MQG - Macquarie Group

serp · 2 June 2005

Hi first time poster long time reader, I've only started getting into the sharemarket game about 3 months ago, I have decided to watch the market for about about a year before I start putting my hard earned into it, I would say I spend at least 2 to 3 hours a day reading/analysing etc. ANYWAY...

I've been watching the banking sector quite keenly and I'm wondering where everyone thinks MBLs price will end up before the end of the year? Its constantly making higher gains than most other banks and I through my research (so far) I can't understand why it has such huge standings in the market.

I'm also interested to here your thought on MBL compared to other bank stocks and wonder where you think the majors and the other investment banks will be towards year end.

This is such a wonderful site, I hope to post more and read a lot more here in the future!

Milk Man · 2 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

Welcome serp
great bunch of guys here hey

I don't know if you are a terrible anarchist or a funny-mental as yet but from a technical outlook it may be making a double top. It'll be nice to see if it busts on through that high!

Milk Man · 2 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

loakglen said:
Welcome serp
great bunch of guys here hey

I don't know if you are a terrible anarchist or a funny-mental as yet but from a technical outlook it may be making a double top. It'll be nice to see if it busts on through that high!

looks like it has! didn't download yesterdy

DTM · 2 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

Hi all, just trying something out. Looks like hocus pocus and I'm not sure what the heck it is...., I'm just experimenting so please don't ask me questions about it because I don't know what it is, and although am risking public humiliation and embarressment, I am still willing to try things out in the market in the remote chance of finding something useful.

Using MBL weekly charts, red circles are projected turning points in the future, ie resistance points, and blue circles support.

RichKid · 2 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

Nothing wrong with experimenting DTM, always good to keep things simple though imho.
Here's the longterm chart to put things in perspective- what a run!! Might be a good time to buy on the pull back as that previous high is holding. Not sure how vulnerable MBL is to a stockmarket downturn, maybe it's listed investment vehcles (MAP, MIG etc) will be stable rather than stellar performers.

ob1kenobi · 3 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

RichKid said:
Nothing wrong with experimenting DTM, always good to keep things simple though imho.
Here's the longterm chart to put things in perspective- what a run!! Might be a good time to buy on the pull back as that previous high is holding. Not sure how vulnerable MBL is to a stockmarket downturn, maybe it's listed investment vehcles (MAP, MIG etc) will be stable rather than stellar performers.

I agree. I've had MBL on a watchlist for awhile but haven't been certain that they would be value for money. I think they continue as a strong performer because of their role in the market as a major merchant / investment bank, its own publicity and the specialised funds (eg MAP, MCG, etc). It may be that they are well run also! I'm still waiting to see where it goes but no stock is impervious to a downturn.

serp · 3 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

loakglen said:
Welcome serp
great bunch of guys here hey

I don't know if you are a terrible anarchist or a funny-mental as yet but from a technical outlook it may be making a double top. It'll be nice to see if it busts on through that high!

I think its burst on through that high now, I'll be interested to see what happens next week. Up 4% since monday though!

TjamesX · 3 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

Wow DTM.... those charts have reminded me why I only use 'limited' TA in my share investing - my head is still hurting.

MBL are not exposed to the same risks that the traditional banks are - so they need to be viewed differently. Where they generate their revenue streams from is very different. I did happen to read my parents super plan written by a financial planner, it proposed Maquarie wrap accounts - essentially move your share portfolio into a their wrap account, and they'll charge you 0.8% or so on the total value of portfolio per year.....nice..... Note that the fin planner was taking around 1% on total portfolio value as well, just for putting them into the wrap accounts.....nice..... everyone gets their bit along the way....Further note, there are managed funds recommended under the wrap account, they have their own management fees associated. Needless to say they havent implemented the 'plan'

I reckon youd be 2-3% down before you even got off the blocks!

This is relevant because Maqurie are moving to more mum & dad revenue streams especially through super - they're leveraging off their name and the fact that they make squillions doing their 'real' business of investment banking. this healps smooth out the more volatile revenue associated with investment banking business.

I don't hold MBL but I do hold ARG (Argo - LIC). Argo's largest shareholding is in MBL (around 190mill) a nice way to get some exposure.

TJ

serp · 6 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

Geez its nearly up a $1 in this mornings trade, I picked this break out (thats what its called right?) on paper just as it was turning $45, god I wish I was past my self imposed probationary period for that one!

serp · 6 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

wow nearly up a $1.40 today. I think the resistance barrier has been well and truly broken

TjamesX · 10 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

Article from airview stating that MBL are being rerated to outperform by CFSB. MBL are uniquely positioned to take advantage of private money going into infrastructure.

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2039

CSFB have a target price of $70

TjamesX · 10 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

...........and so MBL are up $2.27 or 4% so far today, current price is $57.48

serp · 10 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

Up over $3 gain for today with a few minutes of trading left, I wonder if its still going to keep climbing like a mad man or readjust any time soon?

RichKid · 14 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

A very steep climb, I think people are getting excited. With the all ords near all time highs I expect a pullback at some stage as the bluechips get hit in a downturn, too late to enter now imo unless you have very very tight stops. Maybe BNB will ride MBL's coat tails.

serp · 14 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

A lot of activity today on MBL, went up over the $60 mark then some profit taking occured I guess, still finished with a small gain though.

DTM · 17 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

RichKid said:
A very steep climb, I think people are getting excited. With the all ords near all time highs I expect a pullback at some stage as the bluechips get hit in a downturn, too late to enter now imo unless you have very very tight stops. Maybe BNB will ride MBL's coat tails.

I agree with you Rich. Seems to be a lot of hype in the market and definitely a lot of greed. I'm bullish on MBL and bought call options on it yesterday as it retested my support line but didn't break it. Today it moved up well and am hoping for a bit more on Monday. I am hoping the US markets won't fall tonight (its ready to fall soon). I am bearish on the US markets and am hoping to get a few more up days there so that I can look to get out of MBL on Monday.

I've attached a chart of MBL showing where my resistace turned into support.

RichKid · 17 June 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

DTM said:
I agree with you Rich. Seems to be a lot of hype in the market and definitely a lot of greed. I'm bullish on MBL and bought call options on it yesterday as it retested my support line but didn't break it. Today it moved up well and am hoping for a bit more on Monday. I am hoping the US markets won't fall tonight (its ready to fall soon). I am bearish on the US markets and am hoping to get a few more up days there so that I can look to get out of MBL on Monday.

I've attached a chart of MBL showing where my resistace turned into support.

Hope you make some dough out of this one DTM, beware of that big candle and the steepness of the climb. Brokers have targets of $70 on this but I don't see why it should happen overnight. Hopefull you'll get out of this before it retraces. Good luck!

TjamesX · 28 July 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

Quarterly results are in and MBL is edging towards $65

$70 isn't looking so far away now

resourceful_man · 1 August 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

serp said:
Geez its nearly up a $1 in this mornings trade, I picked this break out (thats what its called right?) on paper just as it was turning $45, god I wish I was past my self imposed probationary period for that one!

$45 is now the new support level, surely she has to let off some steam ?
MBL will come back to it's support sooner or later.

Julia · 26 September 2005

Re: MBL where will it end?

resourceful_man said:
$45 is now the new support level, surely she has to let off some steam ?
MBL will come back to it's support sooner or later.

How many members are holding MBL?

I'm one happy holder with the SP up $3.97 today to a close of $74.04.

Julia

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