Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Booms after Crypto Crash 2022

Jump to new
Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
Joined
2 January 2006
Posts
15,051
Reactions
13,463
Sometimes I dream, not the sleeping kind, but the lackadaisical sitting beside a creek, end of winter dozy sort of musing. and ideas come to me.

I'd been reading the Washington Post, an article about Xi Peng banning Chinese KPop's which are not a cereal btw but effeminate boy choristers for adolescent girls.

I then thought of Xi recently banning crypto for Chinese citizens.

I returned for a Great Northern and a barfly recently released from the Townsville Correctional Centre read me a review article from The Times of London about an explorer's recent trip down the River Amur which is a border for many hundreds of kms between Russia and China. ( bear with me I'll get there )

The Russians and Chinese hate each other seemingly. Always have, always will. Still do across The River Amur.

Now many Americans and Russians hold crypto in large amounts. I am told Americans are not soupe de jour with the Chinese atm neither.

Xi is not averse to using malware against his enemies and for the good of the Han gene pool.

I envisage a massive takedown of Crypto mines, traders and wallets worldwide by the Chinese Comrades soon, starting a run on everything except Gold.

45% of all Gold is held in government treasuries worldwide so I cannot see any meaningful response from the cousins in the Five Eyes nor the EU to alleviate the attack.

Ergo Gold booms.

Time for another snooze. You heard it here first.

gg
 
The Chinese version of Homo Sovieticus is a glint in Xi's eye. Gaming, boy bands, private tutoring, billionaires with power bases, celebrities; all in the crosshairs. Mind you, the last concerted attempt at control, the Four Grandparent Policy, has seen a few negative consequences emerge. And the latest moves look to be a bit of factional cleansing in the leadup to the 20th Party Congress. A few princelings might even find themselves banished to the loess badlands.

As to gold and crypto. Part of the Geist der Zeiten. Some say the decline of one and the emergence of the other is causal. Jury is still out.
 
Last edited:
@GG, very interesting.
Locally, last night a storm gave my PPR a 30 min blackout. Scramble the candles!
Anyway, as I was on the tablet at the time, boom no internet. This got me thinking, even though I had mobile coverage/service I could hotspot, what would happen to crypto if those services no longer functioned?
No power, no interwebs equals no digital wallet and no access to crypto was my self reply.

This lead me to think, so what safe guards are there for crypto?
At least with "hard cash" one could/can still use pen and paper to record transactions.
Thoughts?
 
Great to look into your thinking GG, share your dreams more often... :xyxthumbs

It's just been one way really, they had to put the Gold : Bitcoin chart on a log scale.

1630740255177.png

Makes you wonder, if Gold will stay suppressed below 2k, while BTC will continue it's merrily advance towards 100k and beyond or will a bit of reality kick in at some stage as per GG's comments...
 
Apart from gold the mention of the barfly got my attention and the release form the correctional institution interested in the story. This is definately a side story/character that I hope gets more mention in the future episodes of this season
 
In 2022 in a parallel universe, governments world-wide have accumulated a record amount of debt, mainly due to increased spending supporting their economies during the Coronavirus pandemic. With increased vaccination levels, and pressure from citizens, regulation regarding international borders have started to normalise, while trade routes are steadily coming back to normal.

In 2022, still in this parallel universe, these governments are coming under increasing pressure from voters to reduce the mountains of debt, just as they did in the 2000s and 2010s. Voters are starting to get the message across to their elected politicians that they don't want coming generations burdened by this enormous mountain of debt.

What do the politicians do?

Still in this parallel universe, one small, un-named, government caves in to pressure from voters and opposition parties. This un-named government comes up with a novel way of reducing this mountain of debt. Sell their gold reserves. So, quietly, and unobserved by other nations, this small nation successfully reduces debt by selling their gold reserves.

In 2022, in our parallel universe, democratic governments, still burdened by debt, and under increasing pressure from voters to reduce this debt, start to fall. It starts in a small way, but gradually voters in medium sized countries are removing existing governments, and replacing them with governments pledging to reduce debt. Historians point out that this has happened before, in Australia, during the early 2000s.

For those long term governments still in power, word starts to leak out of this small, un-named country, whose government successfully hung on to power by selling their gold reserves to reduce debt. One by one, small governments world-wide follow the example of this small, un-named, country, and commence selling their gold reserves.

All goes well for a while. Technical Analysts notice that the gold price, previously threatening to take out all time highs, just can't seem to break those highs. They see a series of lower highs, and lower lows. By the end of 2022 in this parallel universe, the more educated Technical Analysts are calling a bear market in gold. Yet, being focused completely on their charts, they can't work out why the price of gold just can't set new highs.

One sunny Friday evening, at a time just too late for the evening news broadcast, news leaks out of a G20 nation selling all their gold reserves, and applying these funds to reduce debt. The news spreads like a wildfire running ahead of a southerly buster.

By the time Sunday evening arrives, markets are abuzz. No one knows what the price of gold in this parallel universe will do. At 18:00 US Central Time on this warm Sunday evening, the Gold futures market opens limit down. Traders panic. Those remaining G20 governments, now aware of one of their number selling gold reserves, start to dump the metal at any price. Gold futures remain limit down for the next three weeks.

Physical gold markets have tumbled. Those high cost miners are preparing to close operations, waiting for price to settle. Berkshire Hathaway, on the other hand, rejoices as Warren and Charlie see BH's share price go through the roof. Berkshire Hathaway considers closing its massive holding of short gold futures, but waits just a little longer.

It doesn't take too long in this parallel universe, for nations world wide to sell down their gold reserves and pay down debt. Governments not yet voted out start to see an increase in their polling percentages.

Gold, all of a sudden in this parallel universe, has become an industrial metal. Most Economics 101 students realise see their books come to life as supply reduces to match demand. Price normalises at cost of production, and only those efficient debt-free miners survive. Gold becomes a commodity in a buyers market.

.... and, all because, this small, un-named country, caves in to voter pressure and decides to sell its gold reserves.

KH
 
KevinBB said:
In 2022 in a parallel universe, governments world-wide have accumulated a record amount of debt, mainly due to increased spending supporting their economies during the Coronavirus pandemic. With increased vaccination levels, and pressure from citizens, regulation regarding international borders have started to normalise, while trade routes are steadily coming back to normal.

In 2022, still in this parallel universe, these governments are coming under increasing pressure from voters to reduce the mountains of debt, just as they did in the 2000s and 2010s. Voters are starting to get the message across to their elected politicians that they don't want coming generations burdened by this enormous mountain of debt.

What do the politicians do?

Still in this parallel universe, one small, un-named, government caves in to pressure from voters and opposition parties. This un-named government comes up with a novel way of reducing this mountain of debt. Sell their gold reserves. So, quietly, and unobserved by other nations, this small nation successfully reduces debt by selling their gold reserves.

In 2022, in our parallel universe, democratic governments, still burdened by debt, and under increasing pressure from voters to reduce this debt, start to fall. It starts in a small way, but gradually voters in medium sized countries are removing existing governments, and replacing them with governments pledging to reduce debt. Historians point out that this has happened before, in Australia, during the early 2000s.

For those long term governments still in power, word starts to leak out of this small, un-named country, whose government successfully hung on to power by selling their gold reserves to reduce debt. One by one, small governments world-wide follow the example of this small, un-named, country, and commence selling their gold reserves.

All goes well for a while. Technical Analysts notice that the gold price, previously threatening to take out all time highs, just can't seem to break those highs. They see a series of lower highs, and lower lows. By the end of 2022 in this parallel universe, the more educated Technical Analysts are calling a bear market in gold. Yet, being focused completely on their charts, they can't work out why the price of gold just can't set new highs.

One sunny Friday evening, at a time just too late for the evening news broadcast, news leaks out of a G20 nation selling all their gold reserves, and applying these funds to reduce debt. The news spreads like a wildfire running ahead of a southerly buster.

By the time Sunday evening arrives, markets are abuzz. No one knows what the price of gold in this parallel universe will do. At 18:00 US Central Time on this warm Sunday evening, the Gold futures market opens limit down. Traders panic. Those remaining G20 governments, now aware of one of their number selling gold reserves, start to dump the metal at any price. Gold futures remain limit down for the next three weeks.

Physical gold markets have tumbled. Those high cost miners are preparing to close operations, waiting for price to settle. Berkshire Hathaway, on the other hand, rejoices as Warren and Charlie see BH's share price go through the roof. Berkshire Hathaway considers closing its massive holding of short gold futures, but waits just a little longer.

It doesn't take too long in this parallel universe, for nations world wide to sell down their gold reserves and pay down debt. Governments not yet voted out start to see an increase in their polling percentages.

Gold, all of a sudden in this parallel universe, has become an industrial metal. Most Economics 101 students realise see their books come to life as supply reduces to match demand. Price normalises at cost of production, and only those efficient debt-free miners survive. Gold becomes a commodity in a buyers market.

.... and, all because, this small, un-named country, caves in to voter pressure and decides to sell its gold reserves.

KH
Click to expand...
So who's going to buy all the Gold reserves from governments ?

Private citizens ? Investment banks (JP Morgan et al) ?

Nice story for the parallel universe. But don't think it'll happen in this universe. Governments will do what they've always done i.e. to print more money to pay their debt obligations. They've busted through debt ceiling after debt ceiling, so it's unlimited how much they can print. If they're debt repayment is this much (see below), no problemo, they'll just created it electronically via balance sheet manipulation i.e. electronically, so no need to even physically print notes:

$1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.....
 
KevinBB said:
In 2022 in a parallel universe, governments world-wide have accumulated a record amount of debt, mainly due to increased spending supporting their economies during the Coronavirus pandemic. With increased vaccination levels, and pressure from citizens, regulation regarding international borders have started to normalise, while trade routes are steadily coming back to normal.

In 2022, still in this parallel universe, these governments are coming under increasing pressure from voters to reduce the mountains of debt, just as they did in the 2000s and 2010s. Voters are starting to get the message across to their elected politicians that they don't want coming generations burdened by this enormous mountain of debt.

What do the politicians do?

Still in this parallel universe, one small, un-named, government caves in to pressure from voters and opposition parties. This un-named government comes up with a novel way of reducing this mountain of debt. Sell their gold reserves. So, quietly, and unobserved by other nations, this small nation successfully reduces debt by selling their gold reserves.

In 2022, in our parallel universe, democratic governments, still burdened by debt, and under increasing pressure from voters to reduce this debt, start to fall. It starts in a small way, but gradually voters in medium sized countries are removing existing governments, and replacing them with governments pledging to reduce debt. Historians point out that this has happened before, in Australia, during the early 2000s.

For those long term governments still in power, word starts to leak out of this small, un-named country, whose government successfully hung on to power by selling their gold reserves to reduce debt. One by one, small governments world-wide follow the example of this small, un-named, country, and commence selling their gold reserves.

All goes well for a while. Technical Analysts notice that the gold price, previously threatening to take out all time highs, just can't seem to break those highs. They see a series of lower highs, and lower lows. By the end of 2022 in this parallel universe, the more educated Technical Analysts are calling a bear market in gold. Yet, being focused completely on their charts, they can't work out why the price of gold just can't set new highs.

One sunny Friday evening, at a time just too late for the evening news broadcast, news leaks out of a G20 nation selling all their gold reserves, and applying these funds to reduce debt. The news spreads like a wildfire running ahead of a southerly buster.

By the time Sunday evening arrives, markets are abuzz. No one knows what the price of gold in this parallel universe will do. At 18:00 US Central Time on this warm Sunday evening, the Gold futures market opens limit down. Traders panic. Those remaining G20 governments, now aware of one of their number selling gold reserves, start to dump the metal at any price. Gold futures remain limit down for the next three weeks.

Physical gold markets have tumbled. Those high cost miners are preparing to close operations, waiting for price to settle. Berkshire Hathaway, on the other hand, rejoices as Warren and Charlie see BH's share price go through the roof. Berkshire Hathaway considers closing its massive holding of short gold futures, but waits just a little longer.

It doesn't take too long in this parallel universe, for nations world wide to sell down their gold reserves and pay down debt. Governments not yet voted out start to see an increase in their polling percentages.

Gold, all of a sudden in this parallel universe, has become an industrial metal. Most Economics 101 students realise see their books come to life as supply reduces to match demand. Price normalises at cost of production, and only those efficient debt-free miners survive. Gold becomes a commodity in a buyers market.

.... and, all because, this small, un-named country, caves in to voter pressure and decides to sell its gold reserves.

KH
Click to expand...
Yep. o_O




gg
 
There is one hole in this story tho

Voters are starting to get the message across to their elected politicians that they don't want coming generations burdened by this enormous mountain of debt
Click to expand...


And the property market will fall 50% too? After all the boomer's dead skeletons
 
Excuse my delay in replying.

The NQ Cowboys lost against the Sea Eagles and their is a pall over matters here in the hotel not alleviated for me by the band refusing to play Rachmaninoff.

The "Bikini Raffle" after lunch was a bright spot though.

Further to my thoughts of a Chinese malware attack on crypto it would appear that some on this thread appear to believe that Governments behave in a rational manner in crisis. Having had intimate contact with many politicians I can assure you that the opposite is true.

A particular movie favourite of mine is "Death of Stalin" and this unfortunately will be the reaction when Crypto is taken down. Watch it sometime.

Governments freeze in crisis.

Crypto will be subject to a malware attack. It has to be.

Everyone is at it including the Chinese Government.

gg
 
Last edited:
Garpal Gumnut said:
Crypto will be subject to a malware attack. It has to be.


gg
Click to expand...
Is that the same Garpal Gumnut that has had a 'wry eye' on Crypto for the last 10 odd years; back to when BitCoin could be had for $8-10US per coin? I think Charles Ponzi had quite front and centre mention.

An assult on Crypto is an assult on BlockChains security. see below.

www.investopedia.com

Blockchain Facts: What Is It, How It Works, and How It Can Be Used

A blockchain is a digitally distributed, decentralized, public ledger that exists across a network. It is most noteworthy in its use with cryptocurrencies and NFTs.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com

A successful attack/ or network failure would cause concern relative to the seriousness of either... But collapse?? to cause a reversion to gold??

To run with Armando's stylisation; of all the players Lavrenti Beria would be the guy letting loose the malware, he has an assortment ready for any and all occasions, only to find out he'll be sorted out like a 'flesh lump in a waistcut' when the rest of the boy's have to cobble a responce together.. And then the whole show will crumble on.

My view of the threat to Crypto value is that they; crypto-Coins, NFT's. Is that they are manufactured out of nothing but code... Is there any shortage of that?? and who can make it?.... I mean Doge was literally created as a joke.
This stuff has value because it has utlity... It's beyond me to know what that value is.
 
** Crypto will be subject to a malware attack. It has to be. **

if stored with internet/network access absolutely ( it is all about the size of the prize )

however if exchanged by a non-networked device between two static storage devices , maybe not , but if done that way does the block-chain tech work ( to verify the transfer ?? )

don't know the answer , i stopped researching cryptos when i realized government jealousy would be the major problem ( missing out on all those delightful fees and taxes and control )

but why China ?? there are plenty of bad actors in any nation , you don't need a super IQ the be a cracker , just persistence and normal IQ , some of the most famous were school age when they were the peak of their 'fame '
 
aus_trader said:
So who's going to buy all the Gold reserves from governments ?

Private citizens ? Investment banks (JP Morgan et al) ?

Nice story for the parallel universe. But don't think it'll happen in this universe. Governments will do what they've always done i.e. to print more money to pay their debt obligations. They've busted through debt ceiling after debt ceiling, so it's unlimited how much they can print. If they're debt repayment is this much (see below), no problemo, they'll just created it electronically via balance sheet manipulation i.e. electronically, so no need to even physically print notes:

$1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.....
Click to expand...
who says the government own the gold ( except maybe Russia and China )

most are up to their eyeballs in debt , and any serious creditor would be nuts to take security in the local currency

i suspect there would be some sort of claim on the national gold( or silver ) reserves as a surety
 
Top