This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Dump it Here

Jump to new


The HappyCat Strategy: Why I’m Focusing on Exploration Signals
This is my final post comparing Backtest and Exploration Signals for the HappyCat Strategy. My goal was to compare their equity curves and weekly signals to understand their strengths. After reflection, I’m sticking with reporting only the Exploration Signals for trading.

Trading Summary
The Backtest Signals Trading Results: $35,668
The Exploration Analysis Signals Trading Results: $29,405

The HappyCat Backtest Dashboard
The dashboard reflects the trading results as of the close yesterday, the 2nd of September 2025. The trading results for the Exploration Signals will be in the next posts.









Skate.
 


The HappyCat Exploration Dashboard
The exploration dashboard displays the trading results for the HappyCat Exploration Signals, updated through the market close yesterday, the 2nd of September, 2025.

1. The Backtest Signals Trading Results: $35,668
2. The Exploration Analysis Signals Trading Results: $29,405

Strategy Control
While the results of the Exploration Signals may not be as profitable as the Backtest Signals, the purpose of this exercise isn't to maximise profit. Instead, it's to demonstrate how to maintain complete control and discipline by keeping trading activity strictly within the defined HappyCat Strategy logic.

The HappyCat Exploration Dashboard









Skate.
 


Taking Profits: My Approach to Securing Gains
Take-profit stops lock in gains before reversals hit. The trade-off? You might miss additional upside if prices keep climbing. For me, that's acceptable because I prioritise control over hoping for the best.

A take-profit stop is a tool
I treat take-profit stops as essential risk management tools. While "let profits run" works for trend-following systems chasing big moves, my priority is capital preservation. Predefined profit targets ensure systematic, emotion-free exits instead of leaving money on the table through poor timing or market whims.

Conclusion
Consistent, modest gains beat the uncertainty of holding for maximum profits - at least in my book.






Skate.
 
backtest vs exploration
my system recently had a buy on a share which had just jumped wildly..because it was taken over.
Deal was over, money would be locked for months .no system should enter then .
Exploration signal entt allows you to bypass that and buy the next in line
But as per recent experience, where do you draw the line and stop this intervention, deviation?
that's a fine line
my current system bought some WAF, a stock which was on my blacklist as per numerous posts on the WAF thread..as is MSB for example and multiple others, but we are system trading so i entered, as i would with MSB..and pay the price..when as soon as trading halt is release
yet if you start putting your bias, no iron now, or no gold, no bank, whatever, where do you stop....
 
qldfrog said:
Exploration signal entt allows you to bypass that and buy the next in line
But as per recent experience, where do you draw the line and stop this intervention, deviation?
that's a fine line
Click to expand...

@qldfrog, you've hit on a core challenge in systematic trading - balancing the strict rules of a strategy with the need to adapt to unique, real-time events.

The Fine Line
Intervening to skip a trade can feel like a smart move, but the moment that intervention comes from a hunch or personal bias, you risk undermining the discipline that makes systematic trading effective. It's a fine line, as you said. If you start layering in too many subjective filters, you're no longer a systematic trader - you're just trading your biases.

Refine your Rules
The solution is to turn your real-time insights into new rules, making your system smarter and more robust.

Skate.
 


A Disciplined Trading Journey
What happens when emotion is completely removed from trading? The HappyCat Strategy is a 20-week paper trading exercise designed to answer that question. This isn't about chasing maximum profits, but to demonstrate how strictly following a mechanical, rule-based system can lead to consistent and controlled results. Every trade is executed without second-guessing or emotional overrides. The HappyCat Exploration Dashboard shares the latest performance metrics, including wins, losses, and everything in between, offering a transparent view of the strategy’s progress.
















This Week's Exploration Raw Signals


Skate.
 
rolly1 said:
I noticed when you ran it live was a pretty bullish market out of the covid lows.
Click to expand...



Reality Check:
After 10 weeks the HappyCat Strategy has returned solid results. I need to address the elephant in the room: "Paper trading results in a Bull Market" that @rolly1 has alluded to.

The Current Market Context:
1. The XAO daily price chart has been in a clear uptrend since early July.
2. Any trend-following system "trading over this period" would also look like a genius trading strategy right now.

The price chart reflects the paper trading period



Why These Results Need Context:
The HappyCat strategy is a trend-following system, and trends have been abundant. Normally, trend-following systems are notoriously late to exit a position, which the HappyCat Strategy tries to address.

The Real Test Ahead:
Until the HappyCat faces a proper market stress test - whether that's a correction, extended consolidation, or volatility spike - these results should be taken with a "grain of salt". The results are promising but not conclusive. The true measure of any trading system isn't how it performs when everything goes right, but how it handles adversity.

Moving Forward:
I'm continuing to track performance and will be especially focused on how the strategy adapts when market conditions inevitably change. The current results are encouraging, but I'm keeping my expectations realistic until we see how it performs in different market environments.

Skate.
 
indeed, one of the reasons i try to compare my portfolios performances to xjt
or get an xao % change on the backtest period
 
Why Market Breadth is a Game Changer
Ever cheered as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow hit all-time highs, only to sense trouble brewing on the ASX, that’s negative breadth at work when indices climb, but most stocks are slipping. It’s a sign the rally’s driven by a few heavyweights, hiding broader market fragility.

ASX Traders, Take Note
Equal-weight breadth indicators cut through the noise, revealing the true market pulse beyond headline figures. Strong breadth drives sustainable gains while weak breadth flags potential reversals.

Trade smarter and make a breadth your friend to stay ahead!

Skate.
 

A Disciplined Path to Consistency
What happens when you strip emotion from trading? The HappyCat Strategy, a 20-week paper trading experiment, answers that question with a mechanical, rule-based approach. It’s not about chasing big wins but proving that disciplined execution can deliver steady, predictable results—even in low-volatility markets. Each trade follows strict rules, free from hesitation or emotional interference. Check the HappyCat Exploration Dashboard for the latest performance metrics, including wins, losses, and a clear, transparent view of the strategy’s journey.


















The HappyCat Performance
Without a true stress test, whether it be a market correction, prolonged consolidation, or a surge in volatility, these promising results remain unproven. The real test of any trading system lies not in its performance during smooth sailing, but in its resilience when markets turn tough, proving itself under pressure.

Skate.
 
Systematic Trend Trading: Precision Exits & Breadth Filters
Trading isn't gambling - it's a calculated risk. The happyCat weekly trend-following system uses clear entry and exit rules. By trading every week, the system effectively balances out the daily noise and provides a clearer picture of sustained trends.

One challenge is false breakouts
Breakouts often fail due to short-term momentum or speculative trading rather than sustained, market-wide trends. To counter this, an equal-weighted breadth filter is applied. You only enter a trade when at least 40% of the XAO are rising, which helps ensure that there is broader market strength and reduces the number of false signals.

The key to profits is using precision exits
Holding on for too long can cause gains to evaporate. While a breadth filter helps, it can still be difficult to understand why some price movements occur, as market sentiment can be tricky and company prices may shift without clear reasons.

Skate.
 


Trading What You Test: The Power of Backtest Signals
I've been using two ways to generate trading signals in Amibroker, but I'm finding the most reliable method is to trade directly from the backtest engine.

Exploration Analysis
This method is great for finding signals and getting a pre-auction list. I use it to find candidates and calculate my share allocation with a 3% premium. But sometimes, these signals can be different from what the backtest shows.

The backtest engine is different
It's not just a screener - it's a true portfolio simulator. It knows your capital and how your positions interact. Trading signals from the backtest ensure you're following the exact rules of your tested system. This removes emotion and keeps you disciplined.

Summary
When you trade backtest signals, you’re live-testing the same performance that generated your equity curve. It’s the purest form of systematic trading.






Skate.
 
Skate said:
gambling - it's a calculated risk.
Click to expand...


that is what i used to tell my detractors when i was punting on the race-tracks

sure that 10-1 shot MIGHT break a leg , the jockey/driver MIGHT fall off ( etc etc. ) but there are certain tail-winds ( the distance , the track , others over-estimate the rivals ) when you select thoughtfully

and as such it is a percentage game ( the unexpected can always happen ) but if you get paid 10-1 for a 50/50 chance ( or better ) do you take that risk ( the major downside risk is the next outing despite you failing to collect this time the payout will be drastically reduced )

now a very ( mathematically ) savvy Pakistani bloke i new would bet MOST of the field in doubles and trebles but weight it so that IF he collected he always won ( and had a 90% success rate when i knew him )

but of course neither of us could do that every week/race-day , you had to watch and wait for those opportunities to arrive

one major flaw in back-testing ( and paper-trading ) is it assumes your order is always filled when a price target is hit ( that AIN'T always so in the real world )
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

June 2025 DDD
3 4 5
Replies
80
Views
10K
Garpal Gumnut
R
My strategy/plan going forward
4 5 6
Replies
107
Views
14K
divs4ever
Very nice Rain here today
4 5 6
Replies
105
Views
10K
farmerge
Fun with ChatGPT
2
Replies
24
Views
4K
SirRumpole
May DDD 2025
2 3
Replies
56
Views
9K
ducati916
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...