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ducati916 · 2 June 2021

Skate said:
View attachment 125246

The starting date of a new strategy
"Skate's WTT Strategy" is a strategy that I haven't traded before. The crystal ball logo is to denote that I use predictive indicators as my trading edge. Today's starting date will have a big bearing on the performance outcome going forward. Those who have not traded before need to know all strategies take time to develop & need significant "luck" starting out.

Uncertainty
None of us knows what's going to happen next when trading but what I do know is that "it's vital that we follow our trading rules consistently" otherwise it can destroy the strategy's edge.

Trading at the moment is a tough gig
Posting my trading results for May 2021 demonstrated that trading has its moments (good & bad). Trading results are secondary & not the point of the exercise. The reason for posting is to demonstrate what one has to endure to be profitable over the longer term.

Doing it again
This new strategy, starting from scratch, would be another example of how a new strategy performs over the month of June 2021 with daily & weekly updates. I'm wishing (fingers crossed) that this strategy will be profitable at the end of June 2021 & anything less will be a failure. With all-new strategies, it's normal to dip into the red early as profitability comes later once positions start to build.

Skate.

Given that the market for the last month (May) has been chop and pretty frustrating, is the new strategy predicated on more chop or are you hoping for a trend to develop?

If predicting chop, then I would guess that this strategy would be some form of reversion to the mean: buy the bounce type of deal. Now a buy the bounce strategy is very ENTRY dependant.

If a trend based strategy, then we need this current chop to abate and a trend again to emerge.

I'm guessing a form of trend based strategy, knowing the low(er) value that you place on entries, although your Blue Bar strategy I note is absolutely on the money as far as entries go.

When the Fed. and Mr Powell speak about inflation, what they actually mean is ASSET price inflation, which they have in spades. Asset price deflation is a problem that they simply cannot have. They will throw DXY under the bus in the short term, hoping that its status as the #1 Reserve Currency keeps it afloat for the next few years.

Therefore, eventually, a trend will re-emerge higher in the US for stocks, which bodes well for the ASX.

jog on
duc

Skate · 2 June 2021

ducati916 said:
your Blue Bar strategy I note is absolutely on the money as far as entries go.

@ducati916 has given me a few ideas over time "when to jump on trends". It's only human to skim-read posts without understanding what has been written. Many fail to realise the effort posters take to pass on information to help others to become better traders.

"The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy"
The blue & red price bars guide when it's optimal to buy & sell. I have a simple trading method of riding trends & exiting when it deemed to be over. As traders, we buy a position in the hope that "sometime in the future" we will be able to offload the position to someone at a "higher price" than when we brought it. That's trading in a nutshell. The "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" allows me to do this. The strategy was quick to code because when you stripped trading back to the bare basics "volatility & volume" driver a trend. Once again it proves "simple" works.

Explanation
I've used @peter2 idea of colour coding the trend with "Blue Bars" so it's simple to follow along by looking at the charts. The first "blue bar" is the signal bar & we buy on the "next daily blue bar" no matter what periodicity. The first "red bar" is the signal bar & sell on the next "red bar". It's a simple strategy I have to admit.

These previous posts hold the key to profitable trading

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So here we have the systems traders v the discretionary chaps: this pretty much mirrors the ASF community atm. And we have 'insiders' buying their own stocks heavily: I monitor the various systematic based strategies here on ASF, particularly Mr Skate's thread and systems, (although there...

www.aussiestockforums.com

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So here we have the systems traders v the discretionary chaps: this pretty much mirrors the ASF community atm. And we have 'insiders' buying their own stocks heavily: I monitor the various systematic based strategies here on ASF, particularly Mr Skate's thread and systems, (although there...

www.aussiestockforums.com

Dump it Here

1st off "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" bears no resemblance to any strategy that I have previously posted & in no way mimics or uses any part of the "SuperTrend Strategy" or infact any of the ideas @peter2 has posted about. The idea has been coded from Duc's previous post. The two indicators are...

www.aussiestockforums.com

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1st off "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" bears no resemblance to any strategy that I have previously posted & in no way mimics or uses any part of the "SuperTrend Strategy" or infact any of the ideas @peter2 has posted about. The idea has been coded from Duc's previous post. The two indicators are...

www.aussiestockforums.com

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1st off "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" bears no resemblance to any strategy that I have previously posted & in no way mimics or uses any part of the "SuperTrend Strategy" or infact any of the ideas @peter2 has posted about. The idea has been coded from Duc's previous post. The two indicators are...

www.aussiestockforums.com

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Or the systems, backtested on multiple market phases does not sell buy yet, why would someone take a discretionary position then? Do not let either fear or FOMO control a systematic trading

www.aussiestockforums.com

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If trading a purely weekly system, you can have up to 5 down sessions A DD of 20/25% would still be reasonably possible even if you trigger the gtfo on that friday night And an average fall of 4 or 5 pc per session is not exactly unrealistic coming from our highs The only way to reduce the risk...

www.aussiestockforums.com

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If trading a purely weekly system, you can have up to 5 down sessions A DD of 20/25% would still be reasonably possible even if you trigger the gtfo on that friday night And an average fall of 4 or 5 pc per session is not exactly unrealistic coming from our highs The only way to reduce the risk...

www.aussiestockforums.com

Summary
No one likes to read yesterday's news (old posts) but when they hold the key to trading profitable "it's worth the effort". (IMHO) Being realistic, not many will take the time to revisit & read the hyperlinks because that would involve effort.

Skate.

Skate · 2 June 2021

Skate.

Skate · 2 June 2021

Skate.

rnr · 2 June 2021

Skate said:
@ducati916 has given me a few ideas over time "when to jump on trends". It's only human to skim-read posts without understanding what has been written. Many fail to realise the effort posters take to pass on information to help others to become better traders.

"The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy"
The blue & red price bars guide when it's optimal to buy & sell. I have a simple trading method of riding trends & exiting when it deemed to be over. As traders, we buy a position in the hope that "sometime in the future" we will be able to offload the position to someone at a "higher price" than when we brought it. That's trading in a nutshell. The "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" allows me to do this. The strategy was quick to code because when you stripped trading back to the bare basics "volatility & volume" driver a trend. Once again it proves "simple" works.

Explanation
I've used @peter2 idea of colour coding the trend with "Blue Bars" so it's simple to follow along by looking at the charts. The first "blue bar" is the signal bar & we buy on the "next daily blue bar" no matter what periodicity. The first "red bar" is the signal bar & sell on the next "red bar". It's a simple strategy I have to admit.

Skate.

Hi @Skate,

Is this statement (Blue/Bold) totally accurate?
The problem being, if it is accurate and you buy & sell at the "OPEN" as per your charts, then the code must be looking forward to determine the colour of a bar.

Cheers,
Rob

Skate · 2 June 2021

rnr said:
Hi @Skate,

Is this statement (Blue/Bold) totally accurate?
The problem being, if it is accurate and you buy & sell at the "OPEN" as per your charts, then the code must be looking forward to determine the colour of a bar.

Cheers,
Rob

Rob, let me clarify
The "Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy" is not forward-looking. The (ESPO) chart below is easy to follow that explains the strategy a little better. As it only has two different coloured bars, the first blue & red bars are the signal bars. When you get a signal, you buy in the preauction on the next bar. At this stage the colour of the bar is unknown.

1. The first "blue bar" is the signal bar & we buy at the open of the next bar.
2. The first "red bar" is the signal bar & we sell at the open of the next bar.

After the first signal bar
The next bar colour after the signal bar is not determined until the close of that bar.

Trading the colour of price bars
There is nothing simpler than trading on the colour change of a price bar.

(ESPO) - Weekly signal
At the end of trade, today (ESPO) has a buy "signal" but as this is a "weekly chart", we won't know the colour of the price bar until the end of trade Friday. If the bar is still blue it's a buy in the "preauction" Monday.

I hope this explanation adds clarity that the strategy is not forward-looking.

Skate.

Skate · 2 June 2021

Quick Update (ESPO)
The previous chart for (ESPO) was weekly & it's worthy of a daily update.

FYI
The "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" works with all periodicities.

DAILY CHART
On the daily chart (ESPO) is currently a "hold". The first red bar will be a signal bar & to be sold on the next open in the pre-auction.

Confirmation
The "Ducati Blur Bar Strategy" is not forward-looking

Skate.

rnr · 2 June 2021

Skate said:
Rob, let me clarify
The "Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy" is not forward-looking. The (ESPO) chart below is easy to follow that explains the strategy a little better. As it only has two different coloured bars, the first blue & red bars are the signal bars. When you get a signal, you buy in the preauction on the next bar. At this stage the colour of the bar is unknown.

1. The first "blue bar" is the signal bar & we buy at the open of the next bar.
2. The first "red bar" is the signal bar & we sell at the open of the next bar.

After the first signal bar
The next bar colour after the signal bar is not determined until the close of that bar.

Trading the colour of price bars
There is nothing simpler than trading on the colour change of a price bar.

(ESPO) - Weekly signal
At the end of trade, today (ESPO) has a buy "signal" but as this is a "weekly chart", we won't know the colour of the price bar until the end of trade Friday. If the bar is still blue it's a buy in the "preauction" Monday.

View attachment 125422

I hope this explanation adds clarity that the strategy is not forward-looking.

Skate.

Hi Skate,

Below is the statement that you made in your post [ref: 5422] which caused me to ask the question:-Is this statement (Blue/Bold) totally accurate?

"Explanation
I've used @peter2 idea of colour coding the trend with "Blue Bars" so it's simple to follow along by looking at the charts. The first "blue bar" is the signal bar & we buy on the "next daily blue bar" no matter what periodicity. The first "red bar" is the signal bar & sell on the next "red bar". It's a simple strategy I have to admit."

Obviously the simple answer is no, it is not accurate.

Cheers,
Rob

Cam019 · 2 June 2021

I see what you're saying Rob, but I think you're over thinking it. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I think you're asking how would the system know that the entry bar (bar after signal) is going to be blue before the days trading finishes.

I'm assuming the answer is, Skate wouldn't know and ultimately it is irrelevant because we won't know if the bar is red or blue until the close of that particular trading day. I think the entry is still valid regardless of what colour the 'entry' bar ends up being.

Skate · 2 June 2021

rnr said:
Hi Skate,

Below is the statement that you made in your post [ref: 5422] which caused me to ask the question:-Is this statement (Blue/Bold) totally accurate?

"Explanation
I've used @peter2 idea of colour coding the trend with "Blue Bars" so it's simple to follow along by looking at the charts. The first "blue bar" is the signal bar & we buy on the "next daily blue bar" no matter what periodicity. The first "red bar" is the signal bar & sell on the next "red bar". It's a simple strategy I have to admit."

Obviously the simple answer is no, it is not accurate.

Cheers,
Rob

Hi Rob

Rephrased
The first "blue bar" is the signal bar & we buy on the "next bar". The first "red bar" is the signal bar & sell on the next "bar".

The corrections
The bolding is the correction that clarifies my explanation of how the strategy works.

Skate.

Skate · 2 June 2021

Cam019 said:
I'm assuming the answer is, Skate wouldn't know and ultimately it is irrelevant because we won't know if the bar is red or blue until the close of that particular trading day. I think the entry is an entry regardless of what colour the bar ends up being.

@Cam019, you are absolutely correct. The strategy buys the next bar after the signal bar & the colour of the next bar is unknown at this stage.

This is important
When the position is taken the next bar colour is unknown BUT the colour of that entry bar dictates whether to hold or sell.

Skate.

Skate · 2 June 2021

rnr said:
Obviously the simple answer is no, it is not accurate.

Rob, I concede the wording could be misinterpreted & misleading. I trust @Cam019 explanation overcomes the issue you have. I accept the initial description I used could have been better worded.

Skate.

Skate · 3 June 2021

aus_trader said:
problem is finding stocks that have some substance

@aus_trader has pointed out that his trading results (which are impressive by the way) rely on finding a stock that has substance. The method in finding that substance differs greatly between the two of us. Systemic traders don't have to rely on skill but tend to rely on indicators.

Indicators are clues, signs or piece of information that indicates something
Reading an indicator can be somewhat complicated because of the many pieces of information that it provides. In the context of technical analysis, an indicator is a mathematical calculation based on a security's price & volume. The result is used to predict future prices. Predictive indicators provide a guide when it's optimal to buy & sell.

Skate.

Skate · 3 June 2021

Filters & parameters
In contrast, the concept around filters adds complexity to coding a strategy. The filters & parameters of the code are a constant struggle as it becomes a trade-off. Pushing for higher returns increases the risk & drawdowns. Also, the exit strategy adds further complexities. Using appropriate combinations of stops helps find the "sweet spot" to exit.

Stops
The placement of effective extra stops can make the difference between a quick, relatively painless loss or something more excruciating. Typically, most strategies gauge momentum & volatility in "certain ways" using indicators. Trend traders have their favourites to get the job done. Finding them & making them work together is a challenge but well worth the exercise.

Skate.

Skate · 3 June 2021

Traders live on hope
Develop a system that you know works, that you’ll follow under any circumstances & you'll never need hope again. Indicators are a small & often inconsequential component of a complete trading strategy. The ‘performance’ of any indicator will ultimately depend upon the markets that you apply it to & more importantly the risk management & exit strategy of the final model.

In trading, your goal is to be consistent
So, the more consistent you "do what you do", the more consistent your results will be. Concentrate on the execution of your strategy & not on the money-making side of the equation as one follows the other. Every trading system has certain performance aspects to it. These aspects have a direct impact on its profitability & most of all predictability.

Awareness
Tracking the performance of your trading system is absolutely essential to truly maximise your profits. It's also handy to visualise if your trading is on track & within a range of the backtesting results. Awareness gives you the knowledge that can help you get to the next level in your trading education.

Skate.

aus_trader · 3 June 2021

Skate said:
@aus_trader has pointed out that his trading results (which are impressive by the way) rely on finding a stock that has substance. The method in finding that substance differs greatly between the two of us. Systemic traders don't have to rely on skill but tend to rely on indicators.

Indicators are clues, signs or piece of information that indicates something
Reading an indicator can be somewhat complicated because of the many pieces of information that it provides. In the context of technical analysis, an indicator is a mathematical calculation based on a security's price & volume. The result is used to predict future prices. Predictive indicators provide a guide when it's optimal to buy & sell.

Skate.

Thanks Skate, I am also impressed by your trading methods some of which I've traded alongside you.

In my spec portfolio I just try to find stocks that has some differentiation from it's peers. So in the Gold stock example, there's that many Gold stocks heading higher swept up by the rise in Gold price, so which one do I pick.

So digging a bit deeper into some of the popular Gold stocks, I found that ALK has a very good Gold operation at Tomingley with nearly a decade of production left (see today's announcement by the company), which could further be extended with the discovery of 'Boda' deposit which is still being defined.

Skate · 3 June 2021

Off-Topic
Well, you live & learn.

How do you pronounce Dogecoin?
The cryptocurrency’s co-founder Mr Markus says the correct pronunciation is “dohj coin”, despite its logo including a dog. Dogecoin is a cryptocurrency that was created as a "joke" also made out of "fairy dust" that is now worth billions.

I've been pronouncing it Dog-eCoin.
Dog - E - Coin or saying it quickly "doggie coin" or "Doggy Coin". The dog meme simply confused the heck out of me, thus the incorrect pronunciation.

“Dohj coin”
Pronounced phonetically is "DougeCoin" as the founder suggests if you are in any doubt.

Skate.

Skate · 3 June 2021

aus_trader said:
I've taken a position in a familiar stock to this portfolio, Alkane Resources Limited (ALK).

When others post
It's exciting to experience how other traders make their stock selection & the methodology that decides when a position is to be entered. Admittedly I don't have the time or unique skills-set to evaluate positions in this manner. My go-to is either the weekly or daily "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" to understand the reasoning a little better.

Unless it's in my scans it's never considered
@aus_trader has recently taken a position in (ALK) & by all accounts, I have to agree (ALK) has potential. Viewing the "Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy" or the "Ducati Weekly Blue Bar Strategy" they are both in agreement.

ducati916 said:
your Blue Bar strategy I note is absolutely on the money as far as entries go.

The entry is important
I should also point out @ducati916 adds more importance to the entry. @aus_trader timing may be slightly lagging on Duc's methodology but in @aus_trader defence, delaying the entry (timing) can increase the accuracy when it comes to winning percentages.

"Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy"
Entry & exit signals

"Ducati Weekly Blue Bar Strategy"
Entry & exit signals.

Summary
You don't require chart reading skills looking at either chart. Buy blue bars & sell the red ones. (Easy peezy)

Skate.

aus_trader · 3 June 2021

Skate said:
When others post
It's exciting to experience how other traders make their stock selection & the methodology that decides when a position is to be entered. Admittedly I don't have the time or unique skills-set to evaluate positions in this manner. My go-to is either the weekly or daily "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" to understand the reasoning a little better.

Unless it's in my scans it's never considered
@aus_trader has recently taken a position in (ALK) & by all accounts, I have to agree (ALK) has potential. Viewing the "Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy" or the "Ducati Weekly Blue Bar Strategy" they are both in agreement.

The entry is important
I should also point out @ducati916 adds more importance to the entry. @aus_trader timing may be slightly lagging on Duc's methodology but in @aus_trader defence, delaying the entry (timing) can increase the accuracy when it comes to winning percentages.

"Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy"
Entry & exit signals

View attachment 125473

"Ducati Weekly Blue Bar Strategy"
Entry & exit signals.

View attachment 125476

Summary
You don't require chart reading skills looking at either chart. Buy blue bars & sell the red ones. (Easy peezy)

Skate.

Agree, I would have liked to have the entry slightly earlier, but as your Ducati blue bar suggests, I am buying into the right side of the trend or into strength, so that's comforting to know. Cheers for embedding the Ducati Blue Bar strategy over the bar chart Skate.

Skate · 3 June 2021

Removal of my last post
I requested the removal of SPAM posted in this thread & in another which resulted in "my last post" being removed as well. I reiterated in a message to @Joe Blow that SPAM is one of my pet hates.

Without agreeing to the forum's terms & conditions my account will be disabled
This means if I don't keep accepting email SPAM from this forum my account will be disabled. As there is no unsubscribe feature from advertising material (SPAM) that allows you to keep access to the forum - I'll be quiet.

Terms
You agree to maintain a valid and functioning contact email address at all times and to make that email address available for Aussie Stock Forums to send you occasional email communications, some of which may be advertising. If you do not maintain a valid and functioning email address or refuse to accept email communications from Aussie Stock Forums your account will be disabled.

Skate.

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