Australian Employment Stats

[mullokintyre]

The OZ economy seems hotter than the experts predicted.
The best part is that the majority of the positions created were Full time rather part time, reversing recent trends.





Effectively puts paid to any chance of a rate cut on Cup day.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

In a sign that will somewhat please the RBA board, the growth in Oz employment is slowing to a crawl.
A good part of the trend is the continuing increases in full time employment compared to part time.
The bad part is that 75% of all the jobs created are in government aligned industries.

 

[mullokintyre]

Todays release by the ABS on employment stats is a mixed bag.
Depending on whether you look at trend terms or seasonally adjusted, one gets a different picture.
Given the variance from month to month, I guess it makes sense to look at the trend terms, especially as we have no idea what black boxes they use to smooth things out with their seasonally adjusted data.
Given RBA govenor's previously expressed worry about the strong employment data putting pressure on inflation, one might make a case for suggesting that like the US fed, she nay have caved in a tad early.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

Todays release by the ABS on employment stats is a mixed bag.
Depending on whether you look at trend terms or seasonally adjusted, one gets a different picture.
Given the variance from month to month, I guess it makes sense to look at the trend terms, especially as we have no idea what black boxes they use to smooth things out with their seasonally adjusted data.
Given RBA govenor's previously expressed worry about the strong employment data putting pressure on inflation, one might make a case for suggesting that like the US fed, she nay have caved in a tad early.
Mick
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The RBA Governors two mandates are based on controlling inflation and full employment.
So would be happy with the falling inflation while retaining "full" employment.

Economic theory suggests that the rate of inflation rises as unemployment rates fall.
But there seems to be a disconnect with this theory known as the Philips curve. in the 1970s high unemployment didn't stop high inflation.
And now, low inflation and full employment didn't lead to rising prices. Now we have higher inflation that is falling satisfactorily despite little difference in employment. not just in Australia but many places overseas.

Employees have less power to demand wage rises so the high level of employment in many countries around the world has not stopped inflation falling.
I am sure Michelle Bullock is aware of this. There is a danger is if there is a shortage of workers - but so called near full employment is what we supposedly have now, not a general shortage of workers. There is 6% under-employment which is pretty large.

 

[mullokintyre]

Enployment stats from ABS out.
Once again, ya have to look deep to find whats going on.
Headline Unemployment steady at 4.1%.
However, if you look at the actual data versus season it is up one side down the other.
However, if you look at the yearly change, both of the data sets show an increase in unemployed people over the year.


The big one is despite the large increase in poulation, mostly via immigration, is that the particpation rate has turned over.
We really need anoher two months of data to see if this a blip or a new trend.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Yesterday the ABS released Monthly Earnings data.
Every state has had a slowdown in wages increases, with both Victoria and Queensland seeing the lowest growth, and unlike other states, is below both the previous years growth.
WA still booming ahead, though NT is doing a pretty good job with wage increases.


Mining still dominates the wage increases, and given the collapse of so many constructions co;s it is no surprise to see the players in that industry going backwards.


Mick

 

[Knobby22]

Yesterday the ABS released Monthly Earnings data.
Every state has had a slowdown in wages increases, with both Victoria and Queensland seeing the lowest growth, and unlike other states, is below both the previous years growth.
WA still booming ahead, though NT is doing a pretty good job with wage increases.

View attachment 199931
Mining still dominates the wage increases, and given the collapse of so many constructions co;s it is no surprise to see the players in that industry going backwards.

View attachment 199932
Mick

Very interesting.

I can also say from conversations that there are a lot of layoffs among Engineers in the construction design sectors.
This is usually a harbinger of doom, I mean a leading indicator

 

[divs4ever]

Very interesting.

I can also say from conversations that there are a lot of layoffs among Engineers in the construction design sectors.
This is usually a harbinger of doom, I mean a leading indicator

civil construction , or in the mining sector ( or both ) ?

the mining sector is to be expected , in a rational world civil construction would soak up some of those engineers ( and maybe manufacturing would help a little )

 

[Knobby22]

civil construction , or in the mining sector ( or both ) ?

the mining sector is to be expected , in a rational world civil construction would soak up some of those engineers ( and maybe manufacturing would help a little )

General construction.

 

[divs4ever]

General construction. Not much mining in Melbourne.

still a little ( mining/energy ) left outside Melbourne , but i guess the combo of Dan and Albo is fairly toxic to real production ( of anything tangible )

oh well back to growing grapes and MJ for Victorians then

 

[mullokintyre]

ABS data out again.
A loss of 2,000 jobs in May reinforces the gradual slowdown mantra.
participation rate fell marginally, but hours worked increased marginally.


The ABS provided a seasonally adjusted data point for full time versus part time which seemed a great outcome.

The raw data was even better, though not sure about the accuracy given the wide disparity.


It makes me scratch my head as to which of these figures is more usefull.


Overall, probably a positive for those hoping for another rate cut in July.
Mick

 

[Bellcose]

It makes me scratch my head as to which of these figures is more usefull.

Confusing isn't it? While it may sound strange, labour force data isn't for the likes of you or me. It's supposed to be a tool for industry and employers on the availability of the workforce. Of course, media make a song and dance about it without actually explaining why the data is collected.

 

[mullokintyre]

Confusing isn't it? While it may sound strange, labour force data isn't for the likes of you or me. It's supposed to be a tool for industry and employers on the availability of the workforce. Of course, media make a song and dance about it without actually explaining why the data is collected.

If industry wants to check the availability of the workforce, it puts out some job ads- maybe even fake ones that they are not going to fill.
Seems a more localised and immediate results than trying to interpet what the survey results from ABS might mean.
mick

 

[divs4ever]

If industry wants to check the availability of the workforce, it puts out some job ads- maybe even fake ones that they are not going to fill.

WHAT ?

MORE fake job ads ?

and ones the taxpayer will be funding unlike the bait and switch type some devious businesses already put out

 

[qldfrog]

If industry wants to check the availability of the workforce, it puts out some job ads- maybe even fake ones that they are not going to fill.
Seems a more localised and immediate results than trying to interpet what the survey results from ABS might mean.
mick

And from memory and the surveys i HAD to fill for the ABS when running my company, i would put more trust in the CBA reports based on real economic activity, the the twisted manipulated ABS figures

 

[mullokintyre]

Mick

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 207002
Mick

it sounds like the statistics are thing that has been beaten

mind you , i am meeting more and more non-retirees thinking about disability pensions ( most under 60 to boot )

now it might be more frequent/thorough testing ( which i strongly advise to all working/middle-aged folks ) , but it seems to be a lot of heart disease going around ( from not particularly obese people )

watch for a blow-out of NDIS customers