Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Oil price discussion and analysis

Joined
31 March 2015
Posts
472
Reactions
853
POO looks to have reached a critical juncture and a counter trend rally looks to be on the cards. Weekly Elliott Wave count shows it to have completed a zigzag pattern from the 8th March top. I am looking for a rally to about 110 if this works out.

tvc_4eb99c9209677310e245bcaa0a5298fa.png

Drilling down to the daily chart and zooming in on the EW count, The decline from the 14 June counter trend peak looks to be a completed impulse. That's my favoured wave count. How can we be sure it's correct? Well we can't but we can add some weight to the analysis with some Hurst cycles analysis and price projections.

tvc_fccfa4254c75747e5e98ddf0e58d61fa.png

Both the weekly and daily Hurst cycles price projection ranges have been met. So that does not mean to take a bullish trade once price trades within these ranges. Firstly we need momentum indicator confirmation.

CL_weekly PP.png


CL_daily PP.png


I believe we have that momentum confirmation at this point, and a long maybe justified with a stop just below the last low of 85.77
 

Attachments

  • CL Daily.xls
    660 KB · Views: 3

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
Joined
2 January 2006
Posts
11,635
Reactions
5,033
POO looks to have reached a critical juncture and a counter trend rally looks to be on the cards. Weekly Elliott Wave count shows it to have completed a zigzag pattern from the 8th March top. I am looking for a rally to about 110 if this works out.

View attachment 145879

Drilling down to the daily chart and zooming in on the EW count, The decline from the 14 June counter trend peak looks to be a completed impulse. That's my favoured wave count. How can we be sure it's correct? Well we can't but we can add some weight to the analysis with some Hurst cycles analysis and price projections.

View attachment 145880

Both the weekly and daily Hurst cycles price projection ranges have been met. So that does not mean to take a bullish trade once price trades within these ranges. Firstly we need momentum indicator confirmation.

View attachment 145876


View attachment 145877


I believe we have that momentum confirmation at this point, and a long maybe justified with a stop just below the last low of 85.77
Thanks @gartley

Great charts.

All I can see from the top chart is the imminent beginning of a Wave 3.

gg
 
Joined
31 March 2015
Posts
472
Reactions
853
Thanks @gartley

Great charts.

All I can see from the top chart is the imminent beginning of a Wave 3.

gg
Thanks. There is an error which I was too late to ammend. The weekly price projection on the chart should read 81.7-88.73 not 73.79 to 81.7. So far so good let's see what happens! Wave Y ( or C's) are akin to wave 3's many times
 

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
POO looks to have reached a critical juncture and a counter trend rally looks to be on the cards. Weekly Elliott Wave count shows it to have completed a zigzag pattern from the 8th March top. I am looking for a rally to about 110 if this works out.
Resistance may but a halt to that rally today? US economics suggest that Oil and Gasoline a bit of a mixed bag if not in the red;

1661387238091.png

If I didn't know any better this and any other economics may call for Oil to retrace in the near term. Not saying that Oil won't fight back, but statistics like this may put a damper on future movement. Imo:2twocents
 

Attachments

  • 1661386689537.png
    1661386689537.png
    10.1 KB · Views: 2
Joined
31 March 2015
Posts
472
Reactions
853
Resistance may but a halt to that rally today? US economics suggest that Oil and Gasoline a bit of a mixed bag if not in the red;

View attachment 145926

If I didn't know any better this and any other economics may call for Oil to retrace in the near term. Not saying that Oil won't fight back, but statistics like this may put a damper on future movement. Imo:2twocents
Anything is possible we know that. But generally I tend to stay away from macro/ economic nuances as it's too much to focus on both. Not only that news can be interpreted in different ways by the market , too bloody hard.
Who knows what makes prices move as long as they move.
My wave maybe incorrect and you could be right, but the price projection have been met so we should get a bit of a bounce up here.
This offers a short term long but more importantly a chance to position for the next leg down.
 

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
Anything is possible we know that. But generally I tend to stay away from macro/ economic nuances as it's too much to focus on both. Not only that news can be interpreted in different ways by the market , too bloody hard.
Who knows what makes prices move as long as they move.
My wave maybe incorrect and you could be right, but the price projection have been met so we should get a bit of a bounce up here.
This offers a short term long but more importantly a chance to position for the next leg down.
Fair call, respect your insight to market analysis. i too take the notion of future high, looking 104 range in the nearest term though?
 
Joined
31 March 2015
Posts
472
Reactions
853
We never know if will make money when we take trade ever so I tend to focus on risk management more.
I usually break my trade I into two parts or two trades. I take partial profits or exit the first half has reached 1.5 times the daily ATR.
That's has almost been reached now so if it does I will move the remaining portion to break even.
As for how far it will go I should think between the 38.2 and 61% retracement from the peak. 50% is 104 as you say and 61% is 110.
Either way I will then do a price projection analysis using the 3hr and that should tell us approx how far it will travel. But need to wait a bit first
 

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
We never know if will make money when we take trade ever so I tend to focus on risk management more.
I usually break my trade I into two parts or two trades. I take partial profits or exit the first half has reached 1.5 times the daily ATR.
That's has almost been reached now so if it does I will move the remaining portion to break even.
As for how far it will go I should think between the 38.2 and 61% retracement from the peak. 50% is 104 as you say and 61% is 110.
Either way I will then do a price projection analysis using the 3hr and that should tell us approx how far it will travel. But need to wait a bit first
Good luck with that, it sounds believable and ambitious, I look forward to see oil reach 104 in the shorter term and 110 in the long run... Have a good one!
:cool:
 

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
Watching the last leg higher from $87.50 – $95.75, which broke out of the downtrend. The previous two days of trade last week continue to paint a bullish picture for oil as we have now seen a retracement and a new HL. Today’s price action so far has continued to catch our attention, as it looks like buyers are trying to get a new move going.

From here, we would like to see a break of Friday’s high and a new move back to test resistance at $95.80 – $96. A break of those resistance points could start suggesting that we have a new short-term uptrend underway.

If we see a new move lower that closes below last Friday’s low, this would be a worry that seller numbers are still very high. A new move below $90 would most likely cancel out bullish momentum in the short term.

 
Joined
14 February 2005
Posts
13,215
Reactions
11,517
Where to now?
A key issue at present is Europe (including the UK).

Whilst gas is the primary problem, ultimately they're desperate for anything that burns and oil fits the bill.

So we're likely to see some ongoing use of oil (and coal) in lieu of gas. Sweden put an oil-fired power station back into operation recently and there's plenty more like that, collectively burning rather a lot of oil thus adding to demand.

On the other side of the coin, the economic fallout from the situation there may dampen demand for vehicle fuels etc simply because consumers can't afford to drive anywhere, their funds being drained trying to keep warm at home. :2twocents
 

over9k

But first, let me consult my goldfish
Joined
12 June 2020
Posts
3,977
Reactions
4,529
On the other side of the coin, the economic fallout from the situation there may dampen demand for vehicle fuels etc simply because consumers can't afford to drive anywhere, their funds being drained trying to keep warm at home. :2twocents
Aka demand elasticity, or "you can only squeeze them for so much".
 

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
Joined
2 January 2006
Posts
11,635
Reactions
5,033
A key issue at present is Europe (including the UK)........
On the other side of the coin, the economic fallout from the situation there may dampen demand for vehicle fuels etc simply because consumers can't afford to drive anywhere, their funds being drained trying to keep warm at home. :2twocents
That was not the (and my shared) "lived experience" of many young Europeans during the last oil crisis in the 70's.

Nothing worse than being home in the cold with old rellies whingeing. Beg, borrow or steal fuel just to get out. Demographics may have changed since then.

gg
 
Joined
20 December 2021
Posts
186
Reactions
429
A key issue at present is Europe (including the UK).

Whilst gas is the primary problem, ultimately they're desperate for anything that burns and oil fits the bill.

So we're likely to see some ongoing use of oil (and coal) in lieu of gas. Sweden put an oil-fired power station back into operation recently and there's plenty more like that, collectively burning rather a lot of oil thus adding to demand.

On the other side of the coin, the economic fallout from the situation there may dampen demand for vehicle fuels etc simply because consumers can't afford to drive anywhere, their funds being drained trying to keep warm at home. :2twocents
China’s ongoing lockdowns and global slowdown concerns have also played a big part in creating this dull outlook for demand. Oil prices have fallen for 3 months straight as a result, the first time since early 2020.

Buyers did step-in last month to support WTI as it neared the 2021 highs above $84, a possible signal that demand is still expected to remain stronger than it was during the pandemic. This could help prices form a low around the current levels, and potentially attempt to rebound.

Of course, all trading carries risk, and the ability to hold this support will likely depend on whether or not traders think recession fears have been fully priced-in.
 
Top