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Australian Federal Election - 2019

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IFocus said:
Giving people money then taking it off them is a sort election winner?

I am not convinced Australia can effort any tax cuts at the present time unless you accept its all going on the credit card
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I think the thing is, the RBA says the economy needs people to start spending, the basic wage has been raised.
The only other way is either pay rises, which cost business and jobs, or tax cuts.
So in a way the economy is between a rock and a hard place, infrastructure spending doesn't get out into the economy straight away, the tax cuts do.
I think Labor will do self inflicted damage by not just waving them through, being pedantic about tax cuts in five years, just makes them appear to be looking for a way to stop the tax cuts being passed on.
 
Agree on all points SP

Ironically the Coalition tax cuts are a politic decision rather than economic based they were about countering Labors election tax cuts.

Still don't think its great for debt.

Edit how was my spelling in that post :oops:
 
I think there should be far more nuance in the way the tax cuts are costed. The media constantly quotes the full cost of the tax cuts as an outright dollar number, and ignoring any economic benefits, which is very wrong.

For one, much of the cuts are simply addressing bracket creep. Secondly, much of the cost of the cuts will be re-couped by Government. Put more money in an individual's pocket, they have more to spend, higher disposable income, increased business confidence, and that money will be subject to other taxes.

If it ends up being too costly, the Government can do what it always does, leave bracket creep unaddressed for another 10 years, and keep taking in a sh!tload of immigrants to increase the base of taxpayers.

Setting aside all the above, I like the tax policy and the concept that the majority of Australian shouldn't give more than 30% of their wages to the Government.

If you are truly a high income earner, you will still pay a high Marginal Tax Rate for earnings over $200k, which I think is important to note. These changes are still 5 years off, there will be a lot more individuals earning over $200k in 5 years and beyond, than there are today.
 
Junior said:
I think there should be far more nuance in the way the tax cuts are costed. The media constantly quotes the full cost of the tax cuts as an outright dollar number, and ignoring any economic benefits, which is very wrong.

For one, much of the cuts are simply addressing bracket creep. Secondly, much of the cost of the cuts will be re-coupled by Government. Put more money in an individual's pocket, they have more to spend, higher disposable income, increased business confidence, and that money will be subject to other taxes.

If it ends up being too costly, the Government can do what it always does, leave bracket creep unaddressed for another 10 years, and keep taking in a sh!tload of immigrants to increase the base of taxpayers.

Setting aside all the above, I like the tax policy and the concept that the majority of Australian shouldn't give more than 30% of the wages to the Government.

If you are truly a high income earner, you will still pay a high Marginal Tax Rate for earnings over $200k, which I think is important to note. These changes are still 5 years off, there will be a lot more individuals earning over $200k in 5 years and beyond, than there are today.
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Well put junior, the other thing is Labor acknowledge the economy is failing, but say we can't afford the high level tax cuts.
Where in reality, the low level tax cuts will not really stimulate the economy, as most will be used to pay down debt, the only ones who will spend are those that can afford to.
So as you say, the more people spend, the more tax the Government get, more money goes into circulation and the struggling retail sector in theory should pick up.
Labor are really pulling the trigger, before the gun has left the holster, so to speak.
If the tax cuts turn to manure, the Government wears the fall out, if Labor don't pass the tax cuts they get blamed for the economy falling into recession. It is really a no win situation that labor is pushing, Albo needs to get control, of the loony left.
 
@sptrawler It will always be the sitting Govt that gets blamed for the recession / downturn.

We've had a hostile senate for 13 years and during the GFC it was apparently all Labor's fault for the increased unemployment at the time when in reality they couldn't stop it. History will repeat itself for this Govt.

Curiously, the chosen poison panacea was cash handouts (Rudd) versus tax cuts (Turnbull)

We got the cash handouts, no recession, large debt. Highly debatable result...

Now the alternative on the table: tax cuts and budget surpluses. Another debatable result :)

It will pass the senate eventually with or without Labors' blessing.
 
Spent the entire campaign whining about Labor and losing losing your franking credits?
Win the election and whine about Labor?
Sound familiar gang?
Tax cuts aren’t going to fix this mess and I think interest rates are kept low to stop a massive default not stimulating the economy
 
I agree with what you say, but ATM the responses by Labor are front and centre in the peoples mind, and the policy handling of Albo will stay in people's minds.
Only my opinion and as you say, the cuts will get through, but a fumbling opposition at this time, is doing itself no favour's.
The difference this time opposed to last time, there is no Chinese mega boom going on.
 
Junior said:
I think there should be far more nuance in the way the tax cuts are costed. The media constantly quotes the full cost of the tax cuts as an outright dollar number, and ignoring any economic benefits, which is very wrong.

For one, much of the cuts are simply addressing bracket creep. Secondly, much of the cost of the cuts will be re-couped by Government. Put more money in an individual's pocket, they have more to spend, higher disposable income, increased business confidence, and that money will be subject to other taxes.

If it ends up being too costly, the Government can do what it always does, leave bracket creep unaddressed for another 10 years, and keep taking in a sh!tload of immigrants to increase the base of taxpayers.

Setting aside all the above, I like the tax policy and the concept that the majority of Australian shouldn't give more than 30% of their wages to the Government.

If you are truly a high income earner, you will still pay a high Marginal Tax Rate for earnings over $200k, which I think is important to note. These changes are still 5 years off, there will be a lot more individuals earning over $200k in 5 years and beyond, than there are today.
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I know it’s from the lefties Skynews but
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...und-to-give-most-to-workers-who-need-it-least
 
The thing with this lot of tax cuts is they are political not economic and by that they are not part of an over all tax reform agenda just a dogs breakfast.

I understand the bracket creep issue but the other side is revenue that hasn't been addressed by the Coalition other than ridiculous forecasts of 3% plus growth well beyond what the states are forecasting.

The tax cuts are not really addressing the stimulus of the economy in full or at 100% efficiency as the majority of the money is going to higher end of earners.

The lower end will spend pretty much in full into the economy higher end not so much.

The US Trump business tax cuts were used in share buy backs pretty much missing the economy on the ground meanwhile the CEO's are creaming it punters not so much.
 
I consider that the RBA is still living in the past and have done a very poor job of managing our economy over the past 5 years or so.

Firstly, they should have required all investment properties to have at least 10% unencumbered deposit, this would have slowed the bubbles in Sydney and Melbourne and calmed the negative gearing mania that existed for a while.

Secondly, since there has been no major wars for 70 years people with a job have had the chance to accumulate assets. BB's are now living off those assets or living off the return on those assets.

When interest rates are lowered two things happen, people living on interest from assets reduce their spending accordingly and people paying off loans use the reduced payments to get ahead on their repayments.

The world is a very different place now and the RBA has not worked out that lowering interest rates has a very different effect in todays world.

Do they really think that an interest rate of 1% rather than 2% is going to make any difference to a company considering expansion, get real !! But it does make a difference to those living on their savings.

I find rather annoying when people with Uni degrees are stuck in the era of their graduation, they seem to think that what was right 30 years could not possibly ever change.

If we look at Japan we can see that low interest rates are a simplistic approach to a complicated problem, so here in Oz when that does not work then the RBA is stumped.
 
macca said:
I consider that the RBA is still living in the past and have done a very poor job of managing our economy over the past 5 years or so.
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The problems have been brewing for years now and have been discussed on this forum many times.

High housing costs combined with low wages growth mean that as each week passes, we have more first home buyers locked into a "cash poor" situation which won't resolve itself easily given the low wages growth.

High utility costs are a drag on the entire economy since practically every business and individual has at least some use of electricity, gas or other utilities.

Structural change in the economy has seen many medium to high wage jobs replaced by lower wage jobs. Those who were in the middle economically in industries such as manufacturing are now increasingly at the bottom in low value service industries, many of which not only pay low hourly rates but don't even offer full time hours with any certainty.

In the medium concern consumers have run up huge debt levels on average, having reached a point that is unlikely to go much further and which may well reverse as consumers become worried about the future.

Put all that together and it's not surprising to see new car sales and pretty much all retail struggling with various media reports suggesting that restaurants and similar things are now joining that trend. Consumers either don't have the money to spend on non-essentials or, if they do have it, they're worried that they might not have it for much longer and so a cash hoarding mentality and paying down debt is the natural response.

All that's missing so far as recessions go is for one or more some seriously big companies to go bust and lay off a huge number of staff and for unemployment to spike.:2twocents
 
The RBA doesn't really have a lot in its arsenal, other than interest rates. The major issue is IMO, reducing interest rates is meant to cause a corresponding fall in the value of the currency, the problem is every Country is doing it so that negates that outcome.
So it is going to be up to the Government to stimulate the economy, one way or another.
 
sptrawler said:
The RBA doesn't really have a lot in its arsenal, other than interest rates. The major issue is IMO, reducing interest rates is meant to cause a corresponding fall in the value of the currency, the problem is every Country is doing it so that negates that outcome.
So it is going to be up to the Government to stimulate the economy, one way or another.
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Well they haven't got very many bullets in the chamber there either.

The mining boom has run it's course, real estate is screwed for quite some time, the rampant immigration card has already been played. And I don't think there's very much in the kitty for massive infrastructure spend. No business in its right mind would set up any industry here

I really think the can has been kicked along the road about as far as it can be kicked....
 
Smurf1976 said:
This man was a state premier not federal but he seems to be pretty much the very definition of arrogance:

https://www.news.com.au/national/ns...s/news-story/b9f053eb0bd99e20412a2b628133bb87

Arrogant crap like that is what Labor needs to rid itself of or in this case well and truly distance itself from. I can't be any blunter really. :mad:
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Get over the fact that you can't buy a place to raise your kids because some foreign chap has bought and old place, torn it down , built a 6 bedroom mansion which one son or daughter lives in so they can go to school and when they have finished they rent it out to another son or daughter of a foreign family ?

It's a scandal , but is the current Federal government doing anything about it ?

Would be interesting to know.
 
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