September 2025 DDD

[ducati916]

So looking a little toppy.


The big picture:


The real threat to the U.S. in the future is not China, but rather the U.S. itself. The U.S. will bury itself. That’s because it has not yet realized that a big era is coming and the financial capitalism that the U.S. represents will reach its peak and then start falling. On the one hand, the U.S. has already taken full advantage of benefits that capital generates. On the other hand, via the technological innovation that the U.S. leads, the U.S. pushes the Internet, big data, and cloud computing to an extreme. These tools will eventually become the forces that end financial capitalism.


Taobao.com and tmall.com, both under the Alibaba company, registered 50.7 billion yuan (US$8.2 billion) in sales on November 11, 2014. A few weeks later, the total Internet sales plus the in-store sales in the U.S. market in the three-day Thanks-giving weekend was only 40.7 billion yuan (US$6.6 billion). The 50.7 billion yuan is only the sales for one-day on Alibaba, not including 163.com, qq.com, jd.com, and other online stores in China, nor including any physical store sales.


All Alibaba’s sales were done via Alipay (an electronic payment system). What does Alipay mean? It means that currency is out of the trade platform. The U.S. hegemony is based on its dollar. What is the dollar? It is a currency. In the future, when we stop using currency to complete sales, the traditional currency will be useless. Will the empire that is established on currency still exist? That is the question that the Americans should think about.




Full:https://chinascope.org/archives/6458


What makes sense is that the Chinese payment systems, which brings together Chinese finance and Chinese cloud capital in a most effective way, just visit WeChat and you'll see what I mean, is a mortal danger for the monopoly of the dollar. The war in Ukraine did something quite interesting. This superhighway of all singing, all dancing, digital payments, Chinese payments, the WeChat and the digital currency of the Central Bank of China, that was already there.


But it's like building a superhighway. You can imagine five lanes on each side and a big spanking new beautiful highway with no cars on it. Because if you were a capitalist, even if you're a Chinese capitalist, you still wanted to use a dollar. Because if you produce aluminum in Shenzhen, you want to sell most of it to the Americans. So you want to sell it for dollars, and then you take your dollars and you take it to Wall Street and you buy American bonds and you buy real estate in Miami and so on.


So the Chinese capitalists didn't even want to use this superhighway of payments. But the moment the United States together with a European confiscated 450 billion worth of Russian money... I'm not judging this. I'm not saying they should have done it or not have done it. I'm simply saying they did it.


So imagine you are a Saudi Arabian Sheikh or the Emir of some Emirate or some Indonesian bigwig. And you think, "Oh my God, they confiscated 450 billion smackers because they didn't like their policies. Well, they may not like me tomorrow, because I'm not the best guy in the world." They know that, right? "Well, maybe I should hedge my bets, not put all my money in the dollar system. I will put most of my money in the dollar system, but I will put some in the Chinese superhighway."


The Americans see that. The smart people in Washington see it as a serious threat because if they lose the monopoly of the dollar system, of the payment system internationally, that's it. The United States is finished.

Full:

Interestingly it has been taken down.

I have been following the whole Fed drama all week and the nonsense about Fed independence yada, yada.

The issue is very simple: Trump and the Treasury need lower rates yesterday and Powell is not playing ball. Look at the West, producers of debt:



Long end rates are rising even in the face of Central Bank cuts.

Which means that Trump and Bessent will need to continue to issue new debt at the short end. They have a cunning plan, which will also essentially end-the-Fed in the short term and allow the Treasury to self fund, at least for a while.


jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

View attachment 207323View attachment 207322View attachment 207321View attachment 207319View attachment 207318


So looking a little toppy.


The big picture:


The real threat to the U.S. in the future is not China, but rather the U.S. itself. The U.S. will bury itself. That’s because it has not yet realized that a big era is coming and the financial capitalism that the U.S. represents will reach its peak and then start falling. On the one hand, the U.S. has already taken full advantage of benefits that capital generates. On the other hand, via the technological innovation that the U.S. leads, the U.S. pushes the Internet, big data, and cloud computing to an extreme. These tools will eventually become the forces that end financial capitalism.


Taobao.com and tmall.com, both under the Alibaba company, registered 50.7 billion yuan (US$8.2 billion) in sales on November 11, 2014. A few weeks later, the total Internet sales plus the in-store sales in the U.S. market in the three-day Thanks-giving weekend was only 40.7 billion yuan (US$6.6 billion). The 50.7 billion yuan is only the sales for one-day on Alibaba, not including 163.com, qq.com, jd.com, and other online stores in China, nor including any physical store sales.


All Alibaba’s sales were done via Alipay (an electronic payment system). What does Alipay mean? It means that currency is out of the trade platform. The U.S. hegemony is based on its dollar. What is the dollar? It is a currency. In the future, when we stop using currency to complete sales, the traditional currency will be useless. Will the empire that is established on currency still exist? That is the question that the Americans should think about.




Full:https://chinascope.org/archives/6458


What makes sense is that the Chinese payment systems, which brings together Chinese finance and Chinese cloud capital in a most effective way, just visit WeChat and you'll see what I mean, is a mortal danger for the monopoly of the dollar. The war in Ukraine did something quite interesting. This superhighway of all singing, all dancing, digital payments, Chinese payments, the WeChat and the digital currency of the Central Bank of China, that was already there.


But it's like building a superhighway. You can imagine five lanes on each side and a big spanking new beautiful highway with no cars on it. Because if you were a capitalist, even if you're a Chinese capitalist, you still wanted to use a dollar. Because if you produce aluminum in Shenzhen, you want to sell most of it to the Americans. So you want to sell it for dollars, and then you take your dollars and you take it to Wall Street and you buy American bonds and you buy real estate in Miami and so on.


So the Chinese capitalists didn't even want to use this superhighway of payments. But the moment the United States together with a European confiscated 450 billion worth of Russian money... I'm not judging this. I'm not saying they should have done it or not have done it. I'm simply saying they did it.


So imagine you are a Saudi Arabian Sheikh or the Emir of some Emirate or some Indonesian bigwig. And you think, "Oh my God, they confiscated 450 billion smackers because they didn't like their policies. Well, they may not like me tomorrow, because I'm not the best guy in the world." They know that, right? "Well, maybe I should hedge my bets, not put all my money in the dollar system. I will put most of my money in the dollar system, but I will put some in the Chinese superhighway."


The Americans see that. The smart people in Washington see it as a serious threat because if they lose the monopoly of the dollar system, of the payment system internationally, that's it. The United States is finished.

Full:

Interestingly it has been taken down.

I have been following the whole Fed drama all week and the nonsense about Fed independence yada, yada.

The issue is very simple: Trump and the Treasury need lower rates yesterday and Powell is not playing ball. Look at the West, producers of debt:

View attachment 207324

Long end rates are rising even in the face of Central Bank cuts.

Which means that Trump and Bessent will need to continue to issue new debt at the short end. They have a cunning plan, which will also essentially end-the-Fed in the short term and allow the Treasury to self fund, at least for a while.


jog on
duc

Nice to have an early insight into September.

 

[ducati916]

Bond market remains sanguine.




USD found a short term bottom?





30yr looking closely at 5%.


For the moment $MOVE indicates all is well. However a rising USD and rising 30yr/10yr would upset the apple cart.


Bessent has indicated that stablecoins are definitely part of his short term plan in allowing continued roll-over of debt and continued deficit spending.

Here is an excerpt:


Before the emergence of stablecoins, the US Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department always bailed out Eurodollar banking institutions when they got into trouble. A well-functioning Eurodollar market was essential to the health of the empire. But now, there is a new tool that allows Bessent to soak up those flows. At the macro level, Bessent must provide a reason for Eurodollar deposits to shift on-chain.

For example, during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the Fed secretly lent billions of dollars to foreign banks who were short dollars because of the knock-on effects of the collapse of subprime mortgages and their associated derivatives.[2] As a result, Eurodollar depositors believe that the US government implicitly guarantees their money even though technically they are outside of the US-regulated financial system. Declaring that non-US bank branches will not receive any help from the Fed or Treasury should another financial crisis occur will redirect Eurodollar deposits into the loving hands of stablecoin issuers. If you think this is far-fetched, a strategist at Deutsche Bank wrote a piece openly questioning whether the US would weaponize dollar swap lines to force the Europeans to do what the Trump administration requires of them. You better believe Trump would love nothing more than to castrate the Eurodollar market by effectively debanking it. These same institutions debanked his family after his first term; it’s time for payback. Karma is a bitch.

Without the guarantee, Eurodollar depositors would act in their own best interest by moving funds into dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT. Tether holds all of its assets as US bank deposits and or T-bills. By law, the US government guarantees all deposits held at the eight Too Big to Fail (TBTF) banks; ‌post the 2023 Regional Banking Crisis, the Fed and Treasury effectively guaranteed all deposits at any US bank or branch. The default risk of T-bills is nil as well because the US government will never voluntarily go bankrupt because it can always print dollars to repay T-bill holders. Therefore, stablecoin deposits are risk-free in nominal dollar terms, but now Eurodollar deposits are not.

Quickly, dollar-pegged stablecoin issuers will face an influx of $10 to $13 trillion, and subsequently purchase T-bills. The stablecoin issuer becomes a price-insensitive buyer of Buffalo Bill Bessent’s dogshit paper in ******* SIZE!

Even if Fed chairperson beta cuck towel bitch boy Powell continues to obstruct Trump’s monetary agenda by refusing to cut Fed Funds, end quantitative tightening, and restart quantitative easing, Bessent could offer T-bills at a lower rate than Fed Funds. He could do this because the stablecoin issuer must buy whatever he is selling at the yield offered if they are to earn a profit. In a few moves, Bessent gains control of the front end of the yield curve. There is no point in the Fed’s continued existence. Maybe a statue of Bessent in the style of “Perseus with the Head of Medusa” by Cellini will tower over some square in Washington D.C. entitled “Bessent with the Head of The Creature From Jekyll Island”.


Full:https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/buffalo-bill

Essentially we are living through a moment in history that will see a total reset of the monetary system.

Now you can play this:

(a) with gold;
(b) with BTC;
(c) with a mix of (a) and (b).

I am not a fan of BTC but I have added an IBIT ETF for BTC. I will never actually want to hold BTC, but I'll play the roll with the ETF.

This is why that the drama of 'sacking' a Fed govenor is misguided. The real issue is getting the FFR or short end close to or ZIRP so that the rollover debt and new debt can again be financed at close to free via stablecoins.

China is crushing the US. At least Trump and Bessent recognise the problem.


The markets are asleep (it would seem) to the issues and threats. Obviously the gold market is aware as it is in the early innings of a secular bull market. But the stock market seems unaware. I say unaware because the really speculative garbage is rising faster than the stuff you would really need down the road.

Are we 1999 or 2000?

Not sure, but at some point this ends badly.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

What happened last week

Monday: After reporting a double beat, Workday $WDAY suffered its 3rd negative earnings reaction out of its last 4. The company is undergoing a significant restructuring, which includes reducing its workforce and acquiring other companies. The $185B software giant, Intuit $INTU, beat headline expectations but fell 5%. This negative reaction did significant technical damage, confirming a failed breakout above the prior cycle peak.

Tuesday: There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions to cover, so we highlighted the Chinese Technology ETF $CQQQ. The fund is decisively resolving a textbook multi-year bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern. We also covered the latest earnings reaction from PDD Holdings $PDD, and its base-on-base pattern that we think looks great.

Wednesday: There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions to cover, but North of the border, Canada's banking giants are stealing our attention. From Wall Street to Frankfurt to Hong Kong, financial stocks are climbing higher together. Now, the Canadian giants - the Big 5 - are joining in, and they’re doing so in spectacular fashion.

Thursday: After reporting a double, the $23B specialty retailer, Williams-Sonoma $WSM, suffered its 3rd consecutive negative earnings reaction. This company is at the forefront of Trump's Tariff War, and the market doesn't like it. The $11B packaged foods stock known for its PB&J and much more, J.M. Smucker $SJM, posted mixed results and got slammed. The price is on the cusp of resolving a multi-decade distribution pattern.

Friday: The darling of the AI Revolution, Nvidia $NVDA, crushed Wall Street's expectations again, but had a slightly negative earnings reaction. Their data center revenue is growing at an astounding 56% year-over-year. Finally, the $23B cybersecurity giant, CrowdStrike $CRWD, posted a double beat and rallied 4.6%. This reaction formed a textbook bullish engulfing candlestick and snapped a streak of 3 consecutive negative earnings reactions.

What's happening next week

​

Next week will be all about Broadcom $AVGO. The $1.4T semiconductor company reported 46% year-over-year growth in its AI semiconductor revenue last quarter. Market participants will be closely watching for signs of a slowdown or acceleration. Beyond those, we’ll also be watching: The $245B software giant, Salesforce $CRM. In apparel retail, we'll hear from Lululemon Athletica $LULU and American Eagle Outfitters $AEO. And the up-and-coming Chinese EV producer, NIO $NIO. In addition, we'll hear from one of 2025's hottest IPOs, Figma $FIG. Since the stock's brief post-IPO pump, shareholders have been aggressively dumping, pushing the price to new all-time lows. It's set to be another eventful week, so there will be plenty to cover in The Daily Beat. Now, let’s dig into the setups we'll be monitoring closest next week.

Here's the setup in AVGO ahead of Thursday's earnings report

​

Broadcom is expected to post $15.83B in revenue and EPS of $1.66 after Thursday's closing bell. Heading into the report, the price is stuck below a key Fibonacci extension level from its over 40% decline earlier this year. While it wouldn't surprise us to see a negative reaction after seeing how the market responded to Nvidia's $NVDA report last week, we still love this name over longer timeframes. Since going public in 2009 at 1.65, the share price has increased to nearly 300, growing at a staggering 38.34% CAGR. Additionally, late last year, the stock had its best earnings reaction ever following a blockbuster report. That week also marked the best one-week changeever relative to NVDA, which we believe was the initiation of a brand-new uptrend compared to its $4.2T peer. We think this is the new leader of the semiconductor industry.

Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for AVGO

​

Over the past three years, Broadcom has consistently crushed Wall Street estimates and been rewarded for it. In its last 2 reports, the year-over-year EPS growth accelerated to over 40%, and the market is expecting similar growth this quarter. Shareholders have been rewarded for 2 of the last 3 earnings reports since the historic reaction we mentioned earlier. The bottom line is that this stock tends to deliver, but the market’s reaction will likely hinge on what's happening in the broader market. As Alfonso pointed out earlier this month, semiconductors are hitting resistance. Whether or not that resistance holds is to be determined. We'll learn more about the group this week with AVGO's report after Thursday's closing bell and the reaction on Friday.

Here's the setup in CRM ahead of Wednesday's earnings report

​

Salesforce is projected to report $10.14B in revenue and EPS of $2.78 after Wednesday's closing bell. Technically, the stock is carving out a textbook multi-year distribution pattern. A close below 226 would shift the path of least resistance from sideways to lower for the foreseeable future. On a relative basis, the price has already resolved a similar top compared to the broader market. These new multi-year lows in relative terms are supportive of new lows in absolute terms. We think Wednesday's report could be the catalyst for the bears to take control of this name decisively.

Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for CRM

​

As you can see, Salesforce's top and bottom-line growth have been decelerating recently. Confirming the bearish shift in fundamentals are back-to-back negative earnings reactions. This isn't the only trad-software name that's struggling. In Monday's Daily Beat, we highlighted the negative earnings reactions in Workday $WDAY and Intuit $INTU. The market is telling us loud and clear that AI is killing companies in the software industrial complex that are failing to innovate. With the technicals confirming the negative fundamental outlook, we expect the market to punish CRM for its earnings report after the closing bell on Wednesday.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/an-emergency-non-emergency-post





Full:https://www.wsj.com/business/retail...8?st=Q73vm6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink






Full:https://www.wsj.com/business/retail...8?st=Q73vm6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink



Centuries' worth of experience walked out of key government agencies this summer, including high-level departures from the CDC, Pentagon and intelligence community just in the past week.
Why it matters: President Trump and his allies believe the "Deep State," scientific establishment and federal bureaucracy were overdue for a purge. They're ushering in a government in which the officials maintaining nuclear weapons, monitoring medical trials or guarding state secrets have shorter resumes and smaller staffs — likely for many years to come.




Driving the news: Three of the CDC's top scientists resigned this week after director Susan Monarez was fired, with hundreds of staffers staging a walkout in support of their outgoing colleagues and opposition to HHS leadership.

• Demetre Daskalakis, who resigned as the CDC's vaccine chief, claimed Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his team were manipulating data "to achieve a political end."
• He also warned that the hollowing out of agencies like his would leave the U.S. ill prepared for future public health emergencies, telling the NYT: "We really are losing the people who know how to do this."
• Kennedy, who once called the CDC a "cesspool of corruption," said Thursday that "there's a lot of trouble at CDC, and it's going to require getting rid of some people over the long term... to change the institutional culture."

Zoom out: Around 3,000 CDC staffers have resigned or been fired since January. Agencies like the FDA and National Institutes of Health have also shed thousands of staff, including many highly trained scientists.

• The exodus of expertise has also affected roles focused on cyber defense, nuclear safety, extreme weather forecasting and disaster response.

Departures over the last week or so from America's national security agencies have been particularly eyebrow-raising.

• Defense Intelligence Agency director Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse was fired, Doug Beck abruptly resigned as the head of the Pentagon's Silicon Valley-based Defense Innovation Unit, and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin retired two years ahead of schedule.
• The list of exits since Trump took office includes the heads of the Joint Chiefs, the National Security Agency, the Coast Guard and the Naval Reserve, as well as senior leaders from the Air Force, Navy and NATO — all career officers with decades of service, Axios' Colin Demarest reports.
• While the administration hasn't provided explanations for each individual ouster, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has railed against "woke" generals and emphasized Trump's authority to elevate leaders he trusts.

Friction point: When Intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard announced she was slashing her staff by 40% last week, she called the intelligence community "bloated" and "rife with abuse of power, unauthorized leaks of classified intelligence, and politicized weaponization of intelligence."

• One outgoing veteran of the intelligence community told Axios that under Gabbard's leadership, experience garnered suspicion rather than respect. "It just means you have been brainwashed for 30 years — sucking off the teat of the American people for decades."
• The official contended that Gabbard's tenure had been fraught with mistakes — like her alleged unmasking of an undercover CIA operative in an X post last week — that could have been avoided if she trusted the experienced officials around her.
• That view chimes with comments Daskalakis made Thursday on Kennedy's leadership: "I am not sure who the Secretary is listening to, but it is quite certainly not to us."
• The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

The bottom line: "I've been going to these going-away parties, it feels like every week," another long-time intelligence official told Axios. "You look at what we're losing ... It's depressing."

• For Trump and his team, it seems, the sentiment is different: Good riddance.

China and India:https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/donald-trumps-biggest-dumbest-personalist

Full:https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/24/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Bringing down the hammer on financial firms that are helping Russia’s war machine has become only more complicated as the war in Ukraine has progressed. Cut off from much of the Western world, Russia has forged deeper ties with India and China, large economies that provide an economic lifeline.

“There are many companies around the world that have violated secondary sanctions threats,” said Edward Fishman, a senior research scholar at Columbia University and a former Treasury Department official. But, he added, “do you really want to strain your relationship with the U.A.E. or China?”

If sanctions were placed on major Chinese banks, international trade would slow considerably. Many American companies would be unable to pay Chinese factories for goods or receive payments for their own exports. Supply chains for everything from electronics to pharmaceuticals could freeze up, sending prices soaring for American consumers. This calculus has made Chinese banks nearly “unsanctionable,” according to Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“Sanctioning a large Chinese financial institution,” he said, “could lead to global financial instability.”

Exemptions and Evasions

There was a time when being on the sanctions list was like a financial death sentence. The list, a 3,000-page document on the Treasury Department’s website, dates back to the 1960s.

Not only are the entities barred from doing business with the United States, they cannot interact with banks that use U.S. dollars. Because the U.S. dollar is the currency most widely used for international transactions, that ban effectively cuts them off from the global financial system.

There was a time when being on the sanctions list was like a financial death sentence. The list, a 3,000-page document on the Treasury Department’s website, dates back to the 1960s.

Not only are the entities barred from doing business with the United States, they cannot interact with banks that use U.S. dollars. Because the U.S. dollar is the currency most widely used for international transactions, that ban effectively cuts them off from the global financial system.

Twenty years ago, the Office of Foreign Asset Control mostly dealt with small-time violators, handing out fines that averaged a few thousand dollars for offenses like smuggling Cuban cigars, according to an analysis of government records.

But then America’s sanctions program grew from a niche tool into a centerpiece of foreign policy. From 2002 to 2019, the average settlement grew 400-fold. Multibillion-dollar penalties against global financial institutions that facilitated sanctions evasion — even inadvertently — became normal. In 2014, the French bank BNP Paribas paid the U.S. nearly $9 billion for having processed transactions on behalf of Sudanese, Iranian and Cuban entities.

The United States can investigate banks that are suspected of violating sanctions, a process that can take years to complete. Such cases may end in steep fines, but the far greater threat is the Treasury’s power to cut a bank off from the dollar.

Sanctions were imposed on Russia’s VTB Bank in February 2022, and it was kicked off the interbank payment system called SWIFT. SWIFT is the global messaging network that enables banks worldwide to communicate and process international money transfers, and without access, VTB should have been isolated from global finance.

However, the bank, which has expanded its China presence in recent years, seems to have found at least one workaround: It advertised that account holders could transfer up to 1 million rubles, or roughly $10,000, daily into their accounts on Alipay, a giant Chinese payment platform. VTB said there would be “instant enrollment” and funds available within one business day.

This could create a back door into the global financial system. Russian customers move rubles from VTB to Alipay and, once in Alipay, those funds can flow anywhere internationally, effectively washing the rubles into the broader economy and neutralizing a major Western sanction.

Ant Group, the owner of Alipay, denied that it had any ties to VTB. After The Times sought comment from Ant and VTB, references to Alipay disappeared from VTB’s website, which now tells customers that they can transfer money to “popular Chinese wallets.” VTB did not respond to multiple requests for comment, and did not address questions about whether the bank relies on Chinese intermediaries to facilitate the transfers to Alipay.

In Moscow this past April, business was humming along. Photos from Expo Electronica, a large electronics trade show featuring more than 600 companies, showed exhibition booths displaying advanced semiconductors, with LED screens advertising the exact chips the United States has tried to block from export to Russia. A Russian Ministry of Defense delegation, led by Vasily Elistratov, head of the Kremlin’s artificial intelligence development program, walked the convention floor chatting with vendors.

Among the exhibitors was Hong Kong-based Allchips, a semiconductor dealer that had been added to the U.S. sanctions list eight months earlier. Allchips sells components used in cruise missiles that Russia fires at Ukrainian cities.

When asked how the company accepts payment, an Allchips sales representative, whose contact information was listed on the company LinkedIn page, said via WhatsApp that the company accepted payment in dollars and Chinese renminbi through Alipay, or through bank transfer to the company’s VTB account.




Deep Value:https://humbledollar.com/2025/08/how-to-beat-the-market/

• I was back at the NYSE this week.
• It's a magical place where great things happen.
• Show up, engage, do the work...

It felt good to be back on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange this week.

The building had a calmness to it – not surprising, since this was the final stretch of summer.

Sure, the calendar says summer runs until the autumnal equinox on September 22. But, on Wall Street, everyone knows Labor Day is the cutoff.

The kids are back in school, portfolio managers are back from the Hamptons, and trading desks finally get busy again.

That's just how the rhythm of the street works.

But here's what stood out: While everyone was easing into vacation mode, the market quietly delivered one of its strongest summers in four decades.

According to FactSet, the S&P 500 just logged its third-best Memorial Day–to–Labor Day run in the last 40 years.

Magic Happens at the NYSE​

The New York Stock Exchange is one of the most beautiful buildings in New York City.

As far as I'm concerned, this isn't just another landmark–it's the most important building in all of capitalism.

Think about what it represents. It has always been a place that brings people together.

I spent four or five hours there on Wednesday trading ideas and debating market trends with investors from all over the country.

Was the Uber (UBER) into the city overpriced? Probably.

Were the cocktails after the bell too expensive? Definitely.

Were the ribeyes and Bordeaux a bit outrageous? Absolutely.

But the value of those conversations will more than pay for themselves. You have to get out there. You have to listen.

Networking may be a lost art for some, but for those who still practice it, it's a massive edge.

It's Football Season​

In America, once football kicks off, summer's officially done. The weather even turned cooler this weekend.

September has a reputation as a portfolio killer–the worst month of the year for stocks historically. But this time might be different.

According to my friend Ari Wald, head of Technical Analysis at Oppenheimer, September has historically been positive on average when it starts the month above its 200-day moving average.

And that's exactly where we are heading into Tuesday.

On top of that, history shows the September-to-December period tends to run stronger under second-term presidents. Another tailwind for this year.

So, if you're going to be bearish just because it's September, you're going to need a better reason. Seasonality alone isn't it.

My time at the NYSE this week was a reminder: The market rewards those who show up, engage, and do the work.

The lost art of networking is leaving a lot of people behind. Don't let it leave you behind too.

Get out there.

​

This Week in Everybody's Wrong​

On Monday, we talked about how investors must separate what we want from what we have.

In other words, you have to play the cards you're dealt.

Indeed, the only way to make money is to trade in the market that exists.

On Tuesday, we addressed the people who love to slap labels on me depending on where we are in the market cycle.

When stocks are trending higher, I'm often called a permabull, but when stocks are trending lower, I'm often called a permabear.

Of course, I'm neither permabull nor permabear – I follow data, price, and trend...

On Wednesday, we remembered that Financials make the world go 'round.

That's based on a lot of personal experience, including the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09.

Here's why regional bank rotation is what to watch right now.

On Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, I invited my friend Matt Milner to share the secrets of private investing with you

Matt has sold several startups of his own, and he and his business partners own stakes in more than 50 private companies, including SpaceX and xAI.

We'll continue to share ideas and opportunities such as this with you as they come across our desk.

Have a great Sunday.

We'll see you Monday morning...





LOL.

What this essentially means is that the US has belatedly realised that China holds the whip hand.

With deficits already out the arse, this means inflation as the US will need to print dollars to buy commodities. Bull market in commodities anyone?




jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

• The story is disconnected from the data.
• It's happening all over the world.
• This is an opportunity for you and me.

Not too long ago, the consensus was clear: Global markets were doomed.

Tariffs were supposed to crush equities everywhere.

Recession was "right around the corner."

The narrative this spring was nothing short of apocalyptic.

And yet... the market did what it always does: It embarrassed the consensus.

Instead of collapsing, we just witnessed one of the strongest global rallies in history. If you bought into the doom-and-gloom, you missed it.

But if you stayed focused on price – on what markets were actually doing – you had a massive edge.

I'm not saying this to take a victory lap. That's not the point here.

The point is this: It will happen again.

Narratives will drift miles away from reality, investors will panic, and the market will quietly hand opportunities to those who are paying attention.

China New 10-Year Highs​

If you want leadership, look no further than China.

One of the biggest blind spots for investors last year was missing just how strong Chinese equities were.

While the U.S. market delivered an impressive 23% gain in 2024, China actually did even better: The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) was up 29%.

That relative strength was already sending a message. And here we are in 2025, with China once again outpacing the United States.

Take a look at the broader Shanghai Composite Index. This summer, it broke out to fresh 10-year highs after building a massive base:



That's not just noise – that's a structural development in one of the world's most important equity markets.

The consensus heading into Trump's landslide win was that China would be the big loser. The reality? The complete opposite.

This is what makes markets so powerful. The price action was tipping its hand all along – and anyone paying attention had the chance to catch one of the strongest global moves.

Israel Up 50% in a Year​

For the past couple of years, the headlines coming out of Israel have been overwhelmingly negative. Much of that coverage has been serious and justified. To be clear, I'm not here to debate geopolitics.

But here's the thing: While sentiment has been horrific, the market has been telling a completely different story.

The Tel Aviv 125 Index just ripped to fresh all-time highs. It's up 50% over the past 12 months – and nearly 30% year-to-date:



That's not just strength... that's dominance.

Remember, Israel was also one of the few countries to outperform the U.S. in 2024. That's what relative strength looks like.

Just like we've seen in China, Israel's stock market has been quietly leading while the narrative screamed the opposite.

This is classic market behavior: Bad headlines... bearish sentiment... bullish price action.

So ask yourself: Are you still trading the narrative, or are you paying attention to the data?

Made Europe Great Again​

They kept telling me Europe was a mess.

"Germany is in recession," is the Bronx Cheer I keep hearing.

Meanwhile, Europe's STOXX 50 Index Fund (FEZ) – basically the Dow Jones Industrial Average of Europe – just closed the month at its highest level since 2007.

That's not weakness. That's leadership.

And it's not just a broad index story. Country by country, the strength is undeniable.

Italy's stock market just ripped to new 18-year highs:



Everyone knows Italy for the food, the wine, the culture – but rarely for its stock market. Well, add that to the list now.

How about Belgium?

The Brussels BEL 20 Index just closed at new all-time highs:



Spain, Ireland, Austria, Greece... I could keep going down the list. European equities have been ripping across the board.

The point is simple: The narrative was dead wrong. And when sentiment gets that lopsided, it usually is.

That's where we come in. This is literally why we called this letter Everybody's Wrong.

My job is to find the disconnects between the story and the data, highlight them in real time, and profit from the gap.

Stocks around the world are just the latest example. And this one isn't over yet.

But here's the promise: It'll happen again.

Headlines will scream disaster, the crowd will lean the wrong way, and the charts will quietly point to opportunity.

Stay sharp,




jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions on Monday because of Labor Day in the United States, but the gaming and esports industry has our attention. This industry is undergoing a true renaissance. What was once seen as a niche corner of entertainment is now in a booming secular uptrend. Esports events fill arenas, streaming platforms attract millions of daily viewers, and gaming franchises consistently generate more revenue than Hollywood blockbusters. It has become a cultural and financial force that rivals music and film. At the center of this rise is an ecosystem of platforms, developers, and publishers that are driving both engagement and monetization to levels we have never seen before. August's monthly candlestick confirmed this strength. The VanEck Gaming and eSports ETF $ESPO, which holds many of the leaders in this industry, closed August at a new all-time high:

​

The VanEck Gaming and eSports ETF broke out of a multi-year base late last year / early this year and ripped past the 161.8% extension level like it didn't even exist. This breakout is a testament to the technical and fundamental momentum that permeates the entire space. We don't think it's going away anytime soon. We're looking at the 261.8% extension level as the next logical target for ESPO. Among all the holdings in this ETF, Roblox $RBLX stands out as the top performer. It's the largest position in ESPO, and it's producing some of the most extraordinary growth numbers in the stock market today. They aren't just a gaming company anymore... The company has grown into a social hub and a virtual economy where people interact, create, and spend real money. The latest earnings report, released on July 31, gave us a fresh look at how quickly they're scaling. Daily active users are surging:

​

*Chart courtesy of RBLX Q2'25 Investor Presentation Roblox's growth in Daily Active Users has been nothing short of extraordinary. They have now surpassed 100 million DAUs, a figure that few digital platforms in history have ever achieved. The company reported a 41% year-over-year increase in this key performance indicator, a remarkable achievement given its scale. Growth often slows as a platform becomes larger, yet they are accelerating. That acceleration signals powerful network effects and brand strength. Every new user adds more value to the ecosystem, attracting both players and developers. If DAU growth indicates the number of people coming to the platform, hours engaged show how deeply they are engaging. Here, the numbers are even more impressive:

​

*Chart courtesy of RBLX Q2'25 Investor Presentation Roblox users spent over 27 billion hours on the platform in the quarter, representing a 58% increase from the same period last year. That growth outpaces DAUs, proving that Roblox is not only adding users but also engaging them more effectively over time. The chart makes the story crystal clear. The number of hours engaged had been rising steadily, but in the last two quarters, the slope has steepened dramatically. This acceleration tells us they are winning the battle for attention, which is the most valuable currency in the digital economy. More time spent means more opportunities to monetize through Robux purchases, advertising, and creator activity. It also shows that they have become more than just a casual pastime. The platform is becoming an integral part of users’ daily routines, a virtual world where they socialize, create, and transact. Revenue continues to make new highs:

​

*Chart courtesy of RBLX Q2'25 Investor Presentation Roblox generates over $1 billion in revenue each quarter. As you can see, the year-over-year growth rate has slowed compared with previous years, which could be seen as a concern at first glance. However, that interpretation ignores how their revenue is recognized. Under GAAP rules, revenue is spread out over time as users spend their Robux. That means the revenue chart often lags behind the true demand picture. Even so, the steady climb to fresh highs shows the underlying health of the business. Roblox is scaling into billion-dollar revenue quarters while maintaining one of the fastest growth rates among large-cap companies in the gaming space. Bookings tell the real financial:

​

*Chart courtesy of RBLX Q2'25 Investor Presentation Bookings captures the value of Robux purchased upfront, without waiting for recognition in the accounting records. The key performance indicator surged to $1.44B in the most recent quarter, representing 51% year-over-year growth. That growth rate is well ahead of DAUs, proving Roblox is not only adding more users but also monetizing them more effectively. The bookings chart shows a dramatic upswing, with the most recent quarter producing the steepest jump yet. Growing at this pace indicates a rise in spend per user and increased adoption of premium experiences within the platform. It is difficult to overstate the power of this trend. Roblox is building a thriving virtual economy where users are both deeply engaged and willing to spend. The stock chart mirrors the strength of the fundamentals:

​

Roblox has completely retraced its decline from late 2021 to early 2022, and the bulls are looking to surpass the peak of the prior cycle. If and when RBLX closes above 142, the path of least resistance will decisively shift from sideways to higher for the foreseeable future. The alignment of technical strength and fundamental momentum makes Roblox one of the most compelling names in the entire market. Roblox is the hottest growth story in gaming today, and it's positioned to lead this booming industry into the future. Happy fishing

Gold prices surged to an all-time high above $3,500 per ounce on Tuesday amidst increasing bets on a September interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve and ongoing tension between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
- The bullion has now risen by more than 30% in 2025 alone, continuing its bull run that started three years ago as geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures and a weakening outlook for global trade nudged investors to go for safe-haven assets.

- With US nonfarm payrolls data this Friday potentially opening the pathway for the anticipated interest rate cut, markets are negatively assessing the prospect of the Federal Reserve potentially weakening its independence under Trump.

- Gold was also supported by the weakness of the US dollar as China’s yuan hit its strongest level in 2025 to date against the USD, with the euro also gaining 15% on the greenback since the beginning of this year.

Market Movers

- Colombia’s national oil company Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) is reportedly mulling the purchase of Canacol assets in the country, representing almost 20% of total gas supply, seeking to boost production synergies in the Magdalena Valley Basin.

- Mozambique LNG, the $25 billion liquefied gas project developed by French major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE), could see its years-long force majeure lifted this month after Rwanda agreed to station troops in Cabo Delgado province.

- Top shareholders of UK upstream firm Ithaca Energy (LON:ITH), Italy’s ENI and Israel’s Delek, sold 2% of the company’s issued share capital, after the company’s shares went up by 40% over the last month.

- Nigeria’s government signed a production sharing agreement for offshore blocks 2000 and 2001 with French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE), spanning some 775 square miles in the Niger Delta basin.

Tuesday, September 02, 2025

Speculation around OPEC+’s upcoming meeting is rife, with market consensus still anticipating a rollover of current production quotas, limiting the price volatility ahead of the weekend call. Beyond OPEC+, there have been very few notable market developments as ICE Brent continues to hover slightly above $68 per barrel, with the dearth of news caused by the US Labor Day holiday sapping the market’s risk appetite.

White House Targets Iraqi Oil Tycoon. The US Treasury Department sanctionedWaleed al-Samarra’i, an Iraqi individual who is believed to operate a fleet of vessels (owned via Marshall Islands shell firms) carrying Iranian oil, in the latest round of sanctions against Iran’s oil industry.

Russia and China Approve Power of Siberia-2. Russia’s Gazprom and China’s CNPC have signed a legally binding memorandum to construct the long-stalled Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, aiming for additional 50 bcm per year of gas supplies to China, however there’s still no agreement on pricing.

Beijing Parade Lifts Iron Ore Prices. Chinese iron ore futures rose to ¥772 per metric tonne ($108/mt) as market participants anticipate regional authorities in Tangshan’s steel hub to lift air quality controls after the country’s WWII commemoration parade is over, greatly boosting demand.

Sudan’s Oil Artery Clots After Drone Barrage. Sudan was forced to shut down its oil production sites in the Heglig basin after a series of drone strikes from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) made safe operations impossible with two impacts this week, shuttering some 30,000 b/d of output.

EU Mulls 10-Year Tax Pause on Jet and Shipping. The European Commission proposed a 10-year delay to the introduction of continent-wide taxes on CO2 emitted through aviation and shipping until at least 2035, as EU governments have been resisting any fuel carbon levies up until now.

Saudi, Iraq Halt Exports to India’s Key Refiner. Both Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) and Iraqi state oil marketer SOMO have stopped delivering term supplies of crude to India’s Nayara Energy, co-owned by Russia’s Rosneft and under EU sanctions imposed in late July, citing payment difficulties.

Equinor Comes to the Rescue. Norway’s national energy firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) agreed to pump roughly $1 billion into embattled wind developer Orsted (COP:ORSTED) as the Danish company pushes ahead with a $9.4 billion rights issue, under pressure from Trump’s anti-wind policies.

Africa’s New Oil Frontier to Auction Blocks. Kenya is planning to offer 10 exploration blocks since it adopted a new petroleum law in 2019, seeking to finally tap into its 1-billion-barrel reserves that remain underdeveloped after UK explorer Tullow Oil halted operations due to security concerns.

Brazil Wants a Spot at The IEA Table. Brazil has formally asked to become a full-fledged member of the International Energy Agency, seeking to play a stronger role in global energy affairs just as its production soared to an all-time high of 3.76 million b/d in the latest data published for June 2025.

India Powers Up to Feed Industry. As India’s manufacturing activity posted its highest rate in 17 years, the South Asian country’s power generation has been soaring in tandem with its industrial output, rising 4% year-over-year thanks to robust coal generation and nationwide solar boom.

There’s Never a Bad Timing for a French Strike. LNG import terminals across France could be impacted as the country’s largest energy industry trade union CGT called for a nationwide strike on 2 September, with further protests slated for 10 and 18 September, demanding higher wages.

Spanish Power Firms Crippled by Negative Prices. Spain has witnessed more than 500 instances of negative-price hours in January-August 2025, more than double last year’s total after solar generation has been booming on the Iberian peninsula with capacity already exceeding 20 GW.

Africa to Add New Refinery Soon. Angola’s 30,000 b/d Cabinda refinery has started its commissioning process with first runs expected this November, as the African country intends to keep more of its crude domestically and halve diesel and jet fuel imports by 2027.

The US Dollar continues to weaken, and international energy stocks are one of the groups benefiting most from it. Look at what’s happening in the global energy space. While US energy (XLE) has chopped sideways for the better part of two years, our All Star Charts International Oil & Gas Index is pressing up against new decade highs. That’s not a coincidence. It’s classic weak dollar behavior. These stocks are playing a larger role in the uptrend for international equities every day.

​

When the dollar topped back in late 2022, these trends dislocated. Since then, the international side of the ledger has been the clear leader, while American energy has struggled. And it’s not just energy. The ratio of International vs US Gold Miners tells the exact same story. Both series turned higher as the dollar rolled over. Nearly that same day:

​

International energy is knocking on the door of a fresh breakout. Gold miners are confirming that the relative strength in the commodities space remains abroad. And the greenback continues its descent. This is intermarket confirmation at its finest. Which brings me to my next point… There has been a strong relationship between the dollar and crude oil this cycle, which has weighed extra heavily on US energy stocks, helping drive the divergence shown in the first chart. In other words, the dollar’s decline isn’t just a currency story — it’s the key that could finally unlock the next leg higher for global energy and commodities. Louis just published a note with our updated Global ETF Power Rankings. This is always one of my favorite universes to explore, but it’s especially true right now, with participation spreading across international equity markets. Here’s what stood out… US stocks currently find themselves in the middle of the pack. The S&P 500 isn’t one of the weaker country indexes, but it also isn’t one of the strongest. A nice mix of countries – from Vietnam and Greece to Peru – are currently at the top of the leaderboard. This speaks to the broad participation we’re seeing overseas and the healthy blend of bullish action taking place in different regions of the world. Meanwhile, some old leaders like Argentina and India are down in the dumps, rounding out the bottom of our leaderboard. Louis highlighted India, and compared it with the other Emerging Market heavyweight in that region… which is, of course, China. ​ India is breaking down while China is breaking out. And here’s another way to view the relationship. This is a ratio chart of the two country ETFs, iShares China $FXI vs iShares India $INDY: ​ I’ve been writing about the India-to-China rotation theme for a while, and it continues to play out. Because, in my mind, this is simple. It may not be a zero-sum game between China and India, but these two countries are undoubtedly fighting for the same funds. Emerging market money managers poured out of China in recent years and parked a lot of that capital in India. It worked great for a while. But since the relative trend shifted in China’s favor last year, we’re seeing this trade unwind in a big way. And it makes sense. The money that flowed into India over the past few cycles is simply returning to its source. If and when this trend reversal completes, it will mark an important piece of confirming evidence for the new bull market in China. Remember, in strong and sustained bull runs, assets don’t just move higher on an absolute basis– they also outperform their alternatives. Based on the charts, I think we should all prepare for China to outperform over the long term. China is also working on similar reversal patterns relative to the S&P 500, Emerging Markets Index, and MSCI EAFE. No one is ready for China to be the new world leader… but that’s exactly where these trends are headed. And we’ve been positioning for it. We recently sold doubles on our Alibaba and Baidu calls. Now we’re riding these Chinese blue chips for free for the next few months. We’ve also added a number of more speculative Chinese stocks as the risk-on groups are leading over there. And we have another handful on a short list that we’re watching and ready to pounce on this week. Precious metals are hitting new highs. New highs confirm uptrends. The breakouts are real, and the opportunities are compounding. One of the first things you'll notice about my process is how much emphasis I put on multiple timeframes. I'm not a long-only investor who just stares at 20-year charts. Most of what we do here at TrendLabs is designed to capture price moves over the coming weeks and months. That's where the opportunity is. But here's the thing: You can't trade the short term responsibly without understanding the bigger picture. That long-term context – decades of price history – is what keeps you aligned with the primary trend and stops you from getting whipsawed by noise. That's why we lean so heavily on monthly charts. They give us clarity, strip away the day-to-day drama, and highlight the trends that actually matter. Asset prices trend. This much we know. And the way I learned it early in my career was simple: "Whenever in doubt, zoom out." That's exactly what the monthly charts let us do. Gold and Silver Both Hit New Highs​ Let's zoom out on the precious metals. Here are the monthly candlesticks for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). Both just hit new milestones, with GLD closing the month at all-time highs and SLV breaking out to fresh 14-year highs: The message here is simple: The trend is not down. New highs confirm uptrends. And history is clear: During uptrends, investors who are long make money. Those who sit on the sidelines – or worse, short the trend – don't make money. So what does this mean for us? It means we keep pressing our advantage. We add to what's working. Our metals positions are paying us, and we want to water those flowers, not cut them. The Biggest Base In Stocks​ I probably look at more charts in a given week than almost anyone on the planet. There are a handful of people who come close – and I know who they are, because they're close friends of mine and we trade notes constantly. I say that to make one point crystal clear: After staring at more charts than most people could imagine, I can confidently tell you this... There isn't a bigger base anywhere in global markets than the one in Newmont Corporation (NEM): This thing is colossal. Decades of ups, downs, and essentially zero net progress since the 1980s have built what I consider the single longest consolidation pattern of any major asset. And when you're talking about a bellwether for precious metals such as Newmont, that base carries enormous implications. Adding to Longs in Metals​ I'll be looking to put even more money to work in metals this month. The two open positions we have in The Divergenceportfolio are firing on all cylinders. But here's the truth: I don't think we're long enough. This is one of those environments where the trend is clear, the breakouts are real, and the opportunities are compounding. The only real question is: Do you have enough exposure, or are you going to watch this run from the sidelines? For me, that's not an option. Stay sharp,

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

1 big thing: New evidence the job market is softening

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals On the surface, the latest data on job openings, hirings and firings points to a steady-as-she-goes labor market. Beneath that surface, it shows a job market with widening cracks. Why it matters: Today's release adds to the evidence that the labor market could use some help, as the Federal Reserve weighs an interest rate cut two weeks from today. Revisions to June numbers pointed to much higher rates of firings and discharges than first reported, matching a pattern of negative revisions seen in job growth data. In July, the number of unemployed people surpassed the number of job openings for the first time in four years. Driving the news: The number of job openings fell by 176,000 in July and the rate ticked down to 4.3%, matching its lowest since mid-2020. At the height of the post-pandemic job market boom, in the spring of 2022, there were more than 2 job openings for every unemployed person. As of July, that ratio has fallen to 0.99. "This is yet another data point underscoring how this job market is frozen and it's difficult for anyone to get a job right now," wrote Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in a note. By the numbers: Other key data points in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey were of the nothing-to-see-here variety. The hiring rate was stable, as were the rates at which people voluntarily quit their jobs and were discharged or laid off. There were, however, sharp negative revisions to June numbers, particularly in layoffs and discharges. The number of job openings in June was revised down by 80,000, and the number of people who lost their jobs involuntarily that month was revised up by a whopping 192,000 from the earlier estimate. The intrigue: The July jobs report published in early August also showed huge negative revisions to payroll employment for May and June. That the pattern has repeated in JOLTS implies that employers who submit their survey responses to the Bureau of Labor Statistics promptly are doing fine, but that those who submit surveys late — and thus are only incorporated in revisions — are flashing signs of weakness. Of note: There was a particularly steep drop in the number of job openings in health care, which has been an outsized contributor to overall job creation in recent years. The job openings rate in health care and social assistance was 5.1% in July, down from 5.8% in June and 6.3% a year earlier. Between the lines: This all adds up to ammunition for monetary doves on the Fed's policy-setting committee who believe that the labor market has more underlying weakness than the headline unemployment rate — a still-low 4.2% — would suggest. What's next: Friday brings the August employment report, which takes on outsized importance at this delicate policy juncture. Will it affirm the weak job growth reported for June and July or revise it away? Key inflation data then arrives next week, in advance of the Fed meeting.

There were no S&P 500 earnings reactions on Tuesday, but Canadian stocks continue to capture our attention. In a Daily Beat column last week, we discussed the Canadian financials' strong performance following their earnings reports. The Big 5 banks all surged higher together, and their breakouts underscored a powerful message about the health of Canada’s market leadership. Now the spotlight is shifting from financials to energy. Canadian energy stocks are catching fire. The setups that have been building for years are finally resolving higher, and the timing could not be better. Investors are rotating into oil and gas, sparking major breakouts in some of the biggest names. One that has our attention is Enbridge $ENB. Enbridge is a $105B Canadian pipeline operator that has quietly been transforming its business model. In its most recent earnings report, the company highlighted a backlog of accretive projects tied to powering data centers. The most notable project is one with Meta Platforms $META in San Antonio, Texas, where they are helping to supply the infrastructure behind Meta’s growing AI-driven data center operations. This is no longer just a pipeline story. It's positioning itself as an AI energy stock. The charts don't lie:

​

Enbridge is decisively resolving a textbook decade-long bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern. It's one of the cleanest base breakouts in the market. There aren't many energy stocks that look this good. So long as ENB holds above 47, the path of least resistance is higher for the foreseeable future. Their last earnings report is fueling this breakout:

​

After spending June and July consolidating, Enbridge surged higher in early August on a gap-and-go move sparked by its last earnings report. Buyers have followed through ever since, confirming the initial post-earnings move. The market is telling us loud and clear that it loved what this company said in its last quarterly readout. We're listening, Mr. Market. Canada is not just about banks... Energy stocks are joining the leadership ranks, and Enbridge is leading the charge. A decade-long base is resolving higher, supported by one of the most powerful secular growth themes in the world. Happy Hump Day

August is in the books and there are some fresh trends brewing beneath the surface. The tech and growth trade led the market off the April lows, but evidence continues to suggest this theme is cooling. New leadership is emerging from pro-cyclical areas such as financials, industrials and small caps. We run a variety of scans at the end of each month to help us analyze what happened… and more importantly, what’s likely to happen next. We figure we might as well share some of that with our readers, so here it is. These are the Top Stocks for the Month of August.

​

This scan offers a quick and dirty look at the best and most consistent outperformers during the calendar month. We’re tracking the frequency of outperformance in the number of days column (how many days did the stock beat the average during the month), and the magnitude of outperformance in the next one. The performance vs SPY is simply the margin of outperformance, or alpha, relative to the S&P 500. Then this is expressed with a letter grade in the last column. So, how often did this stock beat the market in the past month… and by how much? It’s really that simple. This month’s list is packed with solid leadership names and actionable setups. Let’s take a look at our favorites. Our first setup this month is an $82B industrial conglomerate. This is 3M Co. $MMM:

​

3M Co is putting the finishing touches on a bearish-to-bullish reversal base. Price is currently pressing against a key retracement level around 161. On a relative basis, MMM has bottomed vs the broader market after a prolonged period of underperformance. We're buyers of a breakout on strength above 161, targeting the all-time highs near 217. Our other setup is the $235B capital markets powerhouse, Morgan Stanley $MS:

​

Morgan Stanley is breaking out above a key extension level, one that capped its advance earlier this year. Over longer timeframes, this breakout comes in the context of a much larger structural base that dates back to the Great Financial Crisis. On a relative basis, MS is completing a reversal vs the broader market, setting a clean series of higher highs and higher lows. This suggests more outperformance is coming over longer timeframes. As long as MS remains above 144, we're buyers targeting 229. I have an overweight position on Morgan Stanley and friends right now. The biggest banks in the U.S. have been some of the best stocks. Around the world, financials are the primary leadership group. We’ve been buying calls and selling doubles in Citigroup and Bank of America all summer in Breakout Multiplier. And we’re looking to add even more exposure to this group soon.

Ok so the next article is a really long read.

Full:https://tscsw.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-built-to-fail




jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The battle over the future of the Fed played out in August between the White House and the central bank's leaders, and in the courts. Now, it's the U.S. Senate's turn. Why it matters: Today's confirmation hearing for Miran, President Trump's nominee to a vacant Fed governor slot, is the first formal opportunity for lawmakers to weigh in on a momentous series of developments in America's monetary system. Miran has advocated changes that would put the Fed more squarely under the president's control. His confirmation process is taking place with breakneck speed as Republicans try to install him before a Fed policy meeting in less than two weeks. It also comes as the president tries to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook for mortgage irregularities, the legality of which is pending in federal court. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that the Justice Department has launched a criminal case against her, issuing subpoenas and convening grand juries, citing sources familiar. The big picture: While the central bank independence clash is often framed as a battle between Trump and the Fed, it is, in a more profound sense, about the relative power of the president and Congress. The Federal Reserve Act, passed by Congress more than a century ago, established a system of lengthy, staggered terms for Fed governors and specified that they can only be fired for cause. Driving the news: Republican senators — including those who have spoken of the importance of central bank independence in the past — endorsed Miran for the governor slot, which expires at the end of January. Democrats were in lockstep opposed to Miran's confirmation. Miran embraced the language of central bank independence, notwithstanding his previous writings arguing for clarifying that Fed board members "serve at the will of the U.S. president." What they're saying: "I couldn't be more in agreement that independence of the central bank is of paramount importance for the economy," Miran told Senate Banking Committee chair Tim Scott. "If I'm confirmed to this role, I will act independently ... based on my own personal analysis of economic data," Miran said, and act on "my judgment of the best economic policy possible." The other side: "We cannot ignore the elephant in the room, and that is that President Trump has launched an all-out assault on the independence of the Federal Reserve," said top Democrat Elizabeth Warren. She challenged Miran on whether he agreed with Trump's assertions that jobs data was rigged to try to tilt the election against him. Miran ducked the question, emphasizing that the quality of economic data has been in long-term decline. Miran said he will take an unpaid leave of absence from the White House if confirmed to the Fed term that expires in January. "That's ridiculous," said Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), noting that it means he would remain an employee answering to the president while serving on the Fed Board. The intrigue: Some Republicans stressed the need for Fed independence as well. "You need to call 'em like you see 'em," Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said, before asking for Miran's commitment to ignore "all the rhetoric from politicians." "We need a monetary plan that was put together by something other than vodka and darts, and that's what we had the Federal Reserve for," he added. Between the lines: It looks like Miran's assurances about Fed independence will be enough to keep Republican senators onside for his confirmation. What happens next with Cook's role on the Fed, and the slot she occupies, is murkier.

2. Private hiring slows again

Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios

The private sector added just 54,000 jobs last month, ADP said this morning — raising concerns about this summer's stall-pace hiring. Why it matters: ADP said it was the fifth straight month of hiring declining among health care and education businesses — sectors once responsible for the bulk of hiring. Now that has slowed, exposing weaker conditions in the labor market. By the numbers: The soft hiring in August came after the private sector added 106,000 jobs the previous month. Official government data, however, showed much weaker jobs growth, with revisions to prior months' data that suggested hiring had slowed significantly. What they're saying: "We're seeing employers having to navigate a lot of economic uncertainty, an aging workforce — which will pop up as labor shortages in some industries — and the effects of new AI technology that is being incorporated," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told reporters this morning. The hiring bright spots: leisure and hospitality, and construction. The manufacturing sector shed 7,000 jobs this month, in line with anecdotes that businesses are under pressure from tariffs. But Richardson said that year to date, the sector "has been performing much better than the previous two years when it was in a virtual recession." The intrigue: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had famously called out education, health care and other "government-adjacent" industries for propping up strong jobs growth in the Biden era — a result, he said, of strong government spending. Education and health care services shed 12,000 jobs last month, after losing a whopping 38,000 positions the previous month. What to watch: The government jobs report, out tomorrow at 8:30am ET, is expected to show just 75,000 jobs added in August — roughly matching those in July.

• Nobody knows anything, especially about the future.
• Price action is the only truth; price is the only thing that pays.
• They're lying to you about stocks, and it's still a bull market.

I don't know what the market's going to do next.

But that's fine - because you don't either. Nobody does, no matter how many conspiracy theories or bold predictions get thrown around.

This is one of the most important lessons in investing: If you can't accept that you don't know the future, you'll never make any money.

I don't put my faith in analysts, economists, or even myself.

What I do trust is the collective wisdom of the market itself. Price action is the truth.

Everything else is just noise.

800 Guesses​

In 1906, at a country fair in England, 800 people entered a contest to guess the weight of an ox.

Out of those 800 people, not one person guessed the weight correctly.

But the average of all 800 guesses? 1,197 pounds. Just one pound off from the Ox's actual weight, 1,198 pounds.

Find Scorpion​

In May of 1968, the Navy submarine Scorpion went missing.

The only information the Navy had on its whereabouts came from the final radio signal transmitted from the sub.

Cartographers mapped a 20-mile circle in the middle of the North Atlantic as a starting point for the search.

Submerged in thousands of feet of water, locating the vessel seemed like an impossible task.

Instead of consulting "search and rescue experts" to find Scorpion, the Navy assembled a team with a wide range of knowledge and expertise to guess where the submarine could be.

Yes, that's right, literally just "guess."

Not one person independently identified the actual location of the Scorpion.

But the average of the group's guesses? Just 220 yards away from the wreckage.

Wisdom of Crowds​

I pulled these two stories from the book "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki.

Matt Cerminaro inspired today's note. He's known as "Chart Kid Matt" on The Compound & Friends podcast hosted by my friends over at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

Matt makes a great point in his recent note that the market works in the same way. And he makes a great list:

Every trade reflects an opinion.

Every sale reflects a risk tolerance.

Every allocation reflects a time horizon.

Aggregate millions of these diverse, independent opinions and voila: a price is set.

You don't have to like the price.

You don't have to agree with the price.

But, you'd be foolish not to respect the price.

As Matt concludes, "When the price of an asset doesn't make sense to me, I concede that the market knows something I don't."

What We Do Know​

There's one thing we do know about markets: Asset prices trend.

The collective wisdom of the crowd pushes prices in one direction, and, more often than not, that direction persists. Trends are far more likely to continue than to suddenly reverse on a dime.

Rather than pretend to be experts in the geopolitics of the Middle East or to understand what's in the minds of monetary policymakers or to know what earnings might look like for the tech stock du jour, it's much easier to just respect the price trend.

The collective wisdom of the crowds in markets is much more useful than any individual's opinion - just like guessing the weight of an Ox or in the search for Scorpion.

The NYSE Composite Index consists of all the stocks that trade on the world's most important stock exchange, the New York Stock Exchange.

This index just closed the month at its highest levels ever:



The collective wisdom of the crowds suggests stocks as an asset class are in the midst of a healthy bull market.

That's despite any and all scary warnings of recession, a government debt crisis, World War III, or any other rumors you'll find in glorified gossip columns parading as business journalism.

Remember how many times they told you it was only seven stocks driving the market? They lied to you.

Here is the S&P 500, on an equal-weight basis, closing August at the highest levels in its entire history:



Not only is it not "just seven stocks." But this index essentially eliminates all seven of those stocks, or any seven stocks for that matter, from the equation altogether.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) treats all of them the same.

From Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) all the way down to Eastman Chemical (EMN) and Carmax (KMX), RSP weights all 500-plus stocks in the S&P 500 regardless of market capitalization.

The fact that the index is at the highest level ever is the ultimate arbiter here that it is in fact NOT just seven stocks.

Mathematically - obviously - it can't be.

They're all wrong.






From yesterday's BTC article:


MSTR







Time Bomb.


jog on
duc

 

[peter2]

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.


Good to see Nasdaq applying some commonsense.

 

[ducati916]

This summer marked a turning point for the U.S. economy: Hiring screeched to a halt in recent months, ending a streak of orderly cooling. Why it matters: The days of boom-like jobs numbers appear firmly in the past. Employers are pulling back as they adjust to the Trump economy, one that features heightened uncertainty, costlier foreign goods and a diminished labor supply amid immigration crackdowns. What they're saying: "Whatever the underlying cause — a scarcity of available workers, a more cautious hiring stance, lingering questions about the near-term impact of tariffs — labor conditions have cooled considerably in recent months," Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, wrote in a note. Driving the news: Today's jobs data confirmed that the weak hiring that became clear in last month's report was no head-fake. The economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, with health care among the few sectors with increasing employment. The intrigue: Once again, the real stunner came in the revisions, which showed the economy's 53-month-long streak of jobs growth ended in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that employers shed 13,000 jobs in June — the first employment contraction since December 2020. It was a downward revision from the data that showed a gain of roughly as many jobs. With those revisions, the economy has added an average of 29,000 jobs over the past three months — a stall-speed pace compared to the three-month average of 111,000 in March. Zoom in: The federal workforce continued to shrink, with another 15,000 jobs lost. Since January, employment has decreased by roughly 97,000 workers. That might be an undercount: The BLS warns that federal workers on paid leave or receiving severance might still be considered employed in its survey. Manufacturing, touted by the Trump administration as the potential winner of its trade policy, shed 12,000 jobs in August. The sector has 78,000 fewer employees compared to the same period a year ago. The big picture: The huge debate among economic policymakers is why hiring is so lackluster — less demand for staff, less supply of them (or a combination of both). Harsher immigration policy is contributing to a huge shift in population trends. That makes it difficult to know how many workers the economy needs to add to keep the unemployment rate steady. For that reason, Fed chair Powell says he is watching the unemployment rate more closely. It edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. The increase was a combination of factors, largely as workers entered the labor force for the first time since April — but there were also more unemployed Americans. Of those who are unemployed, roughly 26% have been jobless for six months or longer — the largest share since February 2022 and a sign that finding work is getting increasingly difficult. The other side: National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, in a Fox News appearance, tried to blame the weak jobs numbers on the BLS. "One of the things we know is that they've been really, at BLS, struggling with bad response rates," Hassett said. "We expect this number will be revised up; that's been the pattern over and over," said Hassett, referencing what he said was recent Goldman Sachs research showing a pattern of August revisions.

The worse-than-expected jobs report gives the Fed the go-ahead to slash interest rates at its Sept. 16-17 policy meeting. It might also clear the way for cuts in October and December. Why it matters: For now, Fed officials see the weakening labor market as the bigger risk to the economy — not inflation. Financial markets bet that the trend will continue. The odds of three rate cuts by year's end skyrocketed after the weak job numbers. The likelihood of such was 40% yesterday, per the CME FedWatch tool, but soared to 80% today. What they're saying: That would align with the expectation outlined by Fed governor Christopher Waller — who is widely considered to be one of Trump's possible picks to succeed Powell — earlier this week. "You want to get ahead of having the labor market go down, because usually when [the] labor market turns bad, it turns bad fast," Waller told CNBC this week, adding that he anticipates more rate cuts over the next three to six months. Waller is in the camp of officials who believe tariff-related price increases will be a one-time phenomenon and won't result in persistently higher inflation. (The Consumer Price Index for August will be released next Thursday.) What to watch: Waller warned that tariffs will lead to slower growth this year. "Tariffs are taxes, and taxes are never typically good for growth," Waller said.

Friday, September 5, 2025

OPEC+ Flirts with Unwinding Ahead of Sunday Meeting. According to media reports, OPEC+ will consider unwinding the second layer of its voluntary cuts - totalling 1.65 million b/d - more than a year ahead of schedule at its upcoming meeting on Sunday, citing the need to regain market share.

US Biofuels Imports Tanks as Import Credits Vanish. US imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel collapsed in the first half of 2025 after the scrapping of tax credits for imported biofuels eliminated any business case for it, with only 7,000 b/d flowing in (equivalent to one-tenth of last year’s volumes).

Dangote’s Leaking Gasoline Engine Stalls. A catalyst leak at the residue fluid catalytic cracking unit of Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery might halt gasoline production for 2-3 months, depriving the country of 200,000 b/d output and sending European gasoline cracks to their highest since May 2024

Denmark’s Wind Giant Picks a Fight with Trump. Danish offshore wind developer Orsted (COP:ORSTED), teaming up with the states of Rhode Island and Connecticut, sued the Trump administration for the forced halt of its nearly finished Revolution Wind project, deeming it illegal.

Conoco Trims Headcount as Strategy Shifts Gear. US oil major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) will lay off 20–25% of its global workforce by the end of this year, affecting up to 3,250 employees as part of a broad restructuring, citing a rise in controllable costs to $13/barrel now from $11/barrel in 2021.

Iraq Eyes Storage Beyond the Hormuz. Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO has signed a storage deal with Oman’s OQ to build a crude storage tank farm at the latter’s port of Ras Markaz with an initial capacity of 10 million barrels, seeking to de-risk some of its oil exports from tensions in the Arab Gulf.

Trump Takes a Move Against Shipping Fuels. The US State Department has been reaching out to other countries to reject the United Nations’ IMO ‘Net Zero Framework’, imposing a fee on ships that breach global emissions standards, or otherwise face tariffs, visa restrictions and additional port levies.

Exxon Sees No Future for Europe’s Chemicals. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is reportedly seeking to divest its European chemical plants in the UK and Belgium for up to $1 billion, whilst simultaneously assessing the possibility of shutting them down for good in case buying interest is weak.

Italy Seeks Supply Guarantees from Azerbaijan. The Italian government has been in talks with Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR, reportedly closing in on a deal to buy privately owned local refiner IP for approximately $3 billion, demanding guarantees for security of supply and jobs.

Guyana to Launch New Auction in 2026. The government of Guyana is planning to launch its next offshore licensing round in early 2026, postponing it to after the country’s general elections wrap up this month, as winners of the previous 2022 auction are still to be awarded their respective blocks.

Korea Delays Key Exploration Well. South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced that its 2026 budget does not contain any provisions for the Blue Whale deepwater project in the Ulleung Basin, derailing the country’s biggest hope for a first-ever commercial oil discovery.

Russia Boosts China Oil Export Options. Russia’s state oil company Rosneft (MOEX:ROSN) agreed to supply an additional 2.5 million tonnes per year (50,000 b/d) of crude to China through Kazakhstan, over and above the 200,000 b/d it already does under a 10-year term contract re-signed in 2022.

Japan’s Top Copper Smelter to Cut Capacity. Japan’s leading copper smelter JX Advanced Metals (TYO:5016) mulls curbing production by tends of thousands of metric tonnes this year and will unveil a roadmap to reduce smelting capacity by March 2026, as tumbling treatment fees have eroded margins.

• Stocks are way up but sentiment is way down.
• We love this kind of disconnect.
• When everybody's wrong, we profit.

With the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Dow, the NYSE Composite - and plenty of other indexes around the world - pushing to fresh all-time highs week after week, you'd think investor sentiment would be improving, right?

Take a second and check yourself: Has your outlook on stocks actually gotten more bullish since the start of the year?

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) asked its members that exact same question this week. (I added the part about all the all-time highs, because, oddly enough, they left that out.)

The results were stunning: Only 15% of members said they've become more bullish.

Meanwhile, roughly two-thirds said they've actually grown more cautious - or flat-out bearish.

Two-thirds! While markets are ripping to record highs...

Sentiment Data This Week​

Here's what the poll looks like with the responses.

This screenshot comes directly from the AAII Sentiment Survey page that they post on their website every Thursday.



I couldn't believe it when I saw these responses, especially considering the historic year stocks are currently having.

Meanwhile, each week AAII asks the big question, which has made this survey such a staple over the years: Do you think the stock market will be higher, lower, or about the same over the next six months?

And here's the kicker: This marks the fifth straight week where more respondents admitted to being bearish than bullish.



Five weeks in a row. More bears than bulls.

How does that even happen? Are we all looking at the same market?

For me, this disconnect only makes sense once you put it into the broader context of the noise out there.

Headlines, narratives, and Twitter hot-takes are pounding investors with fear, even while the data - the price action - keeps telling a completely different story.

Signs of a Top Everywhere​

One theme I keep noticing is market professionals swearing they "see signs of a top everywhere."

I hear it so often now that I can't help but wonder: Are these folks looking at their charts upside down?

Because here's what I see - and, trust me, I probably look at more charts in a week than just about anyone on the planet - I see bottoms, not tops.

Take a look at these three charts. These aren't obscure tickers or niche indexes - they're arguably three of the most important stock market benchmarks in the world.

So let me ask you: Do these look like "signs of a top"? Or do they look like massive, powerful bases breaking higher?



You can see it in the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index (IWM), coiling for a massive multi-year breakout.

You can see it in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT), which we covered earlier this week.

And you can see it internationally, with the All Country World Index ex-U.S. (ACWX) already breaking out to new all-time highs.

Do those look like "signs of a top" to you? Or do they look like the foundations of a much bigger move higher?

That's the funny thing about sentiment right now. Two-thirds of investors in the AAII survey say they've grown more cautious or bearish this year, despite record highs across the major indexes. Five straight weeks of more bears than bulls - while the market itself keeps ripping.

To me, that's not a warning. That's an opportunity.

I love when people are this wrong. It means the path higher is being fueled by skepticism. It means uptrends still have plenty of doubters to prove wrong.

As Billionaire Investor Charlie Munger once put it: "If people weren't wrong so often, we wouldn't be so rich."

Exactly.

He was explaining that his and Warren Buffett's success came from their ability to capitalize on market inefficiencies created by other investors' widespread errors in judgment.

That's the whole philosophy behind this note. When everybody's wrong, we don't panic - we profit.

And, right now, it looks like everybody's wrong again.

Stay sharp,

​

​ Here are the latest earnings stats from the S&P 500

​

​ ​

​

​ *Click the image to enlarge it After reporting a double beat, the $30B cloud provider, Hewlett Packard Enterprise $HPE, rallied 1.5%, but had a slightly negative reaction score. They posted revenues of $9.14B, versus the expected $8.84B, and earnings per share of $0.44, versus the expected $0.42. Despite beating headline expectations, the $233B software giant, Salesforce $CRM, had a -3.73 reaction score. Their report showed revenues of $10.24B, versus the expected $10.14B, and earnings per share of $2.91, versus the expected $2.78. Now let's dive into the fundamentals and technicals

​

​ HPE has been rewarded for 7 of its last 10 earnings reports

​

​ ​

​

​ Hewlett Packard Enterprise rallied 1.5% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:

​

​ After announcing the acquisition of Juniper Networks in January 2024, the deal was finally closed in July of this year. This came after months of battling the U.S. Department of Justice over an antitrust lawsuit. This led to a record quarter, with revenues reaching $9B for the first time, growing nearly 20% year-over-year. Annualized recurring revenue (a key performance indicator for the company) is growing at an astonishing 75% year-over-year as the AI as-a-service business is booming. In addition to the great quarter, the management team increased its forward guidance.

​

​ The reaction to this news was extremely positive at the opening bell on Thursday, but sellers stepped in and drove the price lower for the rest of the session. This came as no surprise to us, as we're technical analysts fluent in Fibonacci analysis. The price found resistance at the 161.8% extension, almost to the very penny. Despite the intraday reversal, we think this name is about to break out. Its AI business is booming, and the market is consistently rewarding the stock when the company reports earnings. Additionally, the acquisition of Juniper Networks, an all-cash deal worth nearly half of Hewlett Packard Enterprise's market capitalization (HUGE), has been met with a warm welcome from the market. If and when HPE closes above 24, the path of least resistance will shift decisively from sideways to higher for the foreseeable future.

​

​ CRM suffered its 3rd consecutive negative earnings reaction

​

​ ​

​

​ Salesforce fell 4.9% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:

​

​ The total top-line increased by 10% year-over-year, driven by 120% growth in AI annual recurring revenue over the same timeframe. Since the launch late last year, the company's autonomous AI agent platform, Agentforce, has resulted in over 12,500 deals. Building on the strong quarter, the management team also raised its forward guidance.

​

​ As we predicted in the last Weekly Beat column, the stock failed to rally after a double beat. This is consistent with what we've seen over the past two quarters. The company is aggressively expanding its AI business with Agentforce and the pending acquisitions of Informatica for $8B and Regrello for $ 900M. Despite this effort, the market is punishing the shareholders. Whatever they're doing, just isn't working... After a strong bull run off the late 2022 low, the stock has carved out a massive distribution pattern. It's one bad day away from breaking down. On a relative basis, the bears have already taken control, printing fresh multi-year lows versus the broader market. This supports new lows in absolute terms. If and when CRM closes below 226, the path of least resistance will shift decisively from sideways to lower for the foreseeable future.

These days, we trade gold as a commodity. But centuries ago, we used to trade commodities priced in gold. For this reason, among others, we like to think of Gold as more than a commodity or currency. Indeed, it’s a little bit of both… But it is really its own animal. And this cycle, it has been dominating all asset classes —commodities, bonds, and even stocks. And this is the case all across the world, in nearly every currency. After four months of grinding sideways, gold is resolving higher against every major fiat — USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD. This isn’t just strength against the dollar. This is strength against money itself. It’s breaking out everywhere:

​

Unlike most currency breakouts, this isn’t being driven by weakness in the Greenback. This rally is all about strength in gold. It’s structural. It’s global. And it is spreading to other precious metals, such as silver, which hit its highest level since 2011 today. We’ve seen this movie before. In strong Dollar environments, gold often broke out versus global currencies before the dollar. This time, the script flipped: gold led against USD first, miners across the cap scale followed, and now we’re getting confirmation as the rest of the major currencies roll over to the yellow metal. The more universal the breakout, the more durable the trend. The message is clear: demand for gold isn’t isolated. It’s broad, it’s persistent, and it’s not slowing down yet. The path of least resistance is higher. We want to be long gold — and long the miners that lead and follow. On August 19th, Steven Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management disclosed a new 5.50% passive stake in Kodiak Sciences $KOD, according to a 13G filing. Cohen, respected as one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time, has built a reputation for sharp stock-picking over the years. However, he has also gained notoriety for other reasons, such as his showdown with securities regulators and the DOJ many years ago. Cohen’s SAC Capital was hit with the largest insider trading fine in market history as part of a politically motivated anti-hedge fund crusade in 2012. I remember it well because I was there. I booked the journal entry and oversaw the wires. I believe there is a heightened culture of flying under the radar, adhering to the rules, and simply staying out of regulators' crosshairs as a result of this experience. And don’t get me wrong, this is something many hedge funds strive for. Keeping a low profile is considered best practice in the industry. I just think it’s as true at Point72 as anywhere. For this reason, when Cohen shows up with an insider filing, the market tends to pay extra attention… and so do we. These hedge fund titans don’t want to reveal their hand and subject themselves to regulatory scrutiny unless absolutely necessary. They’d often rather take a smaller stake and skirt filing requirements. And that way, when we do get the filings, we know it speaks to serious conviction. That’s what’s going on with Point72 and Kodiak Sciences $KOD right now. After suffering a brutal collapse in February 2022, Kodiak has spent years working on a classic bottoming process, forming a long-term base. Now, price is pressing up against a key resistance zone at the upper bounds of this textbook reversal pattern. ​ This is the same place where overhead supply has repeatedly stifled rallies in recent years. This level becomes even more critical when you consider the massive volume pocket just north of it. I really like the fact that Point72 initiated its stake right here at the top of this base. Buyers have already been working on absorbing the supply here for years– having a big institution on board can only help demand win out. Maybe they add more, maybe not. But the smart money is in and betting on a breakout. If and when it happens, we want to be in too. Price tends to cut through these volume pockets like a knife through warm butter. Memory gaps can lead to parabolic advances, and I think KOD could be in for one soon.

So this was highlighted yesterday and today, sell-off.



The UST is definitely not an inflation hedge. LOL.


So today:



Blew right through.



As I write this post, this is where we are.


*Edit

So the UE data sucks balls.

The rate cut looks as if it is already priced in.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Every weekend, I dig into our insider activity tracker looking for the biggest conviction buys — and this week did not disappoint. Here’s the most notable activity:

First up, Freedom Holding Corp $FRHC, where Chairman of the Board Sergey Lukyanov bought 5,725 shares, worth just under $1 million. Always worth noting when the chair is stepping up with their own money. An insider also reported a purchase of roughly $1 million worth of stock in industrial company, Huntington Ingalls $HII. I really like the chart and growth story for this one. I’m long. Next, Resideo Technologies $REZI. CD&R Investment Associates just dropped another $13.7 million into the stock. This hedge fund has been buying week after week, steadily increasing their stake to 8.92%. Over in software, Bill Holdings $BILL saw Starboard Value LP disclose an 8.50% activist stake. Clearly, these guys are confident they can help turn things around for the payments software provider. There’s likely to be a board fight here in the future. Meanwhile, Hyatt Hotels $H got a bump from Principal Global Investors, who boosted their passive stake from 8.67% to 10.40%. Regional banks also showed up on our list. First Busey Corp $BUSE saw a filing from its President, who reported a $550,000 purchase. And finally — the political filings. Congressman Cleo Fields reported large purchases in NVIDIA $NVDA and Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM, totaling more than $2.5 million combined. The size here is unusual compared to most political trades we see, and the focus is squarely on big tech and semiconductors.

What happened last week

Monday: After reporting a double beat, Autodesk $ADSK rallied over 9% its best earnings reaction in thirteen quarters. Free cash flow for the quarter was $451M, up an astounding 122% year-over-year. The $82B computer hardware giant, Dell Technologies $DELL, beat headline expectations but fell nearly 9%. This was the fourth consecutive negative earnings reaction, one of the longest beatdown streaks in the S&P 500.

Tuesday: There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions to cover, so we highlighted the Gaming & eSports ETF $ESPO. This fund continues to print fresh all-time highs, driven by off-the-charts fundamental growth in its largest holding. The largest weight in ESPO is Roblox $RBLX, which is flirting with the resolution of a massive accumulation pattern. Supporting the technicals are new highs across the board in their key performance indicators.

Wednesday: There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions to cover, but North of the border, Canada's energy giants are ripping. Enbridge is a $105B Canadian pipeline operator that has quietly been transforming its business model. It's now an AI stock, and the market is rewarding it with fresh 10-year highs.

Thursday: After reporting mixed results, the $10B packaged foods producer, Campbell's $CPB, rallied nearly 8% for its best earnings reaction since 2020. The market had priced in much worse results, and when the company released less bad news, the bulls took control. The $21B discount store chain, Dollar Tree $DLTR, posted a double beat and suffered its second consecutive negative earnings reaction. This was a shockingly terrible earnings reaction from a company that reported what seemed to be good numbers.

Friday: After beating the market's expectations, the $30B cloud provider, Hewlett Packard Enterprise $HPE, rallied 1.5% for its seventh positive earnings reaction in the last ten quarters. Annualized recurring revenue (a key performance indicator for the company) is growing at an impressive 75% year-over-year as the AI-as-a-service business continues to boom. Finally, the $233B software giant, Salesforce $CRM, beat its headline expectations and the market hated it. Despite 120% year-over-year growth in AI annual recurring revenue, the stock has been punished for three consecutive earnings reports.

What's happening next week

​

Next week, we'll be focusing on the mega-cap tech stocks Oracle $ORCL and Adobe $ADBE. Additionally, we'll be monitoring the homebuilders, as the second-largest name in the industry, Lennar $LEN, which is scheduled to report. Beyond those, we’ll also be watching: The secular gas station leader, Casey's General Stores $CASY. America's largest pure-play grocery store, Kroger $KR. And the software infrastructure giant, Synopsys $SNPS. In addition, we'll hear from several small-cap stocks, which appear poised to skyrocket as the Russell 2000 $IWM continues to make new highs. It's set to be another eventful week, so there will be plenty to cover in The Daily Beat. Now, let’s dig into the setups we'll be monitoring closest next week.

Here's the setup in ORCL ahead of Tuesday's earnings report

​

Oracle is expected to post $15.04B in revenue and EPS of $1.48 after Tuesday's closing bell. Heading into the report, the price is consolidating after rallying 120% in 80 trading sessions. With the bulls firmly in control of the primary trend, we want to bet on this being a "not a top" pattern. This has been one of the biggest AI winners since the low in 2022, gaining over $500B in market capitalization. So long as the bulls hold the line at 218, the path of least resistance is likely to remain higher for the foreseeable future.

Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for ORCL

​

Over the past three years, Oracle has consistently missed Wall Street's top-line expectations, but shareholders have been rewarded for it. The stock has had some of its best earnings reactions ever this cycle, rallying over 13% multiple times. This includes last quarter's post-earnings ripper, which was a textbook gap-n-go. The bottom line is that this stock has tremendous power in the new AI Revolution, and the market loves what they're doing. We expect another blockbuster quarter and a positive reaction next week.

Here's the setup in ADBE ahead of Thursday's earnings report

​

Adobe is projected to report $5.92B in revenue and EPS of $5.19 after Thursday's closing bell. Technically, the stock is carving out a textbook multi-year distribution pattern. A close below 330 would shift the path of least resistance from sideways to lower for the foreseeable future. Many of its old-school software peers, such as Salesforce $CRM, have shown similar weakness. This supports an eventual resolution of this massive top. Thursday's report could be the catalyst for the bears to take control of this name decisively.

Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for ADBE

​

As you can see, seven of Adobe's last eight earnings events have been beat/beat/drops. This negative fundamental backdrop supports the negative technicals. In its multiple decades as a publicly traded stock, the market has never punished shareholders so consistently for Mr. Market is telling us loud and clear that this company is doing something wrong. With the technicals confirming the negative fundamental outlook, we expect the market to punish ADBE for its earnings report after the closing bell on Thursday.

Here's the setup in LEN ahead of Thursday's earnings report

​

Lennar is expected to report $8.97B in revenue and EPS of $2.10 after Thursday's closing bell. Heading into the event, the price is finding resistance at a shelf of former highs. Despite a significant rally in the S&P Homebuilders ETF $XHB, this name has continued to underperform. Will that change after this report? Maybe, but we doubt it. Either way, the line in the sand is clear. If LEN gaps above 144, we'll change our tone. Until then, the path of least resistance remains sideways.

Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for LEN

​

Over the past three years, Lennar has been at the top of the leaderboard for worst post-earnings mover. The market has slammed the stock after eight consecutive earnings reports. As you can see, over the past year, there has been a significant decrease in bottom-line growth, which supports the negative fundamental and technical outlook. This company is doing something wrong, and the bears are capitalizing on it. We expect another beatdown for LEN shareholders following Thursday's earnings event.

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. This is a classic leadership scan. We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. This week’s standout is Healthcare, which climbed three spots to take the top position in our sector rankings.

​

Participation is beginning to broaden as the Healthcare Sector SPDR $XLV is on the cusp of resolving higher from a short-term base. Here’s a look at our overall industry rankings, which show Biotechnology breaking into the top 20.

​

When Biotech is working, the industry is always home to some of the biggest winners. And right now, this is the strongest subgroup in Healthcare, the right place to be fishing to express a bullish thesis on the sector. Below are the Top 10 names in the Biotechnology subsector, ranked by relative strength.

​

This week’s spotlight stock is Nuvation Bio $NUVB:

​

NUVB is on the verge of completing a bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern as price presses up against the upper bounds of its base, jumping 30% this week. Adding fuel to the move, the stock has reclaimed the VWAP anchored to its IPO — meaning the average investor is finally back in the green and buyers are in control for the first time ever. With short interest near 30% and more than eleven days to cover, the stage is set for a powerful squeeze. This is a clean trend reversal setup with risk/reward skewed firmly to the upside. If and when price breaks above 4, we like it long with an initial target of 7.60. Our secondary objective is 15 over longer timeframes.

• Cattle are stampeding higher in 2025.
• Hedgers are piling into record short positions as prices go parabolic.
• The setup looks eerily similar to the legendary 1979 bull run.

I'm a kid from Kansas. Born and raised in a small town where farming drives the local economy.

My family first came here in the 1800s, when the Homestead Act opened up the Great Plains to anyone bold enough to stake a claim. All you had to do was build a house, plow the soil, and stick it out for five years. In return, the government handed you 160 acres of land to call your own.

For millions of Americans, that promise changed everything. For my family, it was the beginning of a legacy.

My people came from Europe with little more than grit and determination. They settled in Kansas, broke the hard ground with mule-drawn plows, and planted the first crops.

Over time, that land passed from one generation to the next. Today, my family is still here, working the same soil, raising cattle on the same grass, and drawing oil from the same prairie.

We grow the typical Kansas commodities: wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and alfalfa.

Then there are the cattle. We manage a herd of nearly a thousand head, spread across our pastures.

They've always been a part of my life. I can rope a steer, and I've even ridden a bucking bronco.

When cattle prices fluctuate, it drastically changes our profit-and-loss statement at the end of the year.

Futures contracts are more than tickers on a screen to me and my family - they're feed bills, fuel costs, and paychecks.

Despite suffering from depressed grain prices this year, cattle prices have helped us thrive.

It's also one of the most powerful uptrends anywhere in the world right now.

Feeder Cattle Are Fighting for the Crown​

So far in 2025, feeder cattle have gained more than 36%, matching the returns of gold.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has managed an 11% increase, while bonds have remained largely unchanged.

The numbers don't lie, check the scoreboard:



Feeder cattle are leading the pack, returning more than 3x the S&P 500.

It's an incredible time to be a rancher.

Maybe I should've been a cowboy instead of hanging out here with this crazy Cuban guy, JC.

Commercial Hedgers Flip the Script​

The Commitment of Traders data tells the story even better.

For years, commercial hedgers - the producers, packers, and professionals closest to the market - have leaned toward the net-long side in feeder cattle.

Then, late last year and early this year, something changed. The commercials started aggressively building a net-short position.

Since then, the price of feeder cattle has gone parabolic:



Today, commercial hedgers are carrying their largest net-short position ever, and ranchers are locking in high prices for their cattle.

It's exactly the kind of behavior you expect to see in runaway bull markets.

Echoes of 1979​

If this feels historic, it's because it is. In the 1970s, feeder cattle experienced a legendary surge.

Prices stretched nearly 30% above the 12-month average before peaking in 1979. What followed was two decades of sideways action before a new secular bull finally began in the early 2000s.

Fast-forward to today, and we find ourselves in familiar territory:



Feeder cattle are trading at fresh all-time highs, and the distance from the 12-month EMA is the widest we've seen since that 1979 blow-off.

The parabolic uptrend may be closer to the end than the beginning, but until price quits climbing, I'm staying in the saddle.

This is a historic uptrend in a commodity most investors never think about.

Across the plains, this bull run has been a life-changing force, just like the ones that shaped the generations before mine.

I'm riding it until it bends, doing the best I can to make my people proud.

• The Communications sector ($XLC) led by a decent margin this week, gaining +2.8% or twice as much as the next best sector (Health Care). It's been the best performing sector this year, rising +19.1%YTD.
  
• On a relative basis, the sector had its best week versus the S&P 500 since January. As Ian notes, the ratio ($XLC/$SPY) broke out of an eight-month consolidation this week, closing at its highest level since 2021. Further leadership is likely after this week's breakout.
  
• Alphabet ($GOOGL) did most of the heavy lifting this week, but other heavyweights like $META and $NFLX could help the sector in the coming weeks.
  

The Takeaway: The Communications sector is reasserting its leadership after emerging from an eight-month consolidation relative to the S&P 500.







China makes things, the US makes dollars.

And where it counts is: China makes 100 drones at $1 and the US makes 1 drone at $100 the non-PPP GDP is the same. But where it counts, China is now far ahead.

Reflecting back on MSTR and their horribly leveraged capital structure around BTC.

The writing is on the wall re. unemployment. The recession already underway is now becoming visible in the shonky data. If the stock market starts to take a tumble, what does BTC do? Act like gold or a shonky NASDAQ stock? If the latter, MSTR is toast. LOL.


So the 2yr is signalling lower FFR.

Highly unlikely that the long end will follow. I would expect it to keep rising, which means another UST market bailout at some point not too far away. But before the bailout, stocks might have a moment.


WASHINGTON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said India and Russia seem to have been "lost" to China after their leaders met with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, expressing his annoyance at New Delhi and Moscow as Beijing pushes a new world order.

"Looks like we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!" Trump wrote in a social media post accompanying a photo of the three leaders together at Xi's summit in China.


Full:https://www.reuters.com/world/china...appear-lost-deepest-darkest-china-2025-09-05/


Will Trump stand aside and let the BRICS replace the USD in trade? If he does, gold goes much higher much sooner because oil production is still x6 gold production and BRICS trade is x2 gold production and growing x2 faster than gold production. Therefore gold price rises.


jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

Will Trump stand aside and let the BRICS replace the USD in trade?

can Trump stop the trend ?

the BRICS and several SCO members already do significant trade in local currencies , and trade settlements in physical gold would be difficult to stop as well

the only real way to strengthen faith in the US Dollar , is to make it reliable and trustworthy ( but Trump wants a weaker dollar to help US exports compete in the open market )

if India stops ( except where essential ) dealing in US Dollars , that will be a big drag on US Dollar demand

 

[ducati916]

can Trump stop the trend ?

the BRICS and several SCO members already do significant trade in local currencies , and trade settlements in physical gold would be difficult to stop as well

the only real way to strengthen faith in the US Dollar , is to make it reliable and trustworthy ( but Trump wants a weaker dollar to help US exports compete in the open market )

if India stops ( except where essential ) dealing in US Dollars , that will be a big drag on US Dollar demand

Morning Mr Divs,

No Trump and Bessent cannot stop the trend. Nothing stops this train.

Friday's jobs report was shocking but not surprising. It was a useful lens through which to view the overarching economic reality heading into the final months of 2025. The big picture: We're living in an economy in which powerful policy winds are buffeting both the supply and demand sides of the economy, each with uncertain magnitudes and lags. It makes for unusually high uncertainty about how to interpret incoming data that covers the recent past — and makes forecasting even the near future a perilous exercise. In effect, business decision-makers are sailing through a sea in which extreme winds and crosscurrents are pushing in different directions at different moments. State of play: Tariffs have been raised to a multiple of anything seen in most Americans' lifetimes, raising something like $30 billion a month in taxes that are coming from someone's pockets (U.S. importers, U.S. consumers, and international suppliers being the prime candidates). Tax legislation passed in July is designed to encourage a supply-side boost in investment, and includes spending increases on border security and tax cuts for households that will amount to demand-side stimulus in the months ahead. Deportations and restrictionist immigration policy mean there are fewer workers in the U.S., a cause of the flatlining in job growth evident in the last two jobs reports. This means both less supply of workers and less demand for the goods and services immigrants purchase (including housing). The Federal Reserve has resisted interest rate cuts all year, given the prospect of tariff-driven inflation, but now looks poised to relent in light of the sudden stop in job growth. Zoom in: That constellation of forces helps explain why the economic data has been sending such mixed signals in recent weeks, with some pointing to recessionary alarm bells and others pointing to things being more or less fine. Employers added 123,000 jobs a month in the first four months of the year — but came to a near halt in May, adding only 27,000 jobs a month since then (with June bringing the first negative jobs month in 4 1/2 years). The manufacturing sector contracted in August for the sixth consecutive month, the Institute for Supply Management said last week, and anecdotes from its survey respondents pointed to supply chain challenges from tariffs as a major headwind. Yes, but: The unemployment rate is still a low 4.3%, and weekly jobless claims, perhaps the best real-time indicators of layoff activity, remain subdued. GDP growth is tracking at a 3% annual rate in Q3, per the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. Zoom out: What does this all mean if you're facing personal or business decisions with economic stakes, like a major purchase or investment? In high and unpredictable winds, the best advice for a sailor is to remain calm, make careful, short tacks and avoid oversteering. Heading into year's end, that advice applies more broadly.

Vive la Deficit

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals Fiscal jitters have the French government on the brink of collapse for the second time in less than a year. Why it matters: What happens in Paris might be a warning to the rest of the world about investors' new aversion to large deficits — and the political crises that come with trying to address it. Driving the news: French Prime Minister François Bayrou looks unlikely to survive a vote of confidence later this afternoon, with opposition parties rising up against him over unpopular plans for budget cuts. France's deficit was 5.8% of GDP last year, the widest in the euro area and almost double the European Union's limit. Bayrou's plan — which proposed eliminating two public holidays, sweeping cuts to social welfare programs and tax hikes — was estimated to cut deficits to 4.6% of GDP by 2026. The big picture: The quest to tame spending in Europe's second-largest economy has been bumpy, even as soaring borrowing costs put pressure on politicians — recalling memories of the euro zone debt crisis in 2012. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said last week that risk in her home country had increased in recent days. Lagarde's comments came as investors demanded the biggest premium this year to hold French 10-year government debt relative to the German equivalent. What they're saying: In a speech today ahead of the vote, Bayrou said France's debt load was "life-threatening" for the country, France24 reported. The bottom line: Investors will be watching what happens when a nation is forced to cut government spending at a time when the global economy is already poised to slow from President Trump's trade war.

• Goin' to Surf City, gonna have some fun...
• Everybody's here for a financial festival.
• Let's see if everybody's still wrong about stocks.

I'm in beautiful Huntington Beach, California, for the annual Future Proof Festival. Just about everybody comes to this conference, so it's a great way to catch up with pals who live all over the country.

My friends at Ritholtz Wealth Management host this event each year. You can catch a couple of my podcast episodes with the boys here and here. They're a lot of fun.

I'm really curious to see the sentiment among all the people here at Future Proof. There are a ton of financial advisors and fintech folks in attendance. There's a media presence as well, both traditional and new.

Sentiment is really important in what we do here at TrendLabs. This note in particular is focused on finding where everybody's wrong.

Throughout the summer, investors were wrong about stocks. And it was one of the greatest summers in stock market history.

But, despite that, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is heading into the fall with five consecutive weeks of members being more bearish than bullish over the next six months. Two-thirds of them are either more cautious now or have become outright bearish compared to how they felt at the start of the year.

That's amazing to me. How is that even possible? So much pessimism in the face of relentless stock market strength and broadening participation?

Those are the individual investors. So what are the professionals doing?

Here is the futures positioning among asset managers and hedge funds:



The blue line represents the S&P 500, and the lighter green line shows you how underinvested they've been.

They sold into the hole and never got the chance to get back in.

This was a textbook V-bottom, and they're still not back in.

This is one of those things that can help keep a bid underneath the market.

Digging just a little deeper into futures positioning, extremes are most visible in the Russell 2000, where these speculators had their largest net-short positions ever.

The setup in the futures right now, in my opinion, is we want Small-Caps over Nasdaq-100.

The S&P 500 just closed at new all-time highs. Many other markets around the world are at new highs too. These are the types of things you see in bull markets.

Something you tend to see in the earlier stages of the best ones is disbelief. The mispositioning in futures speaks to that.

While I'm out here in California, I'll talk to hundreds of billions of dollars in assets, if not a trillion. Let's see how bullish these folks are - or if they're as skeptical as their asset-manager and hedge-fund cousins.

Financial advisors are different from those folks. And the fintech and media people don't manage money; they're the picks and shovels. But many of them are market enthusiasts and pay attention, in my experience.

So curious to get some feedback. I'll make sure to fill you guys in on my experience.





A surge of recent licensing deals for Chinese drugs is sending new signals that the U.S. could be toppled as the world's biotech leader.
Why it matters: A decade-long national strategy to develop its biopharmaceutical industry has left China in a position to deliver medical products faster and cheaper.

• It's part of a global power shift that's seen China emerge as a powerhouse in AI, chemistry and other areas, Andrei Iancu, undersecretary of commerce for intellectual property in the first Trump administration, told Axios.
• "Any way you cut it, any way you measure, they're basically pointing in the same direction: China taking the lead, already leading, or knocking on the door in these various areas," Iancu said.

By the numbers: China-sourced antibodies, heart treatments and other drug candidates will make up almost 40% of all licensing deals this year, up from less than 3% five years ago, according to Evaluate Pharma.

• Chinese biotech shares surged earlier this year amid an increase in licensing deals for cancer treatments, Financial Times reported in July.
• An analysis last week in Nature found 11 big pharma companies — including AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and GSK — collectively committed more than $150 billion to license novel assets from Chinese sources in the last five years.
• GSK has the highest estimated share, with roughly 10% of its pipeline composed of assets from Asia.

Between the lines: China's biotech boom comes as the U.S. is paring federal funding for biomedical research and freezing grants to universities and medical research institutes.

• Steep Food and Drug Administration staff cuts, the Trump administration's proposed 40% budget reduction for National Institutes of Health and its termination of $500 million for mRNA vaccine development could chill investor enthusiasm and fuel an exodus of research talent.
• "This current retrograde step by the U.S. will allow others to catch up and likely pull ahead in the context of vaccines," Robin Shattock, professor of mucosal infection and immunity at Imperial College London, told Inside Higher Ed.

• "It will only take another pandemic for them to rapidly see their mistake."
• An independent commission in April recommended Congress and the White House dedicate a minimum of $15 billion over the next five years to unleash more private capital into the U.S. biotechnology sector.
• The White House and Health and Human Services Department didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

What we're watching: Congress is set to revive the Biosecure Act this fall as part of a debate on the annual defense authorization bill, which could restrict Chinese biotech "companies of concern" from participating in government-funded research.
The bottom line: The way China's biotech boom coincides with a U.S. retreat could have far-reaching ramifications as drug manufacturers face a spate of patent expirations in the next five years.

• The question is whether pharma keeps turning east for less expensive new products.

Here are the latest earnings stats from the S&P 500

​

*Click the image to enlarge it After reporting a double beat, the world's second-largest semiconductor stock, Broadcom $AVGO, had a +2.78 reaction score. They posted revenues of $15.95B, versus the expected $15.83B, and earnings per share of $1.69, versus the expected $1.66. Following a mixed earnings report, the $20B apparel retailer, Lululemon Athletica $LULU, had a -5.98 reaction score. Their report showed revenues of $2.53B, versus the expected $2.54B, and earnings per share of $3.10, versus the expected $2.86. Now let's dive into the fundamentals and technicals

AVGO has been rewarded for 4 of its last 6 earnings reports

​

Broadcom rallied 9.4% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:

The top-line hit a new all-time high, growing by 22% year-over-year. This was driven by AI semiconductor revenue, which is increasing by 63% over the same timeframe. With profit margins growing faster than expected, operating income growth outpaced the top-line by 10% year-over-year. In addition to the great quarter, the management team boosted its forward guidance, expecting 50-60% revenue growth for the foreseeable future.

In last week's Weekly Beat column, we said it wouldn't surprise us to see a negative earnings reaction, given how the market treated Nvidia's $NVDA recent blockbuster earnings report. We also said that this is the new leader of the semiconductor industry, so anything can happen. After this report and Friday's reaction, it's clear to us that Mr. Market has solidified this company as the best semiconductor stock in the world. With a record backlog of $110B, demand for their products has never been stronger. This should help fuel further profitability in future reports. So long as AVGO is above 318, the path of least resistance is likely to remain higher for the foreseeable future.

LULU suffered its 3rd consecutive negative earnings reaction

​

Lululemon Athletica fell 18.6% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:

The top-line increased by 7% year-over-year. However, this was offset by tariffs, which shrank gross margin by 110 basis points. The U.S. is the only geographic segment that's not performing well, which is a significant problem because it accounts for over 60% of total revenue. Making a bad quarter worse, the management team lowered its forward guidance.

This was a particularly challenging quarter for what was once a leader in the apparel retail industry. Confirming the negative fundamentals are consistent negative earnings reactions and a stock that's in free fall. Since reaching its all-time high in late 2023, the stock has fallen nearly 70%, firmly establishing momentum in a bearish regime. Price is now testing a key level of polarity, and it looks vulnerable to further downside. Now is the time for the bears to step on the gas and take down the bulls. If and when LULU closes below 160, we expect a further decline in the price. Cheers to the week ahead

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jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

and yes
The French PM has fallen.
There is a big blockade day planned tomorrow.
Coming from the base, like the Gilet Jaunes (yellow jackets)..and similarly already being taking over before even starting by the left there ,communists and islamic socialists.
A nice boiling cauldron for Macron to go heavy handed.
Easier to be strong against citizens marching than the ak47 of our african Gang Lords.
"interesting few months ahead"
Whatever happens can not change much, France has fallen, societal, rule of law and obviously economic.
By using the Euro, a monetary collapse of France is reduced but then, the Euro and the whole Euro zone should be affected.
that could push the USD back up again

 

[ShareSuccess]

Enjoyed The Compound...Great Chat!

 

[divs4ever]

and yes
The French PM has fallen.
There is a big blockade day planned tomorrow.
Coming from the base, like the Gilet Jaunes (yellow jackets)..and similarly already being taking over before even starting by the left there ,communists and islamic socialists.
A nice boiling cauldron for Macron to go heavy handed.
Easier to be strong against citizens marching than the ak47 of our african Gang Lords.
"interesting few months ahead"
Whatever happens can not change much, France has fallen, societal, rule of law and obviously economic.
By using the Euro, a monetary collapse of France is reduced but then, the Euro and the whole Euro zone should be affected.
that could push the USD back up again

who ( which nation-states ) will be looted to save France and Germany ?

it will be interesting to see if the World Bank ( and IMF ) do a ' Cyprus solution ' to Germany and France

 

[ducati916]

The job market was showing cracks earlier than previously known, according to highly anticipated revisions released this morning. Why it matters: The data shifts the understanding of how the labor market performed in 2024 through earlier this year. It confirms the hiring slowdown has been underway for some time, raising the stakes that the economy's weakening trend might continue. What they're saying: "[T]he slower job creation implies income growth was also on a softer footing even prior to the recent rise in policy uncertainty and economic slowdown we've seen since the spring," Nationwide's financial market economist Oren Klachkin wrote in a note. By the numbers: The economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending in March 2025 than first estimated, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in preliminary revisions. The revisions were steepest, in percentage terms, in the information sector (down 2.3%), wholesale trade (-1.8%) and leisure and hospitality (-1.1%). The revisions were larger than the downward adjustment of 700,000 that economists anticipated. How it works: The BLS compiles monthly jobs reports based on surveys from households and businesses. The agency updates that data, on a lag, with more complete information from unemployment insurance tax records. This report — the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages — can show drastic revisions of previously released data. The intrigue: When the revisions are officially worked into the payrolls numbers starting early next year, average monthly job growth over the April 2024 to March 2025 period will be 71,000 — half of what was first reported. Of note: In recent weeks, Trump administration officials have used the BLS' revision procedures as a cudgel to attack government statistics, and the new benchmark revisions are no exception. "Today's massive downward revision gives the American people even more reason to doubt the integrity of data being published by BLS," Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said in a statement. "[T]here is no room for such a significant and consistent amount of error. It's imperative for the data to remain accurate, impartial, and never altered for political gain," she added. BLS is under her purview, though it has long been run by career technocrats. President Trump has seized on data from previous QCEW reports, suggesting — without evidence — the figures were politicized. Last month, he fired the BLS commissioner after revisions showed disappointing job growth over the summer. Yes, but: It is not uncommon for the BLS to dramatically revise jobs growth — though the downward revision of 911,000 jobs is the largest on record. That figure will be revised once more early next year. Like other statistical agencies around the world, the BLS has been plagued by low survey response rates that can result in revisions down the line. Shifts in the economic backdrop can also undermine the agency's models. "In steady times, their assumptions are accurate, but at turning points in the cycle they can be significantly wrong," ING chief international economist James Knightley wrote in a note. The bottom line: The labor market cracks are not new, though they have continued as employers are strained by trade and immigration policies.

Gas Markets Brace For Generational Supply Glut



- Following four years of tightness, global LNG supply is set for a prolonged period of oversupply as the United States, Qatar, Canada and even Russia all add hefty volumes of incremental supply from 2026 onwards.

- Simultaneously to the US ramping up Plaquemines and Corpus Christi III, Qatar’s largest expansion since 1997, the 32 mtpa North Field East, will start producing LNG mid-next year.

- Higher supplies should also mean higher LNG demand as the boil-off tends to disincentivize storing gas for long stretches of time, with the IEA expecting a 7% year-over-year increase.

- Whilst LNG prices for October-delivery cargoes now hover within the $11.00-11.50/MMBtu range, leading banks anticipate both JKM and TTF prices to dip into single digits by Q4 2026 and stay below $10/MMBtu for the rest of this decade.

- Russia could become the LNG markets’ black swan factor over the upcoming years as China starting to buy sanctioned gas from the 19.8 mtpa Arctic LNG 2 plant could add to the oversupply.
Market Movers

- UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) signed a memorandum of understanding with Egyptian authorities to drill five new gas wells in the Mediterranean Sea, boosting the country’s exploration efforts.

- Canada’s Strathcona Resources (TSO:SCR) raised its offer for peer oil sands producer MEG Energy (TSO:MEG), now offering $30.86 per share as it seeks to trump Cenovus Energy’s $27.79 per share bid.

- UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) farmed out a 55% interest in its offshore Block 04 in São Tomé and Principe’s territorial waters to Brazil’s Petrobras and Portugal’s Galp.

- Speaking at the 2025 APPEC conference in Singapore, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) top executive Brant Fish said that the U.S. oil major will invest heavily in petrochemicals in South Korea and cut down on its refining presence in Singapore.

Tuesday, September 09, 2025

OPEC+ pulled off a deft bit of expectations management—letting chatter build around a large output hike, then delivering far less. Even with an extra ~137,000 b/d coming from the group, Brent has rebounded to around $66.50/bbl, and it briefly jumped above $67 after reports of a surprise Israeli strike on Hamas targets in Qatar. Near-term upside risk also lingers if President Trump follows through on renewed talk of Russia sanctions.

OPEC+ Moves Ahead with Unwinding Cuts. Despite initial speculation that eight OPEC+ members could bring as much as 550,000 b/d of production back in October, the oil group agreed to raise collective output by ‘only’ 137,000 b/d to regain market share.

Saudi Arabia Slashes Asian Prices. Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has reacted to the OPEC+ decision by cutting the official selling price for October-loading cargoes headed to Asia by $1 per barrel, dropping it to a $2.20 per barrel premium vs Oman/Dubai.

Gold Soars to New Highs on US Concerns. Underwhelming US labor data from last week’s nonfarm payroll data helped push gold prices above $3,600 per ounce for the first time in history, with traders now seeing an almost 90% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut in September.

Nigerian Oil Workers Call for Anti-Dangote Strike. Nigeria’s main oil and gas union Nupeng, has called for a nationwide strike starting September 8 over the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery’s policy of banning its workers from unionizing, jeopardizing West African fuel supply.

Japan Seeks Third-Party Opinion on Alaska LNG. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) hired energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie to assess the $44 billion Alaska LNG project promoted by US President Trump, adding to worries about its profitability.

ExxonMobil Slams EU Energy Policy. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has publicly criticized Europe's ‘high-regulation, high-cost’ emission policies, saying the ongoing industrialization is hurting EU economies as the oil major seeks to sell its chemicals business on the Old Continent.

Russian Companies Rush to Issue Yuan Bonds. The Beijing-Moscow energy axis has been booming since last week’s SCO summit in China, with Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom, Rosneft and Rosatom all moving ahead with sales of yuan-denominated ‘panda’ bonds.

Canada’s Key Ports Sets Sight on Dredging. Canadian pipeline operator Trans Mountain expects by early 2027 ships taking crude at TMX’s Westridge terminal would be finally able to load 100% of an Aframax tanker once ongoing dredging works finish, with capacity currently capped at 550,000 barrels.

Key Copper Mine Halted Amidst Mudslides. US copper giant Freeport-McMoran (NYSE:FCX) halted mining operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine in the world, after mudslides blocked access to parts of the underground infrastructure.

India Revokes Grid Access to Renewables. India's power grid authority has revokedgrid access for almost 17 GW of renewable energy projects in order to prioritize smooth connectivity of other generation capacity that’s operational or nearing completion soon.

Gazprom Claims a Deal that Wasn't. Russia's gas giant Gazprom claimed to have clinched a deal to increase gas flows to Kazakhstan in 2025-2026, seeking to offset list volumes to Europe; however, the Kazakh side played it down by saying there were only discussions on potential cooperation.

Top 2025 Mining Merger Is Happening. London-headquartered mining giant Anglo American (LON:AAL) announced that it has agreed to merge with Canada's copper miner Teck Resources (TSO:TECK), creating a new entity Anglo Teck with the former owning 62.4%.

Malaysia’s Key LNG Plant Under Threat. Malaysia’s largest LNG export facility, the 29.3 mtpa Bintulu terminal located in the state of Sarawak, was placed under heightened security measures after it received threats to ‘burn it down’.

Kenny Glick over at Hit The Bid likes to say that all the cool kids are trading Space Rockets and robots. That’s the game right now, and Planet Labs $PL fits squarely in that trade. This isn’t just another satellite company. They have built the largest constellation of Earth-observing satellites in history, with a mission to image the entire world every day. Their technology makes global change visible and actionable. It delivers high-resolution datasets that governments, corporations, and NGOs can’t get anywhere else. This is a company playing at the intersection of space, AI, and data infrastructure. Their clients range from the U.S. Department of Defense and NATO to energy companies, insurers, and farmers. Think about the total addressable market. It spans defense and intelligence, climate monitoring, global commerce, AI-driven analytics, agriculture, and insurance. The upside is staggering - we’re talking about a future where sovereign governments demand daily, high-resolution images of their borders, insurers dynamically price risk with satellite feeds, and tech giants train AI models on Planet’s unmatched Earth dataset. For investors, Planet Labs is no longer just a speculative “space play.” It's starting to put up numbers that prove the model works:

​

*Chart courtesy of Planet Labs' latest Investor Presentation In Monday's report, Planet Labs' backlog surged 245% year-over-year to $736M, one of the fastest growth rates in the entire market. That’s because they’re landing massive, multi-year contracts with the German government, JSAT, NATO, and the U.S. military. Revenue growth looks slower at just +20% year-over-year, but that’s the nature of their model. They book contracts that convert into revenue over time. The real story is that the pipeline is exploding, and that future revenue is already locked in. For the first time, Planet Labs is free cash flow positive:

​

*Chart courtesy of Planet Labs' latest Investor Presentation In its latest report, Planet Labs generated $46M in free cash flow, with $54M year-to-date. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA turned positive to $6M, marking the third consecutive profitable quarter on that measure. EPS remains negative, but fundamentally, the business has turned a corner. This is no longer just about potential - this company is proving it can generate real earnings while scaling a capital-intensive satellite fleet. The market loves what they're doing:

​

Planet Labs' last earnings reaction on June 5 was its best reaction ever, as the stock surged over 49%. This quarter? The stock followed with its second-best earnings reaction in history, ripping 48% higher. These historic back-to-back post-earnings moves are Mr. Market's way of telling us loud and clear that this company is doing something right. Stocks don't react to earnings like this unless something game-changing is happening. Especially at a multi-billion dollar valuation... Zooming out, it's clear that PL has plenty of room to run:

​

After years of carving out an accumulation pattern, Planet Labs has made a decisive upside resolution. Moreover, it did so with an earnings-fueled gap-n-go. It doesn't get much better than this... The bulls are in complete control of this name, and we don't think that will change anytime soon. So long as PL holds above 7.50, the path of least resistance is likely to remain higher for the foreseeable future. Happy fishing

First things first: shoutout to the closed-minded. The stubborn and dogmatic among us. The trend fighters. They make it easier for the rest of us who think clearly to make money in the market. And JC would tell me, “Don’t worry about them. Forget ‘em.” And he’s probably wiser than me for that, but I just can’t— because I used to be one of them... I had all the answers. I was always right and the market was always wrong. I knew everything, but I kept losing. I was lucky, though. I found Technical Analysis, and now I let the charts do most of the hard thinking for me… I’ve found markets to be much easier this way. So in that spirit, here is my last-effort appeal to the “Never China” crowd… “China is uninvestable.” “Those are communist stocks.” “They are going to get delisted.” If you find yourself thinking or saying these kinds of things, I implore you to join me in this thought experiment. Here’s the truth about China right now… These are the most-hated stocks in the market… But they are also the global leaders.

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While China’s short interest is near record highs, the country is sitting at the top of the charts in our global relative strength rankings. And that leadership is occurring in the context of a major trend reversal — signaling a brand-new bull market is underway for Chinese stocks. Here’s a look at the country’s Magnificent Seven, or what we call the FANGhai Composite– completing a rounding bottom.

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This basket includes stocks such as Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and others. The trend has shifted, and the path of least resistance is finally higher for these international tech giants. This combination of price action, sentiment, and depressed valuations is the perfect recipe for a big move. It’s the kind of fat pitch that doesn’t come around too often. And these charts resemble so many that we’ve bought before them, with the same textbook reversal patterns and breakouts. So, what’s the problem? Why are they so hated? Are Chinese stocks really that different from the rest? I don’t think so. As far as I’m concerned, they look the same, so we should treat them the same. Here are some charts that have me thinking this way. First, this is US online retail and Chinese online retail:

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US-based online retailers and the Amazon of China have topped together, bottomed together, and are now both resolving long-term bases together. I don’t think it is a coincidence that Alibaba $BABA looks just like the Amplify Online Retail ETF $IBUY. It’s the same story with speculative tech. The Ark Innovation ETF $ARKK and Invesco China Technology ETF $CQQQ have been through the same volatile cycle — one fraught with wild runs and painful drawdowns. After basing for several years, they’re both reversing trends.

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If I pulled the tickers off these charts, most people couldn’t tell the difference. And this phenomenon isn't isolated to just the technology and growth groups… Chinese banks, as state-owned as they may be, look just like banks in other parts of the world… even developed and democratic nations like those in Europe:

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Here’s a look at European financials $EUFN resolving higher from a multi-year base. And guess what? The big Chinese banks are attempting the exact same breakout. Once again, these trends are in sync and have been for a long time. They base together, they top together… and now they’re about to break out together. How about China vs US EVs?

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Build Your Dreams $BYDDY has been trending just as well, if not better, than Tesla $TSLA this cycle. Let’s try something different. Here are the two largest travel booking platforms in the two countries:

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Trip.com $TCOM has actually outperformed Expedia $EXPE for the past few years. It’s been the better stock, at least for this cycle. The point I’m trying to make is… maybe we’re not so different— us and them. Not to mention, Chinese stocks represent some of the best growth stories from around the world. This is the only country with tech stocks comparable to those in the US. It’s a bull market, and global participation is expanding. Investors are moving out on the risk spectrum and trying new things. I think they’re going to have to reconsider China. I think a whole lot of “Never China” folks will be “Always China” folks by the time this bull run is over… After all, nothing changes sentiment like price– or better yet, alpha. And as all those bears capitulate, we’re left with an army of potential buyers on the sidelines. When I think of it in that light, I don’t think these China charts will look so much like these US charts in the future… I think they’ll look a lot better. Maybe I’m crazy, and I’ll be wrong about Chinese stocks. I’m definitely open-minded to it. Are you? P.S. So far, the feedback from the market has been nothing but positive. We’ve been buying calls in FANGhai composite names all summer long. We’ve already taken some profits in our BABA calls, and the remaining position is currently up over 230%. As for BIDU, we doubled down on our position in late August and own both September and October calls. We’ve sold the double in each of them, and today the remaining calls traded as high as +325% and +840%, respectively.

• The +20-Year Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) is coming off its best week in more than a year, gaining +2.3% last week. It rose another +1.3%today, notching a four-day winning streak and its highest close since April.
  
  
• After peaking in 2020, $TLT has endured its longest and deepest drawdown on record. Despite the recent bounce, the overall trend remains lower.
  
  
• After reclaiming the Summer highs at $88 today, the next upside objective will be around $93, aligning with the YTD highs. If $TLT continues to bottom in the coming months, it will likely have significant intermarket implications.
  

The Takeaway: $TLT closed higher for the fourth consecutive day, building on last week's bounce. The recent thrust suggests a potential trend reversal is underway, but further confirmation is needed before a durable bottom has been established.

• Concentration is a matter of perspective.
• If you want to find something to worry about, you will.
• When it comes to investing, think like an Earthling.

Here's a big one that gets brought up a lot: "The U.S. is too concentrated and the indexes are being driven by too few stocks."

In case you hadn't heard, the top 10 stocks in America make up 38% of the total value of the S&P 500.

Does that sound like a lot to you?

Because I am told constantly that this trend is unsustainable.

But, as we so often see, everybody's wrong.

Concentration Globally ​

I'm proud to be an American. But, when it comes to investing, we want to think like Earthlings.

Across the globe, a 38% concentration is actually just a drop in the bucket.

This chart comes from my friend Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group.

We're looking at the percentage of the total market that the top 10 stocks represent per country.

You think 38% is too much?

"Hold my beer," says the rest of the world.



Look at that list.

When you put things in perspective, you come away with a completely different thought.

The U.S. actually isn't very concentrated at all, not when you compare it to all the other most important countries around the world.

Perspective ​

In a vacuum, certain numbers and values may seem like a lot.

But, when you look at things through the lens of an Earthling and not just American eyes, the picture looks much different.

Ten stocks represent more than a third of the S&P 500?

Great. It'll likely be more when we address this again in a few quarters.

And, if not, that's OK too.

Because it actually doesn't even matter.

Best to focus our energy elsewhere.






Full:https://www.ft.com/content/36f82232-d970-405c-97f6-8ce98725684b


Developing countries are moving out of dollar debts and turning to currencies with rock bottom interest rates such as the Chinese renminbi and Swiss franc. The shift, embarked upon by indebted countries including Kenya, Sri Lanka and Panama, reflects the higher rates set by the US Federal Reserve, which have angered President Donald Trump as well as increasing other countries’ debt servicing costs.


“The high level of interest rates and a steep US Treasury yield curve . . . has made USD financing more onerous for [developing] countries, even with relatively low spreads on emerging market debt,” said Armando Armenta, vice-president for global economic research at AllianceBernstein. “As a result, they are seeking more cost-effective options.”


But he described many such shifts to cheaper, non-dollar financing as “temporary measures” by countries that had to “focus on lowering their financing needs”. A switch to renminbi borrowing — which comes as the Chinese currency hits its highest level against the dollar this year — is also a consequence of Beijing’s $1.3tn belt-and-road development programme, which has lent hundreds of billions of dollars for infrastructure projects to governments across the globe. But Yufan Huang, fellow at the China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University, argued that progress for Beijing’s wider efforts to adopt lending in the currency remained limited. “Even now, when renminbi rates are lower, many borrowers remain hesitant,” he said. “For now, this looks more like a case-by-case operation, as with Kenya.” Since governments rarely have export earnings in currencies such as the renminbi and Swiss franc, they also may have to hedge their exposure to exchange rates through derivatives.


With the benchmark US federal funds rate at a range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent — far higher than equivalent rates set by other major central banks — the outright cost of new borrowing in dollars is relatively high for many developing nations — even if spreads for such debt are at their lowest premiums over US Treasuries in decades.


The Swiss National Bank cut rates to zero in June while China’s benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate is 1.4 per cent. “It seems that the cost of funding might be the reason for conversion into renminbi,” said Thilina Panduwawala, economist at Colombo-based Frontier Research. Many “Belt and Road” loans of the 2010s were in dollars, at a time when US interest rates were far lower.
So UST long end prices rallying...a trend or a trade? (See charts above).


And a risk highlighted last week:




Full:https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...llar-reserves-fed-help-questioned-2025-09-03/


Which means what?

Posen is advising to buy gold.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

A federal judge said Cook can keep her job and that Trump was unlawful in firing her. Why it matters: The decision takes an initial step in defining the limits of a president's power when it comes to the Federal Reserve, in an unprecedented case that might ultimately reach the nation's highest court. The big picture: The Federal Reserve Act says that a president can remove a governor "for cause," though it does not define what that means or who decides whether that standard is met. Trump's firing of Cook is the first time the question has been put to the test. At issue is whether the president can decide what constitutes cause, or if that must be established through some formal legal process. What they're saying: "The best reading of the 'for cause' provision is that the bases for removal ... are limited to grounds concerning a [Fed governor's] behavior in office and whether they have been faithfully and effectively executing their statutory duties," Judge Jia Cobb wrote in the ruling. Cobb suggested that the allegations that Cook committed mortgage fraud, factual or not, are not sufficient grounds for Trump to fire her. Cobb said that Cook was "substantially likely to succeed" on the claim that Trump violated the Federal Reserve Act. She added that Cook would also likely win on the claim that she was deprived of due process to address the allegations. Between the lines: Housing regulator Bill Pulte's allegations focus on three mortgages taken out in 2021 — one year before Cook was confirmed to the Fed board. Cook's legal team argued last month that Trump could not lean on alleged conduct that predated her term to fire her. "Allowing the President to unlawfully remove Governor Cook on unsubstantiated and vague allegations would endanger the stability of our financial system and undermine the rule of law," Cook's lawyer Abbe David Lowell said in a statement last night. The other side: Trump administration lawyers, who will surely appeal the decision, have argued that the White House has broad authority in deciding what constitutes cause, with a few exceptions — including a policy disagreement. "The Government's argument that a rule that does not take into account pre-confirmation conduct will lead to a parade of horribles ... ignores that this is precisely the line that Congress has drawn in dozens of statutes over the past century," Cobb wrote. "This ruling will not be the last say on the matter, and the Trump Administration will continue to work to restore accountability and confidence in the Fed," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement, saying that Cook's removal was lawful. The bottom line: Unless a higher court overturns the decision in the days ahead, Cook can cast a vote at the Fed's policy meeting next week — one likely to end with the Fed cutting interest rates for the first time in a year.

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals The latest wholesale price data amounts to a green light for interest rate cuts. Driving the news: The Producer Price Index fell 0.1% in August, the Labor Department said this morning, and on a year-over-year basis fell to 2.6% from 3.1%. Analysts had expected the index to rise 0.3%. Excluding volatile food, energy and trade services, the index came in hotter, up 0.3% for the month and 2.8% year on year. State of play: The Fed is all but certain to cut interest rates next week in response to faltering job growth, but the course of inflation will help determine how much further it can ease policy in the remainder of the year. The PPI data is evidence that tariffs are not driving a substantial enough inflation surge to prevent multiple additional rate cuts. What they're saying: "Some tariff impacts are observable in the data as the levies work their way through the supply chain, but the effects are not overly concerning," wrote Oren Klachkin, financial market economist at Nationwide, in a note. "Overall, PPI isn't hot enough to make Fed officials think twice about cutting rates next week," he added. What's next: Tomorrow morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index for August. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect it will show an acceleration in price pressures, seeing a 0.3% month-on-month rise, or 2.9% year on year.

Counting all the people at work in a country the size of the US isn’t easy. That said, the latest revision to the official non-farm payroll data, which found that jobs were over-counted by 910,000 in the 12 months to March, does nothing to salve confidence. This was the largest change on record and toward the lower end of expectations. However, it came as no great surprise, and the history of revisions to the number shows that initial inaccuracy isn’t a new phenomenon:


It still doesn’t suggest great things about the US economy. How then to explain that stocks celebrated this news by setting yet another all-time high? Since hitting a low five months ago, a week after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the S&P 500 is up 31%. That is very, very unusual; since 2005, only the rebounds after the Global Financial Crisis and Covid saw bigger five-month rallies — and they both followed much deeper initial selloffs:


More baffling, this rally happened even though the April 2 tariffs have been upheld. If it made sense to sell then, ongoing deterioration in the economy should add to the reasons to do so now. This weird bounce already deserves a place in the history books. But there are some explanations.

Falling bond yields, reducing the cost of money and expanding the multiples that can be justified for stocks, plainly are a big factor — but it’s noticeable that even after they tumbled in response to the latest employment data, 10-year yields are still higher than they were when the equity rally began after “Liberation Day:”


Lower yields are only unambiguously good news for stocks if the economy is in decent shape. Despite the shocking payrolls revision, there’s some evidence of that. One data point that supports equity bulls is the latest small business survey from the National Federation of Independent Business. It found significant declines both in complaining of higher prices and finding job openings hard to fill. That looks like falling inflationary pressure:


Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations remain fairly well rooted. The latest consumer survey by the New York Fed shows longer-term forecasts unchanged at 3%, at the top of the Federal Reserve’s target range. One-year expectations ticked up slightly, but the overall picture looks healthy:


While the July inflation data showed a pickup in the goods prices most directly affected by tariffs, there’s a decent argument that they are stable enough to allow the Fed to cut more aggressively. July’s rise in the trimmed mean for the Personal Consumption Expenditure, which excludes outliers, was the lowest since 2020:


That said, Deutsche Bank’s version of measures for underlying or trend inflation that the Fed has calculated at different times suggests that there has been very little progress over the last year. The trend in price rises remains markedly higher than before the pandemic:



At this point, Thursday’s inflation number would need to be a true black swan, far above the consensus expectation of 3.15% for core inflation, to stop the Fed from cutting next month. That seems to swamp all other considerations for equity investors.








jog on
duc