Possibility of Nuclear War

[SirRumpole]

The gathering of an axis of evil (Putin, Xi, Kim, Modi , and of course Dan Andrews) in Bejing this week celebrating China's military threat may prompt Trump to strike while he can and not wait until it's too late. How likely do we think this is?

 

[Sean K]

The gathering of an axis of evil (Putin, Xi, Kim, Modi , and of course Dan Andrews) in Bejing this week celebrating China's military threat may prompt Trump to strike while he can and not wait until it's too late. How likely do we think this is?

I think MAD means that we won't have a nuke on nuke war. I can't imagine a situation where one would ever be used against a non-nuclear power. Maybe Israel would if they were going to be overwhelmed in a larger regional conflict against a coalition of Muslim countries, but they're divided and Jordan and Saudi wouldn't support it. Russia using a tactical nuke against Ukraine would be a remote possibility but because the fallout would likely affect NATO countries it would be deemed as a regional threat and escalate, so nope. Would China nuke Japan if they support Taiwan and start losing significant casualties or look like losing? Unlikely because of the US security guarantee. So, hard to imagine really. Would only start because of an accident I think.

 

[basilio]

And what about India and Pakistan ? Both Nuclear powers . Very serious confrontations in the recent past.

Russia not using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine ? Hopefully not but they have been deliberately opened up this possibility in the recent past.

Israel not using Nuclear weapons ? In theory only if they faced an overwhelming attack.

That can never happen given their military strength and the way they have defanged all regional military opposition. However does this leave the way clear for a "limited " nuclear attack if it decides it wants to press home its current dominance in the region ? The current Israeli regime is very militaristic.

Nuclear incidents/accidents ? Always a possibility and there have been a number of incidents where nuclear war has been narrowly avoided becasue of some errors. More than one might realise

Putin's expanded nuclear doctrine will allow Russia to bomb non-nuclear states. What's the impetus?

Russian President Vladimir Putin outlines three key changes to the Kremlin's rules around the use of nuclear weapons for the first time since the decree was signed in 2020.

www.abc.net.au

The 25 Nuclear Misunderstandings That Almost Started World War III

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to threaten to use nuclear weapons as retaliation for any attack from the West. For many, this threat brings back some of the constant state of fear that was commonplace during the Cold War. At the peak of the conflict between the two global powers...

247wallst.com

 

[IFocus]

I think MAD means that we won't have a nuke on nuke war. I can't imagine a situation where one would ever be used against a non-nuclear power. Maybe Israel would if they were going to be overwhelmed in a larger regional conflict against a coalition of Muslim countries, but they're divided and Jordan and Saudi wouldn't support it. Russia using a tactical nuke against Ukraine would be a remote possibility but because the fallout would likely affect NATO countries it would be deemed as a regional threat and escalate, so nope. Would China nuke Japan if they support Taiwan and start losing significant casualties or look like losing? Unlikely because of the US security guarantee. So, hard to imagine really. Would only start because of an accident I think.

Totally agree…..but what would Taco do?

No one knows including Taco.

 

[StockyGuy]

I think MAD means that we won't have a nuke on nuke war. I can't imagine a situation where one would ever be used against a non-nuclear power. Maybe Israel would if they were going to be overwhelmed in a larger regional conflict against a coalition of Muslim countries, but they're divided and Jordan and Saudi wouldn't support it. Russia using a tactical nuke against Ukraine would be a remote possibility but because the fallout would likely affect NATO countries it would be deemed as a regional threat and escalate, so nope. Would China nuke Japan if they support Taiwan and start losing significant casualties or look like losing? Unlikely because of the US security guarantee. So, hard to imagine really. Would only start because of an accident I think.

MAD as a kind of guarantee of safety assumes rational actors. To steal a line from The Dark Knight, "some men just want to watch the world burn". To some folk a world where your guys aren't on top is a world that doesn't even deserve to exist. The nuclear rhetoric from Putin's cronies is more than alarming. I have serious doubts some countries would even fire back with nukes, after they've been nuked! Depending on who's in charge, a feminised woke UK government might choose not to return fire, for the good of humanity etc.

 

[sptrawler]

MAD as a kind of guarantee of safety assumes rational actors. To steal a line from The Dark Knight, "some men just want to watch the world burn". To some folk a world where your guys aren't on top is a world that doesn't even deserve to exist. The nuclear rhetoric from Putin's cronies is more than alarming. I have serious doubts some countries would even fire back with nukes, after they've been nuked! Depending on who's in charge, a feminised woke UK government might choose not to return fire, for the good of humanity etc.

So true, Russia is the only one that would benefit from a war, they would be given China's technology, if they were allies and as you say the EU would probably not retaliate.
China doesn't benefit from a war, the West is its consumer base and as the West continues its financial decline they will probably implode due to social unrest as living standards fall, so why does China want to start a war it doesn't need to. It's winning already.

 

[SirRumpole]

Why does China want to start a war it doesn't need to. It's winning already.

Maybe Trump wants to start a war because he is losing.

If the trade war doesn't work, what's left?

 

[StockyGuy]

Maybe Trump wants to start a war because he is losing.

If the trade war doesn't work, what's left?

These days I guess every thread on here in the end is a Trump thread

 

[SirRumpole]

These days I guess every thread on here in the end is a Trump thread

Yeah, well he seems to be determined to make an impact in the world, one way or another.

 

[sptrawler]

Maybe Trump wants to start a war because he is losing.

If the trade war doesn't work, what's left?

Fortunately he wont be around, because it will still take a number of years for China not to need the West buying their stuff and their high tech will still take some time to overtake the West.
It's a bit like the U.S in the old days, the Indians had a lot more people, but the whites had guns.

But that wont last forever, the West will become more and more reliant on China for manufactured goods, but as India, Thailand etc become more affluent, China will become less dependent on the West buying their stuff.

Then the West's buying power and currency values deminish.

It ain't rocket science, we have a trillion dollars debt and run a budget deficits.

How long does that run for, before someone says, " hey mate, your money's worth $hit". Lol

 

[sptrawler]

These days I guess every thread on here in the end is a Trump thread

So true, the West has become fat and lazy, exploiting cheap labour countries, Trump has tried to get the U.S multinationals to move their production back home.
Well that wont work, but it has at least highlighted the issue.

 

[SirRumpole]

Fortunately he wont be around, because it will still take a number of years for China not to need the West buying their stuff and their high tech will still take some time to overtake the West.
It's a bit like the U.S in the old days, the Indians had a lot more people, but the whites had guns.

But that wont last forever, the West will become more and more reliant on China for manufactured goods, but as India, Thailand etc become more affluent, China will become less dependent on the West buying their stuff.

Then the West's buying power and currency values deminish.

It ain't rocket science, we have a trillion dollars debt and run a budget deficits.

How long does that run for, before someone says, " hey mate, your money's worth $hit". Lol

Yes, well we (the West) are financing China's military buildup which one day will be used against us.

Our governments may wake up to that fact one day, hopefully before it's too late if it's not already.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes, well we (the West) are financing China's military buildup which one day will be used against us.

Our governments may wake up to that fact one day, hopefully before it's too late if it's not already.

The problem is, we are addicted to cheap junk and politicians are addicted to easy money, so nothing is going to change. Lol