average for the first time since the brief Trump-Trade surge after the election; its long-term trend of underperformance compared to the mega caps of the Russell Top 50 Index continues:


What are the chances the rally endures and does it make sense for it to broaden beyond the usual tech high-flyers? Monetary policy and tariffs will continue to generate uncertainty. Small caps’ second-quarter results provided a boost, but they need to navigate these changing dynamics.

Bank of America’s Jill Carey Hall suggests earnings revisions and manufacturing performance are factors that could support or stymie further gains. With additional rate cuts penciled in, but not guaranteed, it makes sense to expect a sustained rally, but not a universal one. Carey argues that easing cycles tend to favor higher quality small caps (with stronger balance sheets), and the larger companies among them:

The best performing small-cap styles during cutting cycles have been Value>Growth and Quality>Risk, even when a cutting cycle didn't coincide with a recession. We've believed the low-quality rally in small caps could be in its later innings. Similarly, larger small caps (top size quintile of the Russell 2000) have outperformed microcaps (smallest quintile) 100% of the time during cutting cycles over the past 25 years.

Peter Oppenheimer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also stresses diversification away from the small group that has dominated in recent years. He points out that equity valuations are elevated, while stocks must contend with higher interest rates and inflation, slower world trade, sluggish economic growth, and rising demand on government spending, none of which were present during past structural bull markets.

That might imply looking beyond the US for value. MSCI’s index of European small caps is trading at a discount to the US. Unlike its American counterpart, it hasn’t seen a significant recovery in recent months:




Valuations are most extended in microcaps, which have outperformed since the second quarter. Apart from that, the broader space of small caps is trading at relatively cheaper valuations, as this BofA chart shows. This is a key reason for the current optimism:


Notwithstanding, small caps’ rate sensitivity serves as a caution. Alastair Pinder of HSBC Holdings Plc says that because half of small-cap debt is floating compared to 10% for the S&P 500, lower Fed funds are a much clearer tailwind — and vice versa. But many in the sector need many more cuts to help them:

Nearly 40% of constituents are loss-making versus 7% in the S&P 500, concentrated in profitless tech and early-stage biotech. These firms don’t just need modest easing; they need zero rates and QE to thrive – conditions we don’t see coming back soon.

In the meantime, small-cap businesses most burdened by funding costs may prove to be the biggest beneficiaries of Fed rate cuts, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Nathaniel Welnhofer notes. Here’s the breakdown of which sectors’ debt trades at the highest spreads. The higher the spread, the greater the potential benefit from lower rates:


While the surge in small caps hints that the rally in risk assets may finally be broadening, caution is still warranted. Rate cuts can ease funding pressures, but they’re still not a given. Structural challenges, thin margins, policy sensitivity, and heavy reliance on domestic demand persist. Whether these headwinds prevail will determine if the rally has staying power.

• The sectors you want to see leading are leading.
• We're seeing it all over the world.
• It's dangerous to fight the primary trend.

The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) is up 25% this year. It was up 33% in 2024.

Money flows to where it's treated best.

That's the point.

While many investors are out there wasting their time trying to be smarter than the market, obsessed with their "fundamentals," We're much more focused on the flow of money.

Remember, the only way anyone gets paid around here is to sell things at higher prices than where we buy them.

The underlying companies and their businesses are just a distraction, in my experience.

USA Momentum Hits New All-Time Highs​

Here's MTUM breaking out this summer to new all-time highs:



When this index is doing well, how bad could things be for the overall health of the stock market?

You're looking at a 30% weighting in U.S. Technology stocks, 17% Financials, and 12% Industrials.

These are the sectors you want to see leading during a bull market. And these are the sectors that have been driving the U.S. stock market to new all-time highs.

Small-Cap Momentum Hits New All-Time Highs​

We've been talking about small-caps hitting new all-time highs since last week. We expected money to rotate into this group, but it's happening more aggressively than I thought.

That's a good thing.

Look at the Invesco S&P SmallCap Momentum ETF (XSMO) closing at new all-time highs last week:



Like its large-cap counterparts, this index is also being driven by exposure to offensive sectors - 20% Financials, 17% Industrials, 15% Consumer Discretionary, and 13% Technology.

It's not the economy. It's not your president. It's not the fun-for-mentals.

There is more demand for these stocks than there is supply of them. If you've ever taken an economics class, you know these forces drive prices higher.

It's just math.

And it's not just American math. You're seeing stocks with high momentum breaking out around the world as well.

Here is the iShares MSCI International Momentum ETF (IMTM) hitting new all-time highs this week - driven by large exposure to Financials and Industrials:



The countries driving this index to its highest levels in history include Germany (16%), Japan (14%), the UK (13%), Canada (13%), Switzerland (7%), France 6%), Australia (6%), and some more Europe after that to finish up the list.

These are the most important countries in the world - and they are driving this index higher.

When someone tells you it's only seven stocks driving the market, you have my permission to smack them over the head. Tell them I sent you.

The last thing I want to mention is that this has nothing to do with "trading."

We all know that angry curmudgeon who thinks the market needs to care about what they have to say. And they get very upset when the market laughs off their theories.

We've all seen them. It makes them sad when the market keeps going up in price while they keep warning you it's not going to end well.

(lol... "not going to end well." The worst of offenders love using that one.)

This is more about investing and more about a happy lifestyle than it is about "trading."

This is not about "short-term swings." This is about identifying primary trends and riding them.

Just because what you think is important is not what the market thinks is important doesn't mean the market is wrong. It just means you're doing it wrong.

Price is what pays. In the short-term, maybe. But most definitely over the long-term. Trends persist.

The longer your time horizon, the more important these primary trends become.

And the more dangerous they are to fight.





Gold & Silver moving nicely.

Soybeans, on a glut of supply going down.

Crude oil....bottom in?


jog on
duc

 

[rolly1]

About this:
I just have to add that my RRG system implementation is VERY Rudimentary:
I do not subscribe to a US data feed, so just get Nortgage ASX data feed;
As such , in our ASX ETF world, offer is very basic and twisted by currency edging or not etc;
I gave up trying to work purely in this realm during testing
So ultimately went down to trying to run a RRG idea system on a small realm of actual distinct shares , not sectors
Moreover, few of my usual profit taking, stalling exit etc are included ,
System is very simple and so far the results are not good, still trying to recover the initial loss (bad timing system start but that can happen) yet with a screaming market, you would expect much better outcome
The system is paying the cost of distinct shares issues:
AVG crash, BOE crash(-44%), soon WAF crash(-??), capital raising etc;
6 entries losing 25% or more out of 50 packets traded or so
These are enough to go green to red
As is, it is not a good system

I thought it was going good Frog as you said the other day you had a 6 figure day?

 

[ducati916]

Russia Floods Market with Crude as Refining Saps



- Russia’s seaborne crude exports have risen to their highest since May 2024 after a string of Ukrainian drone strikes in recent weeks forced the country’s refiners to drastically cut their intake.

- Four-week average shipments soared to 3.62 million b/d in the week ending September 21, with volumes buoyed by the country’s refinery runs dipping below 5 million b/d for the first time since April 2022.

- On the other hand, Russia’s diesel exports have been trending around 400,000 b/d this month to date, half of this year’s peak of 820,000 b/d recorded in February.

- India remains the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, normally accounting for 1.6-1.7 million b/d of flows, however these volumes could rise to 2 million b/d soon with the additional barrels hitting the market.

- Russia’s OPEC+ production quota has been rising by 105,000 b/d over the past months, with the September target standing at 9.449 million b/d after 9.344 million b/d in August.

Market Movers

- US utility firm Sempra (NYSE:SRE) agreed to sell a 45% equity interest in its infrastructure holdings to investment firms KKR (NYSE:KKR) and Canada's Pension Plan Investment Board for $10 billion.

- US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is reportedly looking to build a portfolio in European regasification terminals, as part of its strategy to expand in LNG, potentially supplied by its assets in the Eastern Mediterranean.

- Australia's leading oil and gas producer Santos (ASX:STO) reported first gas from its $4.5 billion Barossa LNG project, aiming for peak output of 850 MMCf/d by mid-2030s.

- US oil major Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) has started drilling its ultra-deep Bandit exploration well, potentially the second field in the US Gulf of Mexico that would be producing at reservoir pressures exceeding 20,000 psi (20k).

- Global trading house Glencore (LON:GLEN) is reportedly in talks to sell its 75% controlling stake in the Kamoto Copper unit, a major copper/cobalt project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Oil prices have been volatile this week as industry watchers are following Iraq’s struggle to restart pipeline flows via Turkey after a two-year-long hiatus, with initial hopes for a quick resolution squashed by several Kurdish producers voicing their reservations. With the ‘Trump impact’ much less noticeable these days, seeing ICE Brent hover slightly below $68 per barrel, the outlook for incremental supply will be the main pricing factor in the upcoming days.

Iraq Cajoles Kurds to Restart Key Pipeline. Iraq's Federal government announced that it had reached a deal with the semi-autonomous government of Kurdistan to resume crude exports via Turkey as soon as this week, allowing for some 230,000 b/d of exports after flows were cut in March 2023.

US Court Rejects Trump's Offshore Wind Ban. The Columbia District Court issued a preliminary injunction against US President Trump's order to halt the construction of Orsted's Revolution Wind offshore project off the coast of Rhode Island, allowing the Danish wind developer to restart work.

China Receives Sixth Cargo from Arctic LNG 2. The LNG carrier Arctic Mulan delivered the sixth cargo of liquefied gas from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project to China's Beihai terminal, marking the ship's second delivery in a month after more than a year of seeing no deliveries at all.

Gold Hits Another All-Time High. Gold prices soared above $3,790 per ounce this week after new US Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, with the bullion further buoyed by physical gold premiums in India rising to their highest in 2025 to date.

EU Delays Anti-Deforestation Law Again. The European Union will delay its anti-deforestation law for the second time, with Brussels citing concerns about the safe operations of its IT systems, amidst heavy lobbying against it by US paper and pulp producers and Indonesia’s palm oil industry.

South Korea Caps Coal-Fired Generation. South Korea's Energy Ministry has mandated that coal-fired power plants minimize their operations over the next two months, halting 42 among all 55 coal plants outside the Seoul metropolitan area to suspend operations altogether.

Kuwait Brags About Production Capacity. Simultaneously with OPEC's ongoing assessment of members' total crude production capacity, Kuwait's Oil Ministry stated that it currently wields an oil production capacity of 3.2 million b/d, some 200,000 b/d higher than its year-ago assessments.

China Mulls 'Strict' Steel Capacity Curbs. According to Chinese media, Beijing is considering harsh restrictions on new steel production capacity, in line with mandated curbs in recent months that saw 2025 output dip by almost 3% year-over-year in January-August to 672 million tonnes.

Exxon Greenlights Seventh Guyana Project. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM)has taken a final investment decision on its Hammerhead development offshore Guyana, its seventh project in the country, seeking to build a 150,000 b/d FPSO that is anticipated to come online in 2029.

Traders Warm Up to Uranium Markets. According to Reuters, global trading house Mercuria has become the first commodity house to set up physical trading in uranium, competing with banking giants Goldman Sachs and Citibank in a $15 billion market heretofore dominated by banks.

Congo Announces New Cobalt Quota System. The Democratic Republic of Congo announced that it would lift its ban on cobalt exports from October 16 and replace it with an annual export quota system, allowing miners to ship 18,125 tonnes of the metal in the remaining months of 2025.

Beijing Expedites Rare Earth Exports, But Not to All. Statistics from China's customs show that the country's exports of rare earth magnets increased again to reach 6,146 metric tonnes in August, up 10.2% compared to July readings, however, outflows to the US remain down 12% from a year ago.

Russia Mulls Extension of Gasoline Export Ban. With half a dozen Russian refineries impacted by Ukrainian drone strikes in recent weeks, Russia’s Energy Ministry is considering extending its gasoline export ban through year-end as export flows dissipated to a mere 16,000 b/d last month.

• Nobody spends money like the American consumer.
• Discretionary stocks are at all-time highs.
• We just bought one of the biggest ones.

The index of Consumer Discretionary stocks closed last week at its highest levels ever.

No other consumer in the world is as good at spending money as the American consumer.

In fact, consumer spending represents a significant portion of U.S. GDP, making up approximately 70% of economic activity.

The Consumer Discretionary sector is doing well, and that usually doesn't happen during times of weakness.

Higher prices for Consumer Discretionary stocks usually means higher prices for the stock market overall.

Different Types of Consumer Stocks​

You have your Consumer Discretionary stocks, which are making new all-time highs, and you have your Consumer Staples stocks, which definitely are not doing that.

The stocks that make up the Consumer Discretionary index include the types of companies where "Consumers" spend their "Discretionary" income - things like Retailers, Automakers, and Homebuilders.

In the Consumer Staples basket, you mostly have the types of purchases Consumers would be making regardless of how bad the economy is - think toilet paper, tooth paste, beer, cigarettes, and potato chips.

When you look at the ratio between these two groups, you get a good idea about the overall flow of money into the market.

Here you can see the ratio hitting new all-time highs - favoring the Discretionary side of the equation over the Staples:



If this ratio is hitting new all-time highs, we are probably not in a bear market.

This is the type of evidence we look for to suggest we should be spending a good portion of our time looking for stocks to buy, not looking for stocks to sell.

Long-Only Managers​

The U.S. mutual fund industry represents approximately $20 trillion to $30 trillion in assets, depending on who you ask.

The bigger point here is that there is a lot of money being managed this way, by these types of fund managers.

For the most part, these portfolio managers have to be fully invested in stocks at all times - no cash, no bitcoin, no bonds, no shorting.

The way they get their bonuses is to outperform their benchmark, usually the S&P 500.

If the S&P 500 falls 20% but their portfolio only drops by 10%, they get a big fat bonus.

This "outperformance" over their benchmark is what is referred to as, "alpha."

In order to generate this "alpha" during bull markets, they tend to overweight the more offensive Consumer Discretionary stocks and underweight the more defensive Consumer Staples.

During bear markets, you'll see the opposite, as money flows much faster into Consumer Staples, as a safe haven, and out of the more aggressive Consumer Discretionary stocks.

That's how the world works, so that's what we pay attention to.

What's the Biggest Risk?​

I'm watching the offensive groups - particularly the Consumer Discretionary stocks that just closed at a new all-time high for the first time in 2025.

These are the new guys in town, so theoretically they're the most vulnerable for reversion.

I think if the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) is above last year's highs, there is little to be overly concerned about in this market:



However, if we start to slip, and you begin to see XLY back below 230, that would be the first sign that perhaps something is starting to go wrong.

If you're in the bear camp, and you think this is all a house of cards that's about to come tumbling down, so you're "one of those," this chart needs to be front and center.

The bear case, in my opinion, begins with this index falling back below last year's highs.

To be clear, that has not happened, and I am definitely betting on this uptrend continuing.

But I do want to be aware of all possibilities.

And I do want to identify - before the fact - what would need to happen in order to bring on a new level of risk to this raging bull market.

I bought one of the largest Consumer Discretionary stocks yesterday.

So my bet is still up.

Stay sharp,

The job market is worse than it looks. Tariffs' effects on inflation are probably a one-time bump. The big picture: Those two sentences, in a nutshell, explain why the Fed has resumed its interest rate cuts — even as inflation has ticked up, the unemployment rate remains low, and the stock market is at new highs. That assessment appears to be broadly shared among the many top policymakers making the speeches-and-interview rounds over the last 48 hours, even as they differ on just how far this spurt of rate-cutting ought to go. State of play: Newly appointed governor Stephen Miran has gotten a lot of attention for his dissent and public appearances arguing for much steeper interest rate cuts. He laid out his rationale in a speech yesterday. But the consensus among his colleagues is considerably simpler than Miran's esoteric reading of how immigration, tax, deregulatory and other policies are affecting the neutral rate of interest. The mainstream view on the Federal Open Market Committee is based on risk management — that the possibility of a further downshift in the job market appears to be the more pressing concern than the chance that inflation will spiral higher. Driving the news: Vice chair for supervision Michelle Bowman delivered a sharp speech this morning that lays out the case. "I am concerned about the weakening in labor market conditions and softer economic growth," Bowman told the Kentucky Bankers Association. "I am also more confident that, as trade policy has become more certain, tariffs will have only a small and short-lived effect on inflation going forward." She said that it is time to act "decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility," and that weak job growth readings "show that we are at serious risk of already being behind the curve." Of note: Even some of those who are more cautious about how aggressively to cut rates share the same basic assessment. "I supported the rate decision because I perceived the risk of labor market weakening had increased sufficiently to warrant a policy adjustment," St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said at the Brookings Institution yesterday. However, in contrast to Bowman's call for proactive action, Musalem said that "I believe there is limited room for easing further without policy becoming overly accommodative." Yes, but: Some other reserve bank presidents are even more disinclined toward rate cuts, given ongoing inflation pressures. "It worries me that if we remove that restriction on the economy, things could start overheating again," Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said yesterday in a moderated discussion. Between the lines: What does that all mean for interest rates in the months ahead? It means anything that gives officials peace of mind on the underlying solidity of the job market would weaken their confidence that the economy needs cheaper money, while surging inflation alone may not be enough to alter the path. For now, Fed policy is all about the job market.

Javier Milei’s turn to the US to save his blushes was only a matter of time. His close ties to the administration in Washington meant he could use them as a lender of last resort when trouble struck. That has now happened.

In a move which recalls the dramatic bailouts that followed the emerging-market crises of the 1980s and 1990s, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is coming to the rescue — as we are now in the 2020s, he announced it in a Twitter thread. The key points are as follows:

Argentina is a systemically important US ally in Latin America, and the US Treasury stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table. These options may include, but are not limited to, swap lines, direct currency purchases, and purchases of US dollar-denominated government debt from Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund. Opportunities for private investment remain expansive, and Argentina will be Great Again.

Past bailouts have been made far more grudgingly, with overt attempts to avoid moral hazard, and were followed by attacks from US hedge funds. This declaration, by contrast, seems curiously unconditional and open-ended — even if it does hint at enlightened self-interest with the statement that there will be opportunities for private investment ahead.

It looks like both an economic and a political rescue, as Milei’s goodwill has suddenly run out with both voters and investors after a promising start. At home, he faces widespread protests over austerity cuts; Congress, which his party doesn’t control, has vetoed a series of his proposals; and public opinion appears to be tipping against him:


Milei’s victory two years ago rested on promising hard reforms and painful belt-tightening, as well as taking a chainsaw to the bureaucracy. He billed it as the path to restoring the past glory of Latin America’s third-largest economy. At first, the public was happy to go along — but then his party’s loss in the province of Buenos Aires election earlier this month, a far worse outcome than had been expected, jolted the markets into a downward spiral. It was viewed as a no-confidence vote in his policies, spelling further doom in next month's crucial national midterms.

As Eugenia Mitchelstein, a social sciences professor at the University of San Andrés in Buenos Aires, points out, the midterm elections allow Argentinians to weigh in on whether Milei has done enough to stabilize the turbulent economy, and could have major ramifications for how he governs going forward. It will be a referendum on the politics of the chainsaw.

Once voters lost confidence, so did investors. The Buenos Aires election prompted something near panic. This is how the yield of Argentina’s 10-year bond reacted, and then to Bessent’s thread on X:


Argentina’s peso initially tanked after the poll despite the central bank reportedly selling $1 billion to defend it. Then Bessent’s remarks provided a lifeline:


A weaker currency has benefits, such as export competitiveness, but it would likely stoke inflation again. More than anything else, conquering it has to be the administration’s priority, and while the hyperinflation that followed Milei’s devaluation on entering office is over, there’s more work to be done. Inflation is above 30%, while actual price levels remain excruciatingly higher than they were two years ago:


Robin Brooks of Brookings Institution notes that this perennial “fear of floating,” or decoupling the currency from the dollar, is Argentina’s Achilles’ heel, as it limits just how much the export sector can grow. “That’s existential, because it’s only through booming exports that Argentina can ever hope to get out of the mess it’s been in for many decades now,” he says.

Milei campaigned on a platform of outright dollarization — doing away with the Argentine peso altogether and adopting the dollar — but he is not oblivious to this solution. If anything, it is the “how” that matters to him. His latest exporter tax breaks, reported by Bloomberg News, suggest that he is attempting a steady unwind of the currency to cushion against any sudden impact on inflation. On Monday, he temporarily suspended export taxes on many key crops. Exempt from those taxes, soybean farmers will reap, in pesos, an extra 25% or so for each dollar they get in revenue. For corn and wheat farmers, the rate is approximately 10%. The measures last until Oct. 31, or until crop sales under the new program reach $7 billion.

Within hours of receiving this newsletter, Milei meets Bessent in the US, after which there should be some clarity on the “large and forceful action.” The timing is critical, notes Bloomberg Economics’ Jimena Zuniga, as investors rush to price in the lifeline across asset classes. She argues that, unlike in past episodes of high indebtedness, Argentina has undertaken a significant fiscal adjustment since Milei took office. Thus, it has been facing a liquidity crisis since Sept. 7, more than a solvency crisis. It’s far easier for the US to justify tiding a country through liquidity difficulties than it would be to bail it out after spending beyond its means.

Provided fiscal discipline continues and rates decline, Argentina doesn’t have a problem of debt sustainability as much as a problem of debt management:

In contexts like this, access to finance can make the difference between unleashing a negative feedback loop and landing in a negative equilibrium or creating more constructive dynamics toward a positive outcome.

How does the US justify its intervention, which seems very much out of step with the America First philosophy of the age? Bessent describes Argentina as “systemically important,” but neighboring Brazil is much bigger and on any sensible definition even more important to the US. Yet the Trump administration has levied punitive 50% tariffs on Brazil because of a political disagreement: Trump dislikes its treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who has been sentenced to 27 years in jail for his role in planning a coup.

On balance, Brooks views the Argentine bailout as “unusual.” It looks as though Washington wants to reward Milei’s loyalty. After Elon Musk appeared on stage with him brandishing a chainsaw, he has symbolic importance. But aid for Argentina may not help court other nations into the American fold. Trump has closed off the flow of Mexican migrant laborers and imposed tariffs on Brazil, and yet both their stock markets are beating the S&P 500. It’s not clear to others in the region that there will be financial rewards for being friendly with the US:


For now, investors need to know how far the US will go to rescue Argentina. Milei only has a few weeks to save face with voters when he gets back home from his meeting. His approval ratings suggest he is in a deep hole. Bessent can avert disaster for now, but the heavy lifting rests with Milei. He must convince Argentines that he and his party have what it takes to prevent a relapse into yet another economic mess.




Full:https://www.cfr.org/blog/trump-shock-wasnt-least-not-yet

• The Silver ETF ($SLV) closed above $40 for the first time since September 2011 today as the metal continues to push toward all-time highs.
  
  
• More importantly, Silver also broke out on a relative basis ($SLV/$SPY). The ratio gapped above a three-year resistance level, marking a breakaway gap—the most bullish type of breakout.
  
  
• Silver is already outpacing equities by a wide margin this year, and today’s move sets the stage for further dominance in the months ahead. $SLV is up +57% YTD versus +14% for $SPY. It's even outshining Gold ($GLD), which is on track for its best year since inception, up +42%.
  

The Takeaway: Silver broke out to multi-year highs on both an absolute and relative basis today. The ratio ($SLV/$SPY) kicked off the week with a breakaway gap, punching through a well-defined resistance level and signaling continued leadership in the months ahead.


“Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt is the money of slaves.”

- Norm Franz




Which should be a concern. This is 1999 shite again.





Which should be telling you something.


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

I thought it was going good Frog as you said the other day you had a 6 figure day?

hi @rolly1 my system is a $50k only trial, so no 6 figures with that
i had a great day, above $10k so 5 figure.my mistake if i said 6..must have been excited
back to the RRG system, it is nudging toward breakeven after a start with bad timing on the asx (end February) but the xjt did much better.
i have now enough data to do a check vs backtests.more details coming in my thread

 

[ducati916]

The U.S. has become a major beneficiary of foreign investment in the last few years. It's a wave the Trump administration is looking to ride further — if some of the internal contradictions of its strategy don't trip things up. The big picture: There's a simple mental model of what foreign direct investment (FDI) looks like: A big, multinational company in the U.S. or Europe builds a factory somewhere labor is cheaper. But that story is outdated, according to new research from McKinsey. Rather, growth in FDI is coming from innovative industries in one advanced country building out capacity in another advanced country, most often the U.S. Instead of modest factories churning out routine consumer goods, foreign investment activity is increasingly comprised of expansive facilities costing more than $1 billion that make cutting-edge products, including semiconductors. The Trump administration seeks to build on those gains, demanding foreign investment as a component of trade deals — though that pursuit is in tension with restrictionist immigration policy and the desire to reduce the trade deficit. By the numbers: An analysis of 200,000 FDI projects announced over the last decade showed the value of investment inflows to the U.S. and Canada was 89% higher since 2022 than in the 2015-to-2019 period — mostly from other rich countries. Over the same time horizon, FDI in emerging markets in Asia fell 11%, and China went from being a net recipient of foreign investment to being an investor around the world, including in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. The patterns in the McKinsey Global Institute research are consistent with Federal Reserve data that shows the value of foreign investment in the U.S. reaching $16.9 trillion this year, more than triple the 2015 level. What they're saying: "While most advanced economies have experienced growing inflows of announced FDI, the United States stands out," write the report's authors. "Its announced annual inflows have roughly doubled compared with the prepandemic period, and amounts going to future-shaping industries have increased by even more," with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan being major contributors. Reality check: That investment surge coincided with Biden-era industrial policy meant to encourage development of semiconductors, batteries and electric vehicles. The Trump administration is pursuing different strategies. It has demanded in trade talks that Japan, South Korea and others establish funds in the hundreds of billions for investment in the U.S., subject to control by President Trump himself. Volatile U.S. trade policy is an X factor for multinationals considering major investments. Immigration policy could be a headwind. A raid on a Hyundai plant in Georgia, which led to 317 South Koreans being arrested on alleged immigration violations, has soured an agreement for a $350 billion investment fund. This week's imposition of a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas could make it expensive for companies investing in the U.S. to bring over homegrown engineering talent. Between the lines: Outsized foreign investment projects that are announced come to fruition more than half the time, McKinsey partner Olivia White tells Axios, "but it doesn't always." "Transfer of knowledge and skills, and meaningful subsequent domestic investment are key," she adds. Of note: In international economics, capital inflows like FDI are the inverse of current account deficits. Translation: If more investment floods into the U.S., it will likely translate into wider trade deficits, not the narrower ones Trump seeks.

Financial markets took a dip lower yesterday after Powell said that stock prices were "fairly highly valued." Why it matters: Powell said what some on Wall Street have been warning in recent months as the stock market continued to hit record highs. What they're saying: "We do look at overall financial conditions and we ask ourselves whether our policies are affecting financial conditions in a way that is what we're trying to achieve," Powell said during a Q&A session in Rhode Island yesterday. "By many measures, for example, equity prices are fairly highly valued," Powell added. Importantly, Powell said that he did not believe financial stability risks were elevated. The big picture: The comments came after Powell said in a speech that a weakening labor market justified the Fed's interest rate cut last week. There "has been a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers — an unusual and challenging development," Powell said during his speech. The intrigue: The expectation of further rate cuts to buffet the economy has helped ignite gains in the stock market, which has largely been driven by AI excitement in the past year. But Powell said that more rate cuts are not a definite, given a continued upside risk to inflation. "Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation," Powell said. The bottom line: It was not the "irrational exuberance" moment, when former Fed chair Alan Greenspan questioned the richness of the stock market in 1996 — but Powell suggested that stock price valuations might not reflect reality.

The only earnings reaction on Tuesday came from the $69B specialty retailer, AutoZone $AZO. The stock fell in absolute terms, but had a slightly positive reaction score. The company posted revenues of $6.24B, versus the expected $6.25B, and earnings per share of $48.71, versus the expected $50.73. Now let's dive into the fundamentals and technicals

AZO suffered its 3rd consecutive negative earnings reaction

​

AutoZone had a -0.02% post-earnings reaction, and here's what happened:

Year-over-year, net sales increased by 6.9% and net income grew by 1.3%. To fuel future growth, the management team is aggressively opening new stores. In the last quarter, they opened 90 net new domestic stores and 51 international stores. In addition to the quarterly report, the management team said they expect to open 325 to 350 new stores in the Americas next year. This should start hitting the income statement in the second half of 2026.

We wrote about this stock in Sunday's column of the Weekly Beat, highlighting how the company has been consistently missing its headline expectations. Sure enough, they did it again this quarter, and shareholders were punished for it. These negative fundamental events have been met with consistent negative earnings reactions and poor relative performance. We also talked about how the post-earnings drift is almost always negative. That's why we expect the price to retest the shelf of former highs from earlier this year. We expect AZO to retest 3,916, hold the line, and churn sideways.

So yield spreads first: we have the bizzare situation where corporate credits are actually considered 'safer' than US government paper.

With the LEI chart: the only thing positive are the financial markets. LOL. The actual economy is collapsing.

Today we are seeing some red in the market.





The bulls will say nothing to worry about.

But, stocks are overvalued, overstretched and priced for perfection. Bad stuff can happen.


Long article, but worth the read:

Full:https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-every-country-needs-to-master



The other day I gave a talk at a conference in Canada about industrial policy. When we came to the inevitable question of which specific industries Canada should target, I had an answer ready: “the Electric Tech Stack”.

The fact that I had an answer ready surprised some people in the audience. The traditional criticism of industrial policy is that it’s all about “picking winners”, and that winners are very hard for even the smartest person to pick. But in some cases it’s actually very easy to pick winners. In the 19th century, every country knew they needed railroads, both for national defense and for transporting goods. In the 20th century, many countries knew they needed an auto industry, because those same assembly lines and supply chains could be quickly repurposed to make tanks and other military vehicles in case of a war. In the early 20th century, countries knew that having a steel industry was crucial for creating most of the important military equipment, while in the later century, the U.S. correctly guessed that having a powerful semiconductor industry was crucial for dominance in precision weaponry.

In all four of these cases, there were arguments about the economic benefits of promoting the industries in question, but in the end it was military necessity that tipped the balance decisively in favor of industrial policy. As I told the folks in Canada, a similar thing is true in the 2020s.

In the mid 19th and early 20th centuries, railroads won wars by letting countries move supplies rapidly to the front. In the mid 20th century, wars were won by the countries that could produce lots of military vehicles like tanks and planes. In the early 21st century, the ability to win wars relies on being able to produce lots of drones.

Just a few years ago, my amateurish prediction that drones would dominate the modern battlefield was often met with a combination of amusement and scorn. Then the Ukraine War came along, and what had seemed like a crank prediction became conventional wisdom in just a few years. Every serious observer now recognizes that drones are the essential weapon of modern warfare. These little battery-powered toys are defeating infantry and armored vehicles alike. IFRI reports:

[T]he Russian invasion of Ukraine has become the theater of a massive drone-driven transformation of military operations. This phenomenon is unprecedented, both in quantitative terms—with several million drones now produced and destroyed each year—and in its influence on the dynamics of operations and the structure of forces. For context, the most drone-intensive conflict prior to 2022 was the war over Nagorno-Karabakh, where drones were responsible for around 45% of all losses in armored vehicles, artillery, and air defense systems. In Ukraine, by 2025, drones are estimated to account for 60 to 70% of all losses across all categories.

For both belligerents, drones have thus become the primary sensors, relays, and [weapons]. They constitute a robotic and increasingly automated nervous system that shapes fire support and movement coordination across all domains and operational environments…[D]rones serve simultaneously as binoculars, grenades, and mortars for infantry, who continuously reconfigure them to adapt to the enemy. They have also taken a central role in counter-battery fire, deep reconnaissance, and battlefield interdiction—roles traditionally reserved for Army aviation. At a strategic depth, they are reshaping methods of penetrating air defenses and, through cost-effective mass deployment, they are enabling maneuvering salvos against critical, economic, and political targets central to the adversary’s war effort.

More fundamentally, drones have allowed both the Ukrainian and Russian armies to maintain coherence and combat effectiveness under extreme attrition in personnel and heavy equipment. They provide the shock element needed for offensive thrusts and the stopping power required to hold or retake positions. In this sense, drones saturate the front lines like a permanent grapeshot or a reactive shield against enemy breakthroughs. They infiltrate and prowl the rear areas, hunting fire support assets and logistics, posing a constant threat to any troop or equipment rotation. They also conduct long-range raids against infrastructure and troop concentrations. [emphasis mine]

And this is all before autonomous AI-controlled drone swarms enter the battlefield in force, as everyone now expects them to do very soon.

So if you want to be able to defend your country against attack in the 21st century, you really need to be able to either make large amounts of drones yourself, or reliably procure them from a country that you know will sell them to you at a reasonable price during wartime. And if you want to be able to make drones, you also need to be able to make or reliably source the materials and components that go into a drone. In fact, drones aren’t very hard to assemble, so controlling the supply chains for those materials and components is actually the whole ball game.

What are the parts that make up a drone? Some of it is stuff like injection-molded plastic, but that’s easy. If you look at a diagram of what goes into a drone, like the one at the top of this post, you can see what the actually important components are. They are:

1. A lithium-ion battery, to power the drone

2. Some permanent-magnet electric motors, to make the propellers move

3. Some power electronics in the power distribution board and the electronic flight controllers — to turn power from the battery into a form the motors can use

4. Some trailing-edge computer chips, in the receiver, the telemetry module, the flight controller, etc.

Everyone already knows about the importance of the chip industry, and chips have been militarily important for a very long time now. But the importance of the first three — batteries, electric motors, and power electronics — is new. I now refer to these three items as the Electric Tech Stack.

If you want to be able to defend your country, you simply have no choice but to secure the Electric Tech Stack. And this includes securing the minerals that are necessary to create the Stack, especially rare earths like neodymium and other minerals like gallium. If you don’t do this, you are perpetually at risk of having your drone supply cut off, which will cause you to rapidly lose any modern war.

This is the first key fact about the Electric Tech Stack. The second key fact is that if you can master it, you can master a wide variety of modern manufacturing industries as well.

The Electric Tech Stack is the key to modern manufacturing
​

A few months ago, I interviewed Sam D’Amico, the founder and CEO of Impulse Labs,1 about how the U.S. can win back manufacturing:


Sam — who is one of the best engineers I’ve ever met — argued that there is now a suite of just a few core technologies that are the key to manufacturing an increasingly wide array of products. In the past, manufacturing industries were very differentiated — making a car, an airplane, a telephone, a TV, and a stove all involved very different production processes and very different supply chains. Being able to manufacture cars didn’t really make you able to manufacture TVs, or vice versa.

According to Sam, that’s changing as we speak. Electric motors are overtaking combustion engines as the fundamental technology that makes machines move. This means that the same supply chains and production processes that allow you to make electronics will now also allow you to make cars, drones, motorcycles, robots, appliances, and a bunch of other products.

This is why a company like Xiaomi, which makes phones and other electronics, was able to become one of China’s top EV manufacturers in short order — making a phone is no longer that different from making a car. And it’s why BYD is now arguably the world’s #1 manufacturing company. The more different products you make that use the Electric Tech Stack, the more you can harness economies of scale and drive prices lower, thus securing market dominance.

Kyle Chan had a great post about China’s top companies back in January, in which he drew a helpful diagram:



Source: Kyle Chan
The list of technologies that these companies target corresponds very well to the Electric Tech Stack.

In recent weeks, more people from the tech world have begun vocally recognizing the importance of the Electric Tech Stack. Ryan McEntush of Andreessen Horowitz wrote a great post about it:

[We] need a bridge that truly connects bits to atoms.

That bridge is the electro‑industrial stack — the technologies that enable machines to behave like software: minerals and metals processed into advanced components, energy stored in batteries, electrons channeled by power electronics, force delivered by motors and actuators, all orchestrated by software running on high-performance compute…

The electro-industrial stack is changing how we build and run machines…Electrified systems, built on batteries, power electronics, and high-torque motors, are more efficient, more precise, and more responsive to software. They can be tested in simulation, updated over the air, and improved continuously as telemetry feeds back into design…In other words, with the electro-industrial stack, physical machines are beginning to behave like software…
The electro-industrial stack is the bridge between software and the physical world, the foundation animating the machines that will ultimately shape the future…No company illustrates this power more clearly than BYD. What began as a Chinese battery maker now dominates the global EV market and extends into cargo ships, trains, buses, and industrial equipment. BYD even supplies more than half of DJI’s drones, by some accounts. This breadth is possible because its products share the same core technologies in which BYD has built deep expertise — mineral sourcingand refining, batteries, motors/actuators, power electronics, compute, and final assembly.

We should not aim to build an “American BYD”, but we must create its equivalent through an ecosystem of integrated suppliers and OEMs[.]

McEntush makes an excellent point that I had missed, which is that electric tech products interface with software more easily than did old combustion-engine or analog technologies.

Back in May, Daan Walter, Sam Butler-Sloss, and Kingsmill Bond wrote a great post arguing that Western countries have been slow to embrace the Electric Tech Stack because they’ve insisted on seeing it as a climate issue rather than being about national defense, manufacturing industries, and cheap power:

The Electrotech Revolution
Rewiring the energy debate
The debate on the future of energy is a mess. Ask a dozen pundits about the energy transition and you’ll hear a familiar chorus of gloom: electric vehicles stall, net-zero targets unravel, emissions climb, and the fossil fuel industry is emboldened. The world, we’re told, is failing to decarbonize. Energy transition? What transition? With Trump back in …
Read more
4 months ago · 124 likes · 22 comments · Daan Walter, Sam Butler-Sloss, and Kingsmill Bond
And the best (and longest) post about the Electric Tech Stack was written by Packy McCormick, who worked with Sam D’Amico to produce an epic explainer about modern electric technology and why it’s taking over:

Not Boring by Packy McCormick
The Electric Slide
Welcome to the 1,269 newly Not Boring people who have joined us since our last essay! Join 248,515 smart, curious folks by subscribing here…
Read more
a month ago · 741 likes · 60 comments · Packy McCormick and Sam D'Amico
This “post” is basically a short book, but it’s worth reading. It explains:

1. How each piece of the Electric Tech Stack works, and why it will inevitably take over more and more industries
2. Why AI dominance will also depend on mastering the Electric Tech Stack
3. Why China now controls most of the Electric Tech Stack, even though the key technologies were mostly invented in America or Japan
4. Some ideas for how the U.S. can build the Electric Tech Stack domestically

Packy makes another key point that I left out above, about the connections between electric tech and AI. AI takes a huge amount of electric power; solar and wind are the cheapest power sources, but they require batteries to smooth out their intermittency. In other words, supremacy in the software industry in the 21st century will probably require a strong presence in (electric) physical industry as well.

I’ll talk more in a later post about the specific industrial policies that countries can take in order to build up their Electric Tech Stack. For now, I just want to emphasize two key points:

1. Drones are the key to hard power in the early 21st century. If your country can’t make drones, you’re in trouble.
2. If you have the ability to make drones domestically, you can also manufacture an increasingly large percentage of everything else.

These two points make it clear what kind of industrial policy government should be pursuing right now. Promoting the Electric Tech Stack is crucial for national defense. Fortunately, it’s also helpful for growing new manufacturing industries.

In this situation, we don’t need to tear our hair out asking which industries the government should promote; as in the era of the railroads, the answer is bleedingly obvious. A core set of “winners” has already been picked for us — it’s just batteries, electric motors, power electronics, and chips.

This is a lesson China has learned, and the West has not yet learned.

• The ability to count can be very helpful.
• Most people don't take the time to count.
• It's a bull market, and we're looking for Supernova Trades...

Stop. Take a step back. Look around.

We're in the middle of a bull market in equities - and not just in the U.S. mega-caps that kicked things off.

Participation is broadening. It's global. And it's finally spilling down into the smaller names that had been sitting on the sidelines.

That's exactly what you expect in a healthy bull: Leadership starts with the early winners, then more and more stocks join the party as the trend strengthens.

That's what's happening right now.

They Were So Wrong ​

Not everybody gets it right.

In fact, the strongest bull markets of all time start when almost no one expects it.

Take the current cycle, for example.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed out in September 2022. The S&P 500 put in its low in October of that year. And the Nasdaq didn't find a bottom until the end of December of 2022.

But the list of stocks making new 52-week lows peaked in June 2022. By the time the indexes made their final lows, the majority of stocks were already on their way up.

Most investors don't bother to count. So this is one of those cases where my ability to count was really helpful.

We knew the markets had turned. I even told Maria Bartiromo in mid-October that we were in a new bull market and that we had to be buying stocks.

This was on Live television on October 14, 2022. She looked at me like I was crazy.

As 2023 approached, Wall Street analysts all came out with their predictions for the coming year, as is tradition around their antiquated systems.

But for the first time this century, Wall Street agreed that the S&P 500 would actually fall in value throughout 2023. In fact, a recession was practically guaranteed, according to economists.

Well, not only did the market NOT fall in 2023, the Nasdaq literally doubled from there.

The S&P 500 went on to put up back-to-back 20%-plus years in what turned into one of the most historic rallies of all time.

Again, this was after Wall Street analysts were at consensus that stocks would fall.

Mathematically, they could not have been more wrong.

I tell you this story because that sort of divergence rubs people the wrong way. They don't like how badly they messed up, and that's where the blame-game starts.

A bubble is basically a bull market that you don't own.

And a ponzi scheme is a stock going up in price that you're not smart enough to understand.

This is how humans justify their poor choices.

My three-year-old niece tends to cry when she gets confused too. She reminds me of the adults behaving like babies when they miss bull markets.

You see, not everything that you're not smart enough to understand has to be a ponzi scheme, or a house of cards, or a bubble.

If you actually take the time to count, you'll notice that this is just a regular bull market.

It's not the best one ever, it's not the longest one ever, it's not the worst or shortest one ever either. It's a pretty standard bull market so far.

In fact, in terms of both duration and amplitude, this bull market, by all historical measures, still has room to run.

In other words, there is still more upside, and this can take a lot longer, just to get to average bull markets.

That doesn't make it a bubble or a ponzi scheme. It's just a bull market.

During bull markets, stocks go up quite frequently. And investors who own stocks during bull markets tend to make a lot more money than investors who do not own stocks.

So I encourage you to stop, take a breather, and look around. This is what a bull market is like.

At some point, we will begin to see breadth deterioration, leaders start to drop off, rotation into defensive areas, and evidence of distribution among equities.

That has not happened yet. It will. But we haven't seen it.

And just because you haven't seen it yet, and this bull market is exceeding your expectations, doesn't mean it's a bubble or a ponzi scheme.

Maybe it just means that you're not good at identifying bull markets.

Maybe you should spend some more time counting and less time complaining.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So @rederob would be quite correct. I do 'plaigiarise' from many sites, sources, persons (dead and alive) to cobble together a daily post.

Due to working a day job and trading, I don't always have time for the correct attribution to the various persons responsible when posting.

So this will be the last post on this series of threads.

jog on

duc

 

[Sean K]

View attachment 209460


So @rederob would be quite correct. I do 'plaigiarise' from many sites, sources, persons (dead and alive) to cobble together a daily post.

Due to working a day job and trading, I don't always have time for the correct attribution to the various persons responsible when posting.

So this will be the last post on this series of threads.

jog on

duc

This is very disturbing. How can I start my day without a DDD? I demand a recount.

 

[ShareSuccess]

I Don't Give 2 Hoots Where you Get the info From Duc, The information Educates all Who Enjoy & read on a Daily Basis.

There is plaigiarism In Every New Book as Authors Study The Past History of Books Written on The Same Subject Matter in Writing Their Own on Such, So Please ignore & continue To Post!

P.s I'm Not Advocating plaigiarism To Those who May Think so, I'm simply saying it's Not the end of The World & the Site may lose a valuable Member all Because of a Simple Error.

 

[Antirnator]

So this will be the last post on this series of threads.

jog on

duc

The internet has spoken your sentiment is...

 

[Joe Blow]

I don't think it matters where the information has come from. The question is, is it informative? Is it useful? Is it appreciated?

I think the answer to those questions is a resounding YES.

The time taken to assemble such posts from a variety of sources must be considerable.