OOO - Betashares Crude Oil Index ETF - Currency Hedged (Synthetic)

[finicky]

Market Matters views on Crude this morning

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OOO not held by me
Accumulate view on WDS and maybe BPT

"Crude Oil ($US/barrel)
Hedge funds have turned the least bullish on Brent crude in about six months as OPEC+ agreed to a second significant production increase, increasing concerns that the extra supply could lead to a global glut. Money managers reduced their net-long position on Brent by 12,383 lots to 97,558 (over 10%) in the week ending May 6, the lowest since October. Also, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, short-only bets against West Texas Intermediate rose by the most since March.
Over the last year, traders experienced mixed success in the oil complex – no read through here.

At the end of last week, oil rose as algorithmic traders fled short positions amid renewed optimism about trade talks between the US and China. The rally was limited by President Donald Trump’s comments that an 80% tariff on China “seems right.” Traders are short and driving short-term swings across the space. Our main take is that it’s hard to imagine the news getting any worse for oil, yet the commodity is comfortable above $US60, suggesting this is the floor.

While our base case remains that the US and global economy don’t fall into a recession, too many macro factors are leaning on crude prices for us to turn bullish.
OOO
MM is neutral Brent Crude ~$US62"

 

[divs4ever]

In ooo but could be in many threads.
If you follow the news:
View attachment 199250
Step back: gas is going to be more expensive because the weather is warming up:
WTF?
Paris was getting hail storm last week and there was snow storm blocking highways a fortnight ago in southern France ..

Unless August aka in 3 months might get warmer and so power consumption surges requiring gas turbines turned on?
When i see headlines like that, i actually wonder if they are anything but noise

no i can definitely smell something ... it reminds me of previous bull digestion

those poor fools have even forgotten weather cycles , maybe Europe is planning to block out the Sun along with England

gas will be more expensive because they will be putting more sanctions on Russia

 

[finicky]

Macro Monday: Will the “Goldilocks Scenario” prevail for stocks? - Market Matters

Macro Monday: Will the “Goldilocks Scenario” prevail for stocks? Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations

marketmatters.com.au

Crude Oil ($US/barrel)

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to raise production again next month, reinforcing its shift toward regaining market share over defending prices. Members will add an additional 137,000 barrels a day, marking the start of unwinding 1.66 million barrels a day of cuts originally planned to last through 2026. The move follows the bloc’s surprise early return of 2.2 million barrels, which rattled markets but highlighted the alliance’s determination to expand supply despite a looming surplus. Crude prices are down 12% this year on rising output and weaker demand from Trump’s trade war, yet resilience in the market has emboldened Saudi Arabia and Russia to keep pushing barrels back online.

While OPEC remains confident that the economic fundamentals are strong enough to absorb more barrels, this is only a modest increase. Oil prices are definitely going President Trump’s way in his second term, as he wants energy prices lower to help ease inflation that tariffs are likely to stimulate. The relative weakness of the demand side of the equation has suppressed crude prices, but considering OPEC’s output hikes, it remains fairly impressive that they’re trading just below the midpoint of the last 12-18 months. We feel it’s too early to buy crude oil with the powers that be increasing supply, but it will be interesting to see how it reacts to this new, widely anticipated, output hike.

We believe crude is becoming increasingly resilient to “bad news” and looks interesting in to further weakness.
OOO
MM is neutral towards crude oil around $US65/barrel."

Not Held
No plan to Buy