Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[moXJO]

My strategy is to take the money while you can and not be greedy. Lots of volatility is good until it isn't. If things go south really bad, you could have lots of money stuck in a stock. People forget that it just happens overnight with little to no warning.

Its hard to pick the timing right now. Things look too hot in tech sectors and its still early in AI. I'd say expectations of the technology are not going to be met and we get a flash correction.
Timing though and there's lots of other moving parts.

This will be a disruptor cycle though over the next few years.

Im a gambler.

 

[moXJO]

So the question is should we be buying materials? And what should we be avoiding? What will this do to Australia? What should win in the USA?

I think looking at who Trump is in bed with. He has a few billionaire investors he is in constant contact with. Watching where they are investing probably the easy move.

Im worried about Australia. I don't think the US is the horse to back on this side of the world.

 

[sptrawler]

I think looking at who Trump is in bed with. He has a few billionaire investors he is in constant contact with. Watching where they are investing probably the easy move.

Im worried about Australia. I don't think the US is the horse to back on this side of the world.

Trying to stay as neutral as possible, is probably the best move, which Albo is obviously trying to do but isn't easy.
Hopefully the U.S and China come to an agreed outcome that is workable for us.
Neither the U.S or China, give a rats behind about us. Lol

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So the question is should we be buying materials? And what should we be avoiding? What will this do to Australia? What should win in the USA?

I believe Materials are the way to go for Australian investors, particularly with the stoush with China over old and new materials. Speaking of which Trump has again postponed tariff imposition on China.

From the FT.COM

Donald Trump has extended a trade war truce with China for another 90 days, just hours before his Tuesday deadline to steepen tariffs on the world’s biggest exporter.
The US president’s move was widely expected because his government has been reluctant to reignite the fierce trade conflict with Beijing that rattled markets in April when US levies on Chinese imports rose up to 145 per cent. Beijing’s strict export restrictions on rare earths also threaten American manufacturing.
Trump said in an executive order signed on Monday that the US “continues to have discussions with the PRC [People’s Republic of China] to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns”.
The president added that China was taking “significant steps toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns” and the suspension of higher tariffs would be in place until November 10.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

I believe Materials are the way to go for Australian investors, particularly with the stoush with China over old and new materials. Speaking of which Trump has again postponed tariff imposition on China.

From the FT.COM

Donald Trump has extended a trade war truce with China for another 90 days, just hours before his Tuesday deadline to steepen tariffs on the world’s biggest exporter.
The US president’s move was widely expected because his government has been reluctant to reignite the fierce trade conflict with Beijing that rattled markets in April when US levies on Chinese imports rose up to 145 per cent. Beijing’s strict export restrictions on rare earths also threaten American manufacturing.
Trump said in an executive order signed on Monday that the US “continues to have discussions with the PRC [People’s Republic of China] to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns”.
The president added that China was taking “significant steps toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns” and the suspension of higher tariffs would be in place until November 10.

gg

I think Scott Bessent is the key, he seems to be the brains behind the show, Trump is just making sound bites.

 

[moXJO]

I think Scott Bessent is the key, he seems to be the brains behind the show, Trump is just making sound bites.

Guys got a deep financial history. Wasn't he a bigwig in the soros fund when they broke the UK?

 

[sptrawler]

Guys got a deep financial history. Wasn't he a bigwig in the soros fund when they broke the UK?

Don't know his background, just watched an interview with him and he really was on top of the issues.
Made a lot of sense and had a calm placid personality and manner, you know the opposite of Trump. Lol

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Don't know his background, just watched an interview with him and he really was on top of the issues.
Made a lot of sense and had a calm placid personality and manner, you know the opposite of Trump. Lol

I've got copilot as my best friend lol ++++ and I'll apply a word he used which applies to Bessent ... badass. He is over everything financial. I'd be his driver any old day of the week

 

[moXJO]

We have to look at the likes of UK, Canada and Australia and you can clearly see the system is steadily imploding.
Im not saying what Trump is doing is going to work. But its time for drastic change. At least they are taking some form of action in their interests.

Australia recorded the worst drop in living standards.
I'd argue UK and Canada must be heading the same way. These welfare programs are getting well out of hand. Eventually its going to end up in a heap. Exactly what do we have to crow about.

I don't know how people call Trump "Dumb" and think anything this country is doing is not 5 levels down from his dumbest moments.
UK and Stramer is at a level of idiocy rarely seen. Trudeau was a top tier flog

 

[JohnDe]

We have to look at the likes of UK, Canada and Australia and you can clearly see the system is steadily imploding.
Im not saying what Trump is doing is going to work. But its time for drastic change. At least they are taking some form of action in their interests.

Australia recorded the worst drop in living standards.
I'd argue UK and Canada must be heading the same way. These welfare programs are getting well out of hand. Eventually its going to end up in a heap. Exactly what do we have to crow about.

I don't know how people call Trump "Dumb" and think anything this country is doing is not 5 levels down from his dumbest moments.
UK and Stramer is at a level of idiocy rarely seen. Trudeau was a top tier flog

Agreed.

As I see it, the majority has become more socialist than they care to admit. Everyone wants something from nothing, be it government cash handouts to top up of welfare benefits including free transport, discounts on utilities and the ever expanding PBS, an exploding NDIS, a public broadcasting system that is bigger than any other, constant discussions regarding too much Superannuation, property investments, and on it goes.

And now we are hearing an increase in reasons toe tax the family home.

Australia's income inequality is much worse than we think because official statistics ignore the income that home owners derive from their properties, leading economists say.​

The best ways to lead people in the direction those in charge want is to distract them from seeing the changes that are controversial and cost you power and show them a circus trick. Trump is circus trick for our leaders that are set on changing our political and social system.

Professor Siminski and Professor Wilkins have written an article for The Conversation, published today, that explains their paper's findings. He says a broad-based land tax would be economically efficient (it is advocated by many economists). An explicit tax on owner-occupied housing wealth would be justifiable. A broader wealth tax could be considered.​

Preparing home owners for a yearly capital gains tax on their home as its value increases, just like the new Super tax.

 

[moXJO]

Agreed.

As I see it, the majority has become more socialist than they care to admit. Everyone wants something from nothing, be it government cash handouts to top up of welfare benefits including free transport, discounts on utilities and the ever expanding PBS, an exploding NDIS, a public broadcasting system that is bigger than any other, constant discussions regarding too much Superannuation, property investments, and on it goes.

And now we are hearing an increase in reasons toe tax the family home.

Australia's income inequality is much worse than we think because official statistics ignore the income that home owners derive from their properties, leading economists say.​

The best ways to lead people in the direction those in charge want is to distract them from seeing the changes that are controversial and cost you power and show them a circus trick. Trump is circus trick for our leaders that are set on changing our political and social system.

Professor Siminski and Professor Wilkins have written an article for The Conversation, published today, that explains their paper's findings. He says a broad-based land tax would be economically efficient (it is advocated by many economists). An explicit tax on owner-occupied housing wealth would be justifiable. A broader wealth tax could be considered.​

Preparing home owners for a yearly capital gains tax on their home as its value increases, just like the new Super tax.

And rusted ons would vote it in.
We have enough stupidity here to cover 100 Trumps

 

[divs4ever]

Its hard to pick the timing right now. Things look too hot in tech sectors and its still early in AI. I'd say expectations of the technology are not going to be met and we get a flash correction.
Timing though and there's lots of other moving parts.

This will be a disruptor cycle though over the next few years.

Im a gambler.

have never been fantastic at timing , so use the 'good enough ' strategy ( better to be smallish and early rather than too late and chase desperately )

a disruptor cycle , very likely , but which disruption factor there are several possible ( just like 2020 i was ready for a banking melt-down , but a virus response was the disaster )

i have tried to retire from gambling ( mostly successfully ) am now playing the black arts ( psychology )

 

[divs4ever]

I believe Materials are the way to go for Australian investors, particularly with the stoush with China over old and new materials. Speaking of which Trump has again postponed tariff imposition on China.

From the FT.COM

Donald Trump has extended a trade war truce with China for another 90 days, just hours before his Tuesday deadline to steepen tariffs on the world’s biggest exporter.
The US president’s move was widely expected because his government has been reluctant to reignite the fierce trade conflict with Beijing that rattled markets in April when US levies on Chinese imports rose up to 145 per cent. Beijing’s strict export restrictions on rare earths also threaten American manufacturing.
Trump said in an executive order signed on Monday that the US “continues to have discussions with the PRC [People’s Republic of China] to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns”.
The president added that China was taking “significant steps toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns” and the suspension of higher tariffs would be in place until November 10.

gg

well China is dealing from a position of strength ( and arrogance ) while many do not trust China , they don't have revenge on their mind either .

i hope India is watching and learning the world will be a better place if both future super-powers would rather trade than 'regime-change

China doesn't have to tariff just stop buying US Treasuries and direct it's exports to other markets ( like Indonesia , South America , Africa ) and stifle the US export markets

 

[qldfrog]

We have to look at the likes of UK, Canada and Australia and you can clearly see the system is steadily imploding.
Im not saying what Trump is doing is going to work. But its time for drastic change. At least they are taking some form of action in their interests.

Australia recorded the worst drop in living standards.
I'd argue UK and Canada must be heading the same way. These welfare programs are getting well out of hand. Eventually its going to end up in a heap. Exactly what do we have to crow about.

I don't know how people call Trump "Dumb" and think anything this country is doing is not 5 levels down from his dumbest moments.
UK and Stramer is at a level of idiocy rarely seen. Trudeau was a top tier flog

and do not forget macron who is sinking at all low but in silence..as no one cares
They are suppressing public holidays to increase tax take, deficit exploding..from exploded levels, even Germany is collapsing under the stress

 

[qldfrog]

Agreed.

As I see it, the majority has become more socialist than they care to admit. Everyone wants something from nothing, be it government cash handouts to top up of welfare benefits including free transport, discounts on utilities and the ever expanding PBS, an exploding NDIS, a public broadcasting system that is bigger than any other, constant discussions regarding too much Superannuation, property investments, and on it goes.

And now we are hearing an increase in reasons toe tax the family home.

Australia's income inequality is much worse than we think because official statistics ignore the income that home owners derive from their properties, leading economists say.​

The best ways to lead people in the direction those in charge want is to distract them from seeing the changes that are controversial and cost you power and show them a circus trick. Trump is circus trick for our leaders that are set on changing our political and social system.

Professor Siminski and Professor Wilkins have written an article for The Conversation, published today, that explains their paper's findings. He says a broad-based land tax would be economically efficient (it is advocated by many economists). An explicit tax on owner-occupied housing wealth would be justifiable. A broader wealth tax could be considered.​

Preparing home owners for a yearly capital gains tax on their home as its value increases, just like the new Super tax.

and to pay a weekly rent on your own home, cause it is unfair to have free lodging whereas the poorer are paying rents
Ideas still floating in soviet france and which we will see coming , as above or as ongoing stamp duty replacement
The media is relentless against trump which says a lot about the power in place:
SBS/ABC/Guardian..nearly fair as we can not expect any real brain light in their arrogance in believing that they can think......but the "evil Murdoch, the News limited are as TDS against Trump
And if it is so, it means..no surprise for me, that whether Australian right or left is in command, we keep the same masters and are doomed to oblivion
When will we get a Trump or better a thinking nationalist...
PS for our leftist readers, nationalist or populist should be an honour for a politician: guiding for the people with the will of the people
After: can the Australian "people" want or deserve a real leader..well I do not believe so but I am not optimistic

 

[TimeISmoney]

We have to look at the likes of UK, Canada and Australia and you can clearly see the system is steadily imploding.
Im not saying what Trump is doing is going to work. But its time for drastic change. At least they are taking some form of action in their interests.

Australia recorded the worst drop in living standards.
I'd argue UK and Canada must be heading the same way. These welfare programs are getting well out of hand. Eventually its going to end up in a heap. Exactly what do we have to crow about.

I don't know how people call Trump "Dumb" and think anything this country is doing is not 5 levels down from his dumbest moments.
UK and Stramer is at a level of idiocy rarely seen. Trudeau was a top tier flog

The big problem is that the US leads first world countries. Trump has done nothing different from the last presidents; he's gone to borrowing funds from T-bills because he can't get any more money from 10 year bonds, and blown a crap of money on the military while he's collected money for the tariffs. Job rates are down while he's made America poorer, and now he's turned his allies against himself. What's smart about that?

Australia is a nothing in the grand scheme of things. The biggest problem Australia has is that people are lazy and don't want to work hard. The way the social system is teaching young people, things are going to be ten worse in a few years time.
My accountant rarely answers the phone and doesn't want to work more than 3 days a week, he's knocked off by 3 pm most weekdays.

The Termite guys I use on a yearly basis won't go into the roof cavity of a fairly new home to do checks because it's too dangerous. I'm a 50 year old bloke with a bad back and I'm in there a few times a year. There were a few collapsed cardboard boxes that were leaning up against a wooden fence, and they sent me a report with a pic of the cardboard, saying that they couldn't check the fence because there was cardboard in the way. I rang them to treat a termite nest at my mum's house, and it's been 3 days and I haven't heard anything back, and what's worse is that they want to be paid the same day that they've done the work. Used them for the last 5 years, might tell them where to go this time.

I just laugh to myself when people say to start up more manufacturing jobs, like who is going to do them, more imported migrants. You'd be lucky to find a worker in Australia who wouldn't stare at his mobile for less than 15 mins a day, let alone get a tough days work out of them in a manufacturing plant.

 

[moXJO]

The big problem is that the US leads first world countries. Trump has done nothing different from the last presidents; he's gone to borrowing funds from T-bills because he can't get any more money from 10 year bonds, and blown a crap of money on the military while he's collected money for the tariffs. Job rates are down while he's made America poorer, and now he's turned his allies against himself. What's smart about that?

Australia is a nothing in the grand scheme of things. The biggest problem Australia has is that people are lazy and don't want to work hard. The way the social system is teaching young people, things are going to be ten worse in a few years time.
My accountant rarely answers the phone and doesn't want to work more than 3 days a week, he's knocked off by 3 pm most weekdays.

The Termite guys I use on a yearly basis won't go into the roof cavity of a fairly new home to do checks because it's too dangerous. I'm a 50 year old bloke with a bad back and I'm in there a few times a year. There were a few collapsed cardboard boxes that were leaning up against a wooden fence, and they sent me a report with a pic of the cardboard, saying that they couldn't check the fence because there was cardboard in the way. I rang them to treat a termite nest at my mum's house, and it's been 3 days and I haven't heard anything back, and what's worse is that they want to be paid the same day that they've done the work. Used them for the last 5 years, might tell them where to go this time.

I just laugh to myself when people say to start up more manufacturing jobs, like who is going to do them, more imported migrants. You'd be lucky to find a worker in Australia who wouldn't stare at his mobile for less than 15 mins a day, let alone get a tough days work out of them in a manufacturing plant.

Either way I'd want some kind of future planning beyond the brainfarts Australian politicians come up with.
unions pushing 4 day working weeks while Australia productivity is down. This country is heading for the bin.

From what I thought, Trump was borrowing on shorter term tbills until he got interest rates down. Otherwise you lock in high rates. Or something like that?

 

[Smurf1976]

its still early in AI. I'd say expectations of the technology are not going to be met

AI will almost certainly play out much the same as other major technologies.

The major implications of it won't be the obvious ones.

Eg for historic examples, it wasn't hard to foresee that the motor car would replace horses and that there'd be an industry manufacturing and selling cars, fuel, tyres etc. It required more vision to see shopping centres and international fast food chains as outcomes.

Or for the internet it wasn't hard to foresee email and online banking. The idea that it'd substantially change dating and would reverse the music business (historically the reason for concert tours was simply to promote the sale of albums which were the real business, now the opposite is true) was less obvious.

AI will be much the same almost certainly. The major implications of it will be things that aren't at all obvious but that's where the greatest investment potential likely exists - with the not so obvious implications.

 

[sptrawler]

Preparing home owners for a yearly capital gains tax on their home as its value increases, just like the new Super tax.

Once they have finished propping up the system by gutting the middle class, it only leaves either death duties or capital gains on the PPR.
It is becomming unavoidable.

 

[qldfrog]

Once they have finished propping up the system by gutting the middle class, it only leaves either death duties or capital gains on the PPR.
It is becomming unavoidable.

Obviously, we could also reduce spending and government share of the economy but fair chance of that