August 2025 DDD

[Sean K]

Can someone please go and check on Ducati? I can't function without a DDD.

 

[qldfrog]

Can someone please go and check on Ducati? I can't function without a DDD.

I miss it also but Mr Ducati reacted to one of my 4am post so I am sure he is ok probably just busy.
Hard to comprehend for you and me Sean, but there are still some people working in the west and seeing how busy i am retired, i have no clue how they manage with jobs

 

[UMike]

I miss it also but Mr Ducati reacted to one of my 4am post so I am sure he is ok probably just busy.
Hard to comprehend for you and me Sean, but there are still some people working in the west and seeing how busy i am retired, i have no clue how they manage with jobs

So true.
.
Seems like a lot of work goes into it.

 

[divs4ever]

So true.
.
Seems like a lot of work goes into it.

just deciding which snippets of news are important/relevant ( enough to be read/posted ) would be a serious chore for me , i assume he uses some sort of smart-scan on his news feeds , and goes from there

 

[qldfrog]

just deciding which snippets of news are important/relevant ( enough to be read/posted ) would be a serious chore for me , i assume he uses some sort of smart-scan on his news feeds , and goes from there

There is a serious amount of effort indeed, unselfishness and good will involved.
I understand some may not share Mr Ducati economic views but the amount of work and searches subscription, background work involved is enormous.
We should have a yearly award to the best posters.
But i acknowledge it would be hard to determine proper criterias, @Skate, @ducati916, @Smurf1976, @tech/a and many more have all provided nuggets of technical knowledge here on various area and others have added wits, conversation and ideas, challenges which add life to the core harsh technicalities.
And what about Joe the conductor of this fine orchestra?
I am very happy to belong here
Thanks everyone

 

[divs4ever]

There is a serious amount of effort indeed, unselfishness and good will involved.
I understand some may not share Mr Ducati economic views but the amount of work and searches subscription, background work involved is enormous.
We should have a yearly award to the best posters.
But i acknowledge it would be hard to determine proper criterias, @Skate, @ducati916, @Smurf1976, @tech/a and many more have all provided nuggets of technical knowledge here on various area and others have added wits, conversation and ideas, challenges which add life to the core harsh technicalities.
And what about Joe the conductor of this fine orchestra?
I am very happy to belong here
Thanks everyone

i get the impression @ducati916 includes articles he does not agree with , which is also great as it gives a reduction in bias ( unlike some official publishers )

an award or some other form of recognition sounds encouraging as long as it doesn't result in the nasty side of strong competition

 

[ducati916]

Afternoon chaps....

Better late than never!

I had a joke in the 2010s that went like this:

I’m a contrarian.

-Everyone

It was cool to be contrarian coming out of the Great Financial Crisis.

We all read The Big Short.

Everyone wanted to be the next Steve Eisman, Michael Burry or Meredith Whitney.

Like most things in the markets, the contrarianism went too far. Everyone thought going against the grain was the way to make money.

Zero Hedge built a cult following of permabears during one of the great bull markets of all-time!

The investment office I worked for invested in a hedge fund that owned a piece of John Paulson’s fund that shorted subprime mortgages. Unfortunately it was a fund-of-funds so the allocation wasn’t large enough to make up for losses elsewhere. There was some regret that they didn’t go bigger.

The recency bias kicked in big time so in the aftermath of the crisis they created a new fund to invest exclusively in the next Big Short. Investors were excited about the opportunity at the time, but they tried shorting Japanese government bonds and some other esoteric trades that never worked.

Turns out once-in-a-lifetime trades don’t come around that often. Who knew?

Needless to say, this fund was closed in short order since the financial world doesn’t come apart at the seams every single year.

By the end of the 2010s the contrarian mindset started to shift. The bull market had gone on long enough to snuff out all of the crash calls. It died in the 2020s as first-level thinking beat the pants off of second-level thinking. Everyone came to realize that making predictions is easier than making money when it comes to being a perma-contrarian.

I guess you could say the new buy the dip mentality is contrarian in some respects. But in the early-2010s everyone thought the market was going to rollover again. Now everyone thinks it does nothing but go up. The big short has morphed into the big long.

You have people who made life-changing portfolio gains, not from betting against the herd but investing alongside of it. Why would you ever sell Nvidia, Bitcoin, Tesla, Facebook, index funds, etc.? Everything that falls immediately goes back up. Don’t fight the trend. Up and to the right.

Permabears have basically been rounded up and thrown in pundit prison.

No one listens to these people anymore because they’ve been wrong for 15 years straight. Any time these people spout off people dunk on them relentlessly with all of the instances where they called for a systemwide crash in the past and were dead wrong.


That’s progress.

There’s also a huge difference between legitimate contrarians and permabear charlatans who prey on your worst financial fears.

We’re starting to see some rumblings from some reputable contrarians who are worried the current environment has gone too far.

Howard Marks wrote a new memo about AI, elevated valuations and why he’s worried:

The existence of overvaluation can never be proved, and there’s no reason to think the conditions discussed above imply there’ll be a correction anytime soon. But, taken together, they tell me the stock market has moved from “elevated” to “worrisome.”

Burton Malkiel wrote an op-ed for the New York Times with a headline that reads:


Here’s a passage:

No one can know for sure where the stock market will go next. But there are worrisome signs that investor optimism may have gotten out of hand. The recent exuberance of investors raises the question of whether they are making the same mistakes they made in the past — errors that could prove very costly down the line. If history is repeating itself, what can we do to protect our financial futures?

OK, sure. People have been saying we’re in the 9th inning since like 2017. What does this mean for investors? What should you do?

Marks offers up some options for people who are nervous:


And here’s his prescription:

Because “overvaluation” is never synonymous with “sure to go down soon,” it’s rarely wise to go to those extremes. I know I never have. But I have no problem thinking it’s time for INVESTCON 5. And if you lighten up on things that appear historically expensive and switch into things that appear safer, there may be relatively little to lose from the market continuing to grind higher for a while . . . or anyway not enough to lose sleep over.

That seems reasonable for people who are worried about the potential for an AI bubble bursting.

Malkiel gave similar advice:

Market timing can ruin a well thought out investment plan. Just because the market is bipolar doesn’t mean you should be too.

There are actions investors should take. If you are retired, and need money soon, you should invest it in safe short-term bonds. Suppose you are in your late 50s, and your retirement fund is well balanced, for example, at 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds. Check to see if the recent rise in stock prices has increased your equity position, perhaps to around 75 percent. If so, sell enough stock to get back to the preferred 60/40 allocation suitable for your age and risk tolerance. Periodic rebalancing is always sensible and gives you the best chance to buy low and sell high.

The hard part about trying to predict overvalued markets is that no one knows whether you’re in 1996 or 1999 when you’re in it. Everyone knows when you’re in a financial crisis while it’s happening. Bubbles are only known with the benefit of hindsight.

I have no idea what inning we’re in. There is speculative behavior and the AI spending binge is otherworldly. But people have been calling this market overvalued for well over a decade. The market can look irrational for a lot longer than you think.

Contrarians will make a comeback at some point.

The current environment cannot last forever.

But most of the time contrarians are wrong.

The trend is usually your friend…until it ends.

Michael and I talked about contrarians, overvalued markets and much more on this week’s Animal Spirits video:




Tom Lee isn’t done taking shots. The high-profile strategist and frequent CNBC guest is expanding his ETF lineup after his debut fund turned into one of the biggest hits of the past year.

The Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) only launched last November, but it’s already pulled in $2.1 billion of inflows, with assets climbing to $2.3 billion once you tack on price appreciation.

Investors have been drawn in by a strategy that blends Lee’s market views with quantitative screens, producing returns that have topped the S&P 500.

GRNY gained 15.4% in the year-to-date period through Aug. 21, beating the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)’s 9.2% return by a wide margin. Since inception, it’s up 14.2% versus 7.8% for the S&P 500 fund.

Inside The Granny Shots Strategy​

The “Granny Shots” approach is designed to capture multiple tailwinds at once. Lee and his team identify themes they believe will drive markets. Everything from macroeconomic shifts and monetary policy changes to demographics, industrial trends, technology adoption, and the business cycle.

Some are short-term, like seasonality and PMI [Purchasing Managers Index] recoveries. Others are longer-term, like energy security, cybersecurity, the rise of millennials, and easing financial conditions. Stocks that line up with at least two of those themes are considered candidates, then narrowed down through quantitative screens to produce the final portfolio.

The end result is an equal-weighted basket of 20 to 50 names. As of now, GRNY holds 39 stocks, including Palo Alto Networks, Axon Enterprise, Monster Beverage, Live Nation, JPMorgan Chase, Costco, Alphabet, Netflix, Goldman Sachs, and Meta. The fund charges 0.75% in expenses.

Taking Aim At Small & Mid Caps​

The combination of Lee’s star power, strong performance, and a distinctive strategy has turned GRNY into one of the fastest-growing active equity ETFs on the market. Now he’s looking to press the advantage with two more filings: the Fundstrat Granny Shots US Small- & Mid-Cap ETF and the Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap & Income ETF.

The small- and mid-cap fund takes the same playbook down the size spectrum. According to the filing, it defines small- and mid-capitalization U.S. companies as those in the bottom 15% of the market by market capitalization.

As of Aug. 13, that means companies worth $25 billion or less. The fund will likely hold a bigger, more diversified basket than GRNY, with 20 to 200 names.

The Income Play​

The income fund, meanwhile, invests in large caps but changes the mandate. Here, income generation comes first, with capital appreciation secondary. Large-cap stocks are defined as those in the top 85% of the U.S. equity market, or companies worth more than $25 billion.

What sets it apart from GRNY, which also invests in large cap stocks, is the use of option-writing strategies. According to the filing, the new fund will actively choose among different option strategies based on its market outlook, with the goal of hitting the fund’s income target while still allowing for some upside. Covered calls were cited as one of the strategies the fund may employ.

It’s a notable pivot into one of the hottest, and most polarizing, segments of the ETF industry. Covered call products like JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) have exploded in popularity.

But critics argue they leave too much on the table by capping gains in strong markets without providing real protection when stocks tumble. One hedge fund manager recently described them as a way to “farm retail investors.”

Lee, looking to build on his early ETF success, is clearly leaning into that trend. Whether investors follow him into small caps and covered calls the way they did into GRNY will be the real test of whether Granny Shots was a one-off hit or the start of an ETF franchise.

Jerome Powell has given his last speech to Jackson Hole as chairman of the Federal Reseve, and he didn’t push back against the clamor for a September rate cut. That was the most important point for markets; it was quite undeniable, and led to an emphatic market reaction. The text of Powell’s speech is worth reading in full, but the key phrases were: “Downside risks to employment are rising,” and “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” In other words, yes, it might be a good idea if we were to cut. That ignited a rally for both stocks and bonds. On the charged question of whether tariffs will stoke higher inflation, Powell said that a “reasonable base case” was for “relatively short-lived” effects, or a one-time shift in the price level. That is what advocates of a rate cut want to hear. It’s the tariff-driven inflation that has kept the Fed on hold. Crucially, Powell suggested that slowing employment could mitigate tariffs’ effects on inflation expectations: One possibility is that workers, who see their real incomes decline because of higher prices, demand and get higher wages from employers, setting off adverse wage-price dynamics. Given that the labor market is not particularly tight and faces increasing downside risks, that outcome does not seem likely. In other words, if the labor market is weak, then sadly we’re not going to have enough animal spirits to drive inflation higher. So we can cut to help the labor market. Inflation swaps give this theory some support. The onset of the Trump 2.0 trade rhetoric drove a big increase in projections for 12 months ahead, but not for 24 months. The market is betting on a bump in inflation that proves transitory: The one-year projection has been stable since the Liberation Day tariffs were introduced in April, even as actual inflation numbers have turned and started to rise — but note that a 3% projection for two years hence, which is inching upward, is bad news for the doves. The latest Conference Board consumer sentiment survey gives some guarded backing. Those believing that jobs are plentiful are falling fast, but still easily outnumber those who find them hard to come by. This is greater positivity than for almost a decade after the Global Financial Crisis, or for the early 1990s: With the stock market enjoying an epic rally, it’s interesting to see the similarities with 2000, when jobs optimism evaporated rapidly as the stock market turned. The rate-sensitive two-year yield enjoyed a big day, falling 10 basis points. But the greatest moves of the last year came after major events in the trade war, and after big surprises in employment data (in October, which suggested the Fed had been wrong to go for a jumbo cut), and earlier this month (negative, suggesting the Fed had erred by not cutting two days earlier): The market sees the Fed as data-driven, and finds the true state of the underlying economy harder to gauge than the Fed’s reaction function to it. For evidence, look at how fed funds futures’ implicit betting on a cut next month has varied going back to January. After Liberation Day, there was briefly a belief that three cuts would be needed. After the Trump administration relented on China (an uneasy truce that continues with another 90-day negotiating period), the odds have reverted to a likely but not certain call for one cut. They moved after the last two employment reports, but barely shifted after Jackson Hole: The odds on a cut in September remain at about 80%. That reflects a reading of the employment market. It’s slowing, and probably (not definitely) decelerating enough that the Fed will feel obliged to cut. There’s still a one-in-five chance that surprisingly strong employment numbers next month, or sharply higher inflation, will change that. That’s because, as Jonathan Levin points out, while Powell didn’t hit back at a cut, he didn’t suggest he was raring to do it. To quote James Bianco of Bianco Research: Powell was unclear about what he wanted to do next month. This effectively turned his speech into a Rorschach test; everyone sees their priors in what he said… To paraphrase Miracle Max in “The Princess Bride,” a September rate cut is mostly a done deal, but that means it’s also slightly not a done deal. Surprisingly strong employment data next month or (perhaps less likely) a sharp rise in inflation could yet leave the Fed on hold.

​ ​ Counting Seats on the FOMC​

Something fascinating is happening to commentary about the Fed — it begins to read almost exactly like an analysis of Congress. Which party is up, which is down, who can get a majority? Congress isn’t currently regarded as the most functional of institutions; the risks are glaring that increasing partisan polarization have the same effect on the Fed. If the effort to force out Lisa Cook as a Fed governor continues (it will) and is successful, then four of the seven-member Board of Governors will be on the president’s side. But the Federal Open Markets Committee also includes five of the eight regional Fed presidents, who take turns to have a vote on monetary policy. He would remain short of a majority of the full 12-member FOMC. The regional presidents tend to be more hawkish, and are selected by their banks’ (relatively apolitical) boards. However, George Pollack of Signum Global Advisors shows that the administration could take an overall majority, if it is sufficiently ruthless: The next “slate” of regional Fed presidents will come up for appointment in March 2026 (they are voted in for five-year terms in years whose date ends in 1 and 6). While these appointments are, once again, meant to be bottom-up and devoid of federal politics, the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors must approve of their selection. In theory, this could mean that the US president could use his functional majority on the Board to veto the election of regional presidents (who eventually compose the FOMC) seen as unsupportive of his monetary agenda. The Fed’s makeover may not stop with the building. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg Pollack also points out that the president might try to remove regional governors of whom he disapproved. I) A 2019 opinion from the Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel that concludes the Board of Governors can remove a Fed bank president “at will.” II) A particular section of the Federal Reserve Act likewise finds that the board of directors of the regional Fed can dismiss officers “at pleasure.” This would be a brutal power play, but the move against Cook and the extraordinary barrage of criticism of Powell are themselves pretty brutal. It’s not out of the question. Without formally changing the Fed’s independence, the existing rules would allow the president to end it. It involves breaking norms, and compromising perceptions of the Fed as an independent body, but it could happen. There are many problems with this. One currently ignored is that divisions between hawks and doves at any one time don’t map on to underlying camps of economic thought. Keynesians can sometimes be either hawks or doves, and the same is true of monetarists. A Fed team micro-engineered to take rates as low as they can to help the government pay down its debts over the next couple of years might yet decide it wants to do something much less politically palatable in future. Powell himself was appointed by Trump for reasons that seemed good at the time. If this administration sets these precedents, others can follow them. The Fed is set up so that its terms don’t overlap with the political cycle. But that can change. This is a dangerous game, and Powell’s readiness to consider a cut if employment worsens shows that it’s totally unnecessary. It’s not going to stop, but it should.

One clear casualty from Powell’s words: the dollar. The US currency has been mounting a recovery of late, following a steep selloff in the first part of the year. Friday’s fall brought the Bloomberg dollar index, which includes both developed and emerging market currencies, back below its 50-day moving average. The fall in the dollar has paused, but with lower US rates in prospect, it’s not staging a clear recovery:


There’s an element of heads I win, tails you lose here. Over time, exchange rates tend to follow rate differentials — higher yields attract flows from currencies with lower rates. That changed during the kerfuffle over Liberation Day tariffs, when the dollar sank as yield differentials rose sharply in its favor. That was a vote of no-confidence in the US as a jurisdiction. Yields rose because people were nervous about keeping money in the US.

The good news is that that crisis of confidence is over. The normal correlation is back in force. The bad news is that yield differentials are shifting against the dollar:


For best results, those reading this on the terminal might open this chart in GP. More technically, Jens Nordvig of Exante Data offers this chart of intro-day correlations between US short rates and the dollar’s exchange rate with the euro. The correlation disappeared altogether during the spring trade war furor. Since the August unemployment surprise, the link between the two are suddenly as strong as ever:


Nordvig says the dollar is no longer driven by capital flow shifts, as in the first half:

In the coming months, as the Fed is likely to embark on a fresh easing cycle, the swing in sentiment around the magnitude and persistence of Fed easing will likely be a key dollar driver.

The administration wants a weaker dollar, which helps US competitiveness — even as it stokes inflationary pressure. It looks like all the political pressure on the Fed is paying off as the dollar depreciates.

Every great move has a story. And when it comes to silver, the charts are telling us something big is brewing — but the story behind it adds even more weight. The Silver Cup and Handle Take a step back. On a 50-year chart, silver has been building one of the biggest cup-and-handle patterns you’ll ever see. These patterns, when they resolve, don’t just break — they explode. ​ The key level? $37.60. It’s the highest quarterly close in silver’s history. If we close above it, we’re talking about a technical breakout with decades of energy behind it. This isn’t just another move; it’s the kind of setup that rewrites the narrative around an entire asset class. I’ve been highlighting this number for months. Above $38, I’m not just bullish — I’m incredibly bullish. Silver and the Swiss Franc It’s not just silver’s chart that’s lining up. Look at the Swiss franc (CHF/USD). It’s showing the same rounded base and breakout energy. ​ There’s a historical reason for that. Years ago, an older trader explained to me that Switzerland’s deep ties to silver are often overlooked. For centuries, Switzerland was where wealth went to hide — the safe haven of safe havens. He told me flat out: “Switzerland is the central banker’s central bank. That’s why cash always finds a home there — and why precious metals trade with it.” Look it up. Switzerland’s monetary history is unique, and its role in the global system explains why the franc and silver so often move together. That connection isn’t coincidence. It’s structure.

Chinese equity indexes are at their highest levels in 3.5 years. In local currency, Chinese stocks look even better– the Shanghai Composite is trading at its highest level since 2015. And while iShares Large Cap China $FXI is up 33% off the April lows, keeping pace with or slightly beating the S&P 500 and developed Europe, the situation for China is a bit different. Unlike its global counterparts, which have been in uptrends for years, the bull market in China is literally just getting started. While the US and Europe have been grinding higher, Chinese stocks have been stuck in a massive accumulation phase for the past several years. We covered the historic initiation thrusts in China last fall. While these kinds of momentum readings give the green light for a fresh uptrend, they don’t tell us when exactly it’s coming. In the case of China, I think it’s starting right now. Any bit of upside momentum at the current level will result in a decisive resolution of these textbook reversal patterns.

​

FXI and KWEB failed to break out at this same level in October of last year, after the momentum thrust, and fizzled out right here again in March. But I’m thinking things are different these days… and the third time is going to be the charm. Unlike those other tests, there is clean and clear supporting evidence in the form of bullish risk appetite this time around. Here’s our “ARK of China” custom index to illustrate this point.

​

It is an equal-weight basket of some of the highest-growth and most speculative tech stocks China has to offer. The ARK of China Index is breaking out and reclaiming its VWAP from the prior-cycle high, which is something it could not achieve earlier this year, when the index found resistance and rolled over at the same level. In other words, the most risk-on Chinese stocks are completing a trend reversal and leading the charge higher. What could be more bullish? A US market equivalent would be analyzing the relative trends in discretionary, technology, or speculative technology stocks to assess whether investors are embracing risk. Investors reaching for an increasing level of risk is a fundamental bull market behavior. A bull cycle couldn’t sustain itself without this kind of activity. And right now, for the first time in several years, the animal spirits are out in full force in China. The most risk-on stocks are completing a major trend reversal… and if the breakout sticks… I expect the rest of China to do the same. That means funds like FXI, KWEB, and CQQQ will all be embarking on fresh uptrends. Are you ready for it? I sure am.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The president and the Fed have been on a collision course for months. At 8:02pm ET last night, the crash took place, as Trump said he was firing Cook for alleged false claims in her mortgage applications four years ago. Why it matters: Cook says she will fight what she and her lawyers characterize as an illegal attempt to fire her, setting up a legal battle royale over who is really in charge of the world's most important central bank. Is it the governors appointed to lengthy, staggered terms meant to assure a measure of political independence, or is it any president willing to cast aside rules and norms established over more than a century? Even though it only concerns an attempt to fire one governor out of seven, for believers in central bank independence, the litigation that results from this is for all the marbles. Between the lines: If the president can fire Cook for the allegations involving some old mortgage applications that she has thus far had no legal recourse to address, he can fire pretty much anyone. It could, wrote Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha and Marco Casiraghi, establish a precedent that the president "has substantial discretion to determine what meets the 'for cause' standard for removal in the future." If Trump succeeds, it will smooth the path for him to install a majority of appointees atop the Fed board sooner rather than later. A majority on the board could, in turn, seek to replace presidents of Federal Reserve banks and cast aside some of the guardrails meant to keep those appointments insulated from politics. State of play: As Cook's legal team and the Fed's in-house lawyers grapple with the issues involved, the question of what comes next is messy. For example, consider a question we don't know the answer to as this newsletter is sent: Is Cook currently a Fed governor? Does she have access to her office and email account? If there were a Fed policy meeting today, would she be in it? We asked a Fed spokesperson about Cook's status both last night and this morning and have not yet received an answer. Trump ally James Fishback said on X last night that "if [Fed chair] Jerome Powell allows Lisa Cook in the building" after Trump's firing, "he's complicit." What's next: Cook is likely to seek a stay on Trump's firing from the courts, but how the court may rule on whether she can remain in office while the issue is litigated is unknown. Of note: The Fed's next policy meeting starts three weeks from today. It appears likely to cut interest rates — though a mere quarter-point, not to the radically lower borrowing costs Trump seeks.

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals The United States seems to be speedrunning toward the kind of economic governance seen in countries like Argentina and Turkey, with central banks more directly under the thumb of political leadership. Financial markets appear mostly unperturbed. The S&P 500 was flat as of 11am ET. Yes, but: There's a little more evidence that bond markets see a potential shift in how the Fed will set policy. The yield curve steepened, which would make sense if you believe the Fed will cut rates more aggressively in the near term but tolerate higher inflation in the long run. That said, the moves were modest. By the numbers: The two-year Treasury yield, sensitive to the near-term Fed policy decisions, was down 0.04 percentage point this morning. The 30-year Treasury was up 0.04 point. While those swings aren't massive and long-term borrowing costs remain below 5%, they are consistent with a world in which the central bank is a little more reactive to political imperatives. Of note: The muted moves may reflect market belief that Cook will prevail in her battle to stay on the board — a legal result that would harden the Fed's independence safeguard. On Polymarket this morning, betting contracts only put 34% odds on Cook being out as a Fed governor by the end of the year.

Seoul Mates in Energy: U.S. Powers Up South Korea



- The official visit of South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung to the US marked one of the highlights of Trump’s tariff deals as the two sides formally upheld South Korea’s $100 billion commitment to buy US-origin energy over the next four years.

- South Korea is already the largest buyer of US crude in Asia, ramping up imports every year since 2020 and reaching 460-470 kbd currently – such a pace of imports would equate to $12-14 billion per year, or half the promised commitment.

- South Korea’s imports of US LNG peaked in 2021 at 8.9 million tonnes and have been on a declining trend since, as the country’s importers prefer shorter-haul options from Australia and Qatar.

- Similarly, 2018 marked the peak of coal shipments from the United States to Korea at 3.7 million tonnes, dropping to a mere 1.4 million tonnes last year and staging a gradual recovery since.

Market Movers

- Canada’s leading oil producer Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) agreed to buy oil sands peer MEG Energy (TSE:MEG) for $5.7 billion in a cash and stock deal, sending Cenovus’ stock up almost 8% on Friday.

- Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) delayed development drilling at the UK’s largest untapped oil field Rosebank to Q1 2026 after the UK government demanded additional emissions documentation.

- US upstream firm Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY) agreed to purchase peer shale producer Vital Energy (NYSE:VTLE) in an all-stock deal worth $3.1 billion, adding some 70,000 b/d of oil production to its portfolio.

- Japan’s leading gas importer Tokyo Gas (TYO:9531) is reportedly in talks with US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) to buy 1 million tonnes of LNG per year from the Calcasieu Pass 2 facility, starting from 2028.


Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Russia-Ukraine has been dominating oil headlines recently, even if President Trump’s involvement has notably declined over the past week as Kyiv’s European allies discuss security guarantees with their US counterparts. Drone strikes on Russian refineries have had minimal impact on oil prices, with ICE Brent futures correcting back to $68 per barrel.

Putin Wants US Majors Back. Russian and American officials have reportedly discussed the return of US oil majors to Russia as part of a wider post-Ukraine diplomatic arrangement, with Moscow offering ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) to re-enter Sakhalin I and sell equipment to the Arctic LNG 2 plant.

Donald Trump Demands Chinese Magnets. Further escalating of the US-China trade war, Donald Trump stated that China ought to provide the United States magnets as soon as possible, hinting at inadequate rare earth exports lately, absent which the White House will slap a 200% tariff on Beijing.

Iran's Crude Output Roars Back to Peak Levels. According to Iran’s national oil company NIOC, the country’s oil production soared to the highest level since May 2018, reaching 3.24 million b/d in July, mostly driven by the West Karun and Arvandan projects in the western province of Khuzestan.

Trump Keeps on Burying Wind Companies. The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) issued a work-stop order for the $1.5 billion Revolution Wind project offshore Rhode Island, with shares of Danish wind developer Orsted (CPH:ORSTED) plunging by 17% on Monday.

China’s Oil Giant Sells Off Bankrupt Refineries. Chinese state oil company Sinochem agreed to divest two bankrupt refineries (Zhenghe and Huaxing) in Shandong province – legacy of its 2021 merger with ChemChina – to regional refiners, alongside a 26-million-barrel quota for the rest of 2025.

Iron Ore Prices Jump on Mine Closure. Iron ore futures traded at China’s key Dalian exchange jumped to $110 per metric tonne this week after Australian mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) was forced to suspend all mining activities at its SimFer mine in Guinea, due to a contractor’s death.

Pakistan Asks for LNG Supply Deferrals. The government of Pakistan is seeking to delay delivery of its contracted liquefied natural gas cargoes from Qatar, citing weak domestic demand and rising import costs, having so far imported only 4.6 million tonnes in 2025 to date, down 14% year-on-year.

Libya Courts US Oil Majors. Seeking to ramp up production capacity to 2 million b/d by 2028, Libya’s state-run National Oil Corporation (NOC) said it would soon host a Libya-US Energy forum to help clinch new exploration deals, just as Tripoli invited ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) back to the country.

Elliott Emerges as Top Contender for Citgo. The distressed assets of US refiner Citgo Petroleum might be up for grabs for activist investor Elliott Investment Management after a Delaware court officer said its bid was the best on offer, giving three days to competing Gold Reserve to match.

Refinery Strikes Spur Russian Oil Surge. Russia has increased its crude export plan this month by 200,000 b/d, reacting to widespread downstream damage as Ukrainian drones continue to target the country’s refineries, with markets fearing a flooding of markets with September loadings.

Rare Earth Prices Shoot Through the Roof. Prices of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) soared to their highest since March 2023, up 40% month-on-month at $88 per kg, as US miner MP Materials (NYSE:MP) halted raw material exports to magnet producers in China, selling output domestically.

Canada Courts Japanese Refiners. Authorities in Canada’s main oil-producing province of Alberta are mulling ways to invest in Japan’s refining sector as oil sands producers want to market their heavy bituminous crude in the Asian country, proposing to jointly construct a coking unit.

BP’s Massive Outage Rocks Midwest. The one-week outage of the 440,000 b/d Whiting refinery operated by UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has lifted gasoline prices across main PADD 2 states by $0.27 per gallon from a week ago, further pressuring Midwest gasoline stocks below the 5-year range.

There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions on Monday, but one of the largest Chinese stocks delivered a reaction that caught our attention. China is printing fresh multi-year highs, and most investors couldn’t care less. U.S. megacaps continue to dominate the conversation while these stocks have been left for dead, dismissed as uninvestable. But markets don’t stay hated forever... Cycles turn when nobody expects them to. One of the biggest tells came Monday morning when PDD Holdings $PDD reported a double beat and rallied 0.9%. Revenues topped forecasts by a sliver, while earnings per share beat by over 40%. In other words, this wasn’t a miss or a disappointment - it was a clean double beat. Yet, the stock barely moved, finishing the day higher by less than 1%. That kind of muted reaction is worth paying attention to. It was an incredible report, yet the stock barely budged. That kind of muted reaction tells us investors are still sleeping on PDD - and that’s when the biggest moves tend to begin. When the fundamentals keep improving but the crowd still isn’t buying in, it usually sets the stage for much larger moves once sentiment turns. The backdrop is shifting in their favor. Look no further than the China Technology ETF $CQQQ:

​

This is where the story really comes together. The Nasdaq 100 of China is decisively resolving a textbook multi-year bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern. This is the kind of setup that marks the beginning of brand-new primary uptrends, the ones that often last years. This is where serious capital goes when investors want exposure to Chinese tech. In bull markets, CQQQ becomes the vehicle of choice with its high-beta components. Sitting near the top of the portfolio is PDD. This means that if the China Technology ETF continues to climb, there is a built-in tailwind for the largest holdings. ETF flows push money straight into the stock, whether investors like it or not. Right now, it's pretty clear that investors don't like PDD Holdings:

​

Take a look at the five biggest names in China. These stocks are dirt cheap, and they make US megacaps look bloated by comparison. For example, Microsoft $MSFT is trading for a forward earnings multiple of 28x, and the analyst consensus estimate is calling for them to grow earnings by 18% over the next year. Meanwhile, Alibaba $BABA sells for 12x forward earnings, and it's expected to grow earnings by 19% over the next year. In other words, you're getting the same amount of earnings growth for less than half the price. China has bargains that you won't find in the United States. Despite growing faster than most of its peers, PDD is the only one of the top five Chinese stocks with a negative return over the past year, down 12% while BABA is up 50%. That disconnect won’t last forever. Attractive valuations don’t give us a buy signal on their own. We still need the technicals to confirm, but we expect this to happen soon. Here's the setup for PDD:

​

PDD Holdings bottomed in early 2022, well before most Chinese stocks. Over the next 2 years, it rallied nearly 600% in a relentless uptrend. Since then, it has been grinding sideways, carving out a textbook base-on-base pattern. Buyers are quietly soaking up overhead supply while the stock builds energy for its next leg higher. We're looking for a breakout above 155 to confirm that a new leg higher is underway in PDD. A breakout would likely carry prices to fresh all-time highs. The stock is cheap, hated, and ignored. But it’s also growing faster than most of its large-cap Chinese peers. The crowd still thinks China is uninvestable. The market is telling a different story, and PDD is right at the center of it. Ignore this at your own risk.

I've noticed over the years that people love to slap labels on me depending on where we are in the market cycle.

In bull markets, when stocks are trending higher, I'm often called a permabull - that's short for "permanent bull."

It's attached to investors and/or analysts who are seen as permanently optimistic, always expecting higher prices no matter what the evidence shows.

In reality, those folks usually end up as bag-holders when the inevitable drawdowns come.

On the flip side, during bear markets, I suddenly become a permabear - that's short for "permanent bear."

This one's stuck on people who are permanently pessimistic, always convinced stocks are going lower, regardless of the data in front of them.

The irony, of course, is that I'm neither permanent bull nor permanent bear.

I don't marry a bias. I follow the data, the price action, and the trends.

That's the job.

My Permabear Days​

Back in late 2007, heading into 2008, I was branded the permabear of the office.

Colleagues would literally shut their doors when I walked by because they didn't want to hear my "gloom and doom."

The truth is I wasn't being a permabear at all. I was simply following the trend.

The irony? They were being permabulls. They just couldn't see it.

The same thing happened in 2015. I was convinced we were entering a deeply bearish period, and I said so every day. Naturally, the permabear label came out again.

Fast-forward to 2021 and 2022. When most investors thought we were in a raging bull market, I kept pointing out the opposite.

Once again, people didn't like it. And, once again, I got slapped with the permabear tag.

The lesson is simple: When markets are falling and investors don't want to face it, their coping mechanism is to dismiss anyone who disagrees with them and throw labels around.

It's easier for them to call someone a permabear than to confront the reality of the trend.

My Permabull Days​

I remember vividly in late 2016 and into 2017 being labeled a permabull.

Why? Because I wasn't foaming at the mouth like half the country after Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton.

At the time, I was living in Northern California - ground zero for political outrage. People were raising cash, dumping stocks, and acting like the market was about to collapse.

And me? Apparently, I was just a "permabull who couldn't see the crash coming."

Funny thing is, 2017 ended up being one of the best years ever for U.S. stocks - and the least volatile year in American history. Turns out I wasn't a permabull at all. Those folks were just angry.

The same thing happened again in late 2022. Economists and Wall Street analysts were out in force, warning of an "imminent recession." Everyone bought into the "doom" narrative.

Meanwhile, I was screaming from the rooftops to buy stocks aggressively. Naturally, the newcomers decided that made me a permabull.

But, just like in 2017, I wasn't being permanently bullish. I was simply following the trends.

That's the job. That's what we do.

Fast-Forward To Today​

These days, I get labeled a permabull pretty regularly - lumped in with analysts who are actually permanently bullish no matter what.

But here's the thing: Anyone calling me a permabull is clearly new to my work. If they only knew how many times I've been accused of being a permabear over the years, their heads would explode!

This is classic behavior from the uninformed.

During healthy bull markets, people don't want to admit they missed it, so they cope by calling anyone who's stayed long a permabull.

But I don't play that game. When the offense is on the field, I call offensive plays. That's all I'm doing now. And it's been making a lot of money.

The loudest critics tend to fall into two camps:

• Those who missed the rally and are bitterly hoping it falls apart.
• Those who never had any capital to put to work in the first place, so staying angry is easier than admitting they're not even in the game.

Either way, that's not who you want to be. Don't be like those folks.

Trend Following​

Asset prices trend. That's why Technical Analysis works, because as Technicians we spend a lot of our time looking for trends.

The labels people throw my way - "permabull" in bull markets, "permabear" in bear markets - aren't really about me.

It reflects where we are in the cycle and how uncomfortable it makes others feel.

Funny thing, though: Nobody ever calls me a permabear when stocks are ripping higher.

And I've never been called a permabull when the market's falling apart.

That tells you everything you need to know.

I'm not here to be perma-anything. I'm here to follow the trends.

And right now? The trend is still up.



*Note

Short term take a look at the Jackson Hole chart posted a couple of days ago.



jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

The president and the Fed have been on a collision course for months. At 8:02pm ET last night, the crash took place, as Trump said he was firing Cook for alleged false claims in her mortgage applications four years ago. Why it matters: Cook says she will fight what she and her lawyers characterize as an illegal attempt to fire her, setting up a legal battle royale over who is really in charge of the world's most important central bank. Is it the governors appointed to lengthy, staggered terms meant to assure a measure of political independence, or is it any president willing to cast aside rules and norms established over more than a century? Even though it only concerns an attempt to fire one governor out of seven, for believers in central bank independence, the litigation that results from this is for all the marbles. Between the lines: If the president can fire Cook for the allegations involving some old mortgage applications that she has thus far had no legal recourse to address, he can fire pretty much anyone. It could, wrote Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha and Marco Casiraghi, establish a precedent that the president "has substantial discretion to determine what meets the 'for cause' standard for removal in the future." If Trump succeeds, it will smooth the path for him to install a majority of appointees atop the Fed board sooner rather than later. A majority on the board could, in turn, seek to replace presidents of Federal Reserve banks and cast aside some of the guardrails meant to keep those appointments insulated from politics. State of play: As Cook's legal team and the Fed's in-house lawyers grapple with the issues involved, the question of what comes next is messy. For example, consider a question we don't know the answer to as this newsletter is sent: Is Cook currently a Fed governor? Does she have access to her office and email account? If there were a Fed policy meeting today, would she be in it? We asked a Fed spokesperson about Cook's status both last night and this morning and have not yet received an answer. Trump ally James Fishback said on X last night that "if [Fed chair] Jerome Powell allows Lisa Cook in the building" after Trump's firing, "he's complicit." What's next: Cook is likely to seek a stay on Trump's firing from the courts, but how the court may rule on whether she can remain in office while the issue is litigated is unknown. Of note: The Fed's next policy meeting starts three weeks from today. It appears likely to cut interest rates — though a mere quarter-point, not to the radically lower borrowing costs Trump seeks.

View attachment 206937 Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals The United States seems to be speedrunning toward the kind of economic governance seen in countries like Argentina and Turkey, with central banks more directly under the thumb of political leadership. Financial markets appear mostly unperturbed. The S&P 500 was flat as of 11am ET. Yes, but: There's a little more evidence that bond markets see a potential shift in how the Fed will set policy. The yield curve steepened, which would make sense if you believe the Fed will cut rates more aggressively in the near term but tolerate higher inflation in the long run. That said, the moves were modest. By the numbers: The two-year Treasury yield, sensitive to the near-term Fed policy decisions, was down 0.04 percentage point this morning. The 30-year Treasury was up 0.04 point. While those swings aren't massive and long-term borrowing costs remain below 5%, they are consistent with a world in which the central bank is a little more reactive to political imperatives. Of note: The muted moves may reflect market belief that Cook will prevail in her battle to stay on the board — a legal result that would harden the Fed's independence safeguard. On Polymarket this morning, betting contracts only put 34% odds on Cook being out as a Fed governor by the end of the year.

Seoul Mates in Energy: U.S. Powers Up South Korea

View attachment 206938

- The official visit of South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung to the US marked one of the highlights of Trump’s tariff deals as the two sides formally upheld South Korea’s $100 billion commitment to buy US-origin energy over the next four years.

- South Korea is already the largest buyer of US crude in Asia, ramping up imports every year since 2020 and reaching 460-470 kbd currently – such a pace of imports would equate to $12-14 billion per year, or half the promised commitment.

- South Korea’s imports of US LNG peaked in 2021 at 8.9 million tonnes and have been on a declining trend since, as the country’s importers prefer shorter-haul options from Australia and Qatar.

- Similarly, 2018 marked the peak of coal shipments from the United States to Korea at 3.7 million tonnes, dropping to a mere 1.4 million tonnes last year and staging a gradual recovery since.

Market Movers

- Canada’s leading oil producer Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) agreed to buy oil sands peer MEG Energy (TSE:MEG) for $5.7 billion in a cash and stock deal, sending Cenovus’ stock up almost 8% on Friday.

- Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) delayed development drilling at the UK’s largest untapped oil field Rosebank to Q1 2026 after the UK government demanded additional emissions documentation.

- US upstream firm Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY) agreed to purchase peer shale producer Vital Energy (NYSE:VTLE) in an all-stock deal worth $3.1 billion, adding some 70,000 b/d of oil production to its portfolio.

- Japan’s leading gas importer Tokyo Gas (TYO:9531) is reportedly in talks with US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) to buy 1 million tonnes of LNG per year from the Calcasieu Pass 2 facility, starting from 2028.


Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Russia-Ukraine has been dominating oil headlines recently, even if President Trump’s involvement has notably declined over the past week as Kyiv’s European allies discuss security guarantees with their US counterparts. Drone strikes on Russian refineries have had minimal impact on oil prices, with ICE Brent futures correcting back to $68 per barrel.

Putin Wants US Majors Back. Russian and American officials have reportedly discussed the return of US oil majors to Russia as part of a wider post-Ukraine diplomatic arrangement, with Moscow offering ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) to re-enter Sakhalin I and sell equipment to the Arctic LNG 2 plant.

Donald Trump Demands Chinese Magnets. Further escalating of the US-China trade war, Donald Trump stated that China ought to provide the United States magnets as soon as possible, hinting at inadequate rare earth exports lately, absent which the White House will slap a 200% tariff on Beijing.

Iran's Crude Output Roars Back to Peak Levels. According to Iran’s national oil company NIOC, the country’s oil production soared to the highest level since May 2018, reaching 3.24 million b/d in July, mostly driven by the West Karun and Arvandan projects in the western province of Khuzestan.

Trump Keeps on Burying Wind Companies. The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) issued a work-stop order for the $1.5 billion Revolution Wind project offshore Rhode Island, with shares of Danish wind developer Orsted (CPH:ORSTED) plunging by 17% on Monday.

China’s Oil Giant Sells Off Bankrupt Refineries. Chinese state oil company Sinochem agreed to divest two bankrupt refineries (Zhenghe and Huaxing) in Shandong province – legacy of its 2021 merger with ChemChina – to regional refiners, alongside a 26-million-barrel quota for the rest of 2025.

Iron Ore Prices Jump on Mine Closure. Iron ore futures traded at China’s key Dalian exchange jumped to $110 per metric tonne this week after Australian mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) was forced to suspend all mining activities at its SimFer mine in Guinea, due to a contractor’s death.

Pakistan Asks for LNG Supply Deferrals. The government of Pakistan is seeking to delay delivery of its contracted liquefied natural gas cargoes from Qatar, citing weak domestic demand and rising import costs, having so far imported only 4.6 million tonnes in 2025 to date, down 14% year-on-year.

Libya Courts US Oil Majors. Seeking to ramp up production capacity to 2 million b/d by 2028, Libya’s state-run National Oil Corporation (NOC) said it would soon host a Libya-US Energy forum to help clinch new exploration deals, just as Tripoli invited ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) back to the country.

Elliott Emerges as Top Contender for Citgo. The distressed assets of US refiner Citgo Petroleum might be up for grabs for activist investor Elliott Investment Management after a Delaware court officer said its bid was the best on offer, giving three days to competing Gold Reserve to match.

Refinery Strikes Spur Russian Oil Surge. Russia has increased its crude export plan this month by 200,000 b/d, reacting to widespread downstream damage as Ukrainian drones continue to target the country’s refineries, with markets fearing a flooding of markets with September loadings.

Rare Earth Prices Shoot Through the Roof. Prices of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) soared to their highest since March 2023, up 40% month-on-month at $88 per kg, as US miner MP Materials (NYSE:MP) halted raw material exports to magnet producers in China, selling output domestically.

Canada Courts Japanese Refiners. Authorities in Canada’s main oil-producing province of Alberta are mulling ways to invest in Japan’s refining sector as oil sands producers want to market their heavy bituminous crude in the Asian country, proposing to jointly construct a coking unit.

BP’s Massive Outage Rocks Midwest. The one-week outage of the 440,000 b/d Whiting refinery operated by UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has lifted gasoline prices across main PADD 2 states by $0.27 per gallon from a week ago, further pressuring Midwest gasoline stocks below the 5-year range.

​

​ There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions on Monday, but one of the largest Chinese stocks delivered a reaction that caught our attention. China is printing fresh multi-year highs, and most investors couldn’t care less. U.S. megacaps continue to dominate the conversation while these stocks have been left for dead, dismissed as uninvestable. But markets don’t stay hated forever... Cycles turn when nobody expects them to. One of the biggest tells came Monday morning when PDD Holdings $PDD reported a double beat and rallied 0.9%. Revenues topped forecasts by a sliver, while earnings per share beat by over 40%. In other words, this wasn’t a miss or a disappointment - it was a clean double beat. Yet, the stock barely moved, finishing the day higher by less than 1%. That kind of muted reaction is worth paying attention to. It was an incredible report, yet the stock barely budged. That kind of muted reaction tells us investors are still sleeping on PDD - and that’s when the biggest moves tend to begin. When the fundamentals keep improving but the crowd still isn’t buying in, it usually sets the stage for much larger moves once sentiment turns. The backdrop is shifting in their favor. Look no further than the China Technology ETF $CQQQ:

​

​ View attachment 206939​

​

​ This is where the story really comes together. The Nasdaq 100 of China is decisively resolving a textbook multi-year bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern. This is the kind of setup that marks the beginning of brand-new primary uptrends, the ones that often last years. This is where serious capital goes when investors want exposure to Chinese tech. In bull markets, CQQQ becomes the vehicle of choice with its high-beta components. Sitting near the top of the portfolio is PDD. This means that if the China Technology ETF continues to climb, there is a built-in tailwind for the largest holdings. ETF flows push money straight into the stock, whether investors like it or not. Right now, it's pretty clear that investors don't like PDD Holdings:

​

​ View attachment 206940​

​

​ Take a look at the five biggest names in China. These stocks are dirt cheap, and they make US megacaps look bloated by comparison. For example, Microsoft $MSFT is trading for a forward earnings multiple of 28x, and the analyst consensus estimate is calling for them to grow earnings by 18% over the next year. Meanwhile, Alibaba $BABA sells for 12x forward earnings, and it's expected to grow earnings by 19% over the next year. In other words, you're getting the same amount of earnings growth for less than half the price. China has bargains that you won't find in the United States. Despite growing faster than most of its peers, PDD is the only one of the top five Chinese stocks with a negative return over the past year, down 12% while BABA is up 50%. That disconnect won’t last forever. Attractive valuations don’t give us a buy signal on their own. We still need the technicals to confirm, but we expect this to happen soon. Here's the setup for PDD:

​

​ View attachment 206941​

​

​ PDD Holdings bottomed in early 2022, well before most Chinese stocks. Over the next 2 years, it rallied nearly 600% in a relentless uptrend. Since then, it has been grinding sideways, carving out a textbook base-on-base pattern. Buyers are quietly soaking up overhead supply while the stock builds energy for its next leg higher. We're looking for a breakout above 155 to confirm that a new leg higher is underway in PDD. A breakout would likely carry prices to fresh all-time highs. The stock is cheap, hated, and ignored. But it’s also growing faster than most of its large-cap Chinese peers. The crowd still thinks China is uninvestable. The market is telling a different story, and PDD is right at the center of it. Ignore this at your own risk.

I've noticed over the years that people love to slap labels on me depending on where we are in the market cycle.

In bull markets, when stocks are trending higher, I'm often called a permabull - that's short for "permanent bull."

It's attached to investors and/or analysts who are seen as permanently optimistic, always expecting higher prices no matter what the evidence shows.

In reality, those folks usually end up as bag-holders when the inevitable drawdowns come.

On the flip side, during bear markets, I suddenly become a permabear - that's short for "permanent bear."

This one's stuck on people who are permanently pessimistic, always convinced stocks are going lower, regardless of the data in front of them.

The irony, of course, is that I'm neither permanent bull nor permanent bear.

I don't marry a bias. I follow the data, the price action, and the trends.

That's the job.

My Permabear Days​

Back in late 2007, heading into 2008, I was branded the permabear of the office.

Colleagues would literally shut their doors when I walked by because they didn't want to hear my "gloom and doom."

The truth is I wasn't being a permabear at all. I was simply following the trend.

The irony? They were being permabulls. They just couldn't see it.

The same thing happened in 2015. I was convinced we were entering a deeply bearish period, and I said so every day. Naturally, the permabear label came out again.

Fast-forward to 2021 and 2022. When most investors thought we were in a raging bull market, I kept pointing out the opposite.

Once again, people didn't like it. And, once again, I got slapped with the permabear tag.

The lesson is simple: When markets are falling and investors don't want to face it, their coping mechanism is to dismiss anyone who disagrees with them and throw labels around.

It's easier for them to call someone a permabear than to confront the reality of the trend.

My Permabull Days​

I remember vividly in late 2016 and into 2017 being labeled a permabull.

Why? Because I wasn't foaming at the mouth like half the country after Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton.

At the time, I was living in Northern California - ground zero for political outrage. People were raising cash, dumping stocks, and acting like the market was about to collapse.

And me? Apparently, I was just a "permabull who couldn't see the crash coming."

Funny thing is, 2017 ended up being one of the best years ever for U.S. stocks - and the least volatile year in American history. Turns out I wasn't a permabull at all. Those folks were just angry.

The same thing happened again in late 2022. Economists and Wall Street analysts were out in force, warning of an "imminent recession." Everyone bought into the "doom" narrative.

Meanwhile, I was screaming from the rooftops to buy stocks aggressively. Naturally, the newcomers decided that made me a permabull.

But, just like in 2017, I wasn't being permanently bullish. I was simply following the trends.

That's the job. That's what we do.

Fast-Forward To Today​

These days, I get labeled a permabull pretty regularly - lumped in with analysts who are actually permanently bullish no matter what.

But here's the thing: Anyone calling me a permabull is clearly new to my work. If they only knew how many times I've been accused of being a permabear over the years, their heads would explode!

This is classic behavior from the uninformed.

During healthy bull markets, people don't want to admit they missed it, so they cope by calling anyone who's stayed long a permabull.

But I don't play that game. When the offense is on the field, I call offensive plays. That's all I'm doing now. And it's been making a lot of money.

The loudest critics tend to fall into two camps:

• Those who missed the rally and are bitterly hoping it falls apart.
• Those who never had any capital to put to work in the first place, so staying angry is easier than admitting they're not even in the game.

Either way, that's not who you want to be. Don't be like those folks.

Trend Following​

Asset prices trend. That's why Technical Analysis works, because as Technicians we spend a lot of our time looking for trends.

The labels people throw my way - "permabull" in bull markets, "permabear" in bear markets - aren't really about me.

It reflects where we are in the cycle and how uncomfortable it makes others feel.

Funny thing, though: Nobody ever calls me a permabear when stocks are ripping higher.

And I've never been called a permabull when the market's falling apart.

That tells you everything you need to know.

I'm not here to be perma-anything. I'm here to follow the trends.

And right now? The trend is still up.



*Note

Short term take a look at the Jackson Hole chart posted a couple of days ago.



jog on
duc

For the Aussie side, I noticed about the US-korea new BFF and new agreement to increase US imports
"
South Korea’s imports of US LNG peaked in 2021 at 8.9 million tonnes and have been on a declining trend since, as the country’s importers prefer shorter-haul options from Australia and Qatar.

- Similarly, 2018 marked the peak of coal shipments from the United States to Korea at 3.7 million tonnes, dropping to a mere 1.4 million tonnes last year and staging a gradual recovery since."
My bold as this new relationship will be made on our back: South Korea is going to reduce purchase of our gas and coal.
This has a direct impact on our ASX companies, and economy as South Korea is one of our few non China export markets

 

[ducati916]

Cook could file a suit over her firing as early as today in a case that could ultimately decide the limits of a president's control of the Fed. Why it matters: While it would likely take months to be fully resolved, near-term decisions on the horizon will hold major consequences for America's tradition of central bank independence. Context: The courts will likely be asked to rule on whether Cook can continue to serve — and vote on interest rate policy at the September policy meeting — as the case plays out. That ruling would set a significant precedent. It is already a delicate time for a Fed that is trying to balance elevated inflation and weaker hiring. Now the political guardrails around the central bank are also being redrawn in real time. What to watch: Cook's lawsuit is expected to seek a preliminary injunction that asks the court to permit her to stay in the post while the courts examine the broader case. Whichever side loses on that ruling — Cook or the Trump administration — is likely to file an emergency appeal, Peter Conti-Brown, a professor of financial regulation at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, wrote this morning. One can imagine the messiness — and possible financial market confusion — of Cook having to vacate the post and Trump naming a replacement, only for Cook to be reinstated later if a court ultimately decides Trump could not fire Cook. For that reason, Conti-Brown argued, the resolution of the injunction request even on an emergency basis could determine the future of the central bank's independence. What they're saying: "The litigation may continue winding its way through the courts, but the entire political moment will shift dramatically during that pendency," Conti-Brown wrote. "If Cook wins, she stays in place and we achieve some semblance of stability. If she loses, there will be no restoration of status quo ante," he added. "That's the end of Fed independence as it has been constructed and reconstructed over 112 years. " The big picture: The Fed had been quiet in the aftermath of Trump's firing Cook on Monday. That changed yesterday afternoon. A spokesperson said the Fed would "abide by any court decision" that determines if Cook could continue to serve. The statement also defended the structure of the Fed's Board of Governors: "Long tenures and removal protections for governors serve as a vital safeguard, ensuring that monetary policy decisions are based on data, economic analysis, and the long-term interests of the American people." Between the lines: Cook's suit will address the question of what counts as sufficient "cause" for the Trump administration to remove a Fed official. The White House says the mortgage fraud accusations lodged by housing regulator Bill Pulte give Trump legal cover to fire Cook. There have been no formal charges brought against Cook, and she has not yet offered a detailed response to the substance of the accusations, first lodged on social media just one week ago today. The other side: "If it were me ... I would either deny it because it was not true, or I would go on leave until people resolve that," top White House economist Kevin Hassett told reporters this morning. "The fact that she is not doing that suggests that she is partisan and is trying to make a partisan stance, which is contrary to the independence of the Fed," Hassett added.

If the White House is successful in removing Cook and securing Senate confirmation of Miran and a Cook replacement, a majority of the Fed board officials will have been appointed by Trump — a fact touted by the president yesterday.

What they're saying: Trump said he would "have a majority very shortly" on the Fed board. "Once we have a majority, housing is going to swing, and it's going to be great," Trump said during a Cabinet meeting.

• "People are paying too high an interest rate. That's the only problem with us. We have to get the rates down a little bit," he added.
• Presidents usually end up with a majority of their appointees on the Fed board, but not usually this early into a term — or under such politically charged circumstances.

State of play: Even assuming chair Jerome Powell remains in that role through the end of his term in May (he could also remain in his spot as a governor through 2028), Trump appointees — Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Miran, and Cook's replacement — would constitute a majority of the seven-member board in this scenario.

• It would give them the ability to block the reappointments of regional Fed governors, the central bank's budget, and more.
• It would also give them the opportunity to push for much steeper interest rate cuts than Fed officials have been contemplating.

Yes, but: An open question is how much Waller and Bowman would go along with efforts by new Trump appointees to radically remake the Fed.

• Waller, in particular, is an institutionalist who came up as an economist at the St. Louis Fed. He has often spoken of the importance of central bank independence.

Of note: Traditionally, Fed governors take pride in putting the circumstances of their appointment aside once they take office, viewing themselves as independent decision-makers rather than taking direction from the president who appointed them.

There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions on Tuesday, but North of the border, Canada's banking giants are stealing our attention. From Wall Street to Frankfurt to Hong Kong, financial stocks are climbing higher together. Now, the Canadian giants - the Big 5 - are joining in, and they’re doing so in spectacular fashion. The Royal Bank of Canada $RY, Toronto-Dominion $TD, Bank of Montreal $BMO, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce $CM, and Bank of Nova Scotia $BNS form the backbone of the Canadian financial system. Together, they represent nearly a third of the country’s stock market in terms of market capitalization. When they move in concert, it’s not just a story about individual earnings reports - it’s a vote of confidence for Canadian equities by global investors. We think the party hasn't even started yet:

​

Our equal-weighted basket of the Big 5 has spent years carving out a textbook accumulation pattern. Now, that range is on the verge of resolving higher, with the index pressing against its former highs and threatening to break out to new records. A breakout from here would mark the beginning of a brand-new primary uptrend for the group. Here's the fundamental backdrop for these stocks:

​

The strength isn’t just technical. The fundamentals of the group are improving in tandem. Every one of the Big 5 trades above book value, with price-to-book ratios ranging between 1.4 and 2.2. That premium tells us investors are confident in the banks’ ability to compound capital. Return on equity (ROE) - the standard measure of profitability for financial institutions - is strongest at the Royal Bank of Canada (the largest one) and Toronto-Dominion, both of which have an ROE of 14%. Yet the biggest surprise has come from the Bank of Montreal. With a mid-pack ROE of 10% and one of the cheapest valuations at just 1.5 times book, BMO has outpaced its peers with a 38% gain over the past year. We also love how BMO's beat streak (consecutive positive earnings reactions) is confirming its leadership. Meanwhile, the Royal Bank of Canada, with a $194B market capitalization, is the slowest mover of the group - but even it has gained a respectable 21% over the past year. In other words, the tide is lifting every ship. Tuesday was a day for the gap-n-go:

​

Tuesday’s earnings reactions underscored the shift in sentiment for these stocks. Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia both reported results before the opening bell, and the response couldn't have been more bullish. Shares of both banks surged out of multi-week consolidations, gapping higher at the open and closing at the top of their daily ranges. In technical terms, these were textbook gap-and-go moves, one of our favorite bullish candlestick patterns. Bank of Montreal posted more than 25% year-over-year growth in net income, a remarkable showing for a bank of its size. Investors loved the report, sending shares to new 52-week highs. Bank of Nova Scotia’s double beat was met with the same enthusiasm. The earnings reactions for BMO and BNS were each the best since 2020. Overall, it couldn't have gone better for these stocks. We think RY is set up to have a similar earnings reaction on Wednesday:

​

The Royal Bank of Canada, the largest lender in the country and one of the world's most important financial institutions, is next in line. It reports Wednesday morning, with consensus estimates calling for $11.59B in revenue and earnings of $2.39 per share. The stock has already broken to new all-time highs, surging out of a massive base that had been developing since 2021. Price action leading up to earnings could not be more bullish. Traders are effectively front-running the results, betting that the fundamentals will justify the breakout. Later in the week, we'll hear from CM:

​

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce follows on Thursday. Unlike Royal Bank, its stock has been coiling tightly after a powerful advance earlier this year. Earnings estimates sit at $5.09B in revenue and $1.45 in EPS. The setup suggests a significant move is coming, and the report will likely serve as the catalyst. If the reaction is positive, the breakout would mark a continuation of the bank’s new surge to all-time highs. We'll also hear from TD on Thursday:

​

Toronto-Dominion rounds out the reporting week for the Big 5. After rallying 50% from the low late last year, the stock has carved out a textbook continuation pattern. The setup looks like a coiled spring, waiting for a spark. Analysts are forecasting $13.74B in revenue and earnings of $2.06 per share. A strong report could provide the fuel to propel the stock to fresh multi-year highs. The story here is not just about earnings beats and positive reactions... It’s about structural breakouts across the Canadian banking sector - moves that align with the global rally in financials. We're seeing the strongest earnings reactions in half a decade, and valuations are being repriced higher. When the largest, most systemically important banks in a country all break out together, the signal is hard to ignore. Canada’s financials are sending a message that echoes across borders that the bull market in global banks is alive and well. Don’t fight this trend.

Offense is on the field in every way. The Dow just hit new all-time highs for the first time in 2025. Micro-Caps are breaking out to their highest levels in more than three years. More and more charts are resolving higher, sector participation is broadening, and leadership is coming from exactly where you’d expect in a healthy bull market. One of the best ways to confirm this risk-on environment is by looking at Consumer Discretionary versus Consumer Staples. Discretionary stocks include cars, retailers, and homebuilders — the kinds of things people buy when they feel confident. The risk-on stuff. Staples, on the other hand, are the everyday essentials like food, toothpaste, and cigarettes that people buy no matter what. Risk-off things. We like to view this relationship using the equally weighted ETFs, just to avoid any single big stock from skewing the picture.

​

What we’re seeing is a major secular breakout in this trend. The chart is screaming risk-on right now. New highs in this ratio means investors are playing offense and embracing risk. It’s that simple. As long as this breakout sticks, the bull market is in good shape and we want to press the gas on risk assets. We just rolled out the latest Minor Leaguers Report. This scan highlights small- and mid-cap stocks ($1B–$4B market cap) with big upside potential—screened for quality, ranked by strength, and primed for big moves. Some could 5x–10x on their way to large-cap status. Take a look at this week’s table:

​

Notice how many regional banks are showing up near the top. That kind of leadership tells us where money is starting to flow.

• Never forget Financials make the world go 'round.
• That's not opinion - that's experience.
• Regional bank rotation is what to watch right now.

Financials aren't just another sector. They're thebackbone of bull markets.

Sure, Technology carries the heaviest weight in the S&P 500. And, yes, Industrials historically show the highest correlation with the index.

Those are important groups with plenty of leadership names. No argument there.

But I'm old school. I've seen enough cycles to know: We don't get sustained bull markets without Financials.

I had a front-row seat during the mess of 2007-09, when the banks nearly took the whole system down.

That experience cemented for me just how critical this group is - not just in the U.S., but globally.

In fact, outside the U.S., Financials are the stock market.

Most countries don't have an Apple (AAPL), a Microsoft (MSFT), or an Nvidia (NVDA) dominating their indexes. They have banks.

Look at the MSCI All Country World Index ex-U.S. - Financials make up almost 25% of the entire global index.

For perspective, Industrials and Technology sit closer to 14% each.

That's why, when I analyze the world's markets, I always start with Financials.

They're the tell. They lead. They matter.

The Global Rotation Into Financials​

The S&P 500 Financials Index Fund (XLF) just closed at fresh all-time highs again. No shock there. It's been carving out new records on repeat ever since breaking out last year.

But this isn't just a U.S. story.

Across the pond, the European Financials ETF (EUFN) has been ripping higher too, logging all-time highs all year long.

And in Asia?

The titans of Japan - Mitsubishi UFJ (MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui (SMFG), and Mizuho Financial (MFG) - are clocking in at levels they haven't seen in decades.

This is no one-off. It's a full-blown, global rotation into the largest financial institutions on the planet.

When banks everywhere are breaking out together, it's not just noise. It's the kind of synchronized leadership that fuels powerful bull markets.

Financials are firing on all cylinders worldwide.

Ignore that at your own risk.

Rotation Into Smaller Banks​

The smaller banks still haven't really joined the party.

One of the quirks of the U.S. financial system is just how many banks we have. There are more than 250 of them in the Russell 2000 Index alone.

Whether that sheer number has weighed on the group is up for debate. To me, it's more of a small-cap story - the big players have been running, while the little guys have been left behind.

That's starting to change.

Take a look at two very diversified indexes, the Regional Banks ETF (KRE), which leans heavily on smaller banks, and the S&P Bank ETF (KBE), an equal-weight basket that inevitably tilts toward the smaller names.

(That's simply because there are so many more of them than the handful of giants such as JPMorgan (JPM)).

This week, KRE hit new six-month highs, while KBE logged fresh year-to-date highs:



That's the kind of rotation we've been waiting for - and if it sticks, it could unlock the next leg higher for the entire Financials space.

Bottom Line: Banks Run The Show​

We don't get bull markets without Financials. Period.

The more bank stocks participating, the stronger and healthier the uptrend.

That's not opinion. That's experience.

I've seen a lot of cycles, and one lesson always sticks: You don't fight strength in Financials. When banks are leading, the trend is your friend.

Yes, Technology has the biggest weight in the indexes. Sure, Industrials have the tightest correlation with the S&P. All true.

But at the end of the day? Financials make the world go 'round.

Never forget it.

Stay sharp,

JC Parets, CMT

Equities have stalled out in the last half of August as a buyer's strike ahead of the seasonally weak month of September takes hold. Below is a look at where equity ETFs and other asset-class ETFs stand within their trading ranges using our Trend Analyzer tool. Notably, gold (GLD) is now solidly in the lead in terms of year-to-date percentage change after Bitcoin (IBIT) has fallen off dramatically in the last week. Of the various asset class ETFs shown, Bitcoin (IBIT) is easily down the most week-over-week with a drop of 4.8%. On the flip side, oil (USO) is up the most with a gain of 3.5%.

​

Looking at the mega-caps, the best performer over the last week has been Tesla (TSLA), which remains the worst performer of the group on a year-to-date basis. Alphabet (GOOGL) is the only other mega-cap in the green over the last week, while the rest of them are down 1%+. So far, Microsoft (MSFT) is the only one that has moved back below its 50-day moving average.

​

One other area of the market worth looking at is the banks and brokerage firms. While Bank of America (BAC) is up the least year-to-date of any of the stocks shown, it's up the most over the last week with a gain of 3.3%. BAC is also now the most overbought stock of the bunch as it trades nearly two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average. On the flipside, Coinbase's (COIN) 4.6% drop over the last week leaves it as the only name in the group that's below its 50-DMA. As a reminder, you can monitor trends across ETFs, sectors, groups, and indices using our Trend Analyzer tool, available to Bespoke members.

​

• The Uranium Miners ETF ($URNM) has closed higher for four straight sessions, gaining +14.5% since Wednesday. It's flirting with fresh YTD highs, closing above $50 for the third time this year.
  
  
• Brandon notes that Uranium could be the next commodity to surge. The ratio ($URNM/$SPY) has established a potential bottom over the past year, and reclaiming its July peak would unlock further outperformance.
  
  
• The other popular Uranium ETF, $URA, is up twice as much as $URNM this year, thanks to its inclusion of $OKLO and a heavier tilt toward $CCJ. However, both funds are outpacing the S&P 500 YTD.
  (YTD Returns: $URA +51%, $URNM: +25%, $SPY+11%.)
  

The Takeaway: Uranium has set the stage for a meaningful move in the coming weeks, with the ratio ($URNM/$SPY) carving a potential bottom and pressing against fresh YTD highs.





Since the launch of ChatGPT, the consensus has been that Microsoft (MSFT) has been one of the AI winners while Alphabet (GOOGL) missed the boat. Some of the criticism towards GOOGL was earned as the company was late in launching a consumer AI product/tool, and then had a clumsy launch once it did. What many investors overlooked, though, was the fact that GOOGL branded itself an ‘AI first’ company way back in April 2016. Now, just because a company calls itself AI-first doesn’t mean it is. After all, anyone can say they’re an NFL-caliber quarterback, but only three dozen or so people are at any one time. In GOOGL’s case, though, missing the boat was hardly an accurate description of the situation.

Even now, nearly three years after the launch of ChatGPT, most investors view MSFT as the winner relative to GOOGL, if for no other reason than its investments in OpenAI that have given it a 49% share of the company’s future profits. Given the overall sentiment, how much do you think MSFT has outperformed GOOGL by since the launch of ChatGPT? The answer is that it hasn't. As shown in the chart below, while MSFT has nearly doubled (+97.9%), GOOGL is now up nearly ten percentage points more with a gain of 107.6% and has just eclipsed MSFT in the back-and-forth race for outperformance.



The chart below shows the performance spread between the two stocks since ChatGPT’s launch. For the most part, GOOGL has been moderately underperforming MSFT, but it hasn’t been consistent. Overall, the average margin of underperformance has been less than 3 percentage points, so it has hardly been a runaway train in favor of MSFT. Even more, the widest the performance spread has grown between the two stocks at any point since ChatGPT’s launch was 43 percentage points in GOOGL’s favor. For MSFT, there hasn’t been a point since ChatGPT’s launch where it outperformed GOOGL by more than 31 percentage points. If GOOGL missed it, what exactly was the boat it missed?







So a swing trade:




Buy $645/$650 vertical expiry 29 Aug. '25
If higher than $647.48 at (or before) expiry $250 per contract

Not previously being much of a volume chap, I'm finding these volume bars a revelation. Old dog, new tricks.


jog on
duc

 

[ShareSuccess]

I like the Idea of a Big run On uranium UUUU Energy fuels has surged Recently which i'm an owner of Compliments of their Takeover of Base Resources in Australia Last Year.

$5.84 at Takeover, Now $11.46 but have been over $12 Recently!....How High is The Question?

And Duc, I have a Question?....Do you Know of the Equiniti Trust Company & why is this Mob So hard to Deal with in regards to access to their Platform?

 

[ducati916]

I like the Idea of a Big run On uranium UUUU Energy fuels has surged Recently which i'm an owner of Compliments of their Takeover of Base Resources in Australia Last Year.

$5.84 at Takeover, Now $11.46 but have been over $12 Recently!....How High is The Question?

And Duc, I have a Question?....Do you Know of the Equiniti Trust Company & why is this Mob So hard to Deal with in regards to access to their Platform?

Sorry never heard of them.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

One bulwark for the Fed's political independence has been its network of 12 reserve banks, each with a complex public-private hybrid structure meant to distribute power nationwide. But ultimately, a determined majority of the Board of Governors in Washington can reshape those reserve banks and their leadership as it wishes. Why it matters: If the Trump administration succeeds at installing a Board of Governors majority in the near future, it would be able to block the reappointment of any or all of the 12 reserve bank presidents early next year. Even after that, legal rulings indicate that the reserve banks' authority is downstream of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors — which translates into the broad ability to oversee hiring, firing, and budgets. State of play: The reserve bank presidents — who vote on a rotating basis on monetary policy and have extensive management responsibilities — are reappointed on a five-year calendar, a juncture at which the Board of Governors must approve each to remain in office. As it happens, that deadline is coming up at the end of February, six months away. Usually, this is an inconsequential, unnoticed event; we can't recall a bank president departing based on the reappointment calendar since Narayana Kocherlakota left the Minneapolis Fed a decade ago. However, if Trump appointees constitute a majority of the Board of Governors by early next year, it could be a ripe opportunity to try to shuffle bank presidents, seeking candidates more in line with the president's desires. If Trump wins his court battle to fire Cook, and the Senate confirms both her replacement and Stephen Miran (Trump's nominee for a vacant seat), Trump appointees would be a majority of the committee (including sitting governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman). The intrigue: There are already some hints that Trump's board appointees have concerns that the reserve banks have been too sympathetic to Democratic priorities, including with research on climate, race, and inequality. Waller and Bowman abstained from the vote to appoint Austan Goolsbee, a former adviser to President Obama, to lead the Chicago Fed in 2023, Bloomberg first reported. The private-sector boards of directors of the banks have added more members from nonprofits and labor unions in recent years, and a Manhattan Institute report found the board members' political giving has shifted to the left. In 2023, 34% of reserve bank board members donated to only left-wing candidates and causes, the report found, while 8% donated only to right-wings equivalents. Those numbers were roughly balanced a decade earlier.

Here are the latest earnings stats from the S&P 500

​

*Click the image to enlarge it After reporting a double, the $23B specialty retailer, Williams-Sonoma $WSM, had a -1.39 reaction score. They posted revenues of $1.84B, versus the expected $1.83B, and earnings per share of $2.00, versus the expected $1.81. The $11B packaged foods stock known for its PB&J and much more, J.M. Smucker $SJM, had a -2.76 reaction score after reporting mixed results. Their report showed revenues of $1.93B, versus the expected $1.90B, and earnings per share of $2.11, versus the expected $2.12. Now let's dive into the fundamentals and technicals

WSM had its 3rd consecutive negative earnings reaction

​

Williams-Sonoma fell 2.9% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:

Total top-line grew by 3.7% year-over-year, with all business segments posting positive comps over the same timeframe. Due to price increases, the gross margin improved by 220 basis points year-over-year. Despite macroeconomic and tariff headwinds, the management team raised its revenue guidance.

This company is at the forefront of Trump's Tariff War, and the market doesn't like it. The stock is being consistently punished for reporting earnings. Additionally, the technicals are confirming the bearish trend in the fundamentals. The price is rolling over and looks poised to retest the 38.2% retracement of the prior uptrend from the April low. Over the short to intermediate term, this is a stock that we want to avoid for now until its previously mentioned issues are resolved. Over longer timeframes, we still love the name - it's one of the best-performing retailers ever. So long as WSM remains below 210, the path of least resistance is sideways to lower for the foreseeable future.

SJM had its 3rd consecutive negative earnings reaction

​

J.M. Smucker fell 4.4% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:

Net sales declined 1% year-over-year, and for the first time since 2022, the company reported negative free cash flow. Sales for the U.S. Coffee segment performed best, growing 15% year-over-year. On the other hand, the Sweet Baked Snacks segment was the worst performer, with a 24% decline in sales and a 54% decline in earnings over the same timeframe. Despite the negative free cash flow this quarter, the management team issued strong positive guidance for that metric as they continue to cut costs.

Like many Consumer Staple stocks, the fundamental and technical trends for this name are deteriorating quickly. The reaction to last quarter's earnings was the worst we've seen this century. When we look back on that moment a year from now, it wouldn't surprise us if that marked the beginning of a much larger drawdown. As you can see, the price has carved out a textbook multi-decade distribution pattern. Now, the bears need to prove themselves and put the finishing touches on the top and mark the beginning of a brand-new primary downtrend. Adding to the negative technical outlook, the sellers firmly control the momentum over every timeframe. So long as SJM holds above 100, the path of least resistance is likely to remain sideways. However, a decisive close below that level would shift the path of least resistance to the downside for the foreseeable future.

While everyone obsesses over the old news around Nvidia’s next earnings report, I’m focused on a new AI story. The big banks are among the most underrated and ignored AI trades in the market today. No one is talking about what’s going on here, yet the charts already seem to have sniffed it out. And it’s not just a US banking story. The largest banks from around the world are all benefiting from AI these days. Alfonso has been pounding the table on European Financials, as they’ve been the leaders, breaking out of a massive base earlier this year and never looking back. And even the Canadian banks have hopped on board with this trend recently. Our Big 5 Canadian Bank Index is on the verge of breaking out. We covered that group in this morning’s Daily Beat report. But, back to the United States. Here’s our Big 6 Bank Index, which is making new all-time highs today:

​

And when you look at the relative trend, the setup is even sweeter. These money-center banks are reversing trend versus the broader market, telling us to expect even more outperformance from them over longer timeframes.

​

And that’s a big deal. The truth is that this whole group was dead money for a very long time. Nothing but opportunity cost. The banking industry has been a tough trade for my entire career. But they aren’t the same battered financial crisis companies of yesterday. These are the mega-cap fintech leaders of the future. That’s right, these old school banks are leading the way, ushering in a new era of innovation and technology adoption for the financial sector. JPMorgan is rolling out its own GPT tool, Bank of America’s AI assistant is handling billions of customer interactions, and Goldman’s even using AI to draft IPO docs. That’s not hype—that’s real cost savings, efficiency gains, and new revenue streams. Just go look at some of the things these guys are doing. And I think the big banks are also going to embark on buying sprees, gobbling up financial industry disrupters in order to fuel even more growth in the future. Bank deregulations should help boost this trend. It’s really the same story as the Magnificent Seven and hyperscalers in recent years. The companies with the deepest pockets are the ones that can invest best in this AI gold rush. They will be the most significant and obvious beneficiaries. US banking is already a “winners-take-most” industry, but it stands to be even more that way in the future. The big boys will get a lot bigger if they win AI. So if you’re looking for an “AI play” beyond the known chipmakers and software giants, don’t sleep on the banks. They’ve got the best data, the most customers, and the regulatory muscle to make AI work at scale—something most companies can only dream of. They also have some of the most bullish technicals in the market to back it all up. So what’s the trade? Simple. Just buy the breakouts in these banks. We’ve been doing it via Breakout Multiplier, and it’s been working. We anticipated the resolution in BAC last week and bought calls. We sold the double on them today and reinvested that capital right back into another one of the big 6 banks.

Energy has been one of the hardest trades of the past two years. Every breakout attempt faded. Every consolidation looked ready to rip — and then rolled over. Traders are frustrated, short interest is at record highs, and sentiment is as bad as it gets. But here’s the thing: some of the best trades don’t come when everything is obvious. They come when no one wants them. Wayne Gretzky said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Trading is the same. You can complain about how hard energy has been to trade, or you can recognize the setup building in front of us and take the probability bet. And right now, the probability bet says energy — and its close cousin, regional banks — are gearing up to move. The Charts That Matter Heating Oil – The Canary in the Coal Mine Heating oil futures ($HO_F) are up 14% YTD, even while crude has been flat to negative. That divergence matters. ​ On the chart, you can see heating oil holding long-term support and grinding higher. Secondary energy products often lead the majors. In other words, heating oil tends to move before crude or broad energy equities. So what’s the message? Demand is alive. This is the “ignored” chart that tells you the energy complex isn’t as dead as the consensus wants you to believe. Energy – $XLE Pressing on New Highs Energy ($XLE) has chewed up traders for months, chopping back and forth with no conviction. But the chart now shows it pressing against 100-day highs. That’s our line in the sand. ​ When $XLE breaks above resistance, it usually attracts flows that reinforce the move. And remember, commodities broadly are sitting in one of the tightest Bollinger Band squeezes in decades. Volatility is at historic lows. If this thing gets going, it won’t stop quickly.

Fat finger trade?

• Another thing everybody's wrong about (add it to the list!)
• You're getting left behind...
• And an introduction to Mr. X - my startup investing guy...

Wanna know another thing everybody's wrong about?

Most investors I talk to think they can't invest in private companies.

Well... shocker, but - they're WRONG!

Almost no one knows this, but the rules have changed. Now investors can invest in the world's hottest startups before they hit the public exchanges!

I'm talking about companies like Elon's xAI or SpaceX... all the cool new energy companies of the future... and OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT.

Some of the biggest gains ever have come from private investing. Go ahead and look them up.

So I ask you - why leave all these exciting investments to the Wall Street folks while you get left behind?

You can now invest in these companies! Yes, YOU can!

But how?

As you know, I'm a chart guy - not a startup guy. So I'm not the one who can tell you all the secrets of private investing.

But here's what I can do for you...

I've asked a fancy venture capitalist friend of mine to share the secrets of private investing with you over the next three days.

This guy has sold several startups of his own. He and his business partners own stakes in more than 50 private companies including SpaceX and xAI...

And now he can share a way to claim a stake in the world's hottest private AI company - OpenAI!

Just do me a favor...

Don't forget about little ol' JC when you get rich from private investing, OK?

---

​ Three Ways to Mint Money from Startup Investing​ By Matt Milner, Founder, Crowdability​

Last Friday, before I took off for a long summer weekend, my friend Aitio dropped by the office.

He stops by a few times a year just to say hello.

He wasn't exactly in our downtown Manhattan neighborhood. But with his 2023 Tesla Model S Plaid (0-60 MPH in 2 seconds), he doesn't mind traveling.

Aitio used to be a general contractor in Queens. He made a good living, so he started investing in bars and clubs.

But in 2007, he decided to invest in tech startups instead. He had some small wins over the years as an angel investor. A single here and a double there. But a few years ago, he hit a homerun.

Now he'll never have to work again.

A Simple (But Brilliant) Investment Philosophy​

When we started Crowdability back in 2014, we asked Aitio to describe his investment philosophy - and we'll never forget his response:

He paused to think, stroked his well-groomed goatee, then broke into a smile. "All it takes is one," he said.

And that's where he got his nickname:

A.I.T.I.O: All It Takes Is One.

Average vs. Above Average​

To decipher Aitio's philosophy, let's review the numbers behind startup investing.

According to Cambridge Associates (an advisor to institutions like The Rockefeller Foundation and Harvard University), investing in startups has returned an average of 58% per year over 25 years.

That's enough to double your money every couple of years or so.

But remember, that's just the average. Plenty of folks - people we know and work with - have done far better than average.

For example, consider our business partner Howard Lindzon. Howard's annual returns have been measured in the "hundreds of percent."

What's the secret to earning triple-digit annual returns?

Let Aitio give you a hint:

All it takes is one.

You've Seen the Evidence​

Long-time Crowdability readers will recognize our familiar stories about investors who've hit it big on a single investment.

For example, Howard's investment in Uber. For every $5,000 he invested, he got back $2 million a few years later. That's 400 times his money.

Then there's Paul Graham, another startup investor. On his investment in a web service called Heroku, he earned 491 times his money.

And when he invested in Twitch, a video-game company, he earned an estimated 573 times his money.

All It Takes Is One​

And here's the thing:

Even if you make dozens of startup investments and all of them go to zero - well, all of them except one...

You could still make a fortune.

Because all it takes is one.

Enough to Retire​

Let's say you invest in 50 startups over the next few years.

You put $1,000 into each one, for a total investment of $50,000.

Based on the historical odds, it's likely you'll get a handful of "base hits" - enough hits to get you to the 58% annual returns we mentioned earlier.

But even if 49 of the companies go belly up - in other words, even if your first 49 investments literally go to zero...

As long as the 50th company turns out to be "an Uber" - the investment where Howard made 400 times in money - your $1,000 investment would be worth $400,000.

So your $50,000 startup portfolio would turn into $400,000.

That's a 700% net return.

And what if you'd invested $5,000 into each startup instead?

Your stake would be worth $2 million.

For most folks, that's enough money to retire.

And that is what's so exciting about startup investing:

All it takes is one investment to change your life.

A trader’s worst nightmare isn’t losing money. It’s booking a “solid” 10% winner… only to watch that same trade run for 110%. That’s where Breakout Multiplier changes the game. We scan thousands of stocks daily, with only the cleanest breakouts making the cut. Then we layer in options for maximum leverage and manage the trade with strict discipline. That’s how a 10–20% stock move can become 100%+. Since July 1st, we’ve closed 40 trades. 18 of them have doubled. That’s a 45% double rate.

​

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Earnings season is the heartbeat of the market - and every day brings fresh signals about where money is flowing. With each report, we learn not just how companies are performing, but how investors are reacting. In the Daily Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings moves from the prior session - the winners, the losers, and the reactions that reveal what really matters to the market right now. Whether it’s a bellwether with broad economic implications or a niche name making waves, we cut through the noise to focus on the setups that matter most.

Here are the latest earnings stats from the S&P 500

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*Click the image to enlarge it After reporting a double, the $4.4T darling of the AI Revolution, Nvidia $NVDA, had a muted -0.51 reaction score. They posted revenues of $46.74B, versus the expected $46.05B, and earnings per share of $1.05, versus the expected $1.01. The $23B cybersecurity giant, CrowdStrike $CRWD, had a +1.38 reaction score after reporting a double beat. Their report showed revenues of $1.17B, versus the expected $1.15B, and earnings per share of $0.93, versus the expected $0.83. Now let's dive into the fundamentals and technicals

CRWD snapped a 3-quarter beatdown streak

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CrowdStrike rallied 4.6% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:

Total top-line revenue grew by 21% year-over-year, driven by a quarterly record of $221M in net new ARR. Free cash flow also reached a record high of $284M, driven by margin expansion. In addition to the record quarter, the management team issued forward guidance that was better than expected.

After a multi-month corrective wave and 3 consecutive negative earnings reactions, we think this earnings report was the catalyst to spark a fresh leg higher and likely a new streak of positive earnings reactions. Thursday's move formed a textbook bullish engulfing candlestick, which is one of our favorite technical indicators for marking the end of a downtrend (so long as there's follow-through). Despite some recent headwinds (e.g., the July 19, 2024, incident), the company remains one of the most dominant players in cybersecurity. So long as CRWD holds above 426, the path of least resistance is higher for the foreseeable future.

NVDA failed to rally on good news

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Nvidia fell 0.8% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:

Revenue grew 56% year-over-year, driven by a 56% increase in Data Center revenue over the same period. Net income is growing even faster at 59% year-over-year. So far this year, they have returned $24.3B to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. This is expected to increase with the new $60B repurchase authorization. In addition to the strong quarter, the management team boosted its revenue guidance to $54B. This could surprise to the upside if they're able to recognize Chinese revenue during the quarter.

This was another unbelievably good quarter from the darling of the AI Revolution. They are riding the massive tailwind of cloud and enterprise CapEx for data centers, nearly doubling in two years to what is projected to be $600B this year. In Sunday's column of The Weekly Beat, we highlighted that the earnings reactions have been anything but consistent. The last 5 reactions have been negative, positive, negative, positive, negative. Completely trendless... We think there's a significant chance the company will be able to recognize Chinese revenue during the quarter, which could spark the next leg higher in the stock. This could also mark the beginning of a new positive trend in the earnings reactions. As you can see on the chart, the price is consolidating above a key Fibonacci extension level after more than doubling off the April low. This would be a logical level to see a prolonged digestion of gains. So long as NVDA holds above 174, the path of least resistance is sideways to higher for the foreseeable future.

Friday, August 29, 2025

Oil prices are headed towards a second straight weekly gain of 1%, with ICE Brent hovering slightly above $68 per barrel, as hopes for a negotiated settlement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict dissipate and US-India trade tensions remain unresolved. Market activity was seasonally low in late August; however, next week could provide a much-needed boost to oil trade as OPEC+ countries meet on September 7 to assess current market conditions and their output cuts.

Europe Wants Its Own Secondary Sanctions. French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz issued a joint statement calling for secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, potentially prohibiting European exports and technology transfers to countries such as India, China and Turkey.

Saudi Arabia to Slash October Prices. As OPEC+ countries finalize the 2.2 million b/d unwinding next month, Saudi Arabia is expected to cut Asia-bound October formula prices by $0.50-0.70 per barrel in line with easing Dubai time spreads and waning demand as Asian refiners start seasonal maintenance.

Gazprom’s Eastward Ambitions Hit The Beijing Wall. Russia’s pipeline gas monopoly Gazprom has failed to advance negotiations on the stalled Power of Siberia-2 pipeline ahead of Putin’s visit to China this weekend; however, Beijing expressed readiness to boost gas supplies via PoS-1 by 6 bcm per year.

Pipeline Damage Hampers Russian Exports. Russia’s crude oil exports via the Baltic port of Ust-Luga are expected to be capped at around 350,000 b/d, or half the usual throughput capacity, after Ukraine damaged the Unecha pumping station in a drone strike last week, diverting oil to other export terminals.

LA Refinery to Start Closure Next Week. US downstream giant Phillips 66 (NYSESX) will begin the decommissioning of its 140,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery next week, perhaps even earlier than the previously mentioned Q4 2025 deadline for idling, creating a void in fuel supply in California.

Beijing Sets Eyes on Steel Overcapacity. According to media reports, Chinese authorities are set to initiate industry consultations to limit steel production between 2025 and 2026, forcing the closure of inefficient furnaces as the country’s steel exports hit a record high this year to date, at 68 million tonnes.

Mexico’s Refinery Jewel Goes Offline. Mexico’s much-anticipated 340,000 b/d Dos Bocas refinery has been taken offline following a power outage in the state of Tabasco, a force majeure triggered by heavy rainfall that damaged the plant’s transformer just as it was ramping up runs to half capacity.

Vitol Latches onto Syrian Oil Supplies. Global trading house Vitol is expected to load the first cargo of Syrian oil – known for its viscosity and high sulphur content – ever since the United States lifted sanctions on the al-Sharaa government this June, reportedly taking the crude to an Italian refiner.

South Korea’s Petchem Curbs Are Progressing. As South Korean petrochemical firms agreed to cut 25% of the country’s naphtha cracking capacity earlier this month, it is reported that small and stand-alone crackers would be the first ones to be scrapped, with cash-strapped YNCC bearing the brunt of closures.

US to Thwart Chinese Takeover of Tungsten. US and European officials have been voicing their concerns around a potential Chinese takeover of Vietnam’s Nui Phao tungsten mining complex, currently owned by Masan, which was put up for sale and prompting Chinese firms to look out for reliable proxy bidders.

Brazil Readies for Key Exploration Well. Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras (NYSEBR) concluded an emergency drill in the untapped Foz do Amazonas basin, the last step to secure a final exploration license at the mouth of the Amazon River, believed to be the country’s next oil-producing frontier.

Lithium Prices Start to Fall Again. The rebound in lithium carbonate futures lasted less than a month as Chinese miners started securing renewals of production licences, sending prices to a three-week low of ¥75,700 ($10,585/mt) this week as Yongxing’s (SHE:002756) Jiangxi mine reported a successful extension.

Bangladesh Courts Saudi LNG Deal. The government of Bangladesh started talks with Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) to sign an MoU for energy cooperation, including a term deal covering LNG imports after the South Asian nation signed a 17-cargo contract with Oman’s OQ Trading.

Bullish evidence continues to build. Breadth is expanding, risk appetite is accelerating, and some of the riskiest areas of the market are heating up again. One of the hottest spots has been quantum stocks. They are among the top-performing groups of this cycle. After a monster run earlier this year, these leaders spent the past six weeks consolidating and digesting gains — now they’re breaking higher once again. Here you’re looking at the Defiance Quantum ETF $QTUM pushing out of a clean base to fresh all-time highs.

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If this breakout holds above 95, the trend is higher, and quantum stocks are likely to show leadership again. We just put on a new trade idea on $QUBT today for Breakout Multiplier members.

Private equity firm completes Walgreens buyout​

Sycamore Partners completed its $23.7 billion takeover of Walgeens Boots Alliance, whose shares no longer will trade on the Nasdaq.
Why it matters: One of the nation's largest pharmacy chains is now owned by a private equity firm with no health care experience, as Sycamore has focused exclusively on retail.

• The company will be led by new CEO Mike Motz, who previously led U.S. retail for Sycamore portfolio company Staples. Before that, he was president of Canada's Shoppers Drug Mart.
• Former CEO Tim Wentworth will remain on the board.

The intrigue: Might Sycamore consider selling off Shields? It's a Walgreens crown jewel, but also a complex specialty pharmacy business whose disposal could help reduce debt.

• Sycamore already disclosed its intention to sell VillageMD, which includes Village Medical, Summit Health, and CityMD.

The bottom line: This is the largest retail LBO of all-time, and Walgreens appears to have more annual revenue than any other company ever acquired by private equity.



Inflation has firmed up in the last few months, and economic activity held up. The Fed looks to be about to cut interest rates anyway.

Why it matters: The case for easier money rests on the need to look through that inflation as a one-time jolt — and to assess that there is an underlying softness to consumer activity.

• As the Fed gears up to cut interest rates in less than three weeks, the latest data shows consumer incomes and spending were solid in July as inflation ticked up.
• In effect, the bet of the pro-rate-cut Fed officials is that even if tariffs drive higher prices, it will prove a one-time event — and will simultaneously cause softening in consumer demand and the job market that will work counter to that inflationary surge.

By the numbers: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's go-to inflation gauge, was stable at 2.6% on a year-on-year basis. The core measure, which excludes energy and food costs and is considered a better gauge of underlying inflation, rose 2.9% in the year ended in July, the fourth straight increase.

• Core PCE was running at a 3% annualized pace over the previous three months, up from 2.6% in June.
• Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.4% in July and consumer spending rose 0.5%, pointing to solid underlying activity.
• The new data was enough to push the Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP tracker tool to an estimated 3.5% growth rate in Q3, up from 2.2% before the data.

Yes, but: The case for rate cuts relies not on those headline numbers, but on underwhelming trend growth and the prospect that the job market is slowing rapidly.

• "Looking into the consumer spending details, it is increasingly evident that households are struggling to push through," said EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco in a note.
• The gains, he noted, are "largely a reflection of wild swings in auto and recreational vehicles," which have flatlined over a longer arc.

What they're saying: "Economic activity has slowed significantly in 2025 from 2024," said Fed governor Christopher Waller — an advocate of rate cuts and a potential nominee to be the next leader of the central bank — in a speech last night.

• "Growth for the first half of the year was 1.2%. Looking ahead, the limited evidence we have is consistent with continued sluggish growth," he said.
• "Tariffs affect the costs and profits of businesses and, to the degree that they raise prices, also affect the real disposable income of consumers. Some businesses will be directly affected by tariffs, but many more will be affected by how tariffs crimp household spending."
• In the job market, he said, "risks are continuing to build."

Of note: "I favored reducing the federal funds rate" at the Fed's July meeting, Waller said, "and subsequent data on the labor market and inflation indicate this was the right call.

• "So, let's get on with it," he said.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Everybody knows that energy has been one of the biggest laggards of this bull market. While technology, industrials, and even some of the more defensive sectors have staged powerful uptrends, energy has gone sideways at best. In fact, it remains the only S&P 500 sector SPDR still trading below its Great Financial Crisis highs. If this is truly a broad bull market - and we believe it is - then at some point, we should expect meaningful rotation into energy. The charts suggest that the moment may be close. We're seeing historic volatility compression in energy futures:

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The ASC Energy Futures Composite holds an equal-weight basket of Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gasoline, and Natural Gas. This provides us with valuable insight into the energy commodity complex as a whole. After a 500% surge off the COVID lows, the price has done nothing, consolidating in a multi-year range. To us, this looks less like a top and more like accumulation, in the context of a strong primary uptrend. Beneath the surface, volatility has collapsed... Our Bollinger Bandwidth indicator shows one of the tightest compressions we’ve ever seen, coiling into the apex of a symmetrical triangle. Historically, periods of such extreme volatility compression are followed by explosive moves.

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. This is a classic leadership scan. We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. This week’s standout is Consumer Discretionary, which jumped to the top spot in our sector rankings.

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Consumer stocks are flexing their strength more and more as this bull market broadens. The sector is breaking out to fresh all-time highs. At the same time, when you stack it up against its defensive counterpart—Consumer Staples—it’s also pushing to new relative highs, signaling risk-seeking behavior among investors. This tells us market participants are playing offense and positioning for this bull cycle to continue- a classic sign of a risk-on environment. Here’s a look at our overall industry rankings, which show Automobiles jumping eight spots to enter the top 5.

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This group is riding a powerful wave of momentum. Their sharp run up the leaderboard is confirmation that money is rotating into more cyclical oriented industries. Below are the Top 10 names in the Automobiles subsector, ranked by relative strength.

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This week’s spotlight stock is Hesai Group $HSAI, a $3.2B Chinese company specializing in three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions, aka LiDAR. Not only is this a top stock in a top group… but it’s also a Chinese speculative growth name. We’re checking a lot of bullish boxes with this one.

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HSAI just broke out of a massive base, and has successfully retested the breakout level around its old IPO highs. As long as we’re above 24, the path of least resistance is higher, and I want to be long with an initial target of 36 and a secondary target of 57 over longer timeframes. And this is more than just a perfect chart. This is further confirmation that we’re on the right track by positioning for a big move in Chinese equities. We’ve put a handful of trades on China lately, making them our main overweight in the Breakout Multiplier portfolio. A massive trend reversal is underway and the biggest stocks are all buying in. We’re sitting pretty, up about 150% in both our BABA and BIDU calls, with plenty of time before expiration. We’re planning to put another China trade on in a mega cap growth stock early next week. If you want access to it, take advantage of our Labor Day sale and get Breakout Multiplier for 55% off right now! Have a bull market holiday weekend!

Late last year, a new world record shook the financial world:

A private startup raised $10 billion.

When most startups go out to raise capital, they raise a million or two. If they're hot, they might raise five or ten million. A tiny handful raise $100+ million.

But $10 billion? That's insane.

What's happening here - and how can it help you make money?

Let's take a look.

DataBricks Takes the Cake​

The company I'm referring to is an AI startup. It's called Databricks.

In December 2024, it raised $10 billion - that's a lot of cake - at a valuation of $62 billion.

That set a record for the largest venture-capital funding round.

DataBricks is a monster. It recently hit $3 billion in annualized revenue, and in Q3 2024, its quarter over quarter revenue jumped 60%.

But it really makes you wonder:

Why hasn't a monster like this already gone public in a big, splashy IPO?

Why is it still private?

And how can investors like you profit from this craziness?

This Chart Says it All​

To explain, let me start by showing you a mind-blowing chart.

As you can see below (compliments of venture firm Andreessen Horowitz), over the last twenty years or so, there's been a shift in the type of investor that captures the largest returns.



For each company you see above (Apple, Amazon, Facebook, etc.), the grey portion of each bar chart reflects the profits captured by public market investors...

And the orange portion shows the profits captured by private investors.

As you can see with even a quick glance, for years, public investors reaped the lion's share of a company's returns.

For example, look at Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).

When it went public in 1986, Microsoft's market cap was about $777 million. At the time, its earliest private investors could have cashed out for about 200x. Not bad.

But after it went public, stock market investors made far more than that. As of April 1, 2025, they've made about 5,000x their money. That's enough to turn $1,000 into $5 million.

Furthermore, prior to 2004, stock market investors also did well in companies like Apple, Oracle, and Amazon.

But look what's been happening more recently:

Time and again, from Google to LinkedIn to Twitter, early private investors made hundreds of times their money - and meanwhile, public market investors made peanuts.

What's going on here?

Private Market Profits​

As it turns out, two recent trends are making it less attractive to invest in the stock market...

And far more desirable to invest in the private market.

Trend #1: Staying Private Longer - In the year 2000, the average amount of time between a company being founded and going IPO was 6 years. Today, that number is closer to 10 years.

Those four extra years allow a company to build its business - and its value - dramatically.

DataBricks is a great example. It's twelve-year-old, still private, and already worth $62 billion.

In markets of old, DataBricks would have gone public years ago, back when its value was closer to $1 billion. And stock market investors could have profited handsomely.

But not in today's world.

Nowadays, private investors are the ones capturing the upside from these monsters.

Trend #2: Raising Money Privately - Private companies today have less pressure to IPO. If they need growth capital, they can access it in the private market.

From hedge funds to mutual funds, the world's most prominent investors are piling into the private markets. They recognize that most of a company's value is being created before it gets to the stock market.

And thankfully, now that the laws have changed, regular investors like you can finally access the private markets, too.

Risk appetite continues to improve as investors reach further out on the risk curve to take full advantage of this bull run. As for market internals, they are as bullish as they’ve been all year. Small Caps are finally working, even outperforming. Leading speculative areas like Quantum and Space & Exploration are charging higher again. China and other Emerging Market equities are outperforming around the globe. Put simply, investors have their offense on the field, and they’re looking to score. The animal spirits are alive and well. The riskiest assets are delivering the biggest returns. And this is really the perfect environment for crypto, isn’t it? Remember, while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana trade like Magnificent Sevens or mega cap growth stocks— alt coins trade like speculative growth stocks. We also have some speculative growth stocks that operate in the cryptocurrency space. I’m talking about the BTC miners, which are emerging as our new crypto leaders. They are riding tailwinds from both BTC as well as the speculative growth theme this year. Institutions are taking big stakes in some of these names, and the tech giants are partnering up with them. More importantly, they look as good as anything from a technical view. Here’s the Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF, which is currently on the verge of breaking out to new all-time highs.

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One more green candle and this breakout is in the books. I think this is actually a great option for investors because the BTC miners are such a diverse basket of stocks. I like it long above 30.50 with a target of 47. But as always, I’m more interested in owning the top names from under the hood of this ETF. Let’s run through some of the components I’ve used to build my own basket. Here’s Applied Digital Corp $APLD:

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Applied Digital broke out of a base two weeks ago. I’m long above 13.50, targeting 34. Next is Iris Energy, now IREN Ltd $IREN:

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This industry leader just resolved a massive base with a 15% breakaway gap on Friday. As long as IREN is above its post-IPO highs near 28.50, I’m long with a first target of 45 and a secondary target of 73. Here’s Cipher Mining $CIFR with another nice base:

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CIFR has spent the past year consolidating constructively below 7.50. This level has acted as resistance several times already, but it looks like buyers might finally get it done. CIFR pierced above the breakout level with a wide-ranging candle Friday. I’m looking for a follow-through next week. If the breakout sticks, I’m long with a target of $15.50. I also own the warrants in this one. Next is Hut 8 Corp $HUT, which was among the first to see institutional interest when Coatue took an almost 10% stake last summer:

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HUT just completed a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern. If it’s above 21, I’m long and targeting 82. If I had to pick a long-term favorite, this would probably be it. Next is Bitdeer Technologies $BTDR, which might be the most actionable right now as it looks to resolve a coil at the upper bounds of a multi-year base:

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BTDR is pressing up against a critical confluence of resistance marked by a shelf of former highs and the VWAP from all-time highs around 15. I think a monster breakout is brewing, so I’m jumping the entry and targeting 34. Last but not least, here’s one of the old-school BTC miners, Riot Platforms $RIOT:

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RIOT has been a laggard in this space for years, but I think that’s changing, and there is a massive catch-up opportunity at play. If RIOT resolves this multi-year channel and reclaims its VWAP from all-time highs, I think it’s heading back that way, and fast. I’ve been accumulating above the pivot high VWAP, which comes in around 13. I’m using the shelf of highs since late last year, around 15 for confirmation. If we’re above there, I’m all in on RIOT with a long-term target of 75. And I’m not just trading the common stock in these new crypto leaders. I’ve been piling on exposure to this theme for weeks in our Breakout Multiplier portfolio. I bought APLD calls when the stock was breaking out in July. I’ve already sold a double and am currently up over 3x on the remaining half position. And this week, I added two new longs in BTC miners, which are both still trading around my entry price.

With the recent news that there are now more ETFs than stocks in the US, we wanted to provide an update on the dollar amounts that have flowed into ETFs so far this decade. Since the end of 2019, exchange-traded products (ETPs) in the U.S. -- primarily ETFs -- have exploded in size, outpacing even the impressive rise of the S&P 500. The first chart below highlights just how powerful the trend has been: while the S&P 500’s total return has surged about +120% since the start of 2020, US ETF assets under management (AUM) have climbed an even steeper +177%. That gap shows that ETFs have not just grown alongside the market; they’ve attracted a massive wave of fresh capital from investors seeking low-cost, diversified, and flexible investment vehicles. The second chart below underscores this growth in dollar terms. According to Bloomberg, U.S. ETF assets have ballooned from around $4 trillion at the start of 2020 to a record $12.3 trillion today. While markets have had their ups and downs over the past five years, the long-term trajectory of ETF adoption has been relentlessly upward. This expansion is being fueled not only by equity gains but also by the sheer volume of new inflows, as investors of all sizes, retail to institutional, continue to shift from mutual funds and other structures into ETFs. Put simply, ETFs are no longer a niche product...they are the market. With their assets now equal to more than half of U.S. GDP, their influence on trading flows, liquidity, and even market structure will only grow. And with ETF growth running far ahead of the broader equity market, this wave of adoption shows no sign of slowing down.

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NVIDIA (NVDA) is How Big?? The largest company in the world -- NVIDIA (NVDA) -- reported quarterly earnings on Wednesday (8/27) after the close, and you can read our review of NVDA's conference call here if you're interested. While NVIDIA (NVDA) has historically averaged a one-day change of nearly +/-8% following earnings, its reaction to this quarter's report was a decline of less than 1%. As you can see in the chart below, bulls went into NVDA earnings hoping the stock would break out to new highs after a period of sideways action since mid-July. That breakout has yet to materialize, though, and today we're seeing shares head lower by 2-3% again. For now, new highs for NVDA appear to be on hold.

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Below are a few charts that highlight just how gigantic NVIDIA (NVDA) has become. The first stacks NVDA's market cap against the world’s largest economies. At $4.4 trillion, NVIDIA is now bigger than the entire equity markets of five of the seven G7 countries—Italy, Germany, France, the U.K., and Canada. Japan is the only non-US country in the G7 that's bigger. That means one U.S. company, riding the AI wave, is worth more than the combined value of every publicly traded company in several of the world’s most advanced economies.

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If you thought comparing NVIDIA to entire countries was wild, our next chart shows just how far ahead it is of some of America’s most iconic companies. With a market cap north of $4 trillion, NVIDIA is worth 6 Walmarts (WMT), 11 Costcos (COST), 20 McDonald’s (MCD), or 25 Citigroups (C). Taking it further, it could swallow 38 Nikes (NKE), 45 Starbucks (SBUX), or 50 Dells (DELL). At the extreme end, NVIDIA’s value equals about 60 UPS (UPS), 78 Chipotles (CMG), 94 Fords (F), 102 Targets (TGT), or 103 eBays (EBAY). Put simply, NVIDIA’s market cap isn’t just massive, it’s in a league of its own, making even household corporate giants look like small caps by comparison.

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Our last chart pushes the point even further: NVIDIA’s market cap doesn’t just dwarf corporate icons, it makes entire industries look minuscule. At today’s size, NVIDIA is worth the same as 119 Hersheys (HSY), 183 Lululemons (LULU), or 244 Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS). It could equal 290 Domino’s (DPZ), 358 Wynn Resorts (WYNN), or 458 New York Times (NYT). Stretch it further, and you get jaw-dropping multiples: 551 Gaps (GAP), 984 Shake Shacks (SHAK), 1,223 Macy’s (M), 2,090 Under Armours (UAA), 3,036 Kohl’s (KSS), or an incredible 3,451 Cracker Barrels (CBRL). When one company is worth thousands of other recognizable brands outright, it underscores just how unprecedented NVIDIA’s dominance has become.

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• Despite all the hype around $NVDA earnings, the Technology Sector ($XLK) finished the week unchanged. It closed the month slightly lower by just -0.11%, ending a four-month winning streak.
  
• As we enter the worst month of the year, Michael notes that $XLK has formed a potential Head & Shoulders Top over the past month. Breaking below the neckline, around $255, would confirm this bearish pattern.
  
• Momentum has faded, with RSI diverging and failing to produce a single overbought reading in August. Chart patterns often fail when everyone sees the same thing, and it's often bullish when bearish patterns fail. However, the major indices will struggle if their largest sector completes this top.
  

The Takeaway: The Technology sector ($XLK) has formed a potential Head & Shoulders Top as we enter what has typically been a weak month for stocks. If this top completes, the major indices will feel the pressure. On the other hand, if it fails, it will be a tailwind into year-end.

Post-Labor Day blues likely compounded by weak first trading day of September​

S&P 500 has been up 18 of the last 30 years on the first trading day of September, but this trend appears to be fading as the S&P 500 has been down ten of the last seventeen first trading days. DJIA’s first trading day performance has experienced a similar trend reversal, also down ten times since 2008. NASDAQ has been slightly better, but still leans bearish, down nine and up eight. Proximity to the three-day Labor Day holiday weekend can dampen trading activity, which could be a factor this year with the first day falling on Tuesday. This was certainly the case last year with DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all dropping over 1.5%.







I'll have a lot more to say on the week's and now month's closing price action and headlines.


jog on
duc