Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Sean K . Steady as she goes.

I still believe $4000 will provide very weak resistance. It may flap about between $4K and $5K but low 4's remains my short term target with a possible retracement to $4K on profit taking then away and up to $5K.

The Chinese cousins consider 4 to be a very, very unlucky number.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

@Sean K . Steady as she goes.

I still believe $4000 will provide very weak resistance. It may flap about between $4K and $5K but low 4's remains my short term target with a possible retracement to $4K on profit taking then away and up to $5K.

The Chinese cousins consider 4 to be a very, very unlucky number.

gg

so they will probably buy in yuan , yen or rubles ( i can't imagine the Indians selling much gold , they are more likely to be buyers )

 

[rcw1]

Gold is good ... more records obliterated

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodi...xTjQgZLcYNZIH_NyP1K_mIgPSQkyH1rPMC0rmWePV5A==




So in 1979 rates were cut only to return with higher rates in 1980.

This time we have falling rates with ZERO chance of higher rates going forward. The debt burdens are polar.






China turning the screws on the US.




Via Hong Kong:

Hong Kong expanded plans to boost the city’s gold storage facilities, with a view to deepening integration between the Asian hub and the mainland as China extends efforts to broaden its reach across international commodity markets.

In his annual policy address on Wednesday, Chief Executive John Lee unveiled a raft of policies aimed at reviving Hong Kong’s status as a global hub for gold trading, including pledges to increase the city’s capacity for holding bullion to more than 2,000 tons over the next three years and establish a central clearing system for gold.

The move is a significant step up from recent proposals to gradually increase gold storage in the city, as the government doubles down on its ambitions to attract traders to Hong Kong and increase refining operations. Those goals underpin a longer-term strategy of strengthening the link between the mainland and Hong Kong, and Lee used his address to invite the Shanghai Gold Exchange to prepare for mutual market access in the future.

Hong Kong has historically acted as a gateway for China — the world biggest bullion consumer. Beijing, meanwhile, has made strides in recent months to open its markets to foreign players in a bid to gain influence over global pricing.

In June, the SGE — China’s primary platform for physical gold trading — opened its first offshore vault in Hong Kong and launched two contracts for international investors, a step toward reducing reliance on the US dollar and promoting wider use of the yuan in international trade.

Against that backdrop, Hong Kong is positioning itself as the preeminent trading hub in Asia while also accelerating efforts to align itself more closely with Beijing. There are fewer restrictions on imports and exports of bullion in Hong Kong — making it a natural bridge between the global market and mainland China, where controls on shipments remain strict.





The ETF's are having to play catch-up as the momentum traders start to pile into these ETF's.

Also remember JPM has taken the custodial reins of GLD and SLV and store the non-allocated physical in NY.

Fast forward to today when that's precisely what happened, and as Bloomberg writes this morning, gold has powered to a fresh record high "after flows into exchange-traded funds hit a three-year high, with investors betting that the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle has further to run." It wasn't just gold: silver also rose, with year-to-date gains topping 50%.


China are weaponising gold:





So China has +/- 27,000 tonnes of gold.

He who has the gold makes the rules.

Chinese consumption, independent of the rest of the WORLD is driven by their increase in purchasing power, thanks to a rising gold price.

The Yuan is COLLAPSING as against gold, allowing other gold holding nations, BRICS, to increase trade (imports) from China. Which is why Chinese trade is expanding, not collapsing as the US hoped when they slapped tariffs on.

China through a 100% ban on soybean imports is collapsing the US farming industry.

The US dollar as against the Yuan is 80% overvalued. Not that the US even has a manufacturing base currently. The USD MUST revalue (lower) against gold.


jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

POG continues to see new record highs with almost 2% added overnight.
Profit taking will be on the cards, just a matter of when.
But I doubt if POG's momentum will be curtailed for long as global affairs are not healthy.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

kitco.com has been experiencing problems since 5am this morning and is now completely down.

https://abcbullion.com.au/products-pricing/gold is a reasonably accurate alternative.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

kitco.com has been experiencing problems since 5am this morning and is now completely down.

https://abcbullion.com.au/products-pricing/gold is a reasonably accurate alternative.

gg

There is also GoldPrice.org, I use it because it shows both gold and silver on same screen, and one select which currency the two are displayed in.
Helps if I am looking at charts of gold prices if I want to buy on TSX, LSE or NYSE.
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There is also GoldPrice.org, I use it because it shows both gold and silver on same screen, and one select which currency the two are displayed in.
Helps if I am looking at charts of gold prices if I want to buy on TSX, LSE or NYSE.
Mick

I haven't used https://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html before and must admit it has a cleaner interface than abcbullion.com. Thanks Mick @mullokintyre

gg

 

[rederob]

This 15 minute chart of spot gold starts from Monday's open, so we have not yet gone 2 days and already are up over $100.
Will we wake to POG over $3800 tomorrow?
I have no idea. But $4000 before the year's out is just a 2% increase in each of the coming months (and we are up over 2% in 2 days this week).

 

[finicky]

Take a chill pill

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-...ina-moves-de-westernize-global-bullion-market

ZeroHedge picking up now on the Hong Kong plan.


jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

No sign of POG at $3800 this morning, but here's some snippets:

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Kitco.com still down on browser although the App works.

From reddit.com



gg

 

[ducati916]

Many market observers have repeatedly been calling for material price corrections over the past 6 months as precious metals have spiraled higher in price.

Currently, London silver prices are seeing ‘backwardation’ (where the spot/cash price is higher than forward prices) all the way out to 12 months and silver implied lease rates are at 5%. Platinum has seen implied lease rates in the 10% to 25% range during this time.

Price backwardation and elevated lease rates both signal metal shortage in the market.

But All Is Not Well In The Bond Market​

Global debt stands at over $320 trillion (T) with ‘risk free’ US Treasuries representing a benchmark for global interest rates.

Since the Fed announced it was lowering interest rates last week, a disconcerting signal has been sent through the bond market in that the yield on Treasuries from 2-year to 30-year maturities have moved higher. That even 2-year Treasury maturities are being sold must be of concern both to the Fed and bond holders.

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices have moved higher as bonds have been sold in the face of the Fed announcement.

​

Figure 1 - US 2-Year Treasury Yield Sep 8 - Sep 23, 2025; source: TradingView.com

Given the $300T scale of global debt that is starting to be sold while gold and silver, with their current annual supply at $0.64T, are increasingly being bought, the wait for a meaningful correction in metals prices by so many seems strangely disconnected.




Barely three weeks ago, Points of Return pointed out that gold was up 37% for the year and on course for its best return in more than three decades. That was then. It’s now up 42.4% and on course for its best year in more than four decades. Not since the madness of 1979, when the metal more than doubled as investors despaired of ever seeing the end of inflation, has it had a rally as powerful and sustained as this one:


As 1979 showed, it’s necessary to be careful about pronouncements that gold is the ultimate currency. It’s an asset that can get caught up in a speculative mania, like stocks. But history also makes clear that it’s dangerous to ignore its message. Look at the S&P 500’s performance so far this decade in terms of bullion (by dividing the index value by the gold price) and stocks have actually lost ground:


How is gold managing to outperform the booming US stock market? An answer is that US shares are only doing so well because of monetary debasement. It’s true that the Federal Reserve cut its target rate last week, and that money supply is rising again. But neither of those events comes as a particular surprise. And the latest Fedspeak from Chair Jerome Powellsuggests that the central bank still feels able to resist the governmental pressure for lower rates. By emphasizing that there was “no risk-free way forward” and failing to guide to another cut next month, he appeared to weaken the case for gold.

Politics, however, may be the greatest factor. Shaken confidence in the US hasn’t dented the performance of American stocks this year, but countries’ attempts to build a Plan B to reduce their reliance on the dollar could now be showing up in demand for gold.

China’s decision to start offering Shanghai as an alternative venue for central banks to store their gold may be more symbolic than anything else. But it tends to underscore that any adaptation of the world financial system will mean more demand for gold. If 1979 was about a somewhat irrational panic over inflation, this latest rally seems to be driven by the more rational calculations of central banks. It might last longer.


Some thoughts:


In 1963 (2nd to last year US quarters were made of silver) US min. wage was $1.25, or 5 silver quarters. Today, the melt value of 1963 silver quarters is ~$7, so those 5 silver quarters are worth $35. Yet min. wage is only $7.25.


US consensus: "China is undervaluing CNY which is why China runs a world-record trade surplus." But if China's 2024 gold imports were valued at $22,000/oz, they would've balanced China's 2024 trade surplus.

Ie, CNY is not undervalued v. USD; USD is wildly overvalued as against gold


US Int Expense + Entitlemts + Veterans Affairs Pmts are already 95-100% of all-time high receipts, which are marginally dependent on stocks going up 10-15%/yr, forever

If stocks fall ~20% & stay down or we have a recession, US will face a near-immediate “print or default” choice.


More and more 'mainstream' are starting to realise just how serious the problems actually are.





Of course readers of this thread would have been buyers in the box or even long (decades) before.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So @rederob would be quite correct. I do 'plaigiarise' from many sites, sources, persons (dead and alive) to cobble together a daily post.

Due to working a day job and trading, I don't always have time for the correct attribution to the various persons responsible when posting.

So this will be the last post on this series of threads.

jog on

duc

 

[myrtie100]

View attachment 209461


So @rederob would be quite correct. I do 'plaigiarise' from many sites, sources, persons (dead and alive) to cobble together a daily post.

Due to working a day job and trading, I don't always have time for the correct attribution to the various persons responsible when posting.

So this will be the last post on this series of threads.

jog on

duc

I'm disappointed to read this duc. And wanted to let you know that I appreciate the effort you go to in putting this info together. I have learnt and gained so much insight from both threads.
I am fully aware your posts are a collection of views from across the internet, which helped me form my own ideas from information you felt was worth considering.
I really hope you change your mind. These threads are such valuable assets to this forum.

 

[mullokintyre]

I'm disappointed to read this duc. And wanted to let you know that I appreciate the effort you go to in putting this info together. I have learnt and gained so much insight from both threads.
I am fully aware your posts are a collection of views from across the internet, which helped me form my own ideas from information you felt was worth considering.
I really hope you change your mind. These threads are such valuable assets to this forum.

i would concur with the above.
Mick

 

[Antirnator]

So this will be the last post on this series of threads.

jog on

duc

The internet has spoken your sentiment is...

 

[finicky]

So we get CCP devotee 'red'erob and lose ducati. Aren't we supposed to trade up? lol

 

[TimeISmoney]

I really don't understand what's wrong with people these days. Duc goes to great lengths piecing these articles together from multiple sites to create quality information; it's never been a great secret, and it's not hard to do a Google search and find the source.

I say let haters hate, not everyone is going to like you in the world, it's just the way it is.