over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
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Yeah it's been a WILD recovery:Glad I asked you.
Admittedly, I'm pretty lazy that the option of not doing anything was already high.
But it's because of this.It is difficult to make any decisions with the Trump rapid action coursing through all fundamentals. One of his aims was to have a strong $USD which seems difficult to imagine given his other decisions.
gg
If nato actually wanted to stop the russians, it could. Think about how much of a fight the ukrainians have put up and not to take anything away from them but considering most are conscripts etc and they're fighting with the west's hand-me-down weapons then you can only imagine what a well trained and well equipped western force would do to its russian counterpart.What would happen, if China and North Korea went all in with Russia, to take on Europe?
some of those was what i was hinting at , add in Japan if Trump down-sized some of those military bases some nations would have a terrible economy ( all those military dudes spend some cash locally )Well there is also the EU nations that have been relying on US aid, not in direct monetary terms, but in the fact they have spent nothing on defence for years.
Trump highlighted it the first time he was in office and now the EU is in a position of being exposed to the Russia/Ukraine issue and having limited resources to deal with it.
As is being shown with the optical cable cuts and the lack of fire power.
What would happen, if China and North Korea went all in with Russia, to take on Europe? Does the EU have any way of countering it?
Interesting times.
NATO has sent all it's obsolete gear to Ukraine already , the cupboard of reserve gear is rather bareIf nato actually wanted to stop the russians, it could. Think about how much of a fight the ukrainians have put up and not to take anything away from them but considering most are conscripts etc and they're fighting with the west's hand-me-down weapons then you can only imagine what a well trained and well equipped western force would do to its russian counterpart.
We have an entire generation of battle-hardened afghanistan veterans with all the best equipment in existence at their disposal. It would be a massacre.
Conquering and stopping an invasion are two very different things.NATO has sent all it's obsolete gear to Ukraine already , the cupboard of reserve gear is rather bare
not so important until the retired veterans have to be re-trained with the new stuff ( and all those lights and buttons and stuff )
BTW the Germans thought that as did Napoleon , in 1945 they got all the way to Berlin
so who is the only nation to use nuclear bombs in a war ?Conquering and stopping an invasion are two very different things.
It's not a concern. Really. It's only a concern once they get stomped and realise that nukes are their only option left. Strong countries don't use nukes in the way that strong people don't use guns/knives. You only use the nuke/knife when you know you can't win the conventional fight.
I think I've run the upside on a lot of these stocks to the point that the juice ain't worth the squeeze. I'm seeing limited ability to run much higher right now. Where as the downside % drop could bite. Probably a short lived feeling, but it's hard to pull the trigger when everything looks expensive.Yeah it's been a WILD recovery:
View attachment 193503
But it's because of this.
I've made *no* trades in like 3 weeks just FYI.
I'm just holding. BOIL for a degen play if you want to do something risky. It runs on geopolitical tensions rising.I think I've run the upside on a lot of these stocks to the point that the juice ain't worth the squeeze. I'm seeing limited ability to run much higher right now. Where as the downside % drop could bite. Probably a short lived feeling, but it's hard to pull the trigger when everything looks expensive.
I was thinking a pause for a bit, but it's hard to tell with Trump in command.
AUD now on a tear, comically.AUD dropped below 61 U.S a few hours ago. Recovered since but I reckon we've got maybe a month before we crack the 59's.
Funnily enough I looked at the chart just after my comment and realised I needed to hedge.as it was setting up to run. Now it's just a mater of how high its going to go. I'll have to go mooch off the currency threads experienced members.AUD now on a tear, comically.
famous last wordsNow it's just a mater of how high its going to go.
Forex is legit my Achilles heel. Deep psychology scars from multiple ar5e handings.famous last words
inflation was always coming back , but will it be fast , slow or denied ( like it was previously )Sometimes you just have to take stock and look dispassionately at the situation.
Trump’s moves are contradictory in the extreme. He is neither intelligent nor well educated. He is cunning and a good negotiator but he is out of his depth atm has too many balls in the air. Inflation taking off will be the first domino to fall.
The market will punish. It is what it does.
gg
The first market domino to fall from Trump's meddling with Musk's DOGE in the Treasury Department will be ... Treasuries unsurprisingly.Sometimes you just have to take stock and look dispassionately at the situation.
Trump’s moves are contradictory in the extreme. He is neither intelligent nor well educated. He is cunning and a good negotiator but he is out of his depth atm has too many balls in the air. Inflation taking off will be the first domino to fall.
The market will punish. It is what it does.
gg
the AAA status has been dubious/tenuous for a while ( much like the EU/UK ratings ) now the Japanese are more likely to sell-down for a different reason ( the arbitrage trade ver. 2 ) as would the ( Communist ) Chinese fearing more sanctions/currency war after the freezing of Russian assetsThe first market domino to fall from Trump's meddling with Musk's DOGE in the Treasury Department will be ... Treasuries unsurprisingly.
The Bond market will be punished. The AAA rating of US Bonds will disappear. The Chinese, Japanese and Europeans will sell their US bonds. Interest rates will rise.
gg
Pardon my obsession with natural gasinflation was always coming back
BOIL to degen thisPardon my obsession with natural gasbut US domestic market gas last traded at $4.26
Prices move around day to day a bit but that's up roughly a third from a month ago when price was in the low $3 range eg $3.20 etc.
Noting that international pricing is higher than US domestic pricing, although with the LNG export terminals they're building that gap will close over time. If the gap does close, that should raise the US domestic price to around $12.50 to match the LNG spot price. Bearing in mind that's exactly the direction they're heading in - won't happen overnight but that's the broad direction.
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