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Resisting Climate Hysteria

Instead of wasting bandwidth in a pissing contest why not post some relevance to the topic of the thread?

http://www.news.com.au/national/bre...mate-predictions/story-e6frfku9-1226844241944

True

And it looks like we are entering another El Niño which means hotter weather with less rain.

The Bureau of Meteorology is hedging its bets but University of Southern Queensland climate scientist Roger Stone and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are warning an El Niño, associated with drier weather across eastern Australia, might take hold between May and July.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...nino-on-the-way/story-e6frg8y6-1226810033167#
 
Instead of wasting bandwidth in a pissing contest why not post some relevance to the topic of the thread?

Thankyou for your feedback T.S.
The alarmists appear to have been very appreciative of your input on this matter.

Given basilio's reluctance, would you care to stand in as champion by addressing my assertions regarding our increased respiratory CO2 needs?
 

From what I can make out it would appear that "some" of the scientific diagnostics that have been asserted by noted scientists (CSIRO for instance) who believe in global warming or that man is responsible for creating Co2 which in turn is directly attributable to increasing temperatures globally has some merit. Do I believe that there is scaremongering in the "scientific" community by both sides of the equation. You betcha. But to say that the earth's temperature is going to increase by 6 degrees in 20 years and polar ice caps are going to melt and the ocean is going to rise by X amount of metres is pure fantasy.

Given your persistence to remain as the undisputed "champion" of whatever you want to babble on about as gospel in this thread does not excite nor enthrall me one bit to ATTEMPT to have a meaningful discourse with you.

I was merely pointing out that wasting bandwidth on provoking someone into a response is neither productive nor satisfactory of someone of your intellect to further a sensible outcome to this debate which sometimes borders on the ridiculous with banal and wild accusations being thrown about by both sides. (bumpity bump bump ... REALLY cynic I thought better of you !)

Yes Co2 (or too much thereof) does increase the respiratory rate. That is a given. The body requires oxygen (another given) A person's breathing rate influences the level of CO2 in their blood. (givens everywhere today)

Need I go on or do you wish to champion this worthless cause further than it needs to go?
 

Again, thanks for your feedback but that hasn't addressed my assertion regarding the increased population of humans and their livestock as being reasonably able to not only account, but indeed demand, an increased atmospheric presence of CO2 in circulation within our ecosystem.
 

As you say in your own words ... your assertion ... have you any scientific proof to back up your affirmation? Still surprised by your appetition to be drawn into such an eristic parley?

Logically as humans and livestock increase in numbers so would their Co2 expulsion into the atmosphere. My understanding is that humans exhale somewhere between 700 - 900 grams (depending on diet, exercise, location, maturity etc) per day. Ipso facto, more humans breathing would also require more oxygen to be consumed.

Your point is what again cynic?

Are you suggesting that by culling the livestock and human population would be one way of reducing the amount of Co2 gas being exuded into the atmosphere?
 
... Your point is what again cynic?

Are you suggesting that by culling the livestock and human population would be one way of reducing the amount of Co2 gas being exuded into the atmosphere?

I'm not goin' vegan!
So kill me, ... or plant a tree!! :
 

Beautifully expressed T.S. Although I didn't articulate it as well as your good self, those were the sentiments to which basilio responded with the bold accusation of "slaughtering a thousand scientifc facts".

Your point is what again cynic?

Are you suggesting that by culling the livestock and human population would be one way of reducing the amount of Co2 gas being exuded into the atmosphere?

I was attempting to highlight the opposite scenario. By artificially reducing the atmospheric presence of CO2 the human populace may be sabotaging its very own ecosystem!
 
I was attempting to highlight the opposite scenario. By artificially reducing the atmospheric presence of CO2 the human populace may be sabotaging its very own ecosystem!

Wanna put your thesis on the table in point form?
 
Wanna put your thesis on the table in point form?

(i) Fauna such as humans and much of their livestock inhale O2 and exhale CO2.
(ii) Flora recycle CO2 into O2.
(iii) The conduit for circulatory exchange of CO2 and O2 between flora and fauna is generally considered to be our atmosphere.
(iv) The human population and accompanying livestock has increased giving rise to the increased expulsion of respiration related CO2 into our atmosphere.
(v) Consequently a measurably increased presence of CO2 in our atmosphere, pursuant to the aforementioned circulatory needs is to be expected.
(vi) This increase cannot automatically be assumed to be evidence of a problem until the circulatory component is reasonably accounted.
(vii) Hasty actions without due reference to humanity's respiratory needs could potentially lead to undesirable outcomes.
 
From an energy security perspective, both globally and in the Australian context, by far the biggest problem is oil. Gas comes next, with coal (especially brown coal) being far less of an issue.

The trouble with the carbon tax is that it encourages a switch from secure energy sources (coal) to less secure ones (primarily gas and to some extent oil). The exact opposite of what we ought to be doing so far as fossil fuels are concerned. It's only a benefit to the extent that it encourages either outright demand reduction (not happening to any significant extent) or a switch to renewables (which is largely being driven by the Renewable Energy Target rather than the carbon tax).

Australian oil production is declining whilst demand is rising and we're already heavily reliant on oil imports. Meanwhile the LNG boom has seen practically all of our natural gas either committed to export or to existing domestic uses, leaving practically nothing to replace oil as a transport fuel or for new uses in industry. Even worse is the shift to gas for electricity - which as some are finally realising has given us a fleet of new gas-fired millstones around the power industry's neck for the next 30 years. Don't even mention that some of those gas-fired plants rely on oil for backup fuel when gas supply is constrained.

I'd rather see a fossil fuel tax as such than one based on carbon emissions. That would drive a switch to sustainable energy in a true sense, rather than a dead end dash for gas which isn't going to end well once the price shoots up over the next 3 years (which is pretty much now in a long term planning sense). We've already seen the demise of at least one industry (alumina refinery in the NT) as a result and it won't be the last.

From an energy security perspective, brown coal and non-export grades of black coal are the least of our worries really. It's oil and gas we need to be worried about.

Any tax-based action to address energy does, of course, need to be global in order to be effective. And "global" means the likes of South Africa, Russia, most South American countries etc not the EU (not really in the game anyway), Japan (not in the game at all) etc.

If I were making the decisions then I'd be focusing very heavily on transport fuels along with a longer term plan to phase out gas-fired power. Put freight onto rail, electric where practical, focus on fuel efficient passenger vehicles and the use of natural gas in transport, and stop the construction of new gas-fired power stations except in locations where there aren't any practical alternatives at present. Get electricity from renewables and coal, divert gas into transport and address the increasingly precarious oil supply situation.
 

No point in talking sense here smurph, it's all about headlines and emotions.
 
Good points Smurf.

I agree it is not a black/white situatation. I see two objectives
1) Finding away to move from coal fired power stations to renewable energy powered units to reduce CO2 emissions
2) Developing energy security with regard to our dependence on oil.

There would be a mixture of policies to deal with those needs
 
Always find it useful to discover intelligent analysis from people one might regard as climate skeptics.

Turns out Judith Curry has been well aware of the basic issues around climate change for many years.


In 2007 she analyzed Bjorn Lomborg work and made the following points. (among others)


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/10/AR2007101002157.html
 
I'd certainly agree that risk, as a general concept, is very much misunderstood. Common arguments relate to how likely something is to occur, completely missing the point about consequence.

A 1% chance of someone being killed at work is a far greater concern than a 50% chance of someone getting a paper cut for example.
 

IMO basilio, what the problem is, everyone agrees there is a problem with global warming.

One side wants us to lose our standard of living, become a third world economy and become martyrs.

The other side want a global solution, that's effective.

I'm supprised the Labor/ Greens aren't jumping up and down, a lot of carbon intensive industries are shutting up shop in Australia.

They should be rejoicing, all we need now is the 'clean energy jobs' Labor/ Greens were promising, to kick in.lol
Absolute Dicks.

Once it is accepted globaly, that a catastophe is inevitable a global solution will be formulated.
Untill then, you can flog yourself as much as you want, it will make no difference what so ever.
Appart from hurting your back.
 

Let's get real there's not going to be a global solution. We are going to have learn to live with climate change.
 
Let's get real there's not going to be a global solution. We are going to have learn to live with climate change.

Actually, I think not, there is a push toward reducing dependence on fossil fuel.

The uptake on home solar, has deferred the requirement for new base load power stations.

This of course is a short term hit, as the industrial 24/7 load picks up, the overnight load increases and the home solar effect decreases.

At this point in our evolution, I think there needs to be a big push toward nuclear power generation, obviously with safety as a major concern.

However at this point, nuclear is the only low polluting, high energy density fuel, suitable for base load power generation.

That is unless you have major sources of hydro generation available.

I see the next big step being, houses wired for low voltage.

There is no real reason, other than air conditioners, for houses to be supplied with 250v.

With the advent of high efficiency led lighting, soft start energy efficient 12v fridges, 12v led/lcd t.v's.

The only high current device that requires mains voltage(in a house) is the a/c and maybe a bore pump.

I would say the electricity supply companies are $hitting themselves. Only my humble opinion.lol

Now, if we can get the same energy density from batteries, as we do from fossil fuel.

It's game over.lol That is the key.
 

I think new technology will help at the margins but not without Governments coercing people to use it with carrots and sticks (which was partly the purpose of the carbon tax you hate so much).

To reduce carbon enough to make a serious dent in global warming you'd be looking at very aggressive regulation from countries around the world which would result in lowered living standards. That's not going to happen.
 

See this is why we get no where, you say I hate a carbon tax.
That is completely wrong, I want a global carbon tax.
I don't want us to try and tell the world how to do it, and cut our wrists proving it.

Your second paragraph is actually completly wrong.
The countries that need to reduce their emmissions China and India already have low living standards. China is being more aggresive than most countries to reduce their emmissions. Their air pollution is a huge problem.
 
All this comes down to the existence of a cheap (excluding environmental effects) resource in the form of coal and gas being available, thus bringing about the natural human tendency to want to use it rather than using something more costly.

Whilst there is certainly an environmental cost with coal, it's not a cash cost that consumers are paying today. So as with anything financial, there's the natural tendency to leave someone else to foot the bill when it arrives, safe in the knowledge that you won't be alive when most of it arrives.

Fossil fuels provide a massive leverage of human effort. Relatively few people are employed in order to produce a vast amount of energy, which then does the work of billions of people even in countries with a relatively small workforce.

Here's some facts and figures to illustrate the point. I've used data for Tasmania since I have the figures, but the same principle applies in any developed society (with the exception of the point that Tas uses more hydro and wood, and less coal and gas, than is typical of most places).

Oil = equivalent to a workforce of 80 million people.

Hydro-electricity = equivalent to a workforce of 62 million people.

Natural gas = equivalent to 31 million workers.

Wood (used as fuel) = equivalent to 29 million workers.

Coal = equivalent to a workforce of 17 million.

Wind = equivalent to 7 million workers.

Landfill gas = equivalent to 200,000 workers.

Solar electricity (rooftops) = equivalent to 135,000 workers.

Total workforce = equivalent to 226 million human workers, of which only 0.1% are actual humans.

So we have Tasmania, population just over 500,000 people, with an effective workforce of 226 million. And only about 1% of the state's actual human workforce is employed in the energy industry in order to make this happen. Even the rotting garbage at a few rubbish tips in Hobart and Launceston contributes almost as much as the entire human workforce.

That's the sort of leverage I'm talking about and it's much the same everywhere. This is what makes our current lifestyle possible - we do 0.1% of the work ourselves, and get our almost free energy slaves to do the other 99.9%. Take that cheap energy away and everything falls in a heap real quick - there's no way that humans could do even 1% of what we get done with cheap energy today.

Now here's the problem. The energy sources we use presently don't require many people in order to operate. You have a few hundred workers running the hydro system producing the equivalent labour of 62 million. Or you have a few hundred workers at a coal-fired plant in another state doing much the same.

The trouble is that "alternative" energy sources typically offer less leverage of human effort. It takes more people to produce the same power in a reliable manner. We have to put more effort into it, thus diverting human labour away from something else and that leads directly to reduced living standards.

As for what could reasonably work as a solution, I'd be putting my efforts into geothermal, solar thermal, wind and hydro in the Australian context with geothermal being the big "game changer" if we can get dry geothermal working satisfactorily. It does need government backing in my opinion, as did coal, hydro and gas to get them up and running, and given the potential benefits it seems well worth putting some serious effort into it if the private sector doesn't get a move on.

Geothermal - we've got massive potential resources in several states within an acceptable distance of major loads. Since it could produce 24/7 baseload power, it's a real game changer.

Solar thermal - there are limits but certainly it's possible to get consistent power from the sun to supply a decent portion of the total load.

Wind - it's intermittent but the resource is pretty decent especially in SA and Tas, and combined with hydro it can indeed provide baseload energy.

Hydro - we could certainly build "another Snowy" if we wanted to, Australia isn't as lacking in hydro resources as seems to be the popular belief. The main role however would be to provide a storage and balancing means so as to integrate solar and wind at high levels into the grid and maintain a constant supply to consumers. There are many potential developments in Qld, NSW, Vic and Tas.

The trouble is, all of those are at present more expensive than coal. Brown coal in particular is incredibly cheap - the cost of mining a tonne of brown coal and running it through the boilers at the more modern power stations in Victoria is almost exactly the same as running water that falls free from the sky through hydro turbines in any existing scheme on a cost per unit of output basis. Running an existing coal plant is incredibly cheap when the fuel itself is worthless and everything is highly automated.

The crux of it is that coal is cheap and plentiful so we use it. If gold was cheap and plentiful then we'd make door knobs and especially electrical cables out of it. But since gold is scarce and expensive to extract, we're forced to accept the use of inferior materials for practically all applications. It's the same with coal - if there was very little coal on Earth and it cost a fortune to mine then we wouldn't be using it to generate electricity, having simply accepted the higher cost of using alternative methods. But since we do have cheap coal, we want to use it.

It's the same with anything. Once you have something cheap, in this case coal, humans don't want to lose it in favour of something that requires more effort and provides less leverage. Just like someone who earns $150 an hour doesn't want a pay cut to $25 and hour, but would be more than happy with $25 if the alternative was to earn nothing. That's essentially the problem we have - there are alternatives but they effectively involve a pay cut and most people tend not to be keen on that idea.
 
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