Dump it Here

[Skate]

The HappyCat Strategy: Why I’m Focusing on Exploration Signals
This is my final post comparing Backtest and Exploration Signals for the HappyCat Strategy. My goal was to compare their equity curves and weekly signals to understand their strengths. After reflection, I’m sticking with reporting only the Exploration Signals for trading.

Trading Summary
The Backtest Signals Trading Results: $35,668
The Exploration Analysis Signals Trading Results: $29,405

The HappyCat Backtest Dashboard
The dashboard reflects the trading results as of the close yesterday, the 2nd of September 2025. The trading results for the Exploration Signals will be in the next posts.









Skate.

 

[Skate]

The HappyCat Exploration Dashboard
The exploration dashboard displays the trading results for the HappyCat Exploration Signals, updated through the market close yesterday, the 2nd of September, 2025.

1. The Backtest Signals Trading Results: $35,668
2. The Exploration Analysis Signals Trading Results: $29,405

Strategy Control
While the results of the Exploration Signals may not be as profitable as the Backtest Signals, the purpose of this exercise isn't to maximise profit. Instead, it's to demonstrate how to maintain complete control and discipline by keeping trading activity strictly within the defined HappyCat Strategy logic.

The HappyCat Exploration Dashboard









Skate.

 

[Skate]

Taking Profits: My Approach to Securing Gains
Take-profit stops lock in gains before reversals hit. The trade-off? You might miss additional upside if prices keep climbing. For me, that's acceptable because I prioritise control over hoping for the best.

A take-profit stop is a tool
I treat take-profit stops as essential risk management tools. While "let profits run" works for trend-following systems chasing big moves, my priority is capital preservation. Predefined profit targets ensure systematic, emotion-free exits instead of leaving money on the table through poor timing or market whims.

Conclusion
Consistent, modest gains beat the uncertainty of holding for maximum profits - at least in my book.






Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

backtest vs exploration
my system recently had a buy on a share which had just jumped wildly..because it was taken over.
Deal was over, money would be locked for months .no system should enter then .
Exploration signal entt allows you to bypass that and buy the next in line
But as per recent experience, where do you draw the line and stop this intervention, deviation?
that's a fine line
my current system bought some WAF, a stock which was on my blacklist as per numerous posts on the WAF thread..as is MSB for example and multiple others, but we are system trading so i entered, as i would with MSB..and pay the price..when as soon as trading halt is release
yet if you start putting your bias, no iron now, or no gold, no bank, whatever, where do you stop....

 

[Skate]

Exploration signal entt allows you to bypass that and buy the next in line
But as per recent experience, where do you draw the line and stop this intervention, deviation?
that's a fine line

@qldfrog, you've hit on a core challenge in systematic trading - balancing the strict rules of a strategy with the need to adapt to unique, real-time events.

The Fine Line
Intervening to skip a trade can feel like a smart move, but the moment that intervention comes from a hunch or personal bias, you risk undermining the discipline that makes systematic trading effective. It's a fine line, as you said. If you start layering in too many subjective filters, you're no longer a systematic trader - you're just trading your biases.

Refine your Rules
The solution is to turn your real-time insights into new rules, making your system smarter and more robust.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

A Disciplined Trading Journey
What happens when emotion is completely removed from trading? The HappyCat Strategy is a 20-week paper trading exercise designed to answer that question. This isn't about chasing maximum profits, but to demonstrate how strictly following a mechanical, rule-based system can lead to consistent and controlled results. Every trade is executed without second-guessing or emotional overrides. The HappyCat Exploration Dashboard shares the latest performance metrics, including wins, losses, and everything in between, offering a transparent view of the strategy’s progress.
















This Week's Exploration Raw Signals


Skate.

 

[Skate]

I noticed when you ran it live was a pretty bullish market out of the covid lows.

Reality Check:
After 10 weeks the HappyCat Strategy has returned solid results. I need to address the elephant in the room: "Paper trading results in a Bull Market" that @rolly1 has alluded to.

The Current Market Context:
1. The XAO daily price chart has been in a clear uptrend since early July.
2. Any trend-following system "trading over this period" would also look like a genius trading strategy right now.

The price chart reflects the paper trading period



Why These Results Need Context:
The HappyCat strategy is a trend-following system, and trends have been abundant. Normally, trend-following systems are notoriously late to exit a position, which the HappyCat Strategy tries to address.

The Real Test Ahead:
Until the HappyCat faces a proper market stress test - whether that's a correction, extended consolidation, or volatility spike - these results should be taken with a "grain of salt". The results are promising but not conclusive. The true measure of any trading system isn't how it performs when everything goes right, but how it handles adversity.

Moving Forward:
I'm continuing to track performance and will be especially focused on how the strategy adapts when market conditions inevitably change. The current results are encouraging, but I'm keeping my expectations realistic until we see how it performs in different market environments.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 207773

Reality Check:
After 10 weeks the HappyCat Strategy has returned solid results. I need to address the elephant in the room: "Paper trading results in a Bull Market" that @rolly1 has alluded to.

The Current Market Context:
1. The XAO daily price chart has been in a clear uptrend since early July.
2. Any trend-following system "trading over this period" would also look like a genius trading strategy right now.

The price chart reflects the paper trading period

View attachment 207774

Why These Results Need Context:
The HappyCat strategy is a trend-following system, and trends have been abundant. Normally, trend-following systems are notoriously late to exit a position, which the HappyCat Strategy tries to address.

The Real Test Ahead:
Until the HappyCat faces a proper market stress test - whether that's a correction, extended consolidation, or volatility spike - these results should be taken with a "grain of salt". The results are promising but not conclusive. The true measure of any trading system isn't how it performs when everything goes right, but how it handles adversity.

Moving Forward:
I'm continuing to track performance and will be especially focused on how the strategy adapts when market conditions inevitably change. The current results are encouraging, but I'm keeping my expectations realistic until we see how it performs in different market environments.

Skate.

indeed, one of the reasons i try to compare my portfolios performances to xjt
or get an xao % change on the backtest period

 

[Skate]

Why Market Breadth is a Game Changer
Ever cheered as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow hit all-time highs, only to sense trouble brewing on the ASX, that’s negative breadth at work when indices climb, but most stocks are slipping. It’s a sign the rally’s driven by a few heavyweights, hiding broader market fragility.

ASX Traders, Take Note
Equal-weight breadth indicators cut through the noise, revealing the true market pulse beyond headline figures. Strong breadth drives sustainable gains while weak breadth flags potential reversals.

Trade smarter and make a breadth your friend to stay ahead!

Skate.

 

[Skate]

A Disciplined Path to Consistency
What happens when you strip emotion from trading? The HappyCat Strategy, a 20-week paper trading experiment, answers that question with a mechanical, rule-based approach. It’s not about chasing big wins but proving that disciplined execution can deliver steady, predictable results—even in low-volatility markets. Each trade follows strict rules, free from hesitation or emotional interference. Check the HappyCat Exploration Dashboard for the latest performance metrics, including wins, losses, and a clear, transparent view of the strategy’s journey.


















The HappyCat Performance
Without a true stress test, whether it be a market correction, prolonged consolidation, or a surge in volatility, these promising results remain unproven. The real test of any trading system lies not in its performance during smooth sailing, but in its resilience when markets turn tough, proving itself under pressure.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Systematic Trend Trading: Precision Exits & Breadth Filters
Trading isn't gambling - it's a calculated risk. The happyCat weekly trend-following system uses clear entry and exit rules. By trading every week, the system effectively balances out the daily noise and provides a clearer picture of sustained trends.

One challenge is false breakouts
Breakouts often fail due to short-term momentum or speculative trading rather than sustained, market-wide trends. To counter this, an equal-weighted breadth filter is applied. You only enter a trade when at least 40% of the XAO are rising, which helps ensure that there is broader market strength and reduces the number of false signals.

The key to profits is using precision exits
Holding on for too long can cause gains to evaporate. While a breadth filter helps, it can still be difficult to understand why some price movements occur, as market sentiment can be tricky and company prices may shift without clear reasons.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Trading What You Test: The Power of Backtest Signals
I've been using two ways to generate trading signals in Amibroker, but I'm finding the most reliable method is to trade directly from the backtest engine.

Exploration Analysis
This method is great for finding signals and getting a pre-auction list. I use it to find candidates and calculate my share allocation with a 3% premium. But sometimes, these signals can be different from what the backtest shows.

The backtest engine is different
It's not just a screener - it's a true portfolio simulator. It knows your capital and how your positions interact. Trading signals from the backtest ensure you're following the exact rules of your tested system. This removes emotion and keeps you disciplined.

Summary
When you trade backtest signals, you’re live-testing the same performance that generated your equity curve. It’s the purest form of systematic trading.






Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

gambling - it's a calculated risk.

that is what i used to tell my detractors when i was punting on the race-tracks

sure that 10-1 shot MIGHT break a leg , the jockey/driver MIGHT fall off ( etc etc. ) but there are certain tail-winds ( the distance , the track , others over-estimate the rivals ) when you select thoughtfully

and as such it is a percentage game ( the unexpected can always happen ) but if you get paid 10-1 for a 50/50 chance ( or better ) do you take that risk ( the major downside risk is the next outing despite you failing to collect this time the payout will be drastically reduced )

now a very ( mathematically ) savvy Pakistani bloke i new would bet MOST of the field in doubles and trebles but weight it so that IF he collected he always won ( and had a 90% success rate when i knew him )

but of course neither of us could do that every week/race-day , you had to watch and wait for those opportunities to arrive

one major flaw in back-testing ( and paper-trading ) is it assumes your order is always filled when a price target is hit ( that AIN'T always so in the real world )

 

[Skate]

I'm done with paper trading
Paper trading is a risk-free exercise that teaches you nothing about real-world trading emotions. Without money on the line, there's no pressure, no fear of losing, and no true excitement of winning - yet that's exactly what makes trading exciting and challenging.

Paper trading leaves out the most important part
How you'll react under pressure when your money is actually at risk. To truly understand trading, you need to feel the fear of losing and the adrenaline of winning.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The HappyCat Signal Generator
Welcome to the first post in my weekly series where I share potential trading signals derived from the HappyCat strategy. This series is designed to give you a head start on your research by letting you decide which signals are worth investigating each week. These signals are generated using a clear, consistent set of rules that filter and rank companies before the market opens. Think of this as a proactive tool that looks forward, not backward, providing key information so you can follow the trades with better insight.

Over the coming posts
I’ll explain what I aim to achieve with this exercise and how you can make the most of these signals to enhance your understanding of systematically generated trading signals.

This week's signals



Skate.

 

[Skate]

How the HappyCat Signals Are Generated
The HappyCat Signal Generator uses a systematic set of rules to scan the All-Ordinaries Index (XAO) each week to find companies that meet the HappyCat trading criteria. It starts by filtering out stocks that don't meet basic thresholds such as minimum price and volume, ensuring the signals focus on sufficiently liquid and tradable companies.

Next
The HappyCat signal generator looks for companies showing strong momentum and ranks them based on recent performance to highlight the best opportunities.

Finally
The HappyCat signal generator checks for specific price breakouts that trigger a buy signal. All these conditions must be met before a signal is generated, providing a consistent and disciplined approach to identifying potential trades.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The Three Most Important Questions Every Trader Needs to Answer
Trading comes down to three simple but crucial questions:

1. What to buy?
Choosing the right stock is essential. The HappyCat signals generator identifies promising stocks based on momentum, volume, and ranking filters.

2. When to buy?
Timing your entry is critical. Signals are generated weekly on Fridays to highlight breakout points before the market opens on Monday, giving you time to plan.

3. When to sell?
Exiting a trade properly is what ultimately secures your profit or limits your loss. The HappyCat provides clear colour-coded exit signals based on predefined stop rules. The percentage profit/loss column displays the result of the trade.

Answering these three questions with a disciplined approach is the key to successful trading.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Why Selling Is a Big Deal
Many traders focus on finding the perfect entry, but it's the exit that determines their profit or loss. Even the best entry can turn into a losing trade without solid exit rules.

It's all about the rules
The HappyCat strategy uses predefined exit rules that automatically trigger sell signals based on four conditions:

1. The Take Profit Stop: You hit your profit target and exit with a gain.
2. The Trailing Stop: The stock starts to fall after entry, locking in profits or limiting losses.
3. The Stale Stop: The position is no longer moving as expected, signalling it's time to exit.
4. The Max Loss Stop: The price falls below your acceptable risk limit, preventing bigger losses.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Understanding the Analysis Chart Columns
The exploration analysis chart shows detailed information to help interpret each signal:

Columns Explanation
# 1. Ticker: ASX company code
# 2. Time/Date: Analysis generation date
# 3. Company Name: Identifies the stock.
# 4. # Shares: Number of shares to buy within your fixed investment size.
# 5. $ Buy Offer: Suggested price adjusted for a 3% premium of the last closing to secure the opening price.
# 6. $ Cost: Total cost, including commissions based on your order size.
# 7. Rank: Position score ranking, the lower the number, the higher-ranked the opportunities.
# 8. $ Sell Offer: The target sell price is adjusted similarly for spreads when exiting.
# 9. Stop Type: Colour-coded exit explanation:
(a) Green = Take Profit Stop
(b) Red = Trailing Stop
(c) Gold = Stale Stop
# 10. Weeks In Trade: How long the trade was held before the exit signal.
# 11. Profit/Loss %: Outcome percentage - showing colour-coded gains or losses on each trade.
# 12. Close: Current or last close price of the stock.

The Detailed Analysis View
Helps you analyse trades in real-time, deciding which signals to follow and how the strategy plays out in practice.



Skate.

 

[dyna]

While "let profits run" works for trend-following systems

That haphazard style makes plenty of money for someone like me too , with only a basic , discretionary trading system . It's been working well for decades , so why change tack now ?
Can't be bothered to learn coding now ,either . It seems too complicated. An educated beginner finding this wonderful thread would definitely not be computer illiterate , like me .
Finally Mr Skate , I'm so pleased you've said what has to be said about paper trading . Old mate " Share Success " called it right somewhere else . It's a completely utter waste of time . Don't do it . Even for a beginner , just jump right in with real dough .