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Will the All Ords get down to 4769?


We may have to re-visit those gun laws if chaos looms....



AJ
 
The might of deleverage!

It is pretty clear, the only reason our indexes were and are at values they are at due to the abundance of cheap money in the past.

Buy CFDs, buy on margin, sell the house and pump the money into super tax free, borrow against the house and buy shares ...

How, they'll go to where their fair values and people should consider themselves lucky to stop at 4769
 

Great post,

Nice to see someone get the order in the correct manner! US down spills to europe china, china slows down affects us! great great great could not agree more!

I have always yelled sometimes screamed, don't worry about China, the buck stops with America! that card falls, down comes the house. (slowly we hope)

Good trading to u Buffettology.
 
Right now this volitility has me watching and waiting. Not holding anything
If we break through this 5400 area we may just see 4800.
Just being a pessimist.
Could today be the bottom?
 
Could today be the bottom?

I'm wanting to believe it is, so this 50% theory stands up!

But, this chart borrowed from another post suggests we are nowhere near the bottom, and suggests we are in the fear stage ...
 

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I'm wanting to believe it is, so this 50% theory stands up!

But, this chart borrowed from another post suggests we are nowhere near the bottom, and suggests we are in the fear stage ...

As I posted in that other thread, not necessarily - if you use logarithmic price scaled XAO all AllOrds charts (as I believe you should when considering that sentiment/price graph as posted), then it looks like we are well and truly in the middle of the capitulation, maybe even the despair phase. I certianly hope this is the case!!!

Anyone care to comment on that point? Ie Log vs Linear scaled charts when using the posted sentiment chart? I think it is a critical and important point. If you use a linear chart then the linear "mean" line represents ever diminishing returns into the future, which does not seem correct - therefore I reckon the posted sentiment chart implies a log price/value scale.

Cheers,

Beej
 

Bump... All Ords at 4,754.20

Can't imagine that today will mark the end of the Bear, so where to from here? 3436?
 

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I'd say we are in the start of the despair phase, maybe 1-3 days before it pops back up.

Now I think alot hinges on the oil price now, will it get below $90 or was today the worst of it. When you get the oil price and bad financial news feeding off each other on the same day, it certainly hammers the share price lower. The commodity and oil price needs to stabilize as well.

Now unless there's a heap more bad news I'm unaware of, I'd say that for the quality companies, they couldn't get too much lower. But there are always exceptions, especially if a bit of extra panic sets in and feeds off itself driving the market as a whole lower.

Either that or these turning points are simply extra rungs on the ladder down to despair. There's not too many indices that you can measure which haven't already turned down lately it seems.
 
So, are you calling a bottom for quality stock, deadset?

That seems a very brave call...

Interesting the definition of "quality stock" too! It wasn't that long ago that the likes of Allco, Centro, Babcock and Brown, and many others would have been thought of as quality stock. Best for another thread I think.

In the context of this thread though, does anybody know how this 50% theory is supposed to pan out from here? The originator of this thread, galey seems to have made his last post on Feb 17 this year...

If the truth be known, 3436 doesn't seem that unrealistic. It's far from over in the US, so outside of a small bounce, surely there is a lot more pain to come for those still invested in this market...
 
Not to sure about how the 50% rule/whatever is supposed to pan out, but today could definately be the bottom, just like any other day.
We're at a good on the chart to see a bottom. I hopeing it is the end of the plummeting bear, It's been a while and I've been out of the market for sometime.
 
Split opinions so far...

Some are calling the bottom is here - or abouts...
Whilst others are calling the bottom yet to come...

So, can someone put up a poll and see what the general concesus is?

I'm thinking this is not the bottom.. but what do i know.. i'm nett long on some 'quality blue chips'...
 
When we do reach the real bottom...I don't think anyone can confidently call it. We won't know until after the fact.
 

Yes Pat, today is definately the bottom, for today, hehehe... But I, like you, have been out of the market for so long that I'm am also getting a bit itchy. I think when you are figuring when to re-enter, two things definately come to mind. Firstly, if you think a stock is worth entering at $35 on a downtrending market, why wouldn't you make a mental note to buy in on the way up through $35. In the meantime, the stock may go to $24 before it bottoms, and you could grab it at $26 or $27 on the way through, thus saving you a packet in stress and cash. Secondly, I believe the first sign of a recovery from this Bear market will show in the recovery of the US housing market.

When we do reach the real bottom...I don't think anyone can confidently call it. We won't know until after the fact.

Exactly... With what has transpired over the last nearly 12 months now, and people picking bottoms at every resistant level. There was a bottom from mid March that rallied nearly 1000 points, but here we are 1400 away from that rally, and I'm only seeing the news getting worse! I'm happy to stay out until the trend is clear....
 
Am i looking at this the wrong way, or should we presume the NAB dividend and all banking pay outs will fall dramatically which is why the banks are getting smashed?

if nab can keep a dividend of $2 per year, your looking at 9 %...

its whether or not they cut their pay out dividends....
 
The All Ords finished today at 4769. Who are you - Nostradamus?

That's freaky! I hadn't noticed... Ok now the next prediction!

It will not close on 4769 for at least another 5000 years, give or take a couple of months...
 
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