ETPMAG - ETFS Physical Silver ETF

[Sean K]

Could this be a C&H? Target $56 ish?

Maybe I'm dreamin.

 

[wayneL]

@Sean K I'm getting a bit of wood

I am in @29.76 which was a bit of an afterthought/FOMO at the time TBH and have just kept holding which is sorta against my style.

Interesting juncture in spot POS too, at resistance, or about to break the @#$& out?

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K I'm getting a bit of wood

I am in @29.76 which was a bit of an afterthought/FOMO at the time TBH and have just kept holding which is sorta against my style.

Interesting juncture in spot POS too, at resistance, or about to break the @#$& out?

This is pretty compelling. Might be just the start. A PM explosion might be on the cards.

There's even an inverse H&S there if you dare to dream.

Saddle up.

 

[Sean K]

Silver pushing to 30 bucks but it has a big problem with that number. Might equate to 45 on the ETPMAG. It would be very nice if it goes through and flies to the moon.

Eric Sprott out ramping silver last week and spreading conspiracies about some influential players keeping the price under $30 for some reason. Probably blaming JPM or Deutsche. But, he was calling for $200 silver recently as well so he must have quite a position.

 

[Sean K]

Silver now at 11 year high taking ETPMAG with it. Punters waiting for a pullback might have missed the boat, but there has to be some healthy consolidation soon. Not sure how/why JPM and the Chinese have let the price run away from them. Maybe they've bought enough themselves.

 

[ducati916]

Some silver fundamentals:

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K I'm getting a bit of wood

I woke up this morning the same way.

 

[Sean K]

This has done OK since breaking up earlier in the year. Stalled for a few months, which was nice and healthy, but now looks like it could really bust up. With the other instruments breaking up to long time highs with a 6 or so % gain Friday night, I guess that's a $2.50 gain for this on the open.

Like with gold, it'd be nice to see an orderly rise with some healthy consolidation and support built on the way, but it looks like the general market might have caught up with us and FOMO is kicking in.

 

[Sdajii]

This has done OK since breaking up earlier in the year. Stalled for a few months, which was nice and healthy, but now looks like it could really bust up. With the other instruments breaking up to long time highs with a 6 or so % gain Friday night, I guess that's a $2.50 gain for this on the open.

Like with gold, it'd be nice to see an orderly rise with some healthy consolidation and support built on the way, but it looks like the general market might have caught up with us and FOMO is kicking in.

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Be careful how you interpret Friday night gains. It was a fantastic rally to a new all time high on gold and 10 year high for silver, but don't expect these prices to hold on Monday morning. Look at silver's chart, the recent highs have all been on Friday nights followed by drops on Monday morning. We see a similar pattern for gold (not surprising, silver follows gold and they have coinciding peaks and lows).

People tend to go for safe havens over the weekend, so their money gets parked in precious metals for two days while the markets are closed, and then on Monday mornings they sell out and play in more risky games while the market is open and allows it. Take a look at the chart and you'll see this regular pattern.

It's fantastic to see this Friday night rally go higher than any other in many years, but it's still a Friday night rally which will probably retrace on Monday. It will probably be the highest Monday morning for many years, but not a 6% gain on 4.10PM Friday Sydney/Melbourne time. I'm very happy to be wrong and see this rally continue on Monday, but it would be an exception to a very regular pattern.

 

[Sean K]

Be careful how you interpret Friday night gains. It was a fantastic rally to a new all time high on gold and 10 year high for silver, but don't expect these prices to hold on Monday morning. Look at silver's chart, the recent highs have all been on Friday nights followed by drops on Monday morning. We see a similar pattern for gold (not surprising, silver follows gold and they have coinciding peaks and lows).

People tend to go for safe havens over the weekend, so their money gets parked in precious metals for two days while the markets are closed, and then on Monday mornings they sell out and play in more risky games while the market is open and allows it. Take a look at the chart and you'll see this regular pattern.

It's fantastic to see this Friday night rally go higher than any other in many years, but it's still a Friday night rally which will probably retrace on Monday. It will probably be the highest Monday morning for many years, but not a 6% gain on 4.10PM Friday Sydney/Melbourne time. I'm very happy to be wrong and see this rally continue on Monday, but it would be an exception to a very regular pattern.

There's every chance it could break up and then fade. Might depend on if Israel drop a few bombs on Tehran over the weekend too. Any short term pullbacks look like buying opportunities in PMs at the moment.

 

[Sdajii]

There's every chance it could break up and then fade. Might depend on if Israel drop a few bombs on Tehran over the weekend too. Any short term pullbacks look like buying opportunities in PMs at the moment.

It's not impossible. If Israel decides to drop bombs on Tehran this weekend, sure, your 6% increase on EPTMAG might be an underestimate.

I totally agree that pullbacks on precious metals are probably good buying opportunities at the moment. Holding a fair chunk of EPTMAG over here. Not looking to top up, but if I wasn't already fully stocked I might be.

 

[Sean K]

This has been tracking along nicely for a while now. Silver tipped to follow POG going forward.

All signs seem pretty positive for mid to long term gains on PMs. Interesting that some of the major government bank holdings seem to be running out of bullion to hand over on demand. Not sure how that translates to price movement if there's a significant run on physical. Must be good for the price, right.

Also noted that one of the key players out of The Big Short has taken up some significant positions in gold as a 'short' on the general markets.

 

[wayneL]

This has been tracking along nicely for a while now. Silver tipped to follow POG going forward.

All signs seem pretty positive for mid to long term gains on PMs. Interesting that some of the major government bank holdings seem to be running out of bullion to hand over on demand. Not sure how that translates to price movement if there's a significant run on physical. Must be good for the price, right.

Also noted that one of the key players out of The Big Short has taken up some significant positions in gold as a 'short' on the general markets.

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Still holding position. To be honest I haven't even looked them for weeks as I am overweight PMs, the scrip just sitting in the bottom drawer.... Can we even say that anymore in the digital age?

 

[Sean K]

Still holding position. To be honest I haven't even looked them for weeks as I am overweight PMs, the scrip just sitting in the bottom drawer.... Can we even say that anymore in the digital age?

You must be watching at the moment Wayne? Looking very positive to me, which means it'll all come tumbling down.

ETPMAG hit ATH 50 bucks for a split second yesterday.

 

[wayneL]

You must be watching at the moment Wayne? Looking very positive to me, which means it'll all come tumbling down.

ETPMAG hit ATH 50 bucks for a split second yesterday.

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Yeah, wishing I had the cajones to have bought more though.... Will have to send the crystal ball in for a service.

But happy with the W nonetheless.

One of my clients is a manufacturing jeweller. Was there on Tuesday and although they are holus bolus into physical gold and little silver, we were both basking in the warm glow of PM gains.... and I did have a little brag about ETPMAG.

 

[Sean K]

Oh yeah, forgot SSR, half of which used to be Silver Standard Resources, a company dedicated to silver.
SSR have Marigold, a shovel and truck heap leach mine in Nevada, quite profitable even at today's prices. Long life and will add through exploration as shown by recent announcement.
Moreover they hold Pitarilla in Mexico with a feasibility done in 2012 and a projected 32 year mine life. Silver-Lead-Zinc with 500mozs Ag at measured/indicated level. BetweentheLines Finance reckons they'll sell it off at better silver prices.

I was looking back through this thread and just realised why I bought SSR. YIKES!!

 

[Sean K]

Silver still lagging gold. Will catch up one day.

PMGOLD is the green line.

Long term monthly:

6 month daily:

 

[Sdajii]

Silver still lagging gold. Will catch up one day.

PMGOLD is the green line.

Long term monthly:

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6 month daily:

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Why do you think it will catch up one day? More and more over the last year I'm thinking it never will. Only gold is gold. Gold's value is completely irrational. It's valuable because we say it is. There are historical reasons for that sentimental nonsense, but it's sentimental nonsense. It gets worn as a trophy/status symbol or stored in bars. Silver is more of an industrial metal with a tangible commodity value. Sure, it has some sentimental value as a precious metal, but not to anywhere near the same extent.

As soon as one of them has a distinctly higher status as a precious metal, that difference will only grow. Think about it. Once one of them is going to grow more in value just because the crowd says it will, that's the one everyone will go for, which makes it actually happen, which confirms the perception which increases the amount more people will do it and so on in an ever-increasing spiral.

Silver and gold maintained a ratio for centuries and it's only in fairly recent history that it really changed. No one was playing around with silver in electronics 200 or 2000 years ago. Gold and silver were just decorative and stores of wealth. That lasted thousands of years and that really set a psychological perception, which is only in recent decades being broken and changed, but gold is now clearly the dominant precious metal. Not platinum, not silver. The gap is only going to grow, not close. We may see fluctuations etc along the way, but big picture that gap is going to grow, we're going to see a dissociation.