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Online trader begs for help after his short goes south

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I don't use chart patterns! I look at charts to work out support/resistance zones and supply/demand, but I don't say "WOW A WEDGE!" or "THIS LOOKS LIKE THE GREEK GOD ZEUS". Fundamentals play a large part in my trading.
 
Valued said:
I don't use chart patterns! I look at charts to work out support/resistance zones and supply/demand, but I don't say "WOW A WEDGE!" or "THIS LOOKS LIKE THE GREEK GOD ZEUS". Fundamentals play a large part in my trading.
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My sincere apologies, although I must say that normally I'd include your approach under the same umbrellai.e. chart analysis.
 
Caveroute said:
Isn't that an oxymoron ?

If your looking at charts your doing qualitative pattern analysis are you not ?
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Chart patterns refer to shapes like triangles/wedges and that sort of thing. That's how I interpret chart patterns. Charts really just represent price and volume. I could make trades based on a list of the high, low, open and close as well as the volume but that's a very inconvenient way to trade given that this is not how the information is presented to me from my broker. Candlesticks represent the best way to get that information. I am interested in the ATR and I am interested in where there has been a lot of volume in trading and at what price levels. I am interested in what the trend is as well. Charts represent this information in convenient format, but with practice the same information could be interpreted and applied simply from a list in an excel spreadsheet. Trends arn't based on charts, trends are simply whether the price has gone up or down. You could figure that out with a big list of prices. I do that with bond yields, I tend to just look at the list of yields since that's how it's presented to me on the treasury website. There are charts to track the yield curves but I am now used to just looking at the list.

With patterns like triangles I think you would need to be a genius to state that a triangle is forming from raw data in a spreadsheet. Maybe it could be done, I have never tried. I also don't care since the fact that there is a triangle is irrelevant. The triangle is a mere by-product of supply/demand and the triangle is not a trading signal or all that useful.
 

Do you have pre planned price when you enter a trade where you consider the trade is wrong and will cut it?
 
Trembling Hand said:
Do you have pre planned price when you enter a trade where you consider the trade is wrong and will cut it?
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No, quite unnecessary with my approach to trading.

Edit: It occurs to me that I've now shifted two threads away from topic with this discussion and am thinking that it may be worthwhile to shift this to a more relevant thread.
 
cynic said:
No, quite unnecessary with my approach to trading.

Edit: It occurs to me that I've now shifted two threads away from topic with this discussion and am thinking that it may be worthwhile to shift this to a more relevant thread.
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Honest noob here - how do you manage risk over a short time frame without referencing the price ? Or are you accepting that for a long position you can go to 0 and you do not do direct shorts ? (or do long puts where you fully accept you can go to 0 ?)

I understand how value investors like craft can ignore price, but trading over the short term how do you make do ignoring it ?
 

A time stop would be one example. Whatever the price does, you sell after n bars. Quite legitimate.
 

I admire your modesty. Your post already demonstrates a greater understanding than many of the self professed experts that I've encountered over the years. Until about a year and a half ago, approximately 70% of my annual income was derived from trading using my personally tailored methods, so I'm reluctant to disclose specifics, as I do not wish to jeopardise my edge.

Interestingly enough, your very own post shows that you are already aware of a sufficient range of market instruments that would enable one to trade relatively safely without the need for stop orders!
 
cynic said:
In all your years of trading, do you really expect me to believe that you don't already know the answer!
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Well since you are trying to be mystical and secretive while still trying to be involved in a forum discussion then I will put it more directly. If you take a position and not know the 'normal' level where you will puke how can you have any confidence that you are not setting yourself up for a run straight to ruin?
 

Simple. Keep up to date records on the maximum possible drawdown across the entire portfolio to ensure that risk of ruin isn't being inadvertently invited!
 
Modest said:
First we lose the Duck


Now we lose the tribal trading elder


ffs
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Not sure why. Cynic has been on this forum since 2011. TH has read many of his posts. It's an odd time to leave now!

Cynic TH was so offended by your risk management he left! :
 
I did not believe this story at first. How Joe Campbell get into this situation? I guess it has all been documented via the link and the following discussions.

I am very afraid of shorts. I am too uneducated: working out when a stock will fall and thus take out a short. When does someone know their limits or where their limits of understanding of trading?

Trying to following this thread, it only confirms that I don't even know what I do not know. Did Joe pick the wrong stock? Was it bad timing because some unexpected fantastic news made it rocket up?

Is this "mistake" very easy to repeat? Should I leverage a short or two on some random stock and see if I can beat his losses? Has anyone experienced a "Short Squeeze"? Rather than tell me what is a short squeeze, please tell me the emotions you were feeling as you scrambled to cover your positions. Joe Campbell didn't even get a chance I think.

I am trying not to criticises Joe Campbell, could I be capable of repeating his "mistake"? I nearly never trade over the short term. I have never shorted a stock yet. If I was desperate, would I be driven to repeat the same actions of Joe Campbell? If I was very desperate, would I ignore risks because I am too focused on rewards? What drive any of us to make theses "mistakes"?
 
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