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yes the Queensland Government were sooo clever in stalling approvals for New Ackland 3 so NHC moved head office to NSW closer to their major source of income , go figure
NHC - New Hope Corporation
- Thread starter laurie
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interesting i would have tilted the other way .. becauseFrom Market Matters w/e edition:
Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice
Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.marketmatters.com.au
@ShareSuccess
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) or New Hope Corp (NHC)?
Subscriber Question:
"If you had to choose between WHC and NHC, targeting a balance of growth and income which would you pick?
NHC appears to be paying around double-digit dividend yield alone but suspect growth outlook not as fruitful as WHC.
Will WHC’s dividend increase in the coming year, if so does that make it a more compelling investment thesis than NHC?"
Answer:
"Hi Scott,
Short answer is Whitehaven Coal (WHC) that we own in our Active Growth Portfolio, but we do also hold NHC in our Active Income Portfolio.
The answer comes by looking forward as opposed to the present, plus of course we assume coal prices at least hold around their current, already depressed levels:
NHC is forecast to yield ~11% over the coming years from its primarily thermal coal operations, with the company paying out about 85% of its earnings as dividends.
WHC is currently expected to yield ~4.6% over the coming year from its primarily metallurgical coal operation, paying out ~45% of earnings as dividends, though we think WHC will grow earnings and thus dividends at a greater clip in coming years due to their recent acquisitions. We will find out more about future capital management at their FY25 result in August.
In short, WHC is more leveraged to a coal price uptick, making it a higher risk/higher reward, while NHC is investing less, giving more back to shareholders, making it lower risk/lower potential upside. A close call, but WHC gets the nod."
View attachment 200079
1. WHC is more vulnerable to activist disruption ' ( that has been wonderful for me , but not nervous share-holders )
2. although coal output from the new acquisitions will be higher , so will tax write-downs ( in the near term ) so lower after-tax profits ( in the near term )
3. also merging the synergies will disrupt and dilute focus
meanwhile NHC has
1. been given approval to progress New Ackland 3 , allowing for organic growth but at the cost of higher expenditure and ( probable ) lower divs. (in the mid term )
2. NHC is more diverse with port and logistics infrastructure as well as a subsidiary oil producing arm , and has agricultural assets on rehabilitating leases and some IP as a result of that activity , so more organic growth ( pun intended )
3. major shareholder and sometimes 'sugar-daddy ' SOL
Substantial Shareholders List As of 12 Sept 2024
| Name | Share Holding | Shares Held (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Washington H Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd | 331,696,418 | 39.24% |
Current Directors
| Name | Position Name | Date Appt. |
|---|---|---|
| Mr Brent Charles Albert Smith | Non-Executive Director | 03/07/2024 |
| Mr Robert Dobson Millner | Non-Executive Chairman,Non-Executive Director | 04/12/1995 |
| Mr Steven Ronald Boulton | Non-Executive Director | 31/07/2022 |
| Mr Thomas Charles Dobson Millner | Non-Executive Director | 18/12/2015 |
| Mr Ian Malcolm Williams | Non-Executive Director | 03/11/2012 |
| Ms Jacqueline (Jacqui) Elizabeth McGill | Non-Executive Director | 24/06/2020 |
| Ms Lucia Ana Stocker | Non-Executive Director | 03/02/2023 |
add experience and resolve to the board
Director Interest as of Last Notice
| Name | Last Notice Date | Direct Shares | Indirect Shares | Options | Convertibles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr Brent Charles Albert Smith | 01/07/2024 | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Mr Robert Dobson Millner | 25/03/2025 | 279,559 | 6,018,215 | -- | -- |
| Mr Steven Ronald Boulton | 30/07/2024 | 10,000 | -- | -- | -- |
| Mr Thomas Charles Dobson Millner | 20/03/2025 | 21,153 | 5,855,715 | -- | -- |
| Mr Ian Malcolm Williams | 30/07/2024 | 10,000 | -- | -- | -- |
| Ms Jacqueline (Jacqui) Elizabeth McGill | 30/07/2024 | 80,000 | -- | -- | -- |
| Ms Lucia Ana Stocker | 28/02/2025 | 24,901 | -- | -- | -- |
and some directors have plenty of skin in the game to keep the incentive real
but it all depends on what each shareholder ( or intending shareholder ) desires
i hold both companies without investment cash risk
WHC has more potential for patient channel trading ( and so easier to accumulate on the decades )
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based solely on my average buying price NHC is currently up 69% for me
while WHC is up 290% ( thanks to those activists )
while WHC is up 290% ( thanks to those activists )
We have Glencore with -
www.afr.com
and SOL/BKW merger/takeover.
SOL is an almost 40% holder of NHC. Probably just coincidence.
Glencore primes its Australian DirtyCo for local sharemarket listing
Brokers told clients the company’s decision to shift unwanted assets into an Australian subsidiary could lead to a tax-effective ASX spin-off.
and SOL/BKW merger/takeover.
SOL is an almost 40% holder of NHC. Probably just coincidence.
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if Glencore did that .. would Glencore make another attempt at RIO ?We have Glencore with -
Glencore primes its Australian DirtyCo for local sharemarket listing
Brokers told clients the company’s decision to shift unwanted assets into an Australian subsidiary could lead to a tax-effective ASX spin-off.
and SOL/BKW merger/takeover.
SOL is an almost 40% holder of NHC. Probably just coincidence.
BTW if DirtyCo lists on the ASX , i would be running the tape measure over it carefully ( as mid term DirtyCo is liable to be acquisitive )
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'Share In Value' promo to my inbox today. Feel it's fair to include their prefatory blurb:
"Every year, a handful of stocks quietly outperform — before the rest of the market catches on.
This time last year, we spotted two such opportunities:
One for dependable income. One for serious growth.
We delivered them early to our members. Here’s a look at how those calls played out — and why it’s worth being ahead of the crowd.
New Hope (ASX:NHC): Still Paying an 11% Yield
NHC is one of our more recent recommendations — a rare income opportunity that still stacks up today.
While the market was focused on coal prices, we focused on cash flow, margins, and shareholder returns. The result?
It’s still one of the most attractive income stocks on the ASX right now — and we don’t believe the market has fully priced it in."
The turnaround growth stock they say they tipped to subscribers was PNR, gold stock. Will put that part over there.
Held
Accumulate possibly
"Every year, a handful of stocks quietly outperform — before the rest of the market catches on.
This time last year, we spotted two such opportunities:
One for dependable income. One for serious growth.
We delivered them early to our members. Here’s a look at how those calls played out — and why it’s worth being ahead of the crowd.
New Hope (ASX:NHC): Still Paying an 11% Yield
NHC is one of our more recent recommendations — a rare income opportunity that still stacks up today.
While the market was focused on coal prices, we focused on cash flow, margins, and shareholder returns. The result?
- 11% fully franked yield based on the last 12 months
- $805 million in liquidity, zero debt
- $100 million buy-back in motion
- Cost discipline and consistent profitability
It’s still one of the most attractive income stocks on the ASX right now — and we don’t believe the market has fully priced it in."
The turnaround growth stock they say they tipped to subscribers was PNR, gold stock. Will put that part over there.
Held
Accumulate possibly
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Disc: Held
Sentiment: Accumulate if weakness
Question asked by subscriber 21/06/2025
One of anumber of stock specific questions on the w/e
On Weekend Market Matters
marketmatters.com.au
/report/weekend-qa-the-asx-goes-into-holding-pattern-ahead-of-the-eofy/
New Hope Corp (NHC)
"How do you see NHC share price in the medium term? It seems to be drifting down with a languishing coal price.
Do you think the dividend is sustainable which is currently nearly 11%based upon same payout as last year fully franked?
Thank you"
Boon
Answer
"Hi Boon,
"We have discussed coal a few times over recent weeks as the energy sector enjoys a resurgence albeit led by uranium and oil. Victoria’s electricity grid has recently experienced periods where demand exceeded 80% of its capacity, illustrating how much work is still needed to evolve away from coal. VIC is actively working towards its renewable energy targets, aiming for 65% by 2030 and 95% by 2035. However, without sufficient firm capacity, such as energy storage and fast-start gas plants, grid reliability this timeline could prove a pipedream.
At MM while we believe in the transition away from fossil fuels is inevitable, it will take longer than many hope. While we are not expecting coal to scale the dizzy heights of 2022 a bounce back towards the mid-2024 levels feel likely, when NHC was trading above $5.
We see coal prices improving moving forward with a test by NHC of $5 our preferred scenario through 2025/6.
The dividend is obviously a function of the underlying coal price, primarily thermal in the case of NHC, and if we are correct and things are close/or at their nadir then NHC can yield ~10% fully franked in the next 12-months. The consensus forecast for NHC dividends is 22c in October 25, and 19c in April 26, putting it on a yield of 10.38%."
Sentiment: Accumulate if weakness
Question asked by subscriber 21/06/2025
One of anumber of stock specific questions on the w/e
On Weekend Market Matters
Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice
Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au
New Hope Corp (NHC)
"How do you see NHC share price in the medium term? It seems to be drifting down with a languishing coal price.
Do you think the dividend is sustainable which is currently nearly 11%based upon same payout as last year fully franked?
Thank you"
Boon
Answer
"Hi Boon,
"We have discussed coal a few times over recent weeks as the energy sector enjoys a resurgence albeit led by uranium and oil. Victoria’s electricity grid has recently experienced periods where demand exceeded 80% of its capacity, illustrating how much work is still needed to evolve away from coal. VIC is actively working towards its renewable energy targets, aiming for 65% by 2030 and 95% by 2035. However, without sufficient firm capacity, such as energy storage and fast-start gas plants, grid reliability this timeline could prove a pipedream.
At MM while we believe in the transition away from fossil fuels is inevitable, it will take longer than many hope. While we are not expecting coal to scale the dizzy heights of 2022 a bounce back towards the mid-2024 levels feel likely, when NHC was trading above $5.
We see coal prices improving moving forward with a test by NHC of $5 our preferred scenario through 2025/6.
The dividend is obviously a function of the underlying coal price, primarily thermal in the case of NHC, and if we are correct and things are close/or at their nadir then NHC can yield ~10% fully franked in the next 12-months. The consensus forecast for NHC dividends is 22c in October 25, and 19c in April 26, putting it on a yield of 10.38%."
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I'll be at break even soon if this keeps up - yippee - dividends too.
Whitehaven same.
Held
Holding
DAILY
Whitehaven same.
Held
Holding
DAILY
@finicky
Good morning bloke, should NHC hit $4.50 today (23/07/25) rcw1 sell order will trigger ... captured the last fully franked dividend ... cool bananas
Kind regards
rcw1
rcw1 likes @finicky "young man" comment is the nicest thing anybody has said to rcw1 for long time...
Coin already pledged elsewhere bloke ...
rcw1 on way to the track in Townsville. At the track tomorrow for the Townsville Cup, the favourite Smart Legand will be hard to beat, anyways, enough digressing, hope you make millions bloke, on NHC.
Kind regards
rcw1
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Seems acceptable to me. Q4 results impacted by drag from Bengalla mine where adverse weather and logistics issue (related to weather and rail haulage crew shortage). Also obviously sales prices down. But FY25 group production strong.
My rough calc* on FY25 market cap to underlying ebitda ratio = 5x multiple, and that's for a bad year from extraneous causes.
*market cap yesterday = $3.826 billion. FY25 underlying EBITDA = $765m.
So far so good for @rcw1
Held
Holding
My rough calc* on FY25 market cap to underlying ebitda ratio = 5x multiple, and that's for a bad year from extraneous causes.
*market cap yesterday = $3.826 billion. FY25 underlying EBITDA = $765m.
So far so good for @rcw1
Held
Holding
Agree, given the weather and logistics problems they did well to fall over the line with their FY25 production guidance producing10.7Mt, presume they are still aiming for 14Mt by 2028.
EV/EBIDTA is a respectable 4.1 (also rough)
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Asked by a subscriber on Weekend Q&A for three current choice picks from MM's Income p/f, Market Matters opted for ANZ, APA, and NHC of which they said,
"New Hope Ltd (NHC) – perhaps the surprise pick here for some with the coal miner's FY25 results due on the 16th of this month but with a 22c fully franked divided expected in October, putting the stock on a 9.2% yield over the coming year there’s plenty of “fat in the sandwich” from an income perspective."
Held
Holding
marketmatters.com.au
"New Hope Ltd (NHC) – perhaps the surprise pick here for some with the coal miner's FY25 results due on the 16th of this month but with a 22c fully franked divided expected in October, putting the stock on a 9.2% yield over the coming year there’s plenty of “fat in the sandwich” from an income perspective."
Held
Holding
Weekend Q&A: US Jobs Report raises more questions than it delivers answers - Market Matters
Weekend Q&A: US Jobs Report raises more questions than it delivers answers Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations
marketmatters.com.au
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NHC @ $4.65 up 6%
FY25 results out
Controlling and improving what they can operationally, pretty much the same as Whitehaven.
Earnings metrics down, but NPAT down 8% when realised average sales price down 17% is being accepted by the market.
Free Cashflow actually up slightly
Final dividend of 15c ff is down on FY24 final div of 22c. Still a robust yield. Ex date 22 September.
Held
Holding
FY25 results out
Controlling and improving what they can operationally, pretty much the same as Whitehaven.
Earnings metrics down, but NPAT down 8% when realised average sales price down 17% is being accepted by the market.
Free Cashflow actually up slightly
Final dividend of 15c ff is down on FY24 final div of 22c. Still a robust yield. Ex date 22 September.
Held
Holding
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Greg Canavan's update today on NHC
Fat Tail Investment Advisory
New Hope reports solid result
"Coal miner New Hope Corp [ASX:NHC] reported a good result today. While pressure from lower coal prices, poor weather and logistics challenges was evident, higher production across the group and lower costs offset much of the damage.
Heavy rains in the final quarter of the year affected the Bengalla mine (which accounts for most of NHC’s production) and surrounding transport infrastructure. As a result, saleable coal production declined 2% year-on-year. However, cash costs fell 2%, a great result given the circumstances.
Overall production growth came from the continuing ramp-up of the New Acland mine, which increased saleable coal production by 180% to 2.8 million tonnes. You might recall that New Acland had its own logistical challenges during the third quarter of the financial year.
Today, the company reported that:
‘In the last quarter of the 2025 financial year, New Acland Mine benefitted from an improved rail performance as a result of increased haulage performance, additional site stock capacity and the release of additional track pathing by the rail network operator.’
The result was clearly better than expected. At the time of writing, the stock price is up around 7.5% to $4.69. That’s the highest price since February. A healthy final dividend of 15 cents, fully franked, is no doubt providing some momentum."
Held
Holding
Fat Tail Investment Advisory
New Hope reports solid result
"Coal miner New Hope Corp [ASX:NHC] reported a good result today. While pressure from lower coal prices, poor weather and logistics challenges was evident, higher production across the group and lower costs offset much of the damage.
Heavy rains in the final quarter of the year affected the Bengalla mine (which accounts for most of NHC’s production) and surrounding transport infrastructure. As a result, saleable coal production declined 2% year-on-year. However, cash costs fell 2%, a great result given the circumstances.
Overall production growth came from the continuing ramp-up of the New Acland mine, which increased saleable coal production by 180% to 2.8 million tonnes. You might recall that New Acland had its own logistical challenges during the third quarter of the financial year.
Today, the company reported that:
‘In the last quarter of the 2025 financial year, New Acland Mine benefitted from an improved rail performance as a result of increased haulage performance, additional site stock capacity and the release of additional track pathing by the rail network operator.’
The result was clearly better than expected. At the time of writing, the stock price is up around 7.5% to $4.69. That’s the highest price since February. A healthy final dividend of 15 cents, fully franked, is no doubt providing some momentum."
Held
Holding
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Missus last night talking about investments (who has been thus far uninvolved)... Can you invest in coal? Can we do that?
Me:
Me:
