Never heard of it, thanks for bringing it to our attention.
IIF seems to stand for Invest In Farming according to their site.
@Joe Blow do you think you'd mind updating the title to include the acronym/name?
It seems like it's essentially forwards (see the difference vs futures here:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/forwardsandfutures.asp) on the settlement price of the commodity (non-deliverable).
The farmer shorts their commodities to you and promises to return you the profits. You are long the settlement price which can fluctuate based on supply/demand/weather/macro conditions. You can expect to profit if the settlement price is higher than what you paid. You can expect to lose money if the settlement price is lower than what you paid.
From their
FAQ
For example, if a farmer shorts 10 boxes of avocados to you:
- You might profit if there is strong demand for avocados due to economic boom
- You might profit if farmers grow not enough avocados and cause undersupply
- You might profit if a storm destroys other avocado crops but not your farmers
- You might make a loss if economic bust reduces demand for avocados
- You might make a loss if farmers grow too many avocados and cause oversupply
- You might make a loss if a storm destroys your farmers avocado crop
From their FAQ
Some things I like about it:
- Get exposure to Aussie Ag commodities which aren't really available on any easily accessible markets
- It's essentially a unlevered forward, so no leverage risks
- The farmer handles the product sale
- There's no concern about making a mistake and ending up needing to take delivery of 400 bushels of wheat or something
Some things I don't like about it:
- Physical markets are not transparently priced, how do you know the farmer is getting the best price for his avocados or trees or whatever. They've already sold the risk to you, what's the incentive for them to get the best price?
- It's not a two way market, you are entirely reliant on IIF pricing each deal with an appropriate risk/reward ratio
- This is really the biggest issue.
- You hopefully get paid to warehouse the farmers forward risk. How do you know the price is right? You don't!
- In each deal you are making concurrent bets on individual commodity prices, market conditions, macro conditions, etc
- Even if you diversify you are still making an aggregate bet on commodity pricing and macro conditions
- Ag commodities are notoriously volatile and this is a long only bet with a 6-12month lockup.
As for your friend making annualised 20% return...what's the timeframe? Futures traded Ags have done exceptionally well off the pandemic lows...are they outperforming the benchmark or just matching it?
(below Invesco Ag ETF (USD) ratio'd to Invesco AUD ETF (USD) to try and approximate AUD pricing)
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