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NBN Rollout Scrapped

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FTTN is currently being built in my town and it looks like I have lost out with Turnbulls NBN lottery. I will be 800-900m from the node so won't be much of an upgrade. It really is a poorly planned expensive waste to spend so much money on a project that people will see such vast differences in results which makes upgrading a lot more difficult in the future. There will be some time in the future where 20mbps won't cut it, the problem is you're going to have some people on 20mbps whilst many others on 50mbps plus in which case we either spend big $ upgrading to FTTP or we spend big dollars on adding more nodes so that more people are within close proximity to a node.

Two major broken promises

  1. The network will be built by 2016
  2. Everyone would have access to at least 25mbps
 
Tisme said:
NBN Corporate plan $56bn with $20bn loan/equity topped up from Mathius in Nov 2016

in the words of Ziggy in 12th Dec 2013: "It would reduce costs and bring forward revenues, reducing peak funding from an estimated $73bn to $41bn under the revised outlook."

That what you pay the big bucks for, expert costings that are blowout by 1.37 times in less time than two years later.
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You need to first substantiate the basis of your $100bn figure before moving on to other numbers.

For the fifth time, on what information do you base that figure ?
 
drsmith said:
You need to first substantiate the basis of your $100bn figure before moving on to other numbers.

For the fifth time, on what information do you base that figure ?
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Maybe he used the same calculator the coalition used when calculating Labors FTTP NBN cost during the 2013 election, of course those figures turned out to be heavily inflated. 2016 and still no promised NBN to half the country.
 
overhang said:
Maybe he used the same calculator the coalition used when calculating Labors FTTP NBN cost during the 2013 election, of course those figures turned out to be heavily inflated. 2016 and still no promised NBN to half the country.
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You could always ask Tisme by PM if you like.

Based on his responses so far in this thread, I don't fancy your chances getting the answer.
 
overhang said:
Maybe he used the same calculator the coalition used when calculating Labors FTTP NBN cost during the 2013 election, of course those figures turned out to be heavily inflated. 2016 and still no promised NBN to half the country.
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Nothing as clever as that, just some common sense apolitical observation based on practical experience with govt projects and very basic statistical prediction modelling. Not being a highly paid Liberal Party rocket scientist means my crystal ball has been and will continue to be more realistic than the deliberately understated crowd pleasing cost in the report.

Secondly I actually have decades of commercial, practical engineering and installation experience in comms, automation, light pipes, etc. Of course being at the coal face is nothing when you can get your smarts from Newscorp, the LNP , sympathetic web articles and glossy magazines.

The figure so far is the anticipated ceiling govt equity amount of $56bn, which is ~twice the 2013 electoral promise amount. The gross cost of the NBN itself is a different figure that is expected to diverge from the govt equity as sales revenue is ploughed back into capital expediture. The NBN predicted revenue is based on predicted uptake, which can't be enforced until the DSlams are turned off and so far their predictions have been way off..... as the old saying went "almost criminal".:rolleyes:

As of 25 Feb :

2646158 premises ready for hard connection service or have cable running in the vicinity. Got to feel sorry for the satellite and wireless premises = 878307 which is no small figure
 
Peak funding is represented by the sum of capital expenditure to build the network and operating cash flow. This is outlined on page 47 of the 2017 corporate plan.

http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco2/documents/nbn-corporate-plan-2017.pdf

It is expected to reach $48.6bn by June 30 2020 by which time the rollout is expected to be complete. How much peak funding rises beyond that will depend on the operating cash flow of the business.
 
Having now reached the three quarter mark in the financial year to June 30 2017, it's perhaps time to review the progress of the rollout.

4,531,300 premises have now been passed as at March 30 leaving 910,700 to be passed to reach the June 30 target of 5,442k in the 2016 corporate plan. The average weekly rate required to reach this target over the next 13 weeks to June 29 is 70,054. The rollout over the last 7 weeks to March 30 has passed 439,214 premises at an average rate of 62,745 per week. The average rate over the 13 weeks from Dec 29 to March 30 is 59,448 per week.

This progress indicates that if the rollout falls short of the June 30 2017 target above, it will only be by a small margin.
 
drsmith said:
Having now reached the three quarter mark in the financial year to June 30 2017, it's perhaps time to review the progress of the rollout.

4,531,300 premises have now been passed as at March 30 leaving 910,700 to be passed to reach the June 30 target of 5,442k in the 2016 corporate plan. The average weekly rate required to reach this target over the next 13 weeks to June 29 is 70,054. The rollout over the last 7 weeks to March 30 has passed 439,214 premises at an average rate of 62,745 per week. The average rate over the 13 weeks from Dec 29 to March 30 is 59,448 per week.

This progress indicates that if the rollout falls short of the June 30 2017 target above, it will only be by a small margin.
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I can't fault the work ethic of the NBN workers at ground level. They've been working long hours, 8-7PM and even as late as 9pm, working Sundays too. So it's good to see their hard work is making progress. The interesting thing is that last year they seemed to shift the rollout schedule, all of a sudden places such as mine that had no date were being built a few months later and other places that had a date marked for the next 6 months have been put back years.

I have heard though that NBN co are targeting areas they can roll out FTTN faster which is regional areas where they generally aren't contending with concrete path ways over their node positions and problematic traffic. If this is true their ambitious roll-out targets are likely to hit a few snags later in the roll-out but politically speaking might be late enough that it won't hurt Turnbull at the 2019 election given they would still have a year to complete the roll out post election.
 
overhang said:
I can't fault the work ethic of the NBN workers at ground level. They've been working long hours, 8-7PM and even as late as 9pm, working Sundays too. So it's good to see their hard work is making progress. The interesting thing is that last year they seemed to shift the rollout schedule, all of a sudden places such as mine that had no date were being built a few months later and other places that had a date marked for the next 6 months have been put back years.

I have heard though that NBN co are targeting areas they can roll out FTTN faster which is regional areas where they generally aren't contending with concrete path ways over their node positions and problematic traffic. If this is true their ambitious roll-out targets are likely to hit a few snags later in the roll-out but politically speaking might be late enough that it won't hurt Turnbull at the 2019 election given they would still have a year to complete the roll out post election.
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Have you compared connection ready to cable roughed in data?
 
overhang said:
I can't fault the work ethic of the NBN workers at ground level. They've been working long hours, 8-7PM and even as late as 9pm, working Sundays too. So it's good to see their hard work is making progress. The interesting thing is that last year they seemed to shift the rollout schedule, all of a sudden places such as mine that had no date were being built a few months later and other places that had a date marked for the next 6 months have been put back years.

I have heard though that NBN co are targeting areas they can roll out FTTN faster which is regional areas where they generally aren't contending with concrete path ways over their node positions and problematic traffic. If this is true their ambitious roll-out targets are likely to hit a few snags later in the roll-out but politically speaking might be late enough that it won't hurt Turnbull at the 2019 election given they would still have a year to complete the roll out post election.
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There's no doubt that 2017/18 will be the acid test as they have to sustain an average of 70k premises per week to reach the June 30 2018 target of 9.1m (9,062k in 2016 corporate plan). That being said, HFC should be in full swing which should help boost the numbers. There's some scope for catch up in 2018/19 if June 30 2018 falls a little short.

If they've continued to set internal targets that are more aggressive than their publically published targets, a few snags shouldn't be a problem as they haven't been thus far relative to the delays identified in leaks of internal targets from early last year.
 
Latest word from inside the tent is that the rollout will reach the June 30 4017 target of 5,442k premises passed with perhaps a little to spare.

Mr Ryan said NBN would make a further one million premises ready for service by the end of the financial year.

"The reality is, the only way you make one million FTTP RFS (ready for service) in three months in Australia – is to leverage existing network assets," he said.

"The other exciting point for me to make here is that nearly every home in this country is either in build, design or construction."
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The rollout had passed 4,531,300 premises as at March 30 2017.

http://www.afr.com/technology/web/n...es-to-fibretodriveway-rollout-20170410-gvi9y0

Also of interest in the above is the FTTdp footprint is to be expanded by a further 300k taking that footprint to one million.
 
drsmith said:
5,442k premises passed
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Regardless of how many premises are being passed, those numbers mean diddly-squat. In areas like our suburb where FTTN is planned - and we're still only scheduled for the second quarter 2018 - the copper between node and premises is still a very limiting factor. New cables have been put in between Exchange and roadside nodes less than ten years ago, but the conduits from there to homes are badly corroded and frequently flooded, rendering even simple phone calls scratchy and unreliable; ADSL 2+ doesn't stand a chance. It's the final leg that needs to be replaced. Otherwise, a large portion of several thousand premises in our suburb might as well stay with 4G wireless and make do with speeds between 1 and 10 Mbps.
 
Junior said:
We have Optus 4G wireless and download speeds are generally around 10Mbps.

I'm wondering how quick 5G wireless will be? NBN infrastructure may well end up being a monumental waste of $$$ if wireless continues to become quicker and quicker.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/g...g/news-story/f0d7227b7cbc95630c768bee8b17e854
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No doubt about that.
FTTH was the best solution at the time it was conceived. It needed to be rolled out at speed, so the Nation could reap the benefits within a reasonably short time.
Projected transmission speeds would well have been sufficient for a great many users for years to come, but users who wanted more could upgrade to 5G and any other technology yet to be invented.
In technology, the next step up is always just around the corner; but I would argue that FTTH might well have encouraged companies to increase speeds on fibre - if only it had been made available within a reasonable time frame. The politicking and bickering have turned a great initial concept into a soon-to-be monumental White Elephant and waste of $Billions, regardless of final mode of implementation.
 

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