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Trendnomics said:
Still seeing all these statistically insignificant back-tests....

Remember the Hasard Cat Daily Strategy kicked similar goals....
Click to expand...
These statistically insignificant backtests are sadly spot-on, both for the rises, and in my case this week for the carnage in small cap explorers and miners but we had a long exchangen.
Proper backtest need random check,bias removal via historical data,realm choice and proper optimisation but is doable.just be cautious
 

By "statistically insignificant back-tests" I'm inferring that most of the back-tests posted are over short periods (mostly a year), thus statistically insignificant - Hasard Cat did well over similar periods (i.e. tests being posted are over a very very favorable period).

I've tested most of the strategies (renditions off) posted in this thread over much longer periods - none are worth the risk (compared to my current system).

From this thread, I was hoping to discover ways to improve my current system - disappointingly I found none.
 

Technically it's not really about the period of time to be statistically relevant--it is more about whether the number of trades is enough to be statistically relevant. For example, a system with much longer hold time and higher general exposure may only take a few trades during a particular period of time but for that same particular time period a much shorter hold time system such a swing system may generate thousands of trades which could well be a statistically relevant number. Just pointing this out as people often assume a longer test timeframe some how equals statistical significance when the focus should be on the number of trades taken. Depending on the system 12 months might be right but for other system 12 months might not provide enough trades. Pretty certain this issue was debated earlier on in this thread.
 
Trendnomics said:
From this thread, I was hoping to discover ways to improve my current system - disappointingly I found none.
Click to expand...
I never understand the motivation behind these types of posts. Scroll on by if you're disappointed or maybe make a meaningful contribution and post stuff that you think will lift the bar on this thread
 
Last edited:
"From this thread, I was hoping to discover ways to improve my current system - disappointingly I found none. "
can not be a clearer way to say:
I am vastly superior to all of you guys, what a shame, you are not worth my humble presence here and I let you go back to your kids' play
what a constructive entry! or did the (arrogant?) Frog miss anything in the translation?
 
Trendnomics said:
Still seeing all these statistically insignificant back-tests....

Remember the Hasard Cat Daily Strategy kicked similar goals....
Click to expand...

C'mon TN. If your comment related to posts by Warr87 and myself recently, Warr87 clearly stated he was sharing his actual Happy Cat equity curve over the period from Skate sharing trade signals, through to the time he recently stopped trading it. I merely showed backtest results for a similar BO strategy over the same period.

No representations were made as to statistical validity or merits of HC. For those of us trading alongside however it was a period we were both emotionally and financially invested in HC.
 
MovingAverage said:
Come on @Skate, you need to start posting again. In the absence of serious posts I've been drawn into a debate on salads with @Humid over on the Australian properties prices thread. Save me skate, I need some meaningful posts to read.
Click to expand...
I have exchanged some messages with Skate over the past week / 10 days. He is very busy with some personal matters. Please be patient for his significantly effective future posts. Yes I know his posts are like Endorphine, but please be patient.
Gunnerguy
 
Well I hope we see him posting again soon…I’m not sure my discussion with @Humid over the finer points of salads is to anyone’s benefit ?
 
Gunnerguy said:
I can highly recommend home grown Rocket, Parsley,Basil and radish. Does me well.
Gunnerguy
Click to expand...
Planted my radish a few weeks ago so I’ll be sure to let you know how I get on with them. My Parsley and Basil are going great guns so my radish better not let me down
 
Perpetual spinash is a favorite for us early retirees with on going dividend and a decent but constant return.
You guys tell me if you want me to ask Joe to rename that thread "Till it here"
 
Not surprised
 
there are two ways to protest
the first is somewhat ambivalent
the second is to speak, inspite-of

a disgruntled disquiet, an internal indifference, this is an Australian trait, not unique to Aussies, practised worldwide, pretty sure....

the difference you make when you speak so far-outweightways the difference you make when not speaking offers the idea,
that, you speaking, outweighs the need for silent protest, that you speaking, places guidance in the hands of someone's quiet
need for guidance, filling a void they cannot fill themselves, even it merely shifts their focus enough so they can have confidence to make calls

that quiet need is not unique to Aussies, however, you should feel fulfilled and satisfied, that by speaking, you alone fill that need

..and ...pretty sure, it is genuinely appreciated
 
Joules MM1 said:
a disgruntled disquiet, an internal indifference, this is an Australian trait
Click to expand...

Agree with your summation @Joules MM1

(I debated whether to post the following, as often online postings can be taken out of context. Hopefully my intentions are clear enough)


Mr. @Skate knows I have great respect for his abilities and previous ASF input on many levels. (Understatement)

However, I must confess, I am slightly bemused that you (@Skate ) have dispensed your disapproval of the "spam" content received,

To the point of no longer posting on ASF, yet,

You are still rewarding others with encouragement/ slash "likes" etc etc. (That shows generosity of course and is admirable )


Your generosity aside, I am a little confused however, in that,

I assume you still hold your normal/previous ASF account?


If that is so, are you still not receiving the aforementioned "spam" which was the catalyst for your posting abstinence?

If so, is there any real advantage in "not posting"?? (genuine question)


As I say, no judgement on my behalf regarding the above.

Rather, simply trying to see if there is a simple solution to whatever the "annoyance" was

Cheers M8.
 
This post is aimed more at the newer traders that may be on the site. If you or your systems have been struggling lately to be profitable, don't be discouraged. It takes time and experience to remain profitable in markets like the present. This is all part of the learning process.



.
 
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