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Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

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President Donald Trump signed an executive order that clears a path for alternative assets to be added into 401(k)s.
Doing a number' on, assets such as private equity, cryptocurrencies and real estate into 401(k)s. Get America rich quick, make America great again.

 
Bailxtrader said:
President Donald Trump signed an executive order that clears a path for alternative assets to be added into 401(k)s.
Doing a number' on, assets such as private equity, cryptocurrencies and real estate into 401(k)s. Get America rich quick, make America great again.

Click to expand...
Hmmm remains to be seen.
Perhaps cost blowouts for the locals of the US, job losses, bankruptcies, foreclosures.
Hmmm MAGA
 
farmerge said:
Hmmm remains to be seen.
Perhaps cost blowouts for the locals of the US, job losses, bankruptcies, foreclosures.
Hmmm MAGA
Click to expand...
No it's just allowing people to dodge tax on more asset classes.

It's the equivalent of allowing people to buy crypto in a self managed super fund here, where the most tax you ever pay is 15%. The catch of course is that you can't access it until you hit retirement age but if you're in that 50ish to 60 age bracket where you're just saving for your retirement and wouldn't be taking any money out of it anyway then it's a phenomenal way to dodge a mountain of tax.

A little fun anecdote here is that peter thiel, one of the founders of paypal along with elon musk who was then one of the early angel investors in facebook actually bought a whole mountain of shares in facebook back in like 2006 with the american equivalent of his self managed super fund which is going to mean that once he does hit retirement age and start to sell the shares off here and there he's going to dodge literally billions of dollars of tax when he does it.

Trump's changes just allow you to do this with crypto directly. There used to be no way to do it at all, then crypto etf's were approved, now you can just buy the crypto straight up and dodge the etf fees entirely.
 
over9k said:
Meanwhile, talks of a peace/trade deal between usa & russia send oil plummeting on account of it being a bit of a tacit admission that the war might be lost for putin.
Click to expand...
I am sure Ukrainians would like to have tacit admission they lost the war like Putin
in any case talks and an end to the carnage would be nice.
And cheaper oil for us
 
qldfrog said:
I am sure Ukrainians would like to have tacit admission they lost the war like Putin
in any case talks and an end to the carnage would be nice.
And cheaper oil for us
Click to expand...
But, but Mr Frog surely The Trumpet ended this skirmish long ago when he was budding up to Putrid.
 

US Treasury to Sell a Record $100 Billion of Four-Week Bills​


"The US government plans to borrow $100 billion in a single Treasury debt sale this week, an unprecedented figure that showcases both the magnitude of its borrowing needs and its ability to attract investors.
The Treasury said on Tuesday that it will auction $100 billion of four-week bills on Thursday, a record for the maturity and an increase of $5 billion from the previous week.

The department has been boosting bill sales to rebuild its cash balance after the debt ceiling was lifted at the beginning of July. But the mammoth size is also likely a harbinger of growing bill auctions ahead to help plug the federal budget deficit.
Last week, the Treasury signalled it will rely more on the shortest-dated securities to fund the spending gap at least until 2026, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in June that yields on longer maturities were too high to consider increasing sales of such debt. The department said it anticipates additional increases in October.

“The increase is just the start given Treasury’s desire to focus on additional bill issuance in the coming quarters and years,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US interest-rate strategy at TD Securities. “So while markets will likely focus on the size, bill auction sizes are only likely to grow further in the coming years.”


To put the size of the four-week offering in context, the government will also sell a combined $125 billion of coupon-bearing securities this week: $58 billion of three-year notes on Tuesday, $42 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday and $25 billion of 30-year debt Thursday. The three- and 10-year offerings have been at peak sizes for more than a year.

The latest T-bill increase follows the $5 billion boost in the six-week tenor that was announced last week, to be sold Tuesday. Treasury will also sell $65 billion of 17-week bills Wednesday and $85 billion of 8-week bills on Thursday. Both amounts are unchanged.
With cash flowing into US money-market funds, which now hold about $7.4 trillion, there appears to be ample demand for the upsized bill sales, at least for now.

Fed Watch​

One potential complication for money-fund managers is that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again as soon as September. When rate cuts are seen as being on the horizon, as has been the case for months, the funds tend to extend the weighted average maturity of their holdings, favoring bills that will carry higher rates for longer.
As a result, the weighted average maturity of government money funds — which invest primarily in securities such as T-bills, repurchase agreements and agency debt — has been around 40 days since May, near a record high, according to Bank of America. To BofA strategists Katie Craig and Mark Cabana, that means the funds may not have much capacity to extend and absorb bill supply at tenors longer than 1.5 months.

Still, at this point there’s little reason to worry about a broad decline in appetite for T-bills on the part of money funds, given that even those that aren’t Treasury-only funds use the securities to help fulfil daily liquidity requirements, according to Peter Crane, president of Crane Data LLC.
“Every fund wants to buy Treasuries, at the right yield,” he said.

To be sure, Treasury has already borrowed larger amounts via a single security, but those were created via a series of auctions spread out over months. For example, the single largest Treasury on record is a $335 billion issue that matured in April. It began as a $46 billion 1-year bill sold in April 2024 and was expanded via a succession of bill auctions over the following year.
The Trump administration has said that its economic policies will lift US growth and increase the Treasury’s revenue — reducing deficits. However, most analysts expect outsize borrowing needs for years to come, suggesting the government eventually will need to boost sales of debt across maturities."
 
Not relevant to Trump specifically but relevant to the US of today.
I found the article a real gem
fortune.com

'Something weird's going on' in the economy as 6 new economic classes take shape, says New York Times bestselling author | Fortune

In the new American economy, the poor own cars, the middle class own homes, and the rich own businesses. Nick Maggiulli, author of "The Wealth Ladder," explains.
fortune.com fortune.com
The wealth assets split by wealth is interesting, also how rich the US middle class actually is.
For reference and based on current figures, in Australia, there are 300k individuals with 1+ Million USD NET worth (1.5m AUD)
"According to the Capgemini World Wealth Report 2025, there are 334,800 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in Australia with investable assets of US$1 million or more, explicitly excluding their main home."
So roughly 1% of aussies, and if using by household (assuming her and him) so less than 1% will have a net worth of 2 million USD.
Compare with the Fortune societal split in the US.we have far far less riches in tge higher middle class
Considering the fact both our average and median wealth are among the highest in the world, the Australian socialist experiment has succeeded to
Avoid dirt poor classes..yes..we can agree
Allow ultra ultra rich class to prosper talking here 50+m plus.the Atlassian,Gina and Palmer level
But disable any higher middle class and just above class to grow.
Probably a reflection on our destruction of industry and taxation of any business.
The reverse compounding effect policy the ATO is engaged in this country which i will summarise at:
Better take 40% of $100 today than 20% of $1000 tomorrow.. because it is fairer😭
Punitive taxation...
I digress
But this paper highlights the challenge and potential for the US as they remain a rich country with a lot of business wealth still there on the ground.
 
qldfrog said:
Not relevant to Trump specifically but relevant to the US of today.
I found the article a real gem
fortune.com

'Something weird's going on' in the economy as 6 new economic classes take shape, says New York Times bestselling author | Fortune

In the new American economy, the poor own cars, the middle class own homes, and the rich own businesses. Nick Maggiulli, author of "The Wealth Ladder," explains.
fortune.com fortune.com
The wealth assets split by wealth is interesting, also how rich the US middle class actually is.
For reference and based on current figures, in Australia, there are 300k individuals with 1+ Million USD NET worth (1.5m AUD)
"According to the Capgemini World Wealth Report 2025, there are 334,800 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in Australia with investable assets of US$1 million or more, explicitly excluding their main home."
So roughly 1% of aussies, and if using by household (assuming her and him) so less than 1% will have a net worth of 2 million USD.
Compare with the Fortune societal split in the US.we have far far less riches in tge higher middle class
Considering the fact both our average and median wealth are among the highest in the world, the Australian socialist experiment has succeeded to
Avoid dirt poor classes..yes..we can agree
Allow ultra ultra rich class to prosper talking here 50+m plus.the Atlassian,Gina and Palmer level
But disable any higher middle class and just above class to grow.
Probably a reflection on our destruction of industry and taxation of any business.
The reverse compounding effect policy the ATO is engaged in this country which i will summarise at:
Better take 40% of $100 today than 20% of $1000 tomorrow.. because it is fairer😭
Punitive taxation...
I digress
But this paper highlights the challenge and potential for the US as they remain a rich country with a lot of business wealth still there on the ground.
Click to expand...
The USA on average has higher taxes when the cost of healthcare insurance is added than Australia if you are middle class and that doesn't include the new tariff taxes.

I read the article and it wasn't nearly as glowing as you stated. They may be 4th tier but due to the dislocation of society they can't afford to live in the gated communities and need to rent. They need to pay for private police forces and have other costs.

We have our problems, sure, but they have bigger ones. We obviously need to improve but we aren't the ones with unsustainable national debt being paid for with a new tax called tariffs.

Americans come here for jobs and they don't go back.
 
Last edited:
If this has already been posted I apologise. If not, have a read it helps explain why the US has no choice.

It’s now getting to the point where the US government’s interest bill alone is over US$1 trillion a year. Paying the interest bill and funding a global defence budget is becoming increasingly difficult. ​

What the crazy/genius Trump is trying to achieve​

The 'exorbitant privilege' of the US dollar as world's reserve currency is coming back to bite it...

If you’re a Trump fan, he’s got a grand plan to Make America Great Again. If you’ve got Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) then he’s an imbecilic madman intent on destroying the world.

Only hindsight will give us the correct answer, so it’s not a debate I’m interested in having.

What is useful, though, is thinking through the implications of what he’s trying to do…assuming we know that much.

I’m sort of qualified on this front as I studied international relations as part of a post-graduate degree many years ago. I really enjoyed the subject and have loosely kept up my interest in the topic over the years.

After the GFC in 2008/09, I spent way too much time thinking the post-WWII financial system was coming to an end. I thought it was only a matter of time before it all blew up.

I was completely wrong. The system had plenty of gas left in the tank.

That was 15 years ago. Now, the tank is getting low on fuel. If the system keeps going in its current form, the US is speeding towards bankruptcy. Not in the traditional way, but in the form of a major crisis.

The Trump administration is creating a ‘mini-crisis’ now to try and prevent that from happening.

The US is the world's consumer of last resort​

To explain, I first need to define what I mean by ‘the system’?

It’s the one where the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. The US economy is the global consumer of last resort. It consumes the rest of the world’s excess production and pays for it with US dollars.

Those dollars pile up in foreign countries in the form of Treasury bonds, the result of taking the trade surpluses and lending them back to the US government.

The physical Treasury bond may sit in another country’s central bank vaults, but the ‘cash’ or capital that purchased it returned to the US to fund excess consumption.

This is why a trade or current account deficit equals a capital account surplus. In effect, producer nations finance US consumption.

US trade deficits started picking up after 1971 when Nixon took the US off the gold standard.

In the 50 years since, these deficits have resulted in outstanding US government debt of around US$36 trillion. Not to mention mortgage-backed security debt, corporate debt and private sector debt.

It’s now getting to the point where the US government’s interest bill alone is over US$1 trillion a year.

Paying the interest bill and funding a global defence budget is becoming increasingly difficult.

Trump says…enough is enough…​

This is the backdrop to the current situation.

Trump wants to cure 50 years of excess US consumption, and the ‘exorbitant privilege/curse of having the global reserve currency, by raising tariffs on every country that the US has a trade deficit with.

Taken at face value, this is crazy.

Why?

Well, in 2024, the US trade deficit was around US$920 billion, while the current account deficit (which includes net income transfers like interest payments to foreigners on government debt) was US$1.13 trillion.

That outflow is a source of liquidity for the rest of the world. But it’s also a source of liquidity for US capital markets. While the liability from the deficits accumulates over time, foreigners reinvest the annual trade and current account deficits back into US capital markets, or the real economy via direct investment.

If they didn’t, their currencies would soar against the US dollar, making them less competitive. In other words, the US dollar would tank against other currencies, making the US more competitive.

But because of the US dollar’s reserve currency status, which provides uneconomic demand for US dollars, this doesn’t happen.

It's better to keep financing the consumer of last resort to buy your stuff, right?

Doing so is fine in the short term, but in the long term, it catches up with us…​

And with the US having accumulated US$36 trillion in Federal debt (not to mention trillions in government-backed mortgage debt and corporate and private sector debt), Trump has said, ‘enough is enough’.

He knows that this system will completely bankrupt the country at some point. So he’s trying to engineer painful change now.

The magnitude of pain will depend on the timeframe. If Trump wants to shrink the trade deficit to zero, we’re talking a very deep global recession. You simply can’t shift a meaningful chunk of global production to the US in the short term.

So, the only way you get trade to balance is via a collapse in consumption.

Now, no one wants that. Not even crazy/genius Trump.

If I had to guess, the ridiculous tariffs levied, and Trump’s acceptance of related market volatility, is shock treatment designed to get countries to the negotiating table and quickly re-order the global trading system.

It’s also about isolating China. Levying a large tariff on China will put downward pressure on its currency and encourage capital outflows. That’s a big headache for the Chinese Communist Party trying to engineer an economic recovery.

This re-ordering of global trade will, over time, result in a structurally lower US trade deficit. This also means less inflow of capital to finance US consumption.

Now this is where it gets interesting…​

Less foreign capital flowing into US capital markets means a weaker dollar, perhaps structurally higher interest rates, and lower asset prices.

Which is where the Fed comes into it.

The Fed will have to step in and provide liquidity to a US banking system that no longer receives an abundant inflow of foreign capital.

What I have just described is a very high level framework for how to think about the potential impact of what Trump is trying to achieve.

My guess is that this will be long-term beneficial for the US and global economy but short-term negative for what has become highly financialised capital markets.

Broadly then, I would favour real assets and quality businesses that sell enduring products over ‘financialised assets’, like banks, private equity and private credit.

I think that is where you want the majority of your capital to be as we head into this ‘new paradigm’.

The crucial point to understand is that this IS a ‘new paradigm’. What we’re witnessing now will go down as a momentous occasion in financial history.

But in the same way that Buffett has endured over the decades with a simple value investing philosophy, as value investors, so will we.

It doesn’t matter what the paradigm is. Good businesses bought at attractive prices will always do well over the long term.
Click to expand...
 
qldfrog said:
Not relevant to Trump specifically but relevant to the US of today.
I found the article a real gem
fortune.com

'Something weird's going on' in the economy as 6 new economic classes take shape, says New York Times bestselling author | Fortune

In the new American economy, the poor own cars, the middle class own homes, and the rich own businesses. Nick Maggiulli, author of "The Wealth Ladder," explains.
fortune.com fortune.com
The wealth assets split by wealth is interesting, also how rich the US middle class actually is.
For reference and based on current figures, in Australia, there are 300k individuals with 1+ Million USD NET worth (1.5m AUD)
"According to the Capgemini World Wealth Report 2025, there are 334,800 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in Australia with investable assets of US$1 million or more, explicitly excluding their main home."
So roughly 1% of aussies, and if using by household (assuming her and him) so less than 1% will have a net worth of 2 million USD.
Compare with the Fortune societal split in the US.we have far far less riches in tge higher middle class
Considering the fact both our average and median wealth are among the highest in the world, the Australian socialist experiment has succeeded to
Avoid dirt poor classes..yes..we can agree
Allow ultra ultra rich class to prosper talking here 50+m plus.the Atlassian,Gina and Palmer level
But disable any higher middle class and just above class to grow.
Probably a reflection on our destruction of industry and taxation of any business.
The reverse compounding effect policy the ATO is engaged in this country which i will summarise at:
Better take 40% of $100 today than 20% of $1000 tomorrow.. because it is fairer😭
Punitive taxation...
I digress
But this paper highlights the challenge and potential for the US as they remain a rich country with a lot of business wealth still there on the ground.
Click to expand...
Its visible in the middle class there that they are better off. In Australia the middle class is nowhere near what it was. Watching people with a $1000 a week mortgage having to work everyday of the week to make ends meet is a joke.

We are fudging figures and have a huge undercurrent of poor that I have never seen at this level before. I can't see a lot of positives for Australia.
 
moXJO said:
Its visible in the middle class there that they are better off. In Australia the middle class is nowhere near what it was. Watching people with a $1000 a week mortgage having to work everyday of the week to make ends meet is a joke.

We are fudging figures and have a huge undercurrent of poor that I have never seen at this level before. I can't see a lot of positives for Australia.
Click to expand...
It's been dubbed the "working poor". People in what you might consider to be gainful employment living like peasants because they're just being bled dry by living expenses.
 
over9k said:
It's been dubbed the "working poor". People in what you might consider to be gainful employment living like peasants because they're just being bled dry by living expenses.
Click to expand...
I have heard comments that the era of AI and large multinationals may usher in a new era of serfdom.
Looking at the amount of homeless it might have some weight.
 

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