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GOR - Gold Road Resources

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brerwallabi said:
Not sure where GOR is going at the moment, I think they have a lot to sort out.
If they make the right moves and production does increase then I can see this north of $2 if the gold price does make record highs this year and stays above US$2000.
Click to expand...
am not so sure of $US 2000 reliably , but if the Aussie dollar stays low that might be good enough

there is major manipulation on the commodity and currency exchanges maybe GOR will get a break anyway

( i hold GOR but so far it is not on my priority list ( to add more )
 
I am hoping for a stronger Aussie dollar as it affects my living in foreign lands.
 
Good morning
GOR production announcement today (12/01/23):

  • Gold Road and joint venture operating partner Gruyere Mining have met their annual guidance of 300,000–340,000 ounces of gold set in January last year;
  • Gold Road said production from the Gruyere mine in WA totalled 314,647 ounces (157,324 ounces attributable) after December output rose;
  • Its sales totalled 37,295 ounces at an average price of $2476 per ounce and included delivery of 6480 ounces at an average price of $1735 per ounce into the last remaining forward sales contracts;
  • Gold Road, ended the quarter with cash and equivalents of $80.7m, lower than its September quarter balance of $91.4m. The December quarter numbers include a $26m investment in De Grey Mining shares in October to maintain a 19.75 per cent interest. At the end of December, Gold Road held listed investments with a market value of approximately $407m.
Have a very nice day today.
Not holding.

Kind regards
rcw1
 

Attachments

  • December-2022-Quarter-Production-Update.PDF
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I'm not sure where the 'consensus' comes from here. Maybe RBC think they are the University of East Anglia, or Penn State.

 
If of interest, Greg Canavan posted on his fat tails advisory 2 weeks ago that GOR had entered his estimate of the buy zone. He uses some complicated calculation of the npv of future cashflows for a valuation but relies on broker estimates of future earnings for his inputs. Then he uses the price chart. I'm getting a bit interested in GOR. Still a doubtful chart imo.

Not Held



 
I'm a little surprised that there hasn't been much discussion about GOR in this forum recently, considering the short-term strength over the month and the general market interest in gold overall. In addition, GOR appears within my scans for the week and with further analysis it's clear to see a technical set-up and support level that's currently present at $1.55. Elliott Wave traders may be quite interested with the underlying technical set-up also and noting a potential target of near $2.00. Some resistance areas above to be aware of need to be overcome, but investment/trading sentiment appears positive. Further discussion is also available in my weekly video available at the link below (sections of interest would include the sector breakdown involving gold, as well as the top-down sector analysis for potential trades including GOR - sections timestamped in the description area of the video).



 
A beautiful set of figures.
Unhedged. Cash/equivalents build of $44m for the March Qtr.
Company predicting 9 years of mine life at least with next two calendar years production visibility.
Corporate All in Cost (CAIC) of A$1,609/oz
Chart too hard to call for me - it is at a very diffucult level to break through but might be nearing completion of its consolidation. Cup, or Cup and Handle with more time? Or negative interpretation: double top - I don't favour this. Plenty of room for monthly momentum to move higher and developing well.

Not Held



ALL DATA MONTHLY
 

Maybe a triple top at $1.90 ish. Might need USD POG to go through $2070 for this to also break up. Maybe a little more consolidation to develop some extra momentum for the eventual break.
 
GOR @ 1.71

Still niggled by an urge to buy this but I have set-back fatigue and don't have the stomach to sit through another paper loss while it sorts itself out. Was reminded of it by a Greg Canavan buy reiteration a day or so ago.
He takes the tack that the current price is justified by GOR's return on its 'internal' equity and you're getting GOR's passive 20% of DEG and 17% of YRL for free = about 38c per share.
Not unexpectedly the chart is not resolving yet as to whether its a double top or consolidating as a cup before busting higher. By not buying now I am effectively treating it as a double top by default, because if it's a cup then I should be buying now. I'm not dying face down in the winter muck in the Ukraine though, which could be worse I s'pose.

Not Held

MONTHLY
 
Nothing much happening with GOR lately, treading water. It occurred to me - something that might knock it lower would be a negative reaction to the upcoming dfs for DEG? Gold Road owning a big chunk of DEG and some opine DEG is way over-priced. No opinion on that myself but I would selfishly like to see GOR double top rather than cup so that I can get a few.

Not Held
 
i hold GOR ( @ a little over $1.26 )

would have to be an interesting ann. to trigger me into buying more

more of a bottom-drawer stock for me

good luck
 

I've got a few companies that are going to bring out feasibility studies in the coming months and the CHN reaction does concern me. A bit worried about CTM and their complicated flow sheet.

I don't think DEG will suffer the same way as CHN, for three reasons. 1. The only negative surprise for the DEG FS might be the capex. I think $1.5b might be already factored in. 2. The rest of the study will be overwhelmingly positive. 3. They're going to be aiming for 600Koz pa with the potential of an extra 100Koz at the satellite deposit. Australian goldie comparison: EVN only produce high 700Koz and have an MC of $7b. NST produce about 1.5Moz with an MC of $13b. If DEG can produce half that, then their MC should be around $7b into production. It's back of the envelope analysis, but you know it makes sense. Even if the capex for DEG is $2b, that dilution will equate to a $4b company approximately. So, there's $3b in upside long term. If it gets smashed on their FS then I'll be thinking it's a longer term opportunity.
 
I guess this shows confidence in the eventual outcome and GOR resumes its blocking stake, but there's no way I'm getting into an orphan stage developer again in this life-time (DCN and CHN amongst others).
GOR the producer is another kettle of fish if it ever gets out of favour.

Gold Road back on track with De Grey

Gold Road has returned to 19.9 per cent shareholding in De Grey Mining after subscribing in the two tranche institutional placement.
www.australianmining.com.au
"Gold Road has returned to 19.9 per cent shareholding in De Grey Mining after subscribing in the two tranche institutional placement by De Grey at $1.05 per share"
 
Snagged 4 (four) shares of GOR today @ 1.81
At least I'm head of the queue with my bid for 3,000

Got sick of waiting, an old refrain but I'm more inclined to favour a continuation cup has been formed rather than an unconfirmed double top. Looking back I commented on the monthly chart 8 months ago in April and today GOR is the same price virtually!
Short term no telling what it'll do imo but my valuation on predicted 2025* earnings is around $2.70.
Greg Canavan reckons current intrinsic value 2023 is $2.15 and I.V. 2024 is $2.38.
As discussed: pays a dividend, unhedged, oodles of cash is building and an almost 20% holding of DEG. The holding of DEG is not contributing anything to the earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 and therefore nothing to the ROE top figure. I think that's what G Canavan is talking about with his 'internal return on equity' reference.
* eps estimates from Morningstar on CommSec. GOR works on and end Dec financial year.

Held!
 
Gold Road playing around at the top of its range.
Rather than be stuck with 4 shares bought @ 1.81 I met the offer a few trading days ago and filled the rest of my 3,000 order @ 2.00. Better than nothing but I suspect I won't be able to grow my position at cheaper prices. How did I miss this? Unhedged, profitable, many years of resource and a chunk of DEG. Not a bad chart to be in for a presumed bull market.

Held

MONTHLY
 
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