Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Iron Ore - General Commentary

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qldfrog said:
Africa and China != Africa and western countries
At present, you will not see an African government taking a Chinese mining company management group hostage the time to ramp up a new tax.
This mine will work, IMHO the only issue is potential western interest sabotages in the context of a China cold war we are heading in.
Click to expand...
The African govts love the Chinese but we all know how it ends up with Chinese investment, the donor country ends up in more than just debt to China because they can't pay the money back. The govt corruption is the thing that's hard to get rid of in Africa and this is the cause of all the rising coups against current govts. It's a very politically unstable country and the other threat to mining is the rebel groups.
 
More blows for Iron Ore??
From AFR
Westpac has warned that iron ore prices could collapse 30 per cent this year to about $US70 a tonne when Rio Tinto floods the market with fresh supply, deflating hopes of a sustained rebound for Australia’s key export.

The spot price of iron ore rallied nearly 7 per cent last week to $US104.15 a tonne after robust Chinese trade data bolstered hopes that Beijing’s stimulus measures were lifting steel demand.
Click to expand...
1737372632884.png

Mick
 

Iron ore seen steady at $US100 mark through March: Goldman​

Timothy Moore AFR
Share post

Aurelia Waltham, a commodities’ analyst at Goldman Sachs, said she expects the spot price of iron ore to hold steady near $US100 a tonne at least through March.

“We believe that it is too early for a break below $US100/t, and expect prices to remain supported around current levels over the coming weeks. We therefore maintain our H1 2025 average price forecast of $US100/t, with market fundamentals remaining relatively balanced until shifting to oversupply later in the year.

Waltham said weather disruption to Australian shipments is flowing through to arrivals in China, with Chinese port stocks declining by 4 per cent this week. “However, we do not expect a lasting impact on our balance due to surging March shipments.”

“Meanwhile, we do not expect significant near-term cuts to Chinese hot metal output, supporting iron ore consumption. Our base case is that supply reform in 2025 is limited, with Chinese crude steel production declining by just 1 per cent YoY, in line with feedback from mills.

Due to an expected increase in the pig iron/crude steel ratio, this means Goldman sees Chinese iron ore consumption as almost flat this year, she also said.

“We expect the decline in crude steel output to be concentrated in Q4, which, alongside higher iron ore supply, helps to push iron ore stocks back into a period of steep increase, eventually bringing the iron ore price below $US90/t by the end of the year.”
 
Iron extended losses into a sixth day on Wednesday after the White House confirmed it was hiking total tariffs on China to 104 per cent.

In Singapore, the benchmark iron ore futures contract fell 2.7 per cent to $US94.90 a tonne, its lowest level since September.

Prices have plummeted this week as traders fear the dramatic escalation in the trade dispute between China and the US could hurt demand from one of the world’s major iron ore importers. AFR 09/04/25

Not a real flash price, this will cause some grief

Kind regards
rcw1
 
IO and technology:
we saw how China just designed a steel smelter hugely efficient with no need of coking coal and able to treat lower grade
Not good news for coal and IO in australia
A new discovery:
www.scmp.com

China’s fatigue-free alloy breakthrough paves way for aerospace revolution

Study shows Chinese scientists have cracked ‘impossible triangle’ of metal materials to combine strength, plasticity and stability.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
Makes sense, and a potential revolution in engineering.
 
qldfrog said:
IO and technology:
we saw how China just designed a steel smelter hugely efficient with no need of coking coal and able to treat lower grade
Not good news for coal and IO in australia
A new discovery:
www.scmp.com

China’s fatigue-free alloy breakthrough paves way for aerospace revolution

Study shows Chinese scientists have cracked ‘impossible triangle’ of metal materials to combine strength, plasticity and stability.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
Makes sense, and a potential revolution in engineering.
Click to expand...
I know many here will think am a i know it all etc, but the fact is steel properties are based on the presence and shape of crystallization and nodes within the structure.
And this is what happens when you plunge a rod of red hot just melted iron into oil to create internal micro fractures
Giving you a very brittle but very hard metal, etc etc
You then think about samouraï swords or high quality Japanese kitchen knives
Built with multi layers of folded and refolded sheets..keeping ultimately a both flexible, hard and not brittle blade.
My understanding is the (roughly) same concept is applied within the microstructure
I gave the Chinese paper link, but saw that news in an Indian media first.
 
others are working towards a similar outcome...

Key findings from the copper superalloy research include:
  • Enhanced Thermal Stability: The Cu-3Ta-0.5Li alloy remains stable at 800°C for over 10,000 hours, with minimal loss in yield strength.
  • High-Temperature Strength: The alloy outperforms existing commercial copper alloys, achieving a yield strength of 1120 MPa at room temperature.
  • Superior Creep Resistance: Cu-Ta-Li exhibits significantly lower creep deformation compared to conventional Cu-Ta alloys, making it ideal for high-stress, high-temperature environments.
The discovery opens new avenues for the development of next-generation copper alloys for applications in aerospace, energy and defense industries. Potential uses include heat exchangers, high-performance electrical components, weaponry and structural materials requiring durability in extreme conditions.

no surprise, it's US defence research

www.eurekalert.org

Breakthrough copper alloy achieves unprecedented high-temperature performance

A team of researchers from Arizona State University, the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL), Lehigh University and Louisiana State University has developed a groundbreaking high-temperature copper alloy with exceptional thermal stability and mechanical strength. The research team’s findings...
www.eurekalert.org

bgr.com

Researchers Developed An Ultra-Hard New Alloy That Can Survive At 1,400 Degrees - BGR

Researchers have created a new ultra-hard alloy that can survive insane temperatures. Here's what we know about it so far.
bgr.com bgr.com
 
*** stainless steel ***

now is it only stainless steel , or can the process be applied to other steel compounds

stainless is nice , but there other important specialty steels out there

and time will tell is steel without the use of coking coal is the equal of traditional steel
 
qldfrog said:
I know many here will think am a i know it all etc, but the fact is steel properties are based on the presence and shape of crystallization and nodes within the structure.
And this is what happens when you plunge a rod of red hot just melted iron into oil to create internal micro fractures
Giving you a very brittle but very hard metal, etc etc
You then think about samouraï swords or high quality Japanese kitchen knives
Built with multi layers of folded and refolded sheets..keeping ultimately a both flexible, hard and not brittle blade.
My understanding is the (roughly) same concept is applied within the microstructure
I gave the Chinese paper link, but saw that news in an Indian media first.
Click to expand...
@qldfrog Mr frog you a know-all never.
Just a well informed bloke who is sharing info
.Just saying.................
 
This news:
www.aumanufacturing.com.au

Sydney company signs $1.6bn order for new Whyalla steelworks - Australian Manufacturing Forum

Greensteel Australia has signed a $1.6 billion order for a “next-generation” steel mill to be built in Italy as it advances its plan to take over the troubled Whyalla steelworks. The Sydney-based company finalised the deal with Italian firm Danieli at a contract signing in Adelaide on Sunday...
www.aumanufacturing.com.au www.aumanufacturing.com.au
A company already 1.3 billions in debts...
So genuinely, where is the scam, who are these guys and where does the money come from....
It smells rot even from the name: greensteel...
Anyone actually knows?
As long as taxpayers and Australian companies are not involved: all good, some scraps will fall back in: hotel & travels here, some studies,etc before the next administrator fees but usually not so clean.....
 
There may be some buying opportunities coming up, for the iron ore bulls.

www.afr.com

China steel demand slump an ‘ominous’ sign for ASX miners

The latest data from the world’s second-largest economy does not bode well for the ASX’s iron ore giants.
www.afr.com www.afr.com

A collapse in Chinese steel demand to its lowest levels in eight years is an “ominous” sign for the ASX’s mining giants that the worst may not be over for the already beaten-down materials sector.

Steel rebar futures in China, a key indicator of construction activity, slumped to the lowest level since 2017 at the end of last week, as the world’s second-largest economy continues to grapple with a prolonged property sector crisis and waning industrial output.
 
sptrawler said:
There may be some buying opportunities coming up, for the iron ore bulls.

www.afr.com

China steel demand slump an ‘ominous’ sign for ASX miners

The latest data from the world’s second-largest economy does not bode well for the ASX’s iron ore giants.
www.afr.com www.afr.com

A collapse in Chinese steel demand to its lowest levels in eight years is an “ominous” sign for the ASX’s mining giants that the worst may not be over for the already beaten-down materials sector.

Steel rebar futures in China, a key indicator of construction activity, slumped to the lowest level since 2017 at the end of last week, as the world’s second-largest economy continues to grapple with a prolonged property sector crisis and waning industrial output.
Click to expand...
awesome , i have three smaller players on my shopping list ( for extra shares ) ... oh and a low-ball order for extra FMG , but i think i will need a lot of help from the short-sellers to get them

but don't panic India and South Korea will soak up some of that slack
 

An Unexpected Diversifier – Iron Ore​

Rebecca Kaufman
Senior Associate, Commodities, Real & Digital Assets
S&P Dow Jones Indices


Executive Summary
  • Commodities are often considered for their diversification benefits compared to traditional balanced compositions.
  • A small weighting of 4%-9% of iron ore has historically increased Sharpe ratios by 7%-19%.
  • Iron ore’s historically persistent backwardation provided excess returns.
Commodities’ Role as Diversifiers
Commodities, such as gold, crude oil and copper, have historically served as a potential hedge with low or negative correlation with traditional assets such as stocks and bonds. The ability for commodities to keep pace with inflation, while offsetting large negative returns from other asset classes during market stresses, has drawn more interest to explore the diversification benefits of alternative commodities. Iron ore, which is a key ingredient for steel production, has seen its physical market size grow in the past decade to become the second-largest commodity by value, only behind crude oil. Driven by steel demand from economies seeking to industrialize, iron ore became one of the leading global barometers for economic activity, attracting investors seeking exposure to this trend. This has fueled the growth of the futures market, which has grown in open interest and volume, attracting hedgers, speculators and financial institutio

​

FDownload Full Article
 
ShareSuccess said:

An Unexpected Diversifier – Iron Ore​

Rebecca Kaufman
Senior Associate, Commodities, Real & Digital Assets
S&P Dow Jones Indices


Executive Summary
  • Commodities are often considered for their diversification benefits compared to traditional balanced compositions.
  • A small weighting of 4%-9% of iron ore has historically increased Sharpe ratios by 7%-19%.
  • Iron ore’s historically persistent backwardation provided excess returns.
Commodities’ Role as Diversifiers
Commodities, such as gold, crude oil and copper, have historically served as a potential hedge with low or negative correlation with traditional assets such as stocks and bonds. The ability for commodities to keep pace with inflation, while offsetting large negative returns from other asset classes during market stresses, has drawn more interest to explore the diversification benefits of alternative commodities. Iron ore, which is a key ingredient for steel production, has seen its physical market size grow in the past decade to become the second-largest commodity by value, only behind crude oil. Driven by steel demand from economies seeking to industrialize, iron ore became one of the leading global barometers for economic activity, attracting investors seeking exposure to this trend. This has fueled the growth of the futures market, which has grown in open interest and volume, attracting hedgers, speculators and financial institutio

​

FDownload Full Article
Click to expand...
now one ( so far ) over-looked demand for iron/steel is .... data centres , each one of those centres needs a concrete slab floor ( which means reinforcing mesh ) , steel for the walls ( and probably for the roof )) , fasteners etc etc ( and that assumes all the power will be supplied by underground power cables , otherwise you need more power poles as well)
 
divs4ever said:
now one ( so far ) over-looked demand for iron/steel is .... data centres , each one of those centres needs a concrete slab floor ( which means reinforcing mesh ) , steel for the walls ( and probably for the roof )) , fasteners etc etc ( and that assumes all the power will be supplied by underground power cables , otherwise you need more power poles as well)
Click to expand...
If these data centres are going to sput a floor under anything, it will be copper.
There would be far more copper going into these data centres.
Mick
 

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