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Bitcoin v Gold XBT : XAU

Garpal Gumnut

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Bitcoin is still elevated but is running out of puff.

The Intelligence Committee at the hotel is investigating whether Osint, Bellingcat and Anonymous are planning an attack on Bitcoin to assist Ukraine. I overheard "double edged sword, Tesla, Elon is on Signal " as I brought the pies back from the bakery. They are quite on the spectrum that committee.

Meanwhile back at the chart there has been a slight improvement in Gold v Bitcoin.

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gg
 

Garpal Gumnut

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Just a quick update on BTC/Gold.

Gold will be static over the weekend until trade on Monday.

BTC has slipped to low $38900's last time I looked.

It looks promising for Gold although the cousins in Frankfurt tell me Grozny kerosene may be paid in Bitcoin. Good luck with that. Give me a log fire any day.

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gg
 

Garpal Gumnut

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There is now an increasing correlation between BTC and the POG.

In the 31minutes since Gold opened in Sydney after the weekend the flight from BTC has become marked and shadows the XAU extremely closely.

I would hope there would be a further flight from BTC tonight when the cousins in New York wake up to trade.

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gg
 

Garpal Gumnut

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Just an update on BTC XAU.

Gold fell today as we head in to the London session.

BTC soraed overnight but is falling back again.

What a kerfuffle

Not the time to be rash about anything although I've taken some profits on my Gold Bar.


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gg
 

Garpal Gumnut

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Just an update on BTC v Gold in these volatile times.

Crypto would appear to be rising against the yellow metal this latter half of March.



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gg
 

Dona Ferentes

A little bit OC⚡DC
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Just an update on BTC v Gold in these volatile times.
Crypto would appear to be rising against the yellow metal this latter half of March.
One for you, gg. In my inbox yesterday, the usual 'get what you pay for' discourse. Lots of graphs, lots of "I told you so's"

But an interesting posit, as follows

"At the end of last year total central bank foreign currency reserves amounted to nearly $13 trillion.

Approximately 60% of which is in U.S dollars and 20% is in euros, the majority of which is invested in U.S and European government securities.

If you were responsible for the foreign exchange reserves of a central bank and given what has just happened to Russia, would you not be thinking about your exposure to U.S dollars, or euros?

If you were in Japan, South Korea, Australia, the U.K, France, Canada, or any other member of the western alliance, you wouldn’t be.

What, however, if you were in China, or even Saudi Arabia?

Surely you would think twice about where you invested? ....

In 2010 Russia had $176 billion invested in U.S Treasury securities and today it is $4.5 billion....

What about China?

The latest data shows that China has a bit over $1 trillion invested in U.S securities.

Remember China has total foreign exchange reserves of $3.22 trillion, which is the largest in the world.

What about Saudi Arabia?

Saudi has $119 billion in U.S Treasuries.

Pause for a moment, before you dismiss what I am about to say.

Remember that on 23 February 2022, the day before the invasion of Ukraine, no one thought that America and its European allies would sanction the Russian central bank.

The world has changed.

America has weaponized the dollar and Biden may not put NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine but he will use every tool at his disposal in the war between democracy and autocracy.

If you were sitting in Beijing with responsibility for a $1 trillion investment in U.S government debt would you be confident and comfortable?


Would you look to increase or decrease your exposure?

You know the answer.

And, an even better question is what do they invest in?

There is only one true global store of value that has stood the test of ancient and modern history…5,000 years of turbulence, revolution, hyperinflation, world wars and changing currency regimes.

And it’s not bitcoin or any of the other 12,000, and counting, cryptocurrencies.

My bet is that some of America’s autocratic creditors will head for the exit in the years ahead.

Between you and me, it will not be years.



Yes, and they will follow Putin’s lead and sell U.S Treasury securities and buy gold. .... "

Jonathan Pain.
 

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
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One for you, gg. In my inbox yesterday, the usual 'get what you pay for' discourse. Lots of graphs, lots of "I told you so's"

But an interesting posit, as follows

"At the end of last year total central bank foreign currency reserves amounted to nearly $13 trillion.

Approximately 60% of which is in U.S dollars and 20% is in euros, the majority of which is invested in U.S and European government securities.

If you were responsible for the foreign exchange reserves of a central bank and given what has just happened to Russia, would you not be thinking about your exposure to U.S dollars, or euros?

If you were in Japan, South Korea, Australia, the U.K, France, Canada, or any other member of the western alliance, you wouldn’t be.

What, however, if you were in China, or even Saudi Arabia?

Surely you would think twice about where you invested? ....

In 2010 Russia had $176 billion invested in U.S Treasury securities and today it is $4.5 billion....

What about China?

The latest data shows that China has a bit over $1 trillion invested in U.S securities.

Remember China has total foreign exchange reserves of $3.22 trillion, which is the largest in the world.

What about Saudi Arabia?

Saudi has $119 billion in U.S Treasuries.

Pause for a moment, before you dismiss what I am about to say.

Remember that on 23 February 2022, the day before the invasion of Ukraine, no one thought that America and its European allies would sanction the Russian central bank.

The world has changed.

America has weaponized the dollar and Biden may not put NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine but he will use every tool at his disposal in the war between democracy and autocracy.

If you were sitting in Beijing with responsibility for a $1 trillion investment in U.S government debt would you be confident and comfortable?


Would you look to increase or decrease your exposure?

You know the answer.


And, an even better question is what do they invest in?

There is only one true global store of value that has stood the test of ancient and modern history…5,000 years of turbulence, revolution, hyperinflation, world wars and changing currency regimes.

And it’s not bitcoin or any of the other 12,000, and counting, cryptocurrencies.

My bet is that some of America’s autocratic creditors will head for the exit in the years ahead.

Between you and me, it will not be years.



Yes, and they will follow Putin’s lead and sell U.S Treasury securities and buy gold. .... "

Jonathan Pain.
Thanks @Dona Ferentes .

I believe it may have been you or one of the regular posters who said on one of the threads at the start of Putin's war with Ukraine that all financial markets would be affected by volatility and wide, wide swings.

That has certainly been the case with POI, POG, Stocks, BTC and Forex.

I am usually a trend follower buying on breakouts but have changed tactics for the duration of the War to watching the waxing and waining of price.

I'm cashed up, so am happy to buy more Gold at the appropriate time.

As well as a store of value it has with recent price action become a short term tradable entity.

Having said that I'd prefer peace.

If someone gave me BTC tomorrow, I would instantly convert it to cash. It is a Toolip.

gg
 

Garpal Gumnut

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Just an update from a very interesting article on BTC vs Gold at kitco.com.


The summary is :

Gold is just under flat at the moment but Bitcoin is currently running -59% down on the year. There are some correlations in the way the two assets move but when the going gets tough Bitcoin's losses are very volatile. As a store of value and safe haven, there is no question at the moment gold is the clear winner. If you are looking for the high beta play then Bitcoin could be your answer but for stability, there is no contest.

gg
 

Garpal Gumnut

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Bitcoin continues to underperform Gold.

There is some correlation between BTC and Gold so from this and other charts I'm revising my price of BTC and Gold this year.

BTC per Coin : $USD 5000
Gold per oz. : $USD 2500

So if BTC survives, and that is a big if, 1 BTC will buy 2 oz Gold.

If BTC goes Tulip Up, 1 BTC will be worthless and Gold will be probably be $3500 per oz..

I may buy more Gold if the $USD weakens and our Aussie strengthens


.

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gg
 
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Not a fan of any of the cryptos and wouldn't put my hard earned anywhere in touch with any of them. Gold a proven stayer over the centuries, I guess that is why so many want to dig the stuff up
 
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Not fully on topic but the timing of posting is interesting in relation to today's move on the crypto ETF
CRYP.

I don't see a reason for it except
pre-emptive contrarian sort of stuff...
Not a huge amount of money flow but interesting none the less.

Screenshot_20230105-215635.png
 

Garpal Gumnut

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A snippet from an AFR article today on Central Banks, Inflation and Assets.

Watch bitcoin vs gold​

One other asset class that ripped up the rule book since the GFC is also worth watching.

Cryptocurrency bitcoin is now a risk bellwether and proxy measure of eroding public trust in the ultra-loose monetary policies central banks reversed in 2022. By contrast, physical gold ignored the economic textbooks over the pandemic and failed to rise as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical volatility, or falling interest rates.

Perhaps if bitcoin outperforms gold in 2023 it will be obvious that trust in central banks and sound money still has a long way to be restored.

But if gold beats bitcoin, the logical inference is that central banks have hammered home some new rules of investing.

gg
 
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I suppose as long as one has understandings of it, the mood swings of Bitcoins and its mates, then all is well.
For me never, ever, has a brown snake attached to it.
Far too dangerous.
 
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