Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[divs4ever]

"Meant to". Where are the new jobs? Of course Trump would be to blame if the new jobs aren't materialised.

In his defense, he never stipulated the jobs would be located in America....

Mexico's Sheinbaum Counters Trump Deportations With Tens of Thousands of Jobs for Returned Citizens

The country's leading business group announced that over 200 companies have made 63,880 job vacancies available

www.latintimes.com

there will be SOME new jobs , but they might not be 'jobs for life ' the workers to prepare/build new factories or clear out/renovate abandoned buildings , workers to make/install new machinery and robotics

on the positive side the increased demand might last for 10 years .. and don't forget the upgrading of roads, rail and bridges they will need more frequent repairs/upgrades

 

[JohnDe]

So when Americans cry out for the government to intervene on their behalf to keep their overpaid jobs that somehow isn't social liberalism? Please.

He then goes on to say that the same politics that have electesd these "revolutionaries" to office, reliably restrict their powers 2 years after the fact. So this rubbish not only doesn't last, it is reliably neutered by the electorate!

The absolute last thing we need are private organisations ("Project 2025" and the like) dictating public policy.

America is not some inheritely superior political beast because of their origin.
They are where they are because the entire world was thrown into turmoil post WW2 and the globe decided to cede monetary powers to the US.

Australia has become a country with a majority brainwashed mentality. We think it’s ok to pay 47% in the dollar tax rate, we think that our tax dollars are being well spent, we are happy to have our major information source controlled by union members, we’re happy to shut our borders and lock up people trying to get to family.

Born against that same protector, Americans in 1776 connected their freedom to its defeat. This initial burst of revolutionary fervour has no analogue in the Australian experience. Indeed, in the US, political authority has faced recurrent challenge. In Australia, we like to be told what to do. Our larrikinism is quaint, mostly exaggerated and collapsed when public health officials locked us down in 2020-21.​

​

I often encounter inner-city Melburnians sentimental for this government overreach, who think it underreach. Some still wear masks as acts of Covid nostalgia. Our safety is the principle demand we make of government.​

 

[finicky]

This man is a genius. The way he reduces something so complex into one simple but powerful statement. If I had a hat it'd be off. I've left a bio snippet below if you want to chase up some more of his thoughts. @basilio



"Richard David Wolff (born April 1, 1942) is an American Marxian economist known for his work on economic methodology and class analysis. He is a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and a visiting professor in the graduate program in international affairs at the New School. Wolff has also taught economics at Yale University, City University of New York, University of Utah, University of Paris I (Sorbonne), and The Brecht Forum in New York City.

In 1988, Wolff co-founded the journal Rethinking Marxism."

 

[Smurf1976]

The usa was the only major industrial economy that did not have the **** bombed out of them during WW2.
UK , Germany, Japan, and some other parts of Europe were bombed.

Another factor here was technological change.

Coming in was the age of oil, the internal combustion engine, cars, trucks, highways and petrochemicals.

Going out was the age of coal and steam power in industry, the dominance of railways and so on.

The USA was the dominant country at that point with the new thing, versus Britain having been dominant in the age of coal and steam engines.

In my view it's not a coincidence that the peak of UK coal mining was shortly followed by the peak of the British Empire and that the country dominating oil technology, the USA, rose to the top. The two resources and the technology relating to their extraction and use have been extremely important to both countries.

Hence no surprise that Trump's keen on oil production.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

This man is a genius. The way he reduces something so complex into one simple but powerful statement. If I had a hat it'd be off. I've left a bio snippet below if you want to chase up some more of his thoughts. @basilio



"Richard David Wolff (born April 1, 1942) is an American Marxian economist known for his work on economic methodology and class analysis. He is a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and a visiting professor in the graduate program in international affairs at the New School. Wolff has also taught economics at Yale University, City University of New York, University of Utah, University of Paris I (Sorbonne), and The Brecht Forum in New York City.

In 1988, Wolff co-founded the journal Rethinking Marxism."

huge vomitburger from me

 

[TimeISmoney]

there will be SOME new jobs , but they might not be 'jobs for life ' the workers to prepare/build new factories or clear out/renovate abandoned buildings , workers to make/install new machinery and robotics

on the positive side the increased demand might last for 10 years .. and don't forget the upgrading of roads, rail and bridges they will need more frequent repairs/upgrades

What Trump is trying to do is a total fantasy; they would have to reset their whole economy, devalue the dollar and pay people $5/hr to make it work. Either that or they would need to subsidise manufacturing, and who is going to pay for that in the end?

This is like watching the US economy step out in front of a moving bus.

 

[Smurf1976]

What Trump is trying to do is a total fantasy; they would have to reset their whole economy, devalue the dollar and pay people $5/hr to make it work. Either that or they would need to subsidise manufacturing, and who is going to pay for that in the end?

The question I'll ask is what's the alternative?

If not manufacturing then what, exactly, is the alternative to balance trade?

It's either produce more or consume less, the only question being what to produce more or consume less of, and how to get people to accept that.

Australia ultimately faces the same dilemma. Not immediately, but bottom line is our top exports aren't sustainable meanwhile population is rising.

There's also the question of how was it done historically? Go back two generations, ~60 years, and the US did indeed have a thriving manufacturing sector and that was in a time of drastically lower productivity in manufacturing than is the case today. Despite that Americans had houses, they had cars, heck they even had air-conditioning and colour TV long before the rest of the world had those things.

GDP might've been lower back then when measured in funny money aka USD, but it looked pretty good when measured against tangible things such as housing, cars and the ability to afford ordinary consumer purchases.

If it was doable then, why isn't it doable now?

 

[TimeISmoney]

This man is a genius. The way he reduces something so complex into one simple but powerful statement. If I had a hat it'd be off. I've left a bio snippet below if you want to chase up some more of his thoughts. @basilio



"Richard David Wolff (born April 1, 1942) is an American Marxian economist known for his work on economic methodology and class analysis. He is a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and a visiting professor in the graduate program in international affairs at the New School. Wolff has also taught economics at Yale University, City University of New York, University of Utah, University of Paris I (Sorbonne), and The Brecht Forum in New York City.

In 1988, Wolff co-founded the journal Rethinking Marxism."

What happened to the billions of dollars of debt for the mansions and yachts that people walked out on without much consequence?

Most of the national debt is owned by the US in anycase (about 70%), that bloke is just a **** stirrer. Even China has trillions in national debt.

 

[over9k]

Alternatively it's just a tax increase dressed up as a whole bunch of other shite.

 

[TimeISmoney]

The question I'll ask is what's the alternative?

If not manufacturing then what, exactly, is the alternative to balance trade?

It's either produce more or consume less, the only question being what to produce more or consume less of, and how to get people to accept that.

Australia ultimately faces the same dilemma. Not immediately, but bottom line is our top exports aren't sustainable meanwhile population is rising.

There's also the question of how was it done historically? Go back two generations, ~60 years, and the US did indeed have a thriving manufacturing sector and that was in a time of drastically lower productivity in manufacturing than is the case today. Despite that Americans had houses, they had cars, heck they even had air-conditioning and colour TV long before the rest of the world had those things.

GDP might've been lower back then when measured in funny money aka USD, but it looked pretty good when measured against tangible things such as housing, cars and the ability to afford ordinary consumer purchases.

If it was doable then, why isn't it doable now?

I don't think there's a simple answer to what you're asking.

The US used to be the first to make things, they were able to lure talent and labour for a low price in the form of immigrants, and the rest of the world was in an ice age when it came to new development and innovation. They had a huge jump start on other economies after the war, but the advantages are slowly diminishing.

Things have changed when you can manufacture something elsewhere for 1/8 of the price, and the world is more educated and connected than what it was 60 years ago. With the current tech, it's much easier to trade and deal with foreign countries than it was years ago, which has opened up the markets.

Tough pill to swallow for most, but people are going to have to start living within their means; it's the Ponzi debt that got them into trouble in the first place, maybe it's kept them in the top position longer than they would have been without it. Empires rise, peak, decline and fall like many others have in the past. Trump doesn't have a real plan, just bluffing his way along and then you'll see bigger problems emanate from the US.

 

[JohnDe]

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @JohnDe . The youtube reiterates the risks presently of an economic worldwide recession because of both the USA and China tariffs. Fortunately just in the last 24 hours the Chinese appear to be acting in a more mature manner and have dampened the rhetoric and stated that it will be business as usual re exports and have adopted a "let's see what happens" attitude.

The Americans are behaving true to form for this administration and continue to try and change the topic before the next ad-break. They are hostages to their entertainment and news industries and need to "feed the chooks" as the last great leader Australia has seen, Joh Bjelke Petersen used say about reporters.

China has been ramping up their military drills and practising their manpower transports just south of Taiwan on mainland beaches using barges and landing craft which can be used for both civilian and military purposes. I believe this is just to intimidate Washington in trade negotiations rather than a threat to Taiwan's parlous safety. The Americans don't deserve to win if it comes to war but probably will because of existing strength and military assets and control of satellites and communications.

I don't see it coming to a war, there is too much to loose for the winner, an important calculation which Putin the Russian intellectual midget failed to take in to account in his Ukraine folly. I enclose an article from news.com.au from a few days ago which gives a reasonable summary both from an economic and war situation and an intimation of where Lachlan Murdoch stands in relation to backing Trump. My contacts in New York tell me that ole Rupert is just about down to playing ping pong with Biden (remember him) using bubbles from their drool rather than balls. Lachlan has as much interest in keeping the stock market viable via his investments both in News and other stock to prop his joint up as do the rest of us. Enjoy the article.

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/transfer-hundreds-of-vehicles-ashore-chinas-invasion-barges-seen-practising-for-war/news-story/766b8c52b25615ce66c4a7e0b87e5080

gg

 

[waterbottle]

Australia has become a country with a majority brainwashed mentality. We think it’s ok to pay 47% in the dollar tax rate, we think that our tax dollars are being well spent, we are happy to have our major information source controlled by union members, we’re happy to shut our borders and lock up people trying to get to family.

Born against that same protector, Americans in 1776 connected their freedom to its defeat. This initial burst of revolutionary fervour has no analogue in the Australian experience. Indeed, in the US, political authority has faced recurrent challenge. In Australia, we like to be told what to do. Our larrikinism is quaint, mostly exaggerated and collapsed when public health officials locked us down in 2020-21.​

​

I often encounter inner-city Melburnians sentimental for this government overreach, who think it underreach. Some still wear masks as acts of Covid nostalgia. Our safety is the principle demand we make of government.​

Poor governance is not a uniquely Australian thing - we shouldn't look to America to emulate and reference their politics.
COVID was a global problem - it's not like the Americans weren't under lock down.
In fact, if you want to mold Australian politics according to a nation's ability to resist unjustified lockdowns, why not use the Swedes as a reference? (They never locked down at all).

My point is, America's history is irrelevant. The modern (political) American has nothing of value. Their history is a narrative that satiates them. When was the last time you saw an American exercise "freedom"?

 

[JohnDe]

Poor governance is not a uniquely Australian thing - we shouldn't look to America to emulate and reference their politics.
COVID was a global problem - it's not like the Americans weren't under lock down.
In fact, if you want to mold Australian politics according to a nation's ability to resist unjustified lockdowns, why not use the Swedes as a reference? (They never locked down at all).

My point is, America's history is irrelevant. The modern (political) American has nothing of value. Their history is a narrative that satiates them. When was the last time you saw an American exercise "freedom"?

And my original point was for investors to analyse the information coming from news outlets carefully and take into account the differences between the US and Australia.

As for Covid, yes it was a global phenomenon, and Australian states closed their borders and arrested or charged citizens trying to cross borders to get home or visit relatives.

And your point about American history being irrelevant misses my original point point, see first paragraph.

We are using an investment forum, investing is not just about what feels right, it’s about using information and historical data.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

https://www.dhl.com/au-en/home/important-information/2025/shipments-to-the-united-states-with-a-customs-value-exceeding-usd-800.html

.
DHL Express has announced that it will be temporarily suspending the delivery of packages worth US$800 or more to the United States, following a significant increase in “red tape” with customs and import control as a result of recent worldwide tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald J. Trump

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Mr. Trump is winding himself up to fire Mr. Jerome Powell the head of the Fed. This will have a big effect on the currency markets with the USD falling imo to heretofore unimaginable levels. I'm moving much of my IBKR $USD cash back in to $AUD. Only time will tell if it was the correct move. See the "Gold heading" for it's potential effect on gold and other PM's.

White House is studying whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell can be fired, top adviser says

President Donald Trump has escalated his attacks on the US’s top central banker this week.

www.semafor.com

gg

 

[deadone]

Mr. Trump is winding himself up to fire Mr. Jerome Powell the head of the Fed. This will have a big effect on the currency markets with the USD falling imo to heretofore unimaginable levels. I'm moving much of my IBKR $USD cash back in to $AUD. Only time will tell if it was the correct move. See the "Gold heading" for it's potential effect on gold and other PM's.

White House is studying whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell can be fired, top adviser says

President Donald Trump has escalated his attacks on the US’s top central banker this week.

www.semafor.com

 

[farmerge]

A blank screen what's that mean!!!!??????

 

[deadone]

i have a bet with my wife that the $aud will be worth 72 cents against the $usd by april 2026

 

[sptrawler]

https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/all-cars-could-be-chinese-in-australia-by-2040-the-rise-and-rise-of-mg-byd-gwm-geely-ldv

But is it too far-fetched to think all cars will be Chinese within the next 20 years? Or is it naive not to see it as a strong possibility?