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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Since hitting $3400 for the first time ever on 21 April this year, POG has meandered through 4 more attempts - today being the most recent.
If there are war premiums locked in to the present high price, they appear to be relatively small. My view is that Trump's global destabilisation of international trade is the principal price driver for now. Most of Trump's many TACO tariffs are reset from today, and their worst impacts are not going to be felt by Americans until end-year at best. However, in the intervening period, at the international level, we are likely to experience even more of the regular flip flops as Trumps realises his ill-thought plans are not working. A sustainable plus-$3500 POG is very much on the cards.

1754610113504.png
 
The miners are certainly on fire. I fortunately bought a small amount of NST a few weeks ago and am very surprised at the extent of it's rise. There is always the possibility that Trump may be considering putting a tariff on gold and the large US gold miners are Trump insiders. Remember even our large gold miners are in the GDXJ etf, the junior miners. So GDX is the one to watch. There was an interesting article on gold and tariffs some months ago on kitco.com. It is not the easiest commodity to tariff.

It is literally a license to print money though for the US Treasury and i'm quite sure Trump has looked at how to apply tariffs to gold.

www.kitco.com

Whether 145% or 10%, tariff uncertainty is enough to stop U.S. gold and silver imports, distort the metals market at all levels – Experts

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
The miners are certainly on fire. I fortunately bought a small amount of NST a few weeks ago and am very surprised at the extent of it's rise. There is always the possibility that Trump may be considering putting a tariff on gold and the large US gold miners are Trump insiders.
Click to expand...

Well that happened more quickly than I thought it would. Tariffs on 1kg gold bars the main export method from Switzerland and the commonest trade on Comex.

From FT.COM

US hits one-kilo gold bars with tariffs in blow to refining hub Switzerland​

Futures contracts for precious metal reach new high after blow to country’s bullion trade

Fproduction%2F11b3ac27-2228-4f8b-905c-9ffa7a9d33bb.jpg


Bullion has been on a historic rally this year, rising 27 per cent since the end of 2024 © Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://www.ft.com/content/78be1315-608d-43c6-b8e7-80b9e18c5ce7&text=US hits one-kilo gold bars with tariffs in blow to refining hub Switzerland&via=ft



The US has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars, in a move that threatens to upend the global bullion market and deal a fresh blow to Switzerland, the world’s largest refining hub.
The Customs Border Protection agency said one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to levies, according to a so-called ruling letter dated July 31, which was seen by the Financial Times. Ruling letters are used by the US to clarify its trade policy.
The CBP’s decision stands in sharp contrast with the industry’s previous expectations that these types of gold bars should be classified using a different customs code that is exempt from Trump’s countrywide tariffs.
One-kilo bars are the most common form traded on Comex, the world’s largest gold futures market, and comprise the bulk of Switzerland’s bullion exports to the US.
Comex gold futures for December delivery, the most active contract, surged to an intraday record high of $3,534 per troy ounce on Friday after the Financial Times revealed the US customs authorities’ ruling.
Relations between Washington and Bern have deteriorated after the US last week announced a 39 per cent tariff on imports from the country. Gold is one of Switzerland’s biggest exports to the US, customs data shows.
The tariff ruling dealt “another blow” to the Swiss gold trade with the US, said Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders of Precious Metals. Wild added that the gold tariff would make it difficult to meet its demand for the yellow metal.
Earlier this year traders rushed to bring gold into the US ahead of Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs — building up a record stockpile on Comex, and leading to a temporary shortage in London.
However, when those tariffs were announced, they included exemptions for many commodities including a certain classification of bullion which was widely interpreted to cover large gold bars.
The global trade flow for bullion is normally TRIANGULAR : large gold bars travel between London and New York, via Switzerland, where they are recast into different sizes.
The two markets use different-sized bars, with London using a 400 troy ounce bar, which is about the size of a brick, while the kilo bar, roughly the size of a smartphone, is preferred in New York.
Bullion has been on a historic rally this year, rising 27 per cent since the end of 2024. Fears over inflation, concerns over government debt levels, and the decline of the US dollar as a reserve currency have contributed to gold’s surge.
Switzerland exported $61.5bn of gold to the US over the 12 months ending in June. That same volume would now be subject to an additional $24bn in tariffs under Switzerland’s 39 per cent tariff rate, which went into effect on Thursday.
“The prevailing view was that precious metals remelted by Swiss refineries and exported to the US could be shipped tariff-free,” said Wild, the association president. “However the custom code classification for different gold products is not always precise.”
Several Swiss gold refineries said they had spent months with lawyers to determine what types of gold products might be exempt, or not. Two refineries told the FT they had temporarily reduced or halted shipments to the US as a result of the uncertainty.
The ruling letter, which was a response to a formal request for clarification from a Swiss refinery, said one-kilo and 100-ounce bars fell under classification code 7108.13.5500, and stated that they did not fall under code 7108.12.10 — the only code exempt from duties.

ABOVE FROM FT.COM.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Well that happened more quickly than I thought it would. Tariffs on 1kg gold bars the main export method from Switzerland and the commonest trade on Comex.

From FT.COM

US hits one-kilo gold bars with tariffs in blow to refining hub Switzerland​

Futures contracts for precious metal reach new high after blow to country’s bullion trade

View attachment 205653


Bullion has been on a historic rally this year, rising 27 per cent since the end of 2024 © Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://www.ft.com/content/78be1315-608d-43c6-b8e7-80b9e18c5ce7&text=US hits one-kilo gold bars with tariffs in blow to refining hub Switzerland&via=ft



The US has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars, in a move that threatens to upend the global bullion market and deal a fresh blow to Switzerland, the world’s largest refining hub.
The Customs Border Protection agency said one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to levies, according to a so-called ruling letter dated July 31, which was seen by the Financial Times. Ruling letters are used by the US to clarify its trade policy.
The CBP’s decision stands in sharp contrast with the industry’s previous expectations that these types of gold bars should be classified using a different customs code that is exempt from Trump’s countrywide tariffs.
One-kilo bars are the most common form traded on Comex, the world’s largest gold futures market, and comprise the bulk of Switzerland’s bullion exports to the US.
Comex gold futures for December delivery, the most active contract, surged to an intraday record high of $3,534 per troy ounce on Friday after the Financial Times revealed the US customs authorities’ ruling.
Relations between Washington and Bern have deteriorated after the US last week announced a 39 per cent tariff on imports from the country. Gold is one of Switzerland’s biggest exports to the US, customs data shows.
The tariff ruling dealt “another blow” to the Swiss gold trade with the US, said Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders of Precious Metals. Wild added that the gold tariff would make it difficult to meet its demand for the yellow metal.
Earlier this year traders rushed to bring gold into the US ahead of Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs — building up a record stockpile on Comex, and leading to a temporary shortage in London.
However, when those tariffs were announced, they included exemptions for many commodities including a certain classification of bullion which was widely interpreted to cover large gold bars.
The global trade flow for bullion is normally TRIANGULAR : large gold bars travel between London and New York, via Switzerland, where they are recast into different sizes.
The two markets use different-sized bars, with London using a 400 troy ounce bar, which is about the size of a brick, while the kilo bar, roughly the size of a smartphone, is preferred in New York.
Bullion has been on a historic rally this year, rising 27 per cent since the end of 2024. Fears over inflation, concerns over government debt levels, and the decline of the US dollar as a reserve currency have contributed to gold’s surge.
Switzerland exported $61.5bn of gold to the US over the 12 months ending in June. That same volume would now be subject to an additional $24bn in tariffs under Switzerland’s 39 per cent tariff rate, which went into effect on Thursday.
“The prevailing view was that precious metals remelted by Swiss refineries and exported to the US could be shipped tariff-free,” said Wild, the association president. “However the custom code classification for different gold products is not always precise.”
Several Swiss gold refineries said they had spent months with lawyers to determine what types of gold products might be exempt, or not. Two refineries told the FT they had temporarily reduced or halted shipments to the US as a result of the uncertainty.
The ruling letter, which was a response to a formal request for clarification from a Swiss refinery, said one-kilo and 100-ounce bars fell under classification code 7108.13.5500, and stated that they did not fall under code 7108.12.10 — the only code exempt from duties.

ABOVE FROM FT.COM.

gg
Click to expand...
More a country ban than a tariff there.
Either voluntarily or not, when you see gold as a store of value, not a manufacturing compound, this is clearly not a protecting US manufacturing aim
 
rederob said:
Since hitting $3400 for the first time ever on 21 April this year, POG has meandered through 4 more attempts - today being the most recent.
If there are war premiums locked in to the present high price, they appear to be relatively small. My view is that Trump's global destabilisation of international trade is the principal price driver for now. Most of Trump's many TACO tariffs are reset from today, and their worst impacts are not going to be felt by Americans until end-year at best. However, in the intervening period, at the international level, we are likely to experience even more of the regular flip flops as Trumps realises his ill-thought plans are not working. A sustainable plus-$3500 POG is very much on the cards.

View attachment 205617
Click to expand...

I'm not quite so sure. We all got pretty excited during the recent massive rally, but is it just taking a brief pause before the next big run, or has it reached a new level it can consolidate at for a period of years? It's difficult to be sure. It sat in a channel for the best part of 4 years between about $1600 and $2000, and the rerate to where it is now only started last year (that is, it only broke out of that channel early last year). It's around double what it was in that channel which lasted for years and only ended last year, that's a massive rerate and it could potentially consolidate in a channel around $3200-3500 or so for a few more years now.

I'm certainly not bearish and don't expect to ever see it crash down to below $2000 again (never say never, it could happen, but probably only with a black swan) and hey, it could go higher in the near future, but it would need a pretty significant catalyst to continue the run after doubling in such a short time. Long term, absolutely, I'm sure it'll top $4k, $5k and beyond, but it may be a bit of a wait.

Let's take a look at a longer term chart:

2025_08_09_01_37_48_GOLD_3_393.510_0.19_Ya_Mum_Mozilla_Firefox.jpg

Looking at the longer term picture, you can really see how huge a rerate we've already had, and that it can sit stable for years. Doubling in price seems like a pretty comfortable time to start a new stable channel for a while.

Oh, and yeah, you can see an old note I left myself on the chart from back when the price was under $2,000, reminding myself that if it broke out of that channel I should buy with a target of $3,100. It did and I did. Worked out nicely. Still holding most of it, though, yeah, it's now well above my target... the target was a little conservative to encourage myself to sell out and not get greedy when it rallied hard... possibly not a bad time to have zoomed out and seen that old note... or then again, maybe you're right and the current consolidation is just a brief pause and the rally isn't over.
 
Sdajii said:
I'm not quite so sure. We all got pretty excited during the recent massive rally, but is it just taking a brief pause before the next big run, or has it reached a new level it can consolidate at for a period of years? It's difficult to be sure. It sat in a channel for the best part of 4 years between about $1600 and $2000, and the rerate to where it is now only started last year (that is, it only broke out of that channel early last year). It's around double what it was in that channel which lasted for years and only ended last year, that's a massive rerate and it could potentially consolidate in a channel around $3200-3500 or so for a few more years now.

I'm certainly not bearish and don't expect to ever see it crash down to below $2000 again (never say never, it could happen, but probably only with a black swan) and hey, it could go higher in the near future, but it would need a pretty significant catalyst to continue the run after doubling in such a short time. Long term, absolutely, I'm sure it'll top $4k, $5k and beyond, but it may be a bit of a wait.

Let's take a look at a longer term chart:

View attachment 205668

Looking at the longer term picture, you can really see how huge a rerate we've already had, and that it can sit stable for years. Doubling in price seems like a pretty comfortable time to start a new stable channel for a while.

Oh, and yeah, you can see an old note I left myself on the chart from back when the price was under $2,000, reminding myself that if it broke out of that channel I should buy with a target of $3,100. It did and I did. Worked out nicely. Still holding most of it, though, yeah, it's now well above my target... the target was a little conservative to encourage myself to sell out and not get greedy when it rallied hard... possibly not a bad time to have zoomed out and seen that old note... or then again, maybe you're right and the current consolidation is just a brief pause and the rally isn't over.
Click to expand...
Just for fun I knocked up a chart showing a range of scenarios for POG at January 2026
  • Unlikely is $4100
  • Possible is $3600
  • Trend is $2700, and
  • Capitulation does not bear thinking about!
I believe $3600 is most achievable of the 4 scenarios
  • There is no way market uncertainty will go away while TACO Trump is President
  • BRICS-aligned nations are shifting into gold as an asset base for international money transfers using BRICS Pay
  • Central Banks are continuing to accumulate gold
  • Whatever good is achieved in Ukraine or Gaza negotiations will be countered by continued sabre rattling over Iran and Taiwan
  • US debt is likely to continue increasing, and US inflation will hit record decadal-level highs in the medium/long term.
1754693404847.png
 
qldfrog said:
More a country ban than a tariff there.
Either voluntarily or not, when you see gold as a store of value, not a manufacturing compound, this is clearly not a protecting US manufacturing aim
Click to expand...
Indeed, however some say it was an overzealous change in the tariff on bullion rather than a purely punish the Swiss " those bastards who charge too much for their clocks and watches " as I've read Mr. Trump was quoted once. There were two separate sections seemingly in the regulations one on size and the other on type of gold. There are so many things that come under gold, e.e blanks, rectangles and circles for coinage later, coins themselves, bars, etched bars andhigh end jewellery and bullion in varying amounts of weight from multiples of ozs to. gms.

What it will do is damage the supply chain which triangulates between New York, Switzerland and London with the Swiss being the major smelters. It does look though that futures in Comex will be affected more than spot.

gg
 
rederob said:
Just for fun I knocked up a chart showing a range of scenarios for POG at January 2026
  • Unlikely is $4100
  • Possible is $3600
  • Trend is $2700, and
  • Capitulation does not bear thinking about!
I believe $3600 is most achievable of the 4 scenarios
  • There is no way market uncertainty will go away while TACO Trump is President
  • BRICS-aligned nations are shifting into gold as an asset base for international money transfers using BRICS Pay
  • Central Banks are continuing to accumulate gold
  • Whatever good is achieved in Ukraine or Gaza negotiations will be countered by continued sabre rattling over Iran and Taiwan
  • US debt is likely to continue increasing, and US inflation will hit record decadal-level highs in the medium/long term.
View attachment 205681
Click to expand...

Why do you refer specifically to Trump? Do you think the previous term under the loony left was conducive to a stable and wonderful economy? It was under the crazy nonsense of the Democrat government that we saw the bulk of the movement of gold price's approximate doubling. Trump isn't perfect and I don't especially want to speak fondly of him, but the 'instability' he brings is to try to reverse the utterly chaotic, economically suicidal policies of the other side. Most of the attacks at Trump (look at the biggest few - January 6, Russia collusion, 'Fine people', etc) are literally complete fiction narratives (seriously, January 6 was an insurrection? The most well-armed people in the country literally left their guns at home to overthrow the government by calmly walking around a government building after being ushered inside by the existing government?, the Russia collusion story has been outright exposed as purely fictional and President Obama was fully involved and knew exactly that he was committing treason, the 'fine people' story was blatantly dishonest which anyone who ever bothered to spend a few seconds listening to the entire audio knows, and these are the biggest attacks they have, showing how little actual substance they have).


Absolutely, gold demand has increased and the chaos of the USA has contributed, that's why it has doubled or so in the last two years or so. That's a drastic increase in one of the world's most important stores of 'wealth' and effectively currencies. How much further can it run now? A bit more? Sure, entirely possible. A bit of a retrace? Entirely possible. A drastic crash? I can't see it. A huge rally? That's difficult for something with such a giant market cap which is effectively just a currency with no nationality or industry or anything to back it, which has already recently doubled. $3600? Yeah, sure, entirely possible, but that's not much of an increase anyway, and it could retrace by a similar amount.
 
TimeISmoney said:
Whoa! Ease up son.


View attachment 205152
Click to expand...
From the ft.com today. Some clarification of conflicting messages on Swiss/1kg/100oz gold bars although no definitive ruling ... yet.

The Financial Times had reported on Thursday that the Customs and Border Protection had ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce bars should be classified with a customs code that is subject to tariffs. Its decision stood in sharp contrast to industry expectations that the bars would be exempt from President Donald Trump’s levies.
The ruling came despite an exemption to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs for gold bullion, listed under a different customs code.

“The White House intends to issue an executive order in the near future clarifying misinformation about the tariffing of gold bars and other speciality products,” a White House official said on Friday.
This is a developing story

From ft.com.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
From the ft.com today. Some clarification of conflicting messages on Swiss/1kg/100oz gold bars although no definitive ruling ... yet.

The Financial Times had reported on Thursday that the Customs and Border Protection had ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce bars should be classified with a customs code that is subject to tariffs. Its decision stood in sharp contrast to industry expectations that the bars would be exempt from President Donald Trump’s levies.
The ruling came despite an exemption to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs for gold bullion, listed under a different customs code.

“The White House intends to issue an executive order in the near future clarifying misinformation about the tariffing of gold bars and other speciality products,” a White House official said on Friday.
This is a developing story

From ft.com.

gg
Click to expand...
@Garpal Gumnut No doubt The Trumpet will turn left, right, swing around in circled, do handstands and then make an uninformed decision as is his usual way.
In the meantime, au will possibly continue to climb.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
From the ft.com today. Some clarification of conflicting messages on Swiss/1kg/100oz gold bars although no definitive ruling ... yet.

The Financial Times had reported on Thursday that the Customs and Border Protection had ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce bars should be classified with a customs code that is subject to tariffs. Its decision stood in sharp contrast to industry expectations that the bars would be exempt from President Donald Trump’s levies.
The ruling came despite an exemption to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs for gold bullion, listed under a different customs code.

“The White House intends to issue an executive order in the near future clarifying misinformation about the tariffing of gold bars and other speciality products,” a White House official said on Friday.
This is a developing story

From ft.com.

gg
Click to expand...
It was all a big mistake and nobody's fault via my correspondent in South Park.

www.kitco.com

White House calls gold bar tariffs report 'misinformation', says no new tariffs on gold imports

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

gg
 
I guess for some GLD might be to expensive...what are the chances?

goldbroker.com

Is Gold Really “Too Expensive”? | GoldBroker.com

Some investors choose to defer their investment in gold, arguing that gold is “too expensive.” This article therefore aims to measure the opportunity cost incurred by an investor who decides to delay investing in gold.
goldbroker.com goldbroker.com
 
Bailxtrader said:
goldbroker.com

Fiscal QE Weakens Markets and Accelerates the Rush to Gold & Silver | GoldBroker.com

Central banks are preparing for a world where the dollar will no longer be the only credible store of value. As monetary uncertainty grows, gold is regaining its central role as a trusted asset that is outside the system, liquid, and fre...
goldbroker.com goldbroker.com
Click to expand...
They're rolling over debt to pay debt, not a good sign for the people holding USD.

"The current massive injections of liquidity — in the form of disguised “fiscal QE” via the record issuance of very short-term T-bills — are like kindling: they quickly inflame the market without providing any lasting warmth. This frenzy of 4- or 8-week refinancing, involving unprecedented amounts ($90 billion then $100 billion for 4-week T-bills in the space of ten days), is artificially fueling demand for risky assets, particularly large-cap technology stocks.

But just as crates burn quickly without leaving embers, this form of temporary support creates neither structural growth nor financial resilience. It masks the reality of a slowing economy, a weakening labor market, and a valuation bubble that is increasingly difficult to justify."
 
TimeISmoney said:
They're rolling over debt to pay debt, not a good sign for the people holding USD.

"The current massive injections of liquidity — in the form of disguised “fiscal QE” via the record issuance of very short-term T-bills — are like kindling: they quickly inflame the market without providing any lasting warmth. This frenzy of 4- or 8-week refinancing, involving unprecedented amounts ($90 billion then $100 billion for 4-week T-bills in the space of ten days), is artificially fueling demand for risky assets, particularly large-cap technology stocks.

But just as crates burn quickly without leaving embers, this form of temporary support creates neither structural growth nor financial resilience. It masks the reality of a slowing economy, a weakening labor market, and a valuation bubble that is increasingly difficult to justify."
Click to expand...


The effect of the liquidity:


Screenshot 2025-08-10 at 6.26.50 PM.png


135 is the danger zone.


jog on
duc
 

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