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HCH - Hot Chili

Sean K

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I won't be buying but there is a striking picture of volume, positive divergence and small bodied candles on the all Data monthly chart. Double bottom late 2018 and mid 2020, long base. I would be feeling hopeful holding it.

Monthly

That's a very long term perspective. Yikes! I don't think I've looked back further than 2 years. I'll be very happy if this goes back to 5 or so cents.
 

Sean K

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HCH having a good month. Improving my monthly stock pick average a little. A good tactic over the past 2 years would have been to buy the dips. Pretty consistent range. Coming up against multiple resistance levels again. Fingers crossed she can make an all time high soonish but between here at 5.5c looks tough.

The recent love has been due to metal prices and the prospect of HCH being listed in Canada later this year. Could be just more belief after Glencore got on board as well and a more consistent flow of info. Also going to do a share consolidation in a month or so in prep for the duel listing.

Screen Shot 2021-10-19 at 10.07.28 am.png
 

Sean K

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That resistance level is a tough one. Now forming a little flag thingie, which could be bullish if it breaks the resistance. Target the length of the pole in theory. If last month constitutes a pole... But, it's had similar set ups like this before obviously...

AGM on the 15th will include a vote on share consolidation of 50:1 in prep for TSX listing.

Expecting this to give the company a little more exposure to investors who understand porphyrys.

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I expect the MRE upgrade early next year to be towards the 1Bt @ 0.5% CuEq, which will look pretty good on paper.

Screen Shot 2021-11-02 at 1.50.05 pm.png
 
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Agree @Sean K
Don't follow the company at all but to my eye that is definitely a bullish pennant forming at a level of resistance - volume high on the pole, low in the pennant. Monthly still looking ok too.
 

Sean K

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Is it time for an emoticon?
:oops:🧻
You can do better kennas
Pennant disintegrated, chart still on the positive side

:confused: Yes, another fail at that major resistance level. I thought the update on the TSX listing might create enough vibe to send it up, but nup. Funny how seemingly positive news can cause a sell off. You know the story.

I'm holding until getting closer (at least) to the MRE upgrade that isn't due till next year. Might have bought more if it had have broken up from that set up and cleared resistance.
 

Sean K

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Stage discussion, worth listening to, IMO. Good to hear some Aussies discussing Latin American operations. Maybe they need an Aussie who can speak Spanish? PM me guys, I'm free!

Important HCH info around the 12.30 mark.

 

Sean K

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HUH?? A CR??? They raised $40m in Aug/Sep. A chunk of that was to pay for the tenement but geesh. Perhaps they're striking while there's plenty of hot cash on offer and they'll be able to guarantee drilling out to a DFS next year.

This has been a turkey since the share consolidation.

Screen Shot 2021-12-03 at 4.16.44 pm.png
 
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The 50:1 consolidation hides the increasing number of shares issued throughout the years. Now that it's hidden, they can continue to issue shares as they raise capital.
 

Sean K

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The 50:1 consolidation hides the increasing number of shares issued throughout the years. Now that it's hidden, they can continue to issue shares as they raise capital.

I think this may be in relation to their TSX-V listing. But I'm not sure how...
 
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TSXV may have a minimum price for new listings and HCH had to consolidate to lift their share price to get their ADRs to comply.
I'm only guessing. However HCHs 4 billion shares on issue is now hidden from view.
 

Sean K

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This was at $2.60 a month ago and they're doing this placement at CAD$1.55. So, obviously the sp has tanked a bit. Disappointing, but part of the game to get financing I suppose. The share consolidation has not been kind to holders. Hopefully Nth American punters take some notice once it lists. This is going to take a long time to get to mining.

Screen Shot 2021-12-10 at 1.09.32 pm.png
 
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Hot fudge.
If it 5 bagged from here, original buyers from early 2010 would still be short of getting their money back. Now it's diluting again. They've already proven what they are. Leopard doesn't change his spots, as they were so shall they be, a stitch in time saves nine
Even if you get something going in Chile the communist unions and govt will bog you down.
 

Sean K

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Hot fudge.
If it 5 bagged from here, original buyers from early 2010 would still be short of getting their money back. Now it's diluting again. They've already proven what they are. Leopard doesn't change his spots, as they were so shall they be, a stitch in time saves nine
Even if you get something going in Chile the communist unions and govt will bog you down.

Yep, it's looking like a 🐔 (that's as close to a turkey I can get in Joe's emoji suite) and I've always been worried about the communistas, but in the bottom draw for the listing and resource upgrade.

But, if the stars align, and $1.55 is a base, it's coming into a buy zone.

Screen Shot 2021-12-10 at 2.21.08 pm.png
 

Sean K

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Good news out of Peru, which will be generally linked to Chile copper mining (I guess), is that the Leftists have failed to impose increased taxes on mining. This should flow into general perception about the Communistas in all of east Sth America. I think one of the things holding back HCH is the country risk with Chile and potential tax grabs against miners, wrecking the potential development of new projects. I agree that Peru and Chile should probably keep more of their resources, but they are incapable of mining themselves, and rely on foreign companies to dig the stuff up, so they can't kill the goose laying the golden eggs to fund their social programs.


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Sean K

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The current funding cycle coming to an end and the TSXV listing should clear the decks for HCH to reset for further value gain next year. Hopefully the MRE update early in 22, POC appreciation, some exploration success, and the Communists not gaining any traction for tax increases on copper miners will put a more positive spin on things. The recent share consolidation and financing round have put the MC of this turkey deep into the toilet.
 

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This must be what HCH are paying 10K a month for the next 12 months. PR in Canada. Let's see what that $120K gets in a year.

 

Sean K

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Interesting timing with the ramp out yesterday followed by this ann. On the surface of it I wasn't impressed at all, but Cu from surface, it's significant. Means no strip and they start digging up copper almost immediately.

They need to come in with a significant number on the MRE upgrade this quarter. They've been ramping it themselves for some time. So, if the 'significant' upgrade doesn't surprise us to the upside, it may still be in the toilet.

A near regional discovery might help. They ramped Santiago Z to the south some time ago but haven't put a drill bit into it.

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Sean K

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Since @peter2 has this on his list of potential reversal ops, I need to add my own charts here. But before I agree with him, I'm very cautious on this puppy due to Chile politics, as I've mentioned in this thread, which I think is holding it back. Not as much risk as that other puppy XAM, but it's a concern for potential developers. But with Glencore on board I'm quietly optimistic that it turns into a mine down the track. Otherwise, Looks like $1.60 is bottom-like. If she breaks $1.80, holds, tests, keeps going, might have seen a bottom. Maybe. Until the Communistas take control. Lots of short term news coming out which might be the catalyst for a longer term turnaround.

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The Combo portfolio has started a speculative position in HCH. I'm pre-empting the BO >1.83 and buying it early. My iSL is 0.20 lower at the bottom of the rectangle (box) in the chart. The R:R is acceptable and I like the outlook for copper in 2022.

HCH1401.PNG
 
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