Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[sptrawler]

It's not the rich who will pay to move manufacturing to the US, it's the poor by paying multiple tariffs on everyday living expenses, and then Trump gives the rich large tax breaks. Trump is never going to crap on the people that funded his campaign to get him in the white house.

Trump's already gone to the trouble of defunding any agency that helps workers with rights, so they can be exploited by large corporations even further. Elon had govt agencies after him for unfair dismissal, and Trump went after the agencies.

The populace will be led by the carrot while the rich line their pockets. Nothing has changed from previously; it's just a different scenario.

Well the U.S has gone from about 20% of the worlds manufacturing output to about 15%, in the last 7 years.

Meanwhile China is up to about 32% of the world's manufacturing output and are now outsourcing output into Vietnam and Thailand etc.

In about 5-10 years time when the U.S is down to 5 % the EU and the rest of the West is down to near 0%, let's see how that goes for today's young workers in the Western countries.

The populace is being led by the carrot for sure, the carrot that letting things keep going will be o.k, rather than saying there is no gain without some pain.

Tariffs will hurt, if people want to buy cheaper imported goods, rather than pay for goods produced in their own country.

That's why our fruit and seafood is sent overseas to be packaged, then sent back to Australia, it's cheaper.

What a great way to build your country and just think of all the extra pollution in the transporting, well done sunshine, all the best.

 

[basilio]

Another view on the situation is that the billionaires realise the current world order is going to collapse. They don't see any government as a safe harbour. In that view they are looking out for themselves as independent self sustaining kingdoms.

The establishment of bolt holes in New Zealand. On the oceans. Down disused ICBM shafts. Perhaps in particular regions where they believe they can control access. Check out the range of options available. And these are just the ones in this story.

Billionaire boltholes: inside the doomsday hideouts of the super-rich

From lavish estates to luxury bunkers, discover the remote properties the world's billionaires including Mark Zuckerberg and Larry Ellison run to when disaster strikes

uk.finance.yahoo.com

 

[qldfrog]

I thought a vote for Trump and MAGA ideology was supposed to be a vote against elitism and the mega rich, drain the swamp ?.

It is, and the left still does not understand, worldwide, that they are the tool of the globalist ultra rich barons, whose vision and nearly achieved aim would make China look like a freedom beacon....
They want to occupy and burn wall street, but cry and blame if the market falls, and then if it rises, it is bloody Trump inside trading.

 

[over9k]

Trump hasn't done all that, indeed he's had absolutely nothing to do with most of it. He's just the political face of the change in much the same manner as Reagan, Thatcher or locally Hawke were last time around. The shift's already inevitable, the underlying triggers to force it have already occurred, it's just been a question of whether someone grabbed the reins and did it voluntarily or whether it became a forced situation on the financial side.

My point there isn't political but rather, it's that there's no going back. Even if Trump resigned as President right now, even if he dies, that'd really be little different to if Raegan, Thatcher or Hawke had resigned. The broad shift is still going to occur, all that'll change will be the detail.

QFT from smurf.

Meanwhile:



I keep harping on about this for a reason. They tried letting inflation run hot to erode the debt and it was political suicide. So now they're trying tariffs.

You cannot just borrow money in perpetuity without consequence. You can't.

 

[over9k]

Samsung made in South Korea 10% import tariff, why would the U.S company like that?

Instability in asia = supply of chips or whatever threatened (or cut off) = can't make phones = can't sell phones = can't make money

Companies were already moving their supply chains back to being on-location so to speak, as I keep saying, trump's just accelerated (in a very messy way) that process.

 

[sptrawler]

Another view on the situation is that the billionaires realise the current world order is going to collapse. They don't see any government as a safe harbour. In that view they are looking out for themselves as independent self sustaining kingdoms.

The establishment of bolt holes in New Zealand. On the oceans. Down disused ICBM shafts. Perhaps in particular regions where they believe they can control access. Check out the range of options available. And these are just the ones in this story.

Billionaire boltholes: inside the doomsday hideouts of the super-rich

From lavish estates to luxury bunkers, discover the remote properties the world's billionaires including Mark Zuckerberg and Larry Ellison run to when disaster strikes

uk.finance.yahoo.com

Why not just sort out the world order, so that processing and manufacturing is carried out where it is the most efficient?

Where raw materials are processed to the point where it has been carried out, with minimal transport, maximum processing at the least ecological and emission cost.

Then it is converted into a consumable, depending on its market, in the closest area to where it is going to be used, but also taking into consideration the ecological and emission cost.

EG don't make fridges in Greenland and don't ship iron ore, LNG, metallurgical coal from Australia, to make Australian steel in China.

 

[qldfrog]

Why would the Billionaires and multinationals want to change things?

Why would they have backed Trump, if he wants to make the billionaires and multinationals lose money?

Why would the billionaires and multinationals want to make stuff in the U.S, when they are making it in third World countries using cheap labour?

What would be the point for the multinationals and the billionaires?

Why would the media support Trump, if it meant the companies that pay the media for advertising, will probably lose money, if they either have to move manufacturing back to the U.S, or lose money due to tariffs?

Can someone please explain why the multinationals, billionaires, or the media would be backing Trump.

I mean really.

But as you say @Smurf1976 the wheels are in motion and the penny is dropping, the Western countries have to change, the globalisation era is over, the West has milked it to death, now it's time for change.

Before it's too late IMO.

In which world are you living, looks very different from mine,?

Can someone please explain why the multinationals, billionaires, or the media would be backing Trump.

Billionaires fought Trump to the end as did multinational, Elon being the lone exception as he could not care less about money vs vision.
As for media backing Trump ..are you serious?
Fox news maybe ..and that's it.
I am waiting for another evil Murdoch reference,not from you, but usual susoects, which the left has for ever been parroting without realising that Murdoch has been the key ALP support in the last decade here.....
Note:
You seem to understand the conflicting issues so not sure about your quote..if irony, theoretical question..
Anyway have all a great night

 

[over9k]

Why not just sort out the world order, so that processing and manufacturing is carried out where it is the most efficient?

This is what globalisation did. It enabled the world to combine, say, australian raw materials with engineering blueprints from the USA to make products in china.

But that trade depends on a security apparatus/geopolitical stability that the yanks have been footing the bill for for decades until the cold war ended and then for themselves post cold war reference ensuring their own oil supply that everyone else just piggybacked off of and now that the cold war is over and they have their own oil supply sorted because of the invention of fracking they don't need to spend $zillions as the world's police any more.

Hence the whole world increasing military expenditure as the yanks reduce theirs (see: nato funding for an example) and the private sector returning to a build-where-you-sell type of business model.

Again, this was all going to happen whether the bull (orangutan) was let into the china shop or not.

 

[sptrawler]

Instability in asia = supply of chips or whatever threatened (or cut off) = can't make phones = can't sell phones = can't make money

Companies were already moving their supply chains back to being on-location so to speak, as I keep saying, trump's just accelerated (in a very messy way) that process.

Agree 100%, just using it as an example, the West is just in a vortex down the S bend, unless it actually gets off its ar$e.

Now most in the West think our life is normal, my parents left the U.K in the early 1960's, W.A was a hell hole but was better than Yorkshire that's why Dad left.
But when we arrived here in W.A in 1965 there was no mining boom, we trapped rabbits and Mum had a 100 rabbit recipes. LOL
Dad had a good job as an Instrument tech and moved to mining towns when they opened, but today everyone thinks this lifestyle always was. always will be, well trust me it won't be.

 

[sptrawler]

This is what globalisation did. It enabled the world to combine, say, australian raw materials with engineering blueprints from the USA to make products in china.

But that trade depends on a security apparatus/geopolitical stability that the yanks have been footing the bill for for decades until the cold war ended and then for themselves post cold war reference ensuring their own oil supply that everyone else just piggybacked off of and now that the cold war is over and they have their own oil supply sorted because of the invention of fracking they don't need to spend $zillions as the world's police any more.

Hence the whole world increasing military expenditure as the yanks reduce theirs (see: nato funding for an example) and the private sector returning to a build-where-you-sell type of business model.

Again, this was all going to happen whether the bull (orangutan) was let into the china shop or not.

Not exactly, globalisation outsourced, processing, value adding and manufacturing, to the lowest cost country, without considering the efficiency or ecological, emissions cost of it, only the cost saving of it.

As is being proven now in Indonesia with the processing of pig nickel and the acid leaching and coal supplied energy to produce it, no one cared then and no one cares now, as is shown on this forum.

Its all about optics and feel good about what people say, but in reality outcomes come second to how much someone likes the person.

 

[TimeISmoney]

In which world are you living, looks very different from mine,?


Billionaires fought Trump to the end as did multinational, Elon being the lone exception as he could not care less about money vs vision.
As for media backing Trump ..are you serious?
Fox news maybe ..and that's it.
I am waiting for another evil Murdoch reference,not from you, but usual susoects, which the left has for ever been parroting without realising that Murdoch has been the key ALP support in the last decade here.....
Note:
You seem to understand the conflicting issues so not sure about your quote..if irony, theoretical question..
Anyway have all a great night

15 of the wealthiest people in the US, were all at the Trump inauguration, right behind him. Muskrat, Bezos, and Zuckerburg to name a few.

You can't tell me that if they despised Trump that they would be there in the first place.

 

[sptrawler]

15 of the wealthiest people in the US, were all at the Trump inauguration, right behind him. Muskrat, Bezos, and Zuckerburg to name a few.

You can't tell me that if they despised Trump that they would be there in the first place.

No doubt they were behind the Democrats, last time around IMO.

Look TimesMoney, you go with whatever you think and I hope it works out well, but I don't see a big future for our Uni kids in technology when we wont have many companies that develop technology.

We are importing tradespeople, but still making it hard for kids to leave school at 15 to start apprenticeships, because the Governments don't employ tradespeople anymore and businesses want kids that are old enough to drive.

The West is stuck in a time warp, thinking they are the leading light of world society, when in reality they are the overweight ones eating popcorn while the third world eats their lunch.

 

[over9k]

Not exactly, globalisation outsourced, processing, value adding and manufacturing, to the lowest cost country, without considering the efficiency or ecological, emissions cost of it, only the cost saving of it.

As is being proven now in Indonesia with the processing of pig nickel and the acid leaching and coal supplied energy to produce it, no one cared then and no one cares now, as is shown on this forum.

Oh absolutely. Unions have been pointing this out for decades, it's little wonder it's cheaper to do things overseas when you can just dump the rubbish in the ocean.

I'm not saying globalisation was good bad or otherwise, I was just pointing out what was occurring re: how global trade worked.

 

[sptrawler]

Oh absolutely. Unions have been pointing this out for decades, it's little wonder it's cheaper to do things overseas when you can just dump the rubbish in the ocean.

I'm not saying globalisation was good bad or otherwise, I was just pointing out what was occurring re: how global trade worked.

So true, i remember in the 1980's when globalisation and offshoring our manufacturing while reducing tariffs was going on, the guys in the workshops would say, how the hell can we compete with their wages.
But it kept happening and everyone hoped they could score a Government job. lol
By the way at the time in the 1980's the unions were onboard with it, Bill Kelty was working with the Government of the day to modernise and restructure our economy into the globalised future, where companies that couldn't compete with third world challengers adapted or perished.
Those that adapted moved their operations offshore, those that didn't mostly perished.
That era is finally coming to a close, the West has spent all the money gained from their currency advantage, now times are tightening our currency is devaluing against industrialising third world currencies.

 

[TimeISmoney]

No doubt they were behind the Democrats, last time around IMO.

Look TimesMoney, you go with whatever you think and I hope it works out well, but I don't see a big future for our Uni kids in technology when we wont have many companies that develop technology.

We are importing tradespeople, but still making it hard for kids to leave school at 15 to start apprenticeships, because the Governments don't employ tradespeople anymore and businesses want kids that are old enough to drive.

The West is stuck in a time warp, thinking they are the leading light of world society, when in reality they are the overweight ones eating popcorn while the third world eats their lunch.

What you've described is what happens when you give too much power to the Elite. Why are they going to apprentice a 15 year old when they've got access to an already trained person who will work for the base rate and make a profit from day one?

Making a chair that cost $2 in China for $100 here isn't going to help anyone.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Oh absolutely. Unions have been pointing this out for decades, it's little wonder it's cheaper to do things overseas when you can just dump the rubbish in the ocean.

What do you think they did here in the industrial years, or maybe you're not old enough to be around?

 

[sptrawler]

What you've described is what happens when you give too much power to the Elite. Why are they going to apprentice a 15 year old when they've got access to an already trained person who will work for the base rate and make a profit from day one?

Making a chair that cost $2 in China for $100 here isn't going to help anyone.

That's exactly right and kids are kept at school to year 12, when they can't manage on apprentice wages, so we import trained people and recognise overseas qjalifications, because we can't train our kids and then our kids go to uni to do a degree in a useless pathway that leads to a debt and little job prospects.
Magic, the clever country, just keep saying it and people will believe it.

 

[over9k]

What do you think they did here in the industrial years, or maybe you're not old enough to be around?

The same thing, but then environmental groups had it stopped (and I'm not saying they were wrong) so the industries just moved to where they could do it.

If the environmental regs added, say, 12% to the cost of production then there should have been a corresponding 12% tariff put in place but there wasn't, so the industries just moved.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, trump states he has no intention of getting rid of powell and markets moon in response.

Comical.

 

[over9k]

AND NOW:



Remember that post I made about national debt and the deafening silence from the treasury secretary?

Markets are soaring on almost every word of this guy. He's actually outlining everything in that much more mature/managed way I was referring to earlier. Demonstrating his competence/maturity basically.

So yeah. Markets are flying now they've been reassured that trump hasn't just filled his administration with fellow orangutans.