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End of the China bull?

Discussion in 'International Markets' started by Uncle Festivus, Feb 1, 2008.

  1. Real1ty

    Real1ty

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    Is a slow paddler....
     

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  2. yjtrader

    yjtrader

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    hehehe :D
     
  3. Mr J

    Mr J

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    I always loved this one.
     

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  4. sinner

    sinner

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    Took a month, but this distribution finally played out on Friday and retested today.

    China led on the way up, will it lead on the way down? I am extremely bearish.

    PS: For anyone reading this who has an IB account, what sort of spreads do you get on HSI futs?
     

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  5. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Highly unconfirmed rumour that Chinese government holds up the market before the National Day holidays (1 Oct and rest of week), and the big falls will come soon...

    Take what you care from that.
     
  6. Aussiejeff

    Aussiejeff

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    Can you unconfirm that?
     
  7. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Of course not! What does "highly unconfirmed" mean to you? :)

    I just heard that from some local punters in Hong Kong.
     
  8. wildkactus

    wildkactus

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    I have heard that up here as well, but don't no how true it is/was.
    a lot if it coming from the bars where the traders / bankers hang out.

    the chinese gov does have a lot of cash to throw around though and they like everything to be all pretty for their national days, this one is a biggy as it is 60 years since Mao started the PRC.

    Happy Trading
     
  9. Aussiejeff

    Aussiejeff

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    UP THE REDS!!!

    :D :D :D
     
  10. Uncle Festivus

    Uncle Festivus

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    Just think - if you are Chinese and someone says to you 'you are 1 in a million' then you share that with 1500 other 'unique' Chinese......

    http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/58114,business,hedge-funder-chanos-predicts-chinas-collapse

    http://www.icis.com/blogs/asian-chemical-connections/2010/01/china-govts-actions-critical-f.html
     
  11. Unnamed User

    Unnamed User

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    Not really a poster but more of a reader but had to make comment here.

    So 2 years on from your original post that we may have seen the end of the China growth story, and we clearly haven't at this stage, so why would now be any different?

    Of course if you throw enough darts at the board you will always hit a Bulls Eye eventually :jump:

    China was effected during the GFC to some extent just like the rest of the world but has powered on like many other Asian countries and while there are always those that like to question the figures released so far they are wrong and does anyone actually want to wait around (and miss opportunities) while they throw dart after dart while muttering under their breath "This dart won't miss".......
     
  12. Uncle Festivus

    Uncle Festivus

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    The time scale is irrelevant, but what is relevant is that China will continue on the same course while ever it has a vault full of $USD I-O-U's. This will continue to be the source of even more overproduction and eventually a glut. The idea that the domestic economy will somehow take up the export reduction slack and become some sort of self fulfilling positive cycle is itself short on logic and common-sense.

    Also too is that while ever they have artificial markets in just about everything, ie they do not allow the market to find equilibrium, then they are setting themselves up for a fall, possibly THE fall that will take down the rest of the global economy with it, esp Australia. I'm sure if we were to peg our currency at 30c to the USD we would be a dominant exporter too? They just aren't playing on the same field as everybody else, and the political structure continues to facilitate the inefficiencies and corruption that both hides the truth behind the 'amazing' figures that come out and the parlous real state of affairs behind the scenes?

    The LME data indicates to me that they have already had their fill of the commodities that they need for now, building redundant infrastructures and stockpiling finished goods that nobody wants to buy. You only have to go shopping to see that, if you are smart enough to haggle, that retailers are desperate to shift stuff, even at cost and sometimes loss.

    In summary - too many depreciating $USD's flowing into hard assets before they become worthless, creating bubbles and overproduction. Australia will be hit hard?

    It's only a matter of time, but that is the unknown, as always. IMHO:D
     
  13. Aussiejeff

    Aussiejeff

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    IMO what IS a known fact is that the World's "Population Bubble" is THE one biggy that is propping all other "bubbles" up.

    As long as the World Pop Charts keep heading skywards, demand for pretty much everything is at least maintained or rapidly increased as well.

    Without the current rapid World Pop Growth, most other related "growth bubbles" (economic / financial / RE etc) would almost certainly *POP* - some for good.

    "Populate or (have your economy) perish" is even more desirable now than ever.

    Is everyone here holding up their end in that regard?? :D

    Chairman KRudd is onto this and will see us right with a massive boost to immigration to ward off any economic demons...
     
  14. Unnamed User

    Unnamed User

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    The timescale is irrelevant?

    So you can just make a call and in 15 years you are right?

    My question still stands and you didn't answer it.

    Why is anything different now, 2 years after your first wrong call?

    All the above reasons you have given were all applicable 2 years ago, so what is different now.

    I agree with your call on Commodities, in the short term only and AussieJeff makes some good points imo.
     
  15. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    You lot sound like i did when i first moved here:D. I thought 'this can't continue', but you can still see so many people upgrading their living conditions, spending their ample savings. Enjoying life as we have for the last 70 years, and getting into debt, yes.

    This is China's day, get used to it. Asia is the new economic superpower and we are trading with our partners in Asia very actively.

    North America is doomed to consume more than it produces forever, unless that weak dollar finally kicks in.

    Cheers,


    CanOz
     
  16. Uncle Festivus

    Uncle Festivus

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    Well yes, the timeframe is unknown, but if you see a car going down the street with only 1 wheel nut you know eventually what will happen? The thread title ends with a question mark and my posts are my interpretation & discussion of what may happen in the future based on ecological (desertification) & financial <sustainability> or lack there of ?

    Commodities - short term? Timescale? FYI have a look at the LME wharehouse stocks at this site

    http://www.infomine.com/commodities/

    if there really was an insatiable hunger by China for commodities then the stockpiles would be scraping along the bottom? It tells me that they have had their fill, the system is saturated and is waiting for global consumption to resume?

    And good to see you are contributing to the ASF community now :D

    That's the problem then - consuming more than production? The only way it can do this is by having the worlds default currency. The US is a large importer of Chinese goods. Employment is now back to the same level it was 10 years ago. The most generous predictions by economists say they might create 1 million jobs this year, if the so called recovery eventuates. In the meantime consumption of Chinese goods stays low, tax reciepts keep dropping and expenditure keeps going up.

    Simple supply demand mathematics, with dodgy data? It will catch up in the end ie when the reserves dry up? Japan was held in the same regard 20 years ago, and they are still a basket case - convergent capitalism - you can only submit your consumers to an ultimate debt to income ratio before they say no more living beyond our means, a la Japan, the US the UK, Spain, Greece, Iceland ad infinitum? Who then buys the Chinese stuff?

    There is also the remote possiblity that should something happen in China ie pandemic, civil war over the haves & have nots etc that because it is the worlds manufacturer there could be a big void in supply? Developed countries have little or no manufacturing of this type anymore.
     
  17. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    Uncle, you think too much. Just because things should do something, doesn't mean they will.

    Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?! The questions is....can you profit from it?

    CanOz
     
  18. Uncle Festivus

    Uncle Festivus

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    Yes I can, and do.

    And I do care what happens because it will decide the lifestyle of my friends and family long after I'm gone.

    But, as I can see my views upset a lot of people I shall no longer visit ASF anymore. I wish you all good luck.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crisis-expert-says-chinas-boom-to-end-soon-2010-01-16?pagenumber=1
     
  19. Aussiejeff

    Aussiejeff

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    Sorry to hear that Unc. Thanks for raising your side of the argument. Without two sides, there is no debate.... :(

    Seems the polarization of opinions in the aftermath of the GFC is still increasing to the point where many "moderate" pundits are giving up offering any opinion at all.

    Soon the forums will be populated only by hardliners from both sides.

    I myself am a rare visitor now - seems I may as well be pissing into the wind with anything other than a cynical remark or two regarding the follies of the human condition..

    Ciao and good luck then!

    I for one would welcome you back anytime.


    aj
     
  20. Macquack

    Macquack

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    Obviously you do CanOz, you do live there.

    What is it with you expats? You get a good paying job, embrace the new culture and then the new motherland's ideologies become gospel and the country where you came from are just a bunch of nongs.

    BTW, Uncle Festivus please come back, ASF is turning into a running of the bulls festival.
     
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