Elliott Wave Software?

Porper said:

Discretion is a big part of any software proving set-ups and MT Predictor is no different. I use it to scan almost everyday, especially for wave-4's as the prior trend should be strong. In other words a continuation set-up.

It would be impossible to backtest as you manually have to disregard the "obvious" incorrect counts. I think you need a good understanding of the Wave Theory to use any software offering wave counts as they can only do this by using algorithms.

I use Dynamic Trader as my main software program but for the E.Wave scans MT is much better i.m.o.

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Thanks Porper. I'd been looking at the MT Predictor website and they had some good stats there under the performance tab for trades on the YM, so I figured that was purely mechanical. http://www.mtpredictor.com/performance

Gringotts Bank said:

Thanks Porper. I'd been looking at the MT Predictor website and they had some good stats there under the performance tab for trades on the YM, so I figured that was purely mechanical. http://www.mtpredictor.com/performance

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I would be extremely skeptical of those results. As they state, they are "hypothetical". Not sure how they could prove those results either as they didn't trade in real time.

Porper said:

I would be extremely skeptical of those results. As they state, they are "hypothetical". Not sure how they could prove those results either as they didn't trade in real time.

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I am skeptical. Still, doesn't hurt to investigate. I recently heard of a software that costs $100,000 up front + $20,000 annual fee. It's very complex and sophisticated Machine Learning software, and it's obvious a heck of a lot of work went into it. Only one problem - it doesn't make money. It was sold to hedge funds.

Gringotts Bank said:

Boggo, is MT Predictor still your main tool for trading?
How profitable has it been for you when used on Forex?
What degree of discretion is required?

Thanks

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Caution - long post coming up

For realtime Forex etc data the new version of the software is excellent. I can import from numerous free sources such as trials of MetaTrader etc and the charts and signals appear in real time.
At one point I had actually doubled the value of my Forex account just using MTPredictor (have given a bit back over the last few weeks though).
I have difficulty just sitting here waiting for something to happen so my short term trading is limited.

It has proven (to me anyway) that the software definitely can produce a profit but any performance results can only be based on past trades and two out of three of the auto signals generally fail the eyeball test or the two timeframes test so you really have to know what you are looking for to appear, impossible to test.

Metastock is my main EOD tool but I use MTPredictor give me another picture particularly on breakouts where I need to get an idea of where a stock may be in a possible life cycle.
What I mean by life cycle is where might the breakout be, is it the start of a W3 or or a W5 which may have limited upside but can look good on a breakout chart.

I will try to explain with some charts.
The first chart below is FMG, my Metastock signals appeared just above 4.70 but from the EW pattern perspective I could see that this could have a limited future and with MTPredictor I could put an approximate target on where the upward might end so this gives me another view of FMG. It went slightly through the target and then hesitated and then generated a sell signal at that point on both the daily and weekly chart, the rest is history.
(tech/a - if you read this post I would be interested in where AGET would place its MOB target on that upturn).
Note that FMG has actually got a reversal of trend Decision Point on the last bar so lets see how this pans out.

The second and third charts below are Weekly and Daily of AGK.
On the Weekly chart of AGK we got a buy signal (TS3) where everything looked good and the potential target made it worthwhile.
It got to its target, came off and then on the daily it generated a sell signal (TS1) which would have placed a different view on a potential turn back up. From the daily chart below you can see the outcome after that signal.

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Thanks for that post boggo.

Boggo

Not sure which one you wanted.
So here are a few.

FMG

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tech/a said:

Boggo

Not sure which one you wanted.
So here are a few.

FMG

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Actually that is good having all three points to compare. The only difference is the lateral (time) position of the first downtrend minimum target, all three levels in the vertical (price) seem to be the same the same.

Thanks for that.

Just a slightly off topic example with the short term projection for FMG.

Personally I would like to see it on the other side of $4 but lets see what it does anyway.

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Follow on from post above, off topic slightly.
FMG got close today, no cigar just yet though.

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Porper said:

Discretion is a big part of any software proving set-ups and MT Predictor is no different. I use it to scan almost everyday, especially for wave-4's as the prior trend should be strong. In other words a continuation set-up.

It would be impossible to backtest as you manually have to disregard the "obvious" incorrect counts. I think you need a good understanding of the Wave Theory to use any software offering wave counts as they can only do this by using algorithms.

I use Dynamic Trader as my main software program but for the E.Wave scans MT is much better i.m.o.

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Follow on from Porper's post, this is one example of how one piece of EW software can work but it definitely requires an understanding of the subject though to eliminate the chaff.

Having said that I should have taken this trade
FMG hesitating "in the box".

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MotiveWave
I like the ergonomics and functionally of this program.
Trialing it at the moment. I would recommend it for Australia uses etrade, interactive brokers.
Trade off screen. marketdepth on screen. Scan. EW counts.
Also has csv import files. So import metstock EOD. files. Tried that but then I can't get the Google/yahho intrady or EOD updates to wor. 21 day trial sp will kepp on investing this.
Here is snapshot

Looks average.
The charts chosen are poor examples.
Software will try to find a count even when there isn't one.
It appears that it doesn't conform to some of the principals
Of Elliott
Like wave 3 cannot be the Shortest wave
Or wave 4 cannot be lower than wave 1

Any Elliott software is useless unless you know how to apply
It to profitable trading. What is a valid count.
If a scan actually picks up a genuine prospect.

tech/a said:

Looks average.
The charts chosen are poor examples.
Software will try to find a count even when there isn't one.
It appears that it doesn't conform to some of the principals
Of Elliott
Like wave 3 cannot be the Shortest wave
Or wave 4 cannot be lower than wave 1

Any Elliott software is useless unless you know how to apply
It to profitable trading. What is a valid count.
If a scan actually picks up a genuine prospect.

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OK. I just scanned 320 stocks for EW daily wave 3
here is BHP. What is your analysis of this.

metabe said:

MotiveWave
I like the ergonomics and functionally of this program.
Trialing it at the moment. I would recommend it for Australia uses etrade, interactive brokers.
Trade off screen. marketdepth on screen. Scan. EW counts.
Also has csv import files. So import metstock EOD. files. Tried that but then I can't get the Google/yahho intrady or EOD updates to wor. 21 day trial sp will kepp on investing this.
Here is snapshot
View attachment 55515

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I am not a great fan of software making counts as they are often incorrect. The examples here are dubious to say the least. Just had a look at their website for a bit of fun and my virus scanner blocked threats instantly!! Beware everybody. That aside the program looks poor quality...at first glance. That's all it's getting from me...one glance.

The chart you have shown is in a corrective pattern.
Near impossible by itself to make any intelligent trading decision from.

There is a good trade here but not on this chart.
As a technical analyse we must be aware of the whole
picture not just a snippet. This snippet is of no value.

Lets look at a couple that do have good value!
And a MUCH clearer technical story to tell.

Click to expand.



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The software is ADVANCED GET.

Porper said:

I am not a great fan of software making counts as they are often incorrect. The examples here are dubious to say the least. Just had a look at their website for a bit of fun and my virus scanner blocked threats instantly!! Beware everybody. That aside the program looks poor quality...at first glance. That's all it's getting from me...one glance.

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I agree.
But I don't agree that it makes all software related to Elliott invalid or of no use.

I don't think counts need to be perfectly text book,even manual counts as you well know
can be numbered in a few different counts. is one more correct than the other? Only in time does this become apparent --- sometimes never.

My view is that a count should never be forced upon a chart as the software will do.
If like you and I can recognize a count which is obviously forced---we would not even consider it as a trade.
But I think the example of BHP and a better analysis than the daily---has some very good value.
Will watch this over the coming months!

Then chastise myself that I didn't buy a few 1000
Of course the analysis is wrong if the triangle fails to form.
IE Trading well below the $30 support.
Don't think that's going to happen.

Porper said:

I am not a great fan of software making counts as they are often incorrect. The examples here are dubious to say the least. Just had a look at their website for a bit of fun and my virus scanner blocked threats instantly!! Beware everybody. That aside the program looks poor quality...at first glance. That's all it's getting from me...one glance.

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It is very easy to use. That is the point. I trialed Beyond charts and it does not update weekly bar until friday,
and monthly bar until the end of the month. and they want $500 plus data.
It is just connected to the internet with the only data feed google/yahoo.
Lloaded 250 bars for each stock and scanned.
Here is the weekly chart. Precicts the price zone and time zone very well.
Putting these charts up to see what happens and for all to verify and check the results in due time.

metabe said:

It is very easy to use. That is the point. I trialed Beyond charts and it does not update weekly bar until friday,
and monthly bar until the end of the month. and they want $500 plus data.
It is just connected to the internet with the only data feed google/yahoo.
Lloaded 250 bars for each stock and scanned.
Here is the weekly chart. Precicts the price zone and time zone very well.
Putting these charts up to see what happens and for all to verify and check the results in due time.

View attachment 55521

Click to expand...

If you're happy with what you have, fine. If considering a change, TASC magazine has an annual reader's choice awards which is really good.

TechA

THE MotiveWave software predicts BHP to Peak at wave 2 price around $45 and start the downward leg for waves 3,4, 5. Hence it should never hit $50 will be below 30 in a couple of years possibly 20.

I 'm not into EW. I use multiple times. Long tem time BHP stopped by 200ma weekly at $38. $41 is my top. Short term looks up.

metabe said:

TechA

THE MotiveWave software predicts BHP to Peak at wave 2 price around $45 and start the downward leg for waves 3,4, 5. Hence it should never hit $50 will be below 30 in a couple of years possibly 20.

I 'm not into EW. I use multiple times. Long tem time BHP stopped by 200ma weekly at $38. $41 is my top. Short term looks up.

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If your using multiple time frames then your not seeing a great deal.
What do you mean "Stopped by the weekly 200 ma?"

You need to understand Elliott

A wave 2 is not a peak bar count.
It is a 5 wave count to the upside not a short wave count!!
Wave 2 is a part of a 5 wave count.

Elliott wave counts are dynamic and as such confuse the hell out of mere mortals when the counts actually change if price action doesn't conform to the current count.
The software seems to be a copy of the algos used by good Elliott Software.
AGET being the best in my opinion.
Just as others have tried to copy VSA.
OK but just not quite there.