Duc's Paper Trades

[ducati916]

So the idea is to track 2 possible sources of trades going forwards.

1. Is a 'short interest' play (AIRS); and
2 A public scan (BG).


So AIRS the following day:




If I were trading this I would have $9 as the target to exit at least 50% of the position.


On BG




I like the fact that it has pulled back to a volume support point.


On AIRS



That it has cleared the volume resistance point. Which means that it could ramp up quickly as Hedge Funds that are short the stock buy back to cover.


And a bear scan:





Watching.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. This is a classic leadership scan. We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. This week’s standout is Industrials, climbing to the number two spot in our sector rankings.

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Technology keeps leading, but other areas are starting to catch up. The industrial sector is one of the best gauges of overall market health. It’s the most diversified group and has the highest correlation to the major averages. I like to call Industrials the “generals” of the market. When they march higher, it means things are good for risk assets more broadly. On the other hand, Materials also jumped three spots this week, showing renewed strength from the cyclical corners of the market. There’s real opportunity here—and staying open to rotation into these groups just makes sense. With risk-off sectors stuck at the bottom of our rankings, it’s clear investors aren’t playing defense. Here is a look at our overall industry rankings, which shows Building Productsjumping into the top 20.

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These are some of the most economically sensitive stocks out there—a real barometer for both the economy and the market. And evidence suggests they are ready to play catch-up. A lot of building products components fall into the housing theme, which we like a lot right now. We just released a deep-dive with everything you need to know, including our favorite trades. Click here to check it out. These are the Top 10 building products names, sorted by relative strength.

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My favorite setup from the list is a $62B heavyweight in HVAC, refrigeration, and fire safety. Here’s Carrier Global Corp $CARR:

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The stock is tightening up just below key resistance at the 161.8% extension. This follows a clean breakout from a three-year base and a successful retest of former highs. It’s been a healthy consolidation, and I think CARR is ready to resume its uptrend. We want to own CARR on strength above 75 with a target of 101.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So testing a new swing trade, overnight system with 1DTE Options.

The idea is that you place the trade at or just before the close and they expire tomorrow. Which means that you have to be able to, in some form, close out the position.

Just watching SPY starting to look as if a short term top is in place



I am leaning towards a short currently. However, it is the close that will be important.

I'll update at market close.

jog on
duc

 

[StockyGuy]

So testing a new swing trade, overnight system with 1DTE Options.

The idea is that you place the trade at or just before the close and they expire tomorrow. Which means that you have to be able to, in some form, close out the position.

Just watching SPY starting to look as if a short term top is in place

View attachment 205850

I am leaning towards a short currently. However, it is the close that will be important.

I'll update at market close.

jog on
duc

Could be nerve wracking seeing what it (SPY)'s doing post market and pre market yet not being able to touch the option till regular market hours.

 

[ducati916]

Could be nerve wracking seeing what it (SPY)'s doing post market and pre market yet not being able to touch the option till regular market hours.

So this is how it ended:




The last 15mins is pretty wild.

My paper trade from last Friday was a loser. So obviously still some work to do.

Learned some lessons today that will be useful going forward.

Now obviously I can only trade when I am available the next day to close out the trade. This week that will only be Friday (US time). I'll update this thread all week with paper trades.

jog on
duc

 

[StockyGuy]

My paper trade from last Friday was a loser. So obviously still some work to do.

Though a losing trade doesn't NECESSARILY mean the strategy itself is off. Lots of good systems and techniques lose the majority of trades.

 

[ducati916]

As of writing post.

I am expecting price to fall back to $640.77 +/-. Which is R2. It's just starting to now. That 'should' as as support.

If it does not fall back, next target will be $645.12

Which is where it gets tricky towards the close, ie. where does the volume push the close?

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So buy volume came in at the close.

I will expect higher tomorrow.

So as a paper trade

Buy close at $642.69

Target price: $644.76 is the conservative price target. A more aggressive would be: $648.84

Now for automating the trade:




So it will be a conditional order.

The stop loss = 100% of Option price. So stop by position size. The reason being that the volatility at the open could easily stop you out of an eventually winning trade.

So sell to exit at $$644.50 (nice round number).

So a very simple overnight system using the volume for short term direction.


jog on
duc

 

[Captain_Chaza]

I Can't See it Working because you are assuming all Ships / Sails act the Same in All Waters
Some are better suited to a 10% SL
Some are better suited to a 7%
Some are better suited to a 5%
ETC ETC ETC
IMHO It all depends on how they Perform in the Water with maybe the EXCEPTION of Identical TWINS

In Summary
What all Back-testers are trying to do is Put a SQUARE peg into a ROUND hole

 

[ducati916]

I Can't See it Working because you are assuming all Ships / Sails act the Same in All Waters
Some are better suited to a 10% SL
Some are better suited to a 7%
Some are better suited to a 5%
ETC ETC ETC
IMHO It all depends on how they Perform in the Water with maybe the EXCEPTION of Identical TWINS

In Summary
What all Back-testers are trying to do is Put a SQUARE peg into a ROUND hole
View attachment 205977

Morning Cap'n.

Will it work all of the time? Of course not. We'd all be billionaires.

If it can work 50% of the time, then with management it should be profitable.

Anyway, today it worked.




I will assume that the paper conditional order triggered at $644.50 or better and the trade was exited.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Buy at $644

Sell at $646.82


jog on
duc

 

[Captain_Chaza]

FWIW: I am a little concerned for you about the last Candlestick on the Daily

Salute and Bon Voyage

 

[ducati916]

So this is a loss.

Exit for a loss of $0.86


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

FWIW: I am a little concerned for you about the last Candlestick on the Daily
View attachment 206063
Salute and Bon Voyage
View attachment 206064

Morning Cap'n...

Good call.

Something I will pay attention to going forward.


So an hour or so later, we are here:




Now I have a live order in the market to buy at $644.07

I have to leave for work shortly so not sure whether I'll get executed. Target is the same price as yesterday.


jog on
duc